Top boxoffice hits of Summer 2011 (new and revised!!)

[dball]

Went with

Thor
POTC 4
Super 8
Transformers 3
Harry Potter

Thor gets the 2 week head start and it's been favorably reviewed. Three sequels seem like good bets based on past success. Super 8 is getting a lot of buzz.

Green Lantern could be intriguing. If the superhero, Star Wars, fantasy lovers all accept, it might surprise.

(As always no brain cells were harmed in making these selections.)

[JasonEvans]

So far, 34 people have voted in the poll. I think many of us, like me, are waiting until the last minute to vote so we can have as much information as possible about the candidates.

The consensus picks so far are: HP 7.2 (91.1% of votes cast), Cars 2 (76.4%), Pirates 4 (73.5%), and Transformers 3 (58.8%). They are the four films above 50%. Hangover II and Kung Fu Panda II (each at 38.2%) are the next highest vote getters.

The Superhero movies are not doing well. So far, Thor (17%) is the superhero film we see as most likely to reach the top 5. XMen: First Class (2.9%) and Captain America (2.9%) are getting only the feeblest of support. Green Lantern is yet to get a single vote.

Among the non-sequels, we like Super 8 the best. It is getting 29.4% of the vote, a pretty good number. Of course, some people have said that Super 8 is the long-lost sequel to ET, so maybe it should not count in this category

Apparently, few of us are willing to bet upon Don Rickles frog voice. The Zookeeper is one of 3 films getting nil votes. The others are Green Lantern and Rise of the Apes. I am not sure how many of you have seen the Rise of the Apes trailer, but it looks simply awesome. I am eager to see this film... but I think the August release date will make it very hard for it to reach the levels of our other summer films.


--Jason "more later..." Evans

[brevity]

Green Lantern is yet to get a single vote.

I already mentioned the dearth of Earth in the trailer I saw, but Green Lantern has two other things going against it.

1. Its release date, June 17, is sort of wedged in between more appealing or established offerings. It's like every other film had already been scheduled, and it got the last pick. Well, either it or Captain America, which probably has the worst release date.

2. It is a crime against nature for an actor to play more than one superhero.* Ryan Reynolds has already played a superhero in another franchise -- he was Deadpool in X-Men Origins: Wolverine. (Not sure if you count Blade: Trinity in all this.) Halle Berry can tell you that violation of this rule does not bode well for Green Lantern, or Johnny Storm's Captain America for that matter.

*In case you're wondering, I think Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury) gets a pass. He only voiced his first superhero, Frozone in The Incredibles, and Unbreakable wasn't really a superhero movie.

[Udaman]

So I'll start with the no brainer. Harry Potter. Will make the most money of summer. Period.

Next I'll go with the three I didn't put in, but really wanted to: Thor, Super 8 and Cowboys v. Aliens. I was ALL set to call Thor a huge bust...but then the reviews started coming in...and they are great. 93% fresh. That's huge. I was absolutely not going to go see it, and now I absolutely will due to these reviews. It also has no competition for 2 weeks. None. It's going to be sitting at $175M before Pirates comes out...which is an amazingly strong number. But I just can't see it catching the other 5 (see below).

Super 8 is the movie I'm most excited about...but I think it will fall into an odd category of who goes to see it. It's a kid story...yet scary. It's aliens...yet family. Still, I think it's going to get great reviews. They hype is huge.

Cowboys v. Aliens will be great as well. Maybe the 2nd biggest anticipated movie for me. Neat story. Neat idea. Just too late in the summer.

So, what else got my votes:

Pirates - too big a franchise not to succeed. Comes out on Memorial Day, and then has no real competition for the teenage kids until X-Men. Actually, I'm most worried about this one making it, because X-Men and Super 8, and Green Lantern will all target their audience. Still, if it gets good reviews at all, it will crush.

Transformers - this is like Twilight. It will do well, even if the reviews are awful (see the 2nd movie)...and this one has a supposed better plot, and the goal of those involved to make a movie better reviewed than the first one. And once it comes out, there's no competition for the teenage boys for a while.

