Top boxoffice hits of Summer 2011 (new and revised!!)

[brevity]

I personally don't think a movie should count if it opens before Memorial Day weekend, but that's just me. So, in my book, none of these early ones should be in contention. Hangover 2 should be the first, as it opens MD weekend.

Hollywood used to agree with you. Then Spider-Man opened the first weekend of May 2002 with nearly $115M in box office. Things changed.

Take a look at the all-time May openers here. Looking only at the films released before 2002, and setting aside the Memorial Day weekend releases, there's not much there.

[bjornolf]

Hollywood used to agree with you. Then Spider-Man opened the first weekend of May 2002 with nearly $115M in box office. Things changed.

Take a look at the all-time May openers here. Looking only at the films released before 2002, and setting aside the Memorial Day weekend releases, there's not much there.

Further proof that I'm a dinosaur.

[Udaman]

Hangover 2 is in trouble. Only 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's not going to give it the repeat audience that it wants. I predict it opens around $80M...and finishes around $180M or so. That won't be good enough.

Meanwhile, Kung Fu Panda 2 is at 73% on Rotten tomatoes. There are no other kids movies until Cars 2. This one will be a lock for $200M plus. It's making the top 5

And Bridesmaids just keeps on keeping on. It's at $64M now and is handily beating Thor on both a daily basis and per screen basis (trouncing it on that level). Thor's about to get dropped at a ton of theaters...Bridesmaids will not. I still say this show could catch and pass Thor. It's going to end at $175M or so when all is said and done. My wife saw it the other night, and the theater was full, and howling. Everyone after was saying how much they enjoyed it. Word of mouth just keeps it going, and soon it's going to land on EWeekly and have more articles about how well it keeps doing, which will just make more people go see it.

Will see Hangover 2 tonight. Kung Fu Panda next weekend.

[JasonEvans]

Hangover 2 is in trouble. Only 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. That's not going to give it the repeat audience that it wants. I predict it opens around $80M...and finishes around $180M or so. That won't be good enough.

Meanwhile, Kung Fu Panda 2 is at 73% on Rotten tomatoes. There are no other kids movies until Cars 2. This one will be a lock for $200M plus. It's making the top 5

I think you are underestimating Hangover II's opening weekend. It will pass $100 million, probably easily. There is a ton of pent-up demand for this film -- there hasn't been a good adult comedy in ages. I also think the word of mouth won't be that horrible, despite the mediocre reviews. It still has some tremendously funny scenes -- a few of which are iconic enough so that people will feel like they need to see it so they won't be left out of the conversation when people are talking about the film. It is still a pretty strong contender for Top 5, IMO.

I am at a loss to explain the good reviews for Panda. I hated it and, in my quick poll of other adults in the theater, we all hated it. Still, the kids under 8 are going to drive business big-time on this one. I too think it makes $200 million... but maybe not quite the $230-$250 million it needs to reach the top 5.

--Jason "I am hearing a lot of positive buzz for XMen: First Class... I see that on Tuesday" Evans

[cato]

There is a ton of pent-up demand for this film -- there hasn't been a good adult comedy in ages.

Is there really that much pent up demand to see an adult comedy? If we are going to go to the trouble of getting a baby-sitter and spend ungodly amounts of money at the theater, we want to be positive that we will have a good time. If we aren't sure, we'll just wait until we can watch it at home.

Comedies generally fit nicely into the watch-at-home category (the size of the screen does not correlate with the size of the laugh). The only thing that would get us into a theater to watch a comedy would be extraordinarily good word of mouth.

Then again, I probably won't see any movies in the theater this summer, except Potter.

[JasonEvans]

Is there really that much pent up demand to see an adult comedy?

Hollywood tracking figures (surveys done of which films people plan to see and when they plan to see them) show Hangover II tracking far better than Pirates 4. Almost everyone is forecasting a $100+ million 4-day weekend.

-Jason "it will likely be the biggest opening ever for an R-rated film" Evans

[Udaman]

But bad reviews can kill a movie...and this one is getting them. I just saw it, and will post on the other thread....but I don't see any chance at all of this movie to get to $200M. It will not happen.

[JasonEvans]

My weekly column for the Wall Street Journal focuses on Hangover II and its boxoffice prospects --

Hollywood has been excited for this film for a while because the original was so popular with the key 18-35 year old demographic that has been mostly missing from theaters thus far this year. The fact that many young adults have not had a film to get excited about in a while has led to tremendous pent-up demand for “The Hangover” sequel. Hollywood tracking figures show audiences are much more excited about “The Hangover Part II” than they were about “Pirates of the Caribbean 4,” partly because “Pirates 3″ was so disappointing, but also because there is a real hunger for this film.

...

The real question is will those poor reviews translate into bad word-of-mouth. It would be really bad news for Hollywood if “The Wolfpack” brought 18-35 year olds back to theaters only to disappoint them. But, there are plenty of examples of poorly-reviewed films doing well with audiences. CinemaScore, which survey’s audiences after they see a movie, says “The Hangover Part II” scored a pretty strong A-minus from its opening night audience. Perhaps more importantly, it scored an A-plus from viewers under 18, which may indicate it is going to play really well with younger audiences who often see movies multiple times if they like them.

