Top boxoffice hits of Summer 2011 (new and revised!!)

[brevity]

I don't know if I buy the cop-out that you used to avoid listing The Phantom Menace. Whatever time line you use, it was the fourth Star Wars film (and it destroyed the franchise).

Hmm. I'm not sure you can call it a cop-out when the purpose of the list is to show, generally, what a bad idea it is to make that 4th film in a series. The poll, should I ever do one, would ask for the best ones anyway, not the worst.

So I'm not defending or protecting The Phantom Menace -- it's a lousy film that has two good ideas:

1. The Sith has exactly two members; no more, no less. A casual comment that has retroactive meaning (to the audience) for Return of the Jedi, back when we wondered why The Emperor, Darth Vader, and Luke Skywalker couldn't rule as a triumvirate.

2. The title, which is underwhelming as a stand-alone film, but makes sense by the end of Episode II. If the Emperor wanted to rid the galaxy of Jedi, he'd have to create a necessity for a droid army by planning some sort of fake threat... oh.

If anything, I would want to protect my thread from The Phantom Menace. I think movie fans have dumped on it enough -- it's a sore subject for a lot of people that takes over any Internet thread -- and I'd prefer they redirect their frustration to a wide variety of other incompetent 4th film endeavors.

Other thoughts on your response: Emma Watson's Hermione was always more attractive than J.K. Rowling's Hermione. The Yule Ball scene doesn't make a lot of sense to me because the transformation/makeover isn't all that dramatic. "Is that... Hermione Granger?" Well, yeah, after five minutes of makeup and a nice dress.

Thanks for sharing your short list of the 4th installments you liked. My take:

4th Films I Had No Interest in Seeing (Vast)
4th Films I Saw, But Did Not Like (Significant)
4th Films I Saw and Liked (Tiny)

Star Trek IV has some sentimental value, and still holds up compared to other films in that series, in that time. And when I revisited the 20+ Bond films a few years ago, Thunderball fared better than Goldfinger (a film far more influential than good). I couldn't pick out Police Academy 4 in a station lineup, but I'll give it a few points because Michael Winslow was still doing his thing.

ETA: Completely forgot about Rocky IV! Don't know how that happened. My favorite part is at the end, when Rocky uses his acceptance speech to tell the Gorbachev character to "tear down this wall." I think that's what happened; my memory may be fuzzy.

[moonpie23]

i am really looking forward to cowboys and aliens...that looks like an exciting ride...


here's the 2nd trailer


http://www.imdb.com/video/imdb/vi2016976153/

[Udaman]

It's obviously very early...but Thor is in trouble. It's opening day take was $26M according to Box Office mojo. They are estimating that it will then open somewhere in the $60M range. For Thor...that's awful. It will have a good 2nd week, but then fall dramatically with Pirates over Memorial. This one is looking like $170-$180M tops....and that won't be anywhere near good enough for Top 5....might not even be top 10.

[moonpie23]

no star...

iron man had a moxie star in RDJ....and spider man was just way cooler than a mythical norse god...


when it comes to comic book heroes, thor readers were in the WAY small minority....

[davekay1971]

no star...

iron man had a moxie star in RDJ....and spider man was just way cooler than a mythical norse god...


when it comes to comic book heroes, thor readers were in the WAY small minority....

No star...yet. It won't end up helping Thor's BO take, but Chris Helmsworth has star written all over him. Now that Russell Crowe's gotten fat, Helmsworth can be the new Aussie stud in town, lol.

So much for my pick of Thor making the top 5. I was thinking the early release date with relatively little competition and the generally positive reviews would give it more opening weekend punch. Now, unless it gets great word-of-mouth at this point to give it a huge 2nd weekend and some stamina when POTC4 comes out, Thor's going to finish mid to upper 100s. Maybe they shoulda had Natalie Portman in a medieval bikini...oh wait, that didn't help Your Highness, did it?

[moonpie23]

No star...yet. It won't end up helping Thor's BO take, but Chris Helmsworth has star written all over him.

totally agree...and sometimes, you get a role that's not what it's cracked up to be. (success wise)...

but i do think chris will be a big star...

[moonpie23]

well, i guess everyone waited to go see it....but it sure caught up...

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment...ng/?test=faces

[Olympic Fan]

It wasn't on our list, but I mentioned it in an earlier post in this thread -- Mel Gibson's "The Beaver" went into limited release last weekend and absolutely bombed --

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_859248.html

Now, it wasn't going to show up in the top 10 box office for the weekend with just 22 theaters, but the dreadful per-theater take (and remember, these were carefully selected for maxium receptiveness) make it a pretty sure bet that the film is going to be a monumental flop.

Of course, that's no surprise -- before the summer, I thought the two surest bets were that Harry Potter would be the summer's biggest hit and that a movie staring a racist, abusive pseudo-Christian (I'm talking about the actor, not the character) talking through a hand-puppet would be a movie that only Eric Cartman could love.