Cars 2 - kids movie, with great characters, and no other animated competition until July 15th (which means it will rule the 4th of the July).

Kung Fu Panda 2 - ditto. My kids love this franchise now. It comes out May 26th, with no real kid competition until Cars 2. This one is a lock.

As for the movies that I think can surprise - Winnie the Pooh and Bridesmaids top the list (both will beat several on this list). I also think Rise of the Planet of the Apes will do really well, and could break $200M. Personally, I'm also excited for Fright Night (which is a remake of what I think is the best vampire movie ever made).

Movies that will disappoint? Starts and ends with Captain America. This has HUGE BUST written all over it.

Finally, I'm really excited to see both the Hangover 2 and Green Lantern...but I don't think either have a chance to make the top 5. The Hangover seems too much like the first, and that needed the perfect ingredients to do as well as it did (it just kept getting bigger and bigger each week through word of mouth...that won't happen this time). Green Lantern is one of my favorite characters...but I worry they'll mess it up.

Can't wait for the season to kick off on Friday!

[Duvall]

Super 8 is the movie I'm most excited about...but I think it will fall into an odd category of who goes to see it. It's a kid story...yet scary. It's aliens...yet family.

Not sure I follow. There have been some fairly successful PG science fiction adventure films over the years.

[Udaman]

Because I'm far too big a geek for this kind of stuff....here's my top 10 predictions

10. Hangover 2 - $165M
9. Planet of the Apes - $180M
8. Cowboys v. Aliens - $190M
7. X-Men First Class - $205M
6. Super 8 - $220M
5. Pirates - $245M
4. Cars 2 - $250M
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $265M
2. Transformers - $310M
1. Harry Potter - $350M

[JasonEvans]

Because I'm far too big a geek for this kind of stuff....here's my top 10 predictions

10. Hangover 2 - $165M
9. Planet of the Apes - $180M
8. Cowboys v. Aliens - $190M
7. X-Men First Class - $205M
6. Super 8 - $220M
5. Pirates - $245M
4. Cars 2 - $250M
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $265M
2. Transformers - $310M
1. Harry Potter - $350M

That is kinda fun. I need to do me one of those some time in the next 48 hours.

So, you think Thor and Captain America will both make less than $165 million... whew, that would be bad news for Marvel. Unless it sucks, Captain America should top $200 million.

But the big surprise is the notion that Hangover II will only make $165 million. The original made $277 million. That would be a massive drop-off of 40%, far bigger than you typically see from original to sequel. You must be really convinced that Hangover II will suck. I saw the trailed and I loved it!

We'll see!

--Jason "only about 48 hours for everyone to get their picks in... hope my Thor review did not scare folks off of that film" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Not sure I follow. There have been some fairly successful PG science fiction adventure films over the years.

Aside from the Star Wars films, the Harry Potter films, the Chronicles of Narnia, Raiders of the Lost Arc, and ET, I can't think of any other examples

-Jason "bwahahahahaha!" Evans

[bjornolf]

Aside from the Star Wars films, the Harry Potter films, the Chronicles of Narnia, Raiders of the Lost Arc, and ET, I can't think of any other examples

-Jason "bwahahahahaha!" Evans

Raiders of the lost Ark isn't science fiction. I'll give you HP and CoN, even though most fans would call it fantasy. What about LotR? Were the Star Trek movies PG? They did pretty well, I thought.

[davekay1971]

I'll take a shot at this...
10. Super8 - $180M
9. Captain America - $200M
8: Hangover 2 - $220M
7: Transformers 3 - $225M
6: KFP2 - $230 M
5. Cowboys v Aliens -$240M
4. Thor - $250M.
3. Pirates - $300M
2. Cars 2 - $310M
1. Harry Potter - $330M

The big question marks for me are Cowboys vs Aliens, Thor, and Super 8. New titles, 2 of them sci fi, the other involving norse gods. CVA has the biggest name stars, though Ford hasn't been a huge box office draw in recent years, but it also has a very hot director and some butt-kicking trailers. If it gets great word of mouth, it could come into the top 5. Thor is getting good buzz, good early reviews, and Chris Helmsworth has the feel of a breakout star. It's also got the catbird seat as the first summer popcorn flick out there, and it's got the box office all to itself for a couple weeks. Good word of mouth, and it could make huge money before there's much to compete against!