-Jason "I am betting it is at about $115 million after Memorial Day is done" Evans

[JasonEvans]

But bad reviews can kill a movie...and this one is getting them. I just saw it, and will post on the other thread....but I don't see any chance at all of this movie to get to $200M. It will not happen.

Wanna bet?

It is gonna be at $110-$120 million by Monday. The notion that it won't get to $200 million after a $100 million opening is sorta absurd.

-Jason "now $250 mil may be tough, but $200 is gonna happen unless I have wildly underestimated the opening weekend" Evans

[Udaman]

The poor word of mouth will really hurt this movie after the weekend. On Yahoo...you can't even sort the comments by "Most Recent" which means they have some deal to keep the bad reviews from popping up (which is pretty lame...but not too surprising).

I still think $200M is going to be tough. The repeat viewers just won't be there. Trust me, this one falls 60% percent in the 2nd weekend. At least.

[JasonEvans]

The poor word of mouth will really hurt this movie after the weekend. On Yahoo...you can't even sort the comments by "Most Recent" which means they have some deal to keep the bad reviews from popping up (which is pretty lame...but not too surprising).

I still think $200M is going to be tough. The repeat viewers just won't be there. Trust me, this one falls 60% percent in the 2nd weekend. At least.

Except CinemaScore, which is remarkably accurate when it comes to gauging public reaction to a film, gave it a fairly good A-minus and it scored a very impressive A-plus among the under 18 demographic. That tells me that this film may play really well with the younger audience and darn near every college-aged male in America is going to go see it.

I don't think you really understand the ramifications of an opening as big as this one is going to be in terms of total boxoffice.

No film to earn $86 million or more at the boxoffice its opening weekend has failed to make $200 million in total boxoffice. X-men: Wolverine, which opened at $85 million and ended up with $179.8 million in total boxoffice, is the only film to open with more than $75 million and not make more than $200 million total.

If, as most expect, Hangover: Part II is in the $90-$100 million range for its opening weekend, you are saying it is going to be one of the all-time biggest post-opening flops to say it will not reach $200 million. I just don't think that will happen.

-Jason "wanna bet sigs? You dictate my sig and I dictate your sig for two weeks if it makes/misses $200 million" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Ok, I am hearing early estimates that Hangover: Part II is going to do between 87 and 90 million for the 3-day weekend (Friday thru Sunday). That is a huge number considering how much demand was siphoned off with the Thursday opening.

So, when you add that to the 31 million it earned on Thursday, you get it at about $120 million through Sunday with the Monday holiday likely adding at least another $10 million or so. Lets put it at $130 million thru Monday, which may be a fairly conservative estimate.

Now, lets say it does a paltry $5 million per day on Tuesday - Thursday (which is what Pirates 4 did, and Hangover is looking much bigger than Pirates so far). That would put it at $145 million coming into its second weekend. Again, I think that is likely a conservative estimate.

Lets pretend the second weekend is a total disaster, a drop of 60% from opening weekend. It would still do like $35 million that weekend, putting it at $180 million after 2 weekends.

If we forecast a paltry $2 million per day during that next week, a 60% drop from the previous week, and then another 60% drop its third weekend (which would mean a $14 million weekend), that would take it over $200 million at the end of weekend #3.

Again, that is a disaster scenario where it tanks 60% in weekend 2 and another 60% in weekend three. And that is not even the end of its run. If it then starts to leave theaters rapidly it would still figure to make $15 - $20 million more before it is finished.

-Jason "trust me, don't take my bet " Evans

[JasonEvans]

-Jason "I am betting it is at about $115 million after Memorial Day is done" Evans

I was way off.

I am now hearing it is going to be in the $135-$140 million range by the time Memorial Day is done. That would give it one of the 20 biggest first 5 days in Hollywood history.

Every single film to make $135+ million in its first 5 days has made at least $280 million in total boxoffice.

--Jason "I now believe that Hangover: Part II will almost certainly be in our top 5 of summer" Evans

[davekay1971]

I'm going to end up siding with Jason on the big projections for Hangover 2. Several of my friends have now seen the movie, and every one of them loved it. It seems the critics panned it for retreading the same ground as the original...for people seeing it, the perception is that, by being the same concept all over again, it gave them just what they wanted. Basically the fans like it for exactly the same reason the critics don't.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm going to end up siding with Jason on the big projections for Hangover 2. Several of my friends have now seen the movie, and every one of them loved it. It seems the critics panned it for retreading the same ground as the original...for people seeing it, the perception is that, by being the same concept all over again, it gave them just what they wanted. Basically the fans like it for exactly the same reason the critics don't.

There used to be a comic critic with the Dallas paper (Billy Bob Something), who wrote some of the funniest film reviews ever -- he loved Drive-In type movies.