[Udaman]

We might have our first dark horse...Bridesmaids. It is at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is extremely solid. I saw it last night, and there are several parts that are just laugh out loud funny...and it actually has a soul. Yeah, it's a bit been there, done that...but Wiig pulls it off, and comes across as extremely believable.

Women will love this show. So too, will men.

This is going to break $100M when all is said and done, and I bet it does great over the next few weeks with good word of mouth.

I highly recommend it to everyone.

[davekay1971]

I think X-Men First Class could really surprise. The third X-men movie made $234M five years ago...and it was a really bad movie.

I initially turned my nose up at First Class because I was so ticked at X-Men 3 (whatever the actual title was) for completely screwing up the amazing Dark Phoenix storyline. I mean, they managed to botch that almost as badly as Daredevil botched Frank Miller's epic Bullseye-Electra-Kingpin story. It's really really hard to take source material that good and screw it up that badly.

Then I saw the First Class trailer with Michael Fassbender as Magneto. Now, just like that, I am very, very interested.

PS: Dear Stan Lee: can you take the Frank Miller Wolverine miniseries and turn that, verbatim, into a movie? Thanks.

[JasonEvans]

Ok, we've had a couple weekends of the summer season and it is time to assess some early returns.

I held off on declaring Thor dead in the water after its opening weekend only did $65 million. I mean, $65 mil is a good figure and if the film showed it was going to have long legs then it still might be a contender for the $250 mil or so that it will take to reach our top 5.

But, this weekend saw it slip to $34.5 million, a drop of 47.5%. That is a good figure for most films, and is a clear indication that Thor is getting some decent word-of-mouth, but the figures just don't look strong enough to make Thor a real contender for the Top 5 of summer. Thor currently sits at a boxoffice total of $119.2 million. I think it will probably end up in the $190ish kinda range when all is said and done.

Interestingly, even though it was not included in our pool because it opened a week too early, it now looks like Fast Five is going to finish around $200 million. It made another $19.5 mil this weekend and stands at $168.7 mil.

Bridesmaids did a stronger-than-expected $24.4 million. Most analyst had expected it to be more like a $20 million opening. Bridesmaids also appears to have good word-of-mouth. Still, the odds that it can climb to even $150 million would seem slim.

The competition really heats up this coming week as Pirates of the Carib 4 opens. The next week brings Hangover II and Kung Fu Panda II.

--Jason "to the 14 people who voted for Thor... thanks for playing but you won't be going 5-for-5" Evans

[theAlaskanBear]

Ok, we've had a couple weekends of the summer season and it is time to assess some early returns.

I held off on declaring Thor dead in the water after its opening weekend only did $65 million. I mean, $65 mil is a good figure and if the film showed it was going to have long legs then it still might be a contender for the $250 mil or so that it will take to reach our top 5.

But, this weekend saw it slip to $34.5 million, a drop of 47.5%. That is a good figure for most films, and is a clear indication that Thor is getting some decent word-of-mouth, but the figures just don't look strong enough to make Thor a real contender for the Top 5 of summer. Thor currently sits at a boxoffice total of $119.2 million. I think it will probably end up in the $190ish kinda range when all is said and done.

Interestingly, even though it was not included in our pool because it opened a week too early, it now looks like Fast Five is going to finish around $200 million. It made another $19.5 mil this weekend and stands at $168.7 mil.

Bridesmaids did a stronger-than-expected $24.4 million. Most analyst had expected it to be more like a $20 million opening. Bridesmaids also appears to have good word-of-mouth. Still, the odds that it can climb to even $150 million would seem slim.

The competition really heats up this coming week as Pirates of the Carib 4 opens. The next week brings Hangover II and Kung Fu Panda II.

--Jason "to the 14 people who voted for Thor... thanks for playing but you won't be going 5-for-5" Evans

Slightly off-topic because this is not a part of the domestic gross discussion important for our competition...but Kung Fu Panda II is going to have huge international legs. I was in Argentina when the first movie came out and it was universally loved by young, college aged students, and older Argentinians. I know for a fact 80% of the people I knew in Buenos Aires are going to have their butts in the movie seats for the sequel.

[Deslok]

If you want a really tough challenge(since guessing the top 5 for the summer in the US has proven so easy ) trying figuring tops including overseas hauls. Just to give you some idea about how different things can be, here is the top 10 movies from 2009 in the US with haul in millions:
1. Avatar 749
2. Transformers 402
3. Harry Potter 301
4. Twilight New Moon 296
5. Up 293
6. Hangover 277
7. Star Trek 257
8. Blind Side 255
9. Alvin & Chipmunks II 219
10. Sherlock Holmes 209

As compared to the international top 10:
1. Avatar 2021
2. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 690
3. Harry Potter 632
4. 2012 603
5. Up 438
6. Transformers 434
7. Twilight New Moon 413
8. Angels and Demons 352
9. Sherlock Holmes 315
10. Terminator Salvation 246

2 of the top 5 internationals don't appear on the top 10 domestic. Trying to figure what's going to be big, accounting for reliance on dialog, what will be dubbed, what will be subtitled, etc as well as cultural norms and the like... make it very tough. And I'm happy when I get 4 of the 5 domestic ones right.