[bjornolf]

I decided to let my fellow DBR voters pick my movies. I went with the top 5 that the rest of you voted for, so I have, in order:

1. HP 7.2
2. Cars 2
3. PotC 4
4. Transformers 3
5. Kung Fu Panda 2

The only thing that worries me is that they are ALL sequels. I DO like the demographics that they're all aimed at, especially for summer movies when kids are out of school and parents are desperate to find something to keep them occupied.
So. we'll see how COLLECTIVELY smart we all are.

[Udaman]

I rarely watch previews (like to be spoiler free), but I've seen the ones for Thor, and for Captain America. Thor looks OK, but mostly made me feel like..."blah." Captain America was just god awful. It's a period piece, but seems to lack a soul (at least from the previews). This (and Smurfs) are my two choices for biggest bust.

Then again, I also felt the first Iron Man would be a bust (but, I didn't see a preview...if I had, I would have changed my tune). I predict that Thor will make $80M in it's first week, and that translates to about $160M overall. Of course the 3-D will give it a boost...but I also think there could be some backlash on the 3-D. One review I saw said the 3-D is entirely unnecessary...people don't like paying $13 for a movie they could have paid $9 for.

As for Hangover 2 ....what it did at the box office is a really rare event. It opened with $45M in the first weekend...and then ended up making $277M overall, which means the first weekend it did only 16% of its total take. Very, very rare. The rule of thumb is to double your first weekend. If you are lucky, you triple it. Their take went up by 700%. The only others I can easily think of were Titanic ($29M opening weekend, going on to make $600M), Avatar ($77M, going on to make $760M) and Wedding Crashers ($33M going on to make $203M).

It would be really odd for the sequel to have the same word of mouth, and the same legs. I predict this one opens at $85M, and does just over $200M when all is said and done.

We'll see.

Not sure if I'm going to see Thor now. 50/50 on it really.

[JasonEvans]

Well, I waited until the last minute but I have voted. I hate my votes...

1. Transformers III
2. HP 7.2
3. Pirates IV
4. Cars II
5. Hangover II

I went with the no-brainers first -- HP 7.2, Pirates, and Transformers are all sure-things. All the other films in the franchises have been mega-huge hits and there is no reason to think it won't continue with these.

All the recent HP films have made $290+ million. As the final one in the series, this one is a lock to make $320+ million. Transformers II sucked and it still made more than $400 million. This one is supposedly going to be a bit higher quality. I cannot see how it makes less than $300 million. I am a bit surprised at how many people have not voted for Pirates. Are you folks aware that all three of the other Pirates films have made over $300 million? With ticket price inflation and a 3D bump, this thing is guaranteed to make that much.

I went with Cars II even though I felt Cars was one of the weaker Pixar films and the trailers for Cars II have been godawful so far. Still, Pixar is yet to make a bad movie and I know Cars is one of the most marketable of Pixar's franchises in terms of appeal to the under-10 age group. I figure it will make something north of $280 million when all is said and done.

I went with Hangover II as my last pick. I am taking a real flier on this one, but I think the original was recent enough and beloved enough to really have some strong goodwill left over for the sequel. I would ordinarily worry about a "been there, done that" feeling but the trailer had me howling and I like that they appear to be embracing the fact that the same thing has happened to the same guys and it is just as mysterious and funny the second time around. I just have faith, after seeing the trailer, that they have made something that will again be high quality and I think audiences will be eager for another funny comedy this summer. I will probabyl curse myself for picking an R-rated film, as they face a real uphill climb to keep up with with the PG-13 action films (only 1 R-rated film in history has broken $300 mill at the boxoffice). Still, I am going with Hangover II.