You just reminded me of his comment about sequels, something along the lines of "If you're going to make sequel, be sure to MAKE THE SAME DAMN MOVIE, because that's what the people who liked the first one want to see."

Apparently, the Hangover team took his advice to heart.

Late addition: I just googled Billy Bob at the Drive-in and found that I was slightly off: His name was Joe Bob Briggs. He has a website for his reviews and commentary:

http://www.joebobbriggs.com/

Second addition: I couldn't help rediscovering a favorite. For a sample of Joe Bob's work, check out his review of the 1992 classic "Malcolm X":
http://www.joebobbriggs.com/index.ph...lm-x-1992.html

[JasonEvans]

The semi-official numbers are in and there are 2 big stories this weekend.

1) The Hangover: Part II is a major hit. Warner Bros says it made $86.5 million from Friday to Sunday, the biggest opening ever (by a lot) for any adult comedy. Warner says Hangover: Part II will be at about $137 million after Memorial Day is done, a huge 5-day figure. It will likely end up as the #17 or #18th biggest film in history after 5 days (current #17 is Shrek the Third with $137.8 mil).

2) Kung Fu Panda II is struggling. It only made $48 million over the weekend and will be at $68 million once Memorial Day is done. That is $15-20 mil below what many boxoffice analysts had expected. The vast majority of movies that open around $48 million end up making about $170-$200 million in total boxoffice. Kung Fu Panda II is a child/family flick, which should help it to bigger than usual weekday numbers and should give it reasonably long legs, but it is very hard to see this flick getting to the $225 or $250 million it will need to be in the Top 5 of summer.

Here is what the standings look like thru Sunday--

1. Fast Five - $196.0 mil (does not count in our contest)
2. Thor - $159.7 mil (won't make the Top 5)
3. Pirates 4 - $152.9 (will pass Thor by Wednesday)
4. Hangover II - $118.1 (will be the biggest of any film currently in theaters)
5. Bridesmaids - $85 mil (big hit, but won't be big enough to get to $200 mil)
6. Kung Fu Panda II - $53.8 mil (needs really long legs or it is toast)

-Jason "I will update the standings after we have final figures for Monday/Memorial Day" Evans

[Greg_Newton]

I'm going to end up siding with Jason on the big projections for Hangover 2. Several of my friends have now seen the movie, and every one of them loved it. It seems the critics panned it for retreading the same ground as the original...for people seeing it, the perception is that, by being the same concept all over again, it gave them just what they wanted. Basically the fans like it for exactly the same reason the critics don't.

Yeah, I saw it today, and I really don't get it the negative reviews. Hangover 1 was one of the most commercially successful and positively reviewed comedies of the decade. Hangover II was basically the same movie with same characters, just in new hilarious situations with new jokes. How is that a bad thing? If you liked the first one, you'll like the second. If not, you won't. What were the critics expecting?

Hell, I'll watch ten sequels if they keep putting them in entertaining new places and scenarios. It's such a great core group of characters and concept, it's kind of like a serial comedic TV show - you don't need to fundamentally change anything from episode to episode to keep it funny.

[wavedukefan70s]

Yeah, I saw it today, and I really don't get it the negative reviews. Hangover 1 was one of the most commercially successful and positively reviewed comedies of the decade. Hangover II was basically the same movie with same characters, just in new hilarious situations with new jokes. How is that a bad thing? If you liked the first one, you'll like the second. If not, you won't. What were the critics expecting?

Hell, I'll watch ten sequels if they keep putting them in entertaining new places and scenarios. It's such a great core group of characters and concept, it's kind of like a serial comedic TV show - you don't need to fundamentally change anything from episode to episode to keep it funny.

Pirates of Caribbean was good not spectacular but worth the three bucks.so was the hangover.i wish i wouldn't have fell asleep during thor.wasn't my kind of movie plus i was tired.i did get my three dollars out of it though.kungfu panda is next.i go to the local theater once or twice a week during the summer.

[Udaman]

When you say "worth the 3 bucks" do you mean transportation costs to the theater (with some kind of free ticket), or are you somehow managing to watch these movies back in 1984.

(still think Hangover 2 is going to crash and burn moving forward, and that most everyone who wanted to see it has, and won't then go see it again. Could, and most likely, will be wrong)

[wavedukefan70s]

When you say "worth the 3 bucks" do you mean transportation costs to the theater (with some kind of free ticket), or are you somehow managing to watch these movies back in 1984.

(still think Hangover 2 is going to crash and burn moving forward, and that most everyone who wanted to see it has, and won't then go see it again. Could, and most likely, will be wrong)

No the local theater is only 3.25 before five pm for 2D movies.3D movies are 5.75. after 5 they are7.75 i think.prices haven't changed much at that theater in 25 years or so.they went up a dollar when they changed location.also its free refills on popcorn and drink.its really a good deal.seats are a little small . its always packed.you have to get there early.http://events.postandcourier.com/sum...emark-movies-8