[JasonEvans]

Initial boxoffice returns show Pirtaes 4 making $90 million its opening weekend. That is a good figure, but not a great one if it wants to be in the Top 5 of summer. It is about 10-15 million less than most boxoffice analysts had expected. As you may have noted, the reviews were pretty mediocre, but I am hearing that the "word of mouth" viewer polls are fairly decent.

I'll have more on this tomorrow when the figures are final.

-Jason

[Udaman]

$90M it is. As JE said, that's not nearly as good as everyone thought, and the reviews have been really, really bad.

Still, it's Memorial Day weekend coming up...and the only new movie coming out to compete is The Hangover (Panda 2 could steal some kids...but it's really more for those 12 and under). I bet Pirates pulls in $$80M between now and next Monday...which will put it at $170M...and looking at a final haul of around $225-$240M.

That's probably good enough for top 5. Maybe not...but probably.

Meanwhile, Bridesmaids keeps doing well. It only fell 20% from last weekend, and keeps getting great word of mouth. This one might very well catch Thor before it's all said and done (will be tough...but could happen. Thor is going to freefall from here on out, while I bet Bridesmaids only falls 15% next weekend, if that).

[JasonEvans]

$90M it is. As JE said, that's not nearly as good as everyone thought, and the reviews have been really, really bad.

Still, it's Memorial Day weekend coming up...and the only new movie coming out to compete is The Hangover (Panda 2 could steal some kids...but it's really more for those 12 and under). I bet Pirates pulls in $$80M between now and next Monday...which will put it at $170M...and looking at a final haul of around $225-$240M.

That's probably good enough for top 5. Maybe not...but probably.

Meanwhile, Bridesmaids keeps doing well. It only fell 20% from last weekend, and keeps getting great word of mouth. This one might very well catch Thor before it's all said and done (will be tough...but could happen. Thor is going to freefall from here on out, while I bet Bridesmaids only falls 15% next weekend, if that).

Bridesmaids will fall more than 15%. It gets some very serious competition this comign week in Hangover II. If you are in the mood for a comedy, Bridesmaids was your only option. That will not be true this weekend.

On the other hand, it is possible that Bridesmaids has sapped away some of the demand for a good adult comedy. As a result, Hangover II may not open quite as strong as it would have if there had been nothing like that on the market for months.

Even though the reviews were bad for Pirates II, the word of mouth is not awful. I don't think we will see it tank 55%+ next weekend. I could still see it getting to $250 mil, though it may come up a little bit short of that mark. It will be a strong contender for the Top 5, though likely will be #5 if it makes it.

Most Boxoffice analysts are blaming the poorer than expect showing on residual disgust over how bad At World's End was. They are saying that moviegoers felt ripped off by At World's End and many are done with the franchise as a result.

Anyway, ridiculously early and somewhat meaningless at this point, but here are the Summer Boxoffice standings so far--

1. Fast Five - $186.2 mil (should this count?)
2. Thor - $145.4 mil
3. Pirates 4 - $90.1 mil
4. Bridesmaids - $59.5 mil

--Jason "Pirates 4 should pass Thor in less than a week" Evans

[brevity]

1. Fast Five - $186.2 mil (should this count?)

Interesting question. One could argue that if it ends up in the top 5, it should count as a film that tried to stretch the summer season by opening in the last week of April. And someone could have selected it as an "Other" option.

That said, it is, by this thread's intent, not a summer film. Even if it were the biggest film of the year, it did not open between May and Labor Day, making it qualify about as much as Alice in Wonderland did last year.

Doesn't matter. In a few weeks it'll be a moo point.

[bjornolf]

Interesting question. One could argue that if it ends up in the top 5, it should count as a film that tried to stretch the summer season by opening in the last week of April. And someone could have selected it as an "Other" option.

That said, it is, by this thread's intent, not a summer film. Even if it were the biggest film of the year, it did not open between May and Labor Day, making it qualify about as much as Alice in Wonderland did last year.

Doesn't matter. In a few weeks it'll be a moo point.

I personally don't think a movie should count if it opens before Memorial Day weekend, but that's just me. So, in my book, none of these early ones should be in contention. Hangover 2 should be the first, as it opens MD weekend.

[Olympic Fan]

I think the guidelines of the poll were pretty clear -- the "Summer Movie Season" started with Thor on May 6th.

I don't think Fast and Furious should count -- even if it does finish in the top 5.

But that's just my opinion

[JasonEvans]

I think the guidelines of the poll were pretty clear -- the "Summer Movie Season" started with Thor on May 6th.

I don't think Fast and Furious should count -- even if it does finish in the top 5.

But that's just my opinion

Yup-- so let it be written... so let it be done.


--Jason