--Jason "I hope that I am wrong and Super 8 or Cowboys and Aliens cracks the Top 5 as it would mean those films are really good... and I would love to see that" Evans

[Udaman]

I think X-Men First Class could really surprise. The third X-men movie made $234M five years ago...and it was a really bad movie. If this one is any good at all, it could do extremely well with the teenage boy group, and then if Green Lantern disappoints, there is little competition until Transformers opens up.

I agree with Jason on Harry Potter, Pirates and Transformers. Those will be in the top 5. I also agree on Cars 2 (Pixar you just don't vote against)....but I think Kung Fu Panda will be the last top 5, and make more than Cars 2. The original made $215M. This one will be in 3-D, which means it has a premium. My kids loved the first one. They are all eager for the 2nd. It opens Memorial Day weekend, and has no kid competition until June 24th. To me, this is a lock for the Top 5. Absolute lock.

One thing to consider is the 3-D effect. Potter, Pirates, Transformers, Cars 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2 are all being released in 3-D. That will add $30M more to their take than otherwise, meaning The Hangover2, X-Men, and Cowboys and Aliens have to do that much better to catch them.

I'm sure I'm wrong...but I feel real positive about my top 5. Still think we should have omitted Harry Potter (since it's a lock) and basically picked the top 6. That last one in is going to be tough, tough, tough to call. I think it's Super 8, X-Men, Cowboys and Aliens or Planet of the Apes (but not Hangover 2 or Thor).

[JasonEvans]

Here is an article some dude wrote for the Wall Street Journal on Thor's boxoffice prospects. This guy doesn't know what he is talking about if you ask me

Working against “Thor” is an unusual amount of competition. Typically, there’s little else appealing to action fans the first weekend of May. But this year, “Fast Five” jump-started summer by opening last weekend to surprisingly strong business ($86 million). Analysts expect “Fast Five” to make around $35 million this weekend. Most of those dollars will likely come from moviegoers who would otherwise be buying tickets to “Thor.”

The lunatic writing this column seems to expect Thor to make around $70 million this weekend. It is sorta hard to see it getting to the $250 million kinda figure it will need to reach the Top 5 if it only opens at $70 million.

-Jason "who do they hire to write these things?!?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I tell ya, the Rise of the Apes trailed just looked fantastic. I am dying to see that flick after seeing the trailed. Heck, I think it is a pity that it is tied to Planet of the Apes, as I think it might do better without the baggage that franchise carries (most of the Apes films have been real critical bombs).

But, with an August release date there is no way it makes enough to reach our Top 5. It could be the best sci fi film of the year and not get to the $250+ million it will need to reach our Top 5.

--Jason "classic buyer's remorse -- I already regret picking Hangover II even though I think it will be a big success" Evans

[DevilBen02]

I am a bit surprised at how many people have not voted for Pirates. Are you folks aware that all three of the other Pirates films have made over $300 million? With ticket price inflation and a 3D bump, this thing is guaranteed to make that much.

Maybe I'm just personally bored with the franchise at this point, but I just have a feeling that the premise is running out of steam. I know Depp is still there, but the loss of Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley makes this one feel a bit more hollow. Regarding the success of its predecessors, I also note that despite At World's End making over $300m, that number is a sharp drop-off from the $420+m that Dead Man's Chest made (according to Wikipedia). Maybe that just means that #2 was that much better of a film, or maybe the series' charm is wearing off (albeit slowly). I could be very wrong, but just trying to get lucky predicting a surprise disappointment.

[brevity]

I am a bit surprised at how many people have not voted for Pirates. Are you folks aware that all three of the other Pirates films have made over $300 million? With ticket price inflation and a 3D bump, this thing is guaranteed to make that much.

I am aware -- that it looks like a sucker's bet. This Pirates film feels desperate and has a tiny release window of opportunity. I saw the trailer and wondered if Johnny Depp and Penelope Cruz shared mascara to save the studio money.

More importantly, it's a 4th installment of a movie franchise, which is almost never a good thing. I probably need to set up a new thread/poll where people get to vote on what film series has the best theatrically released 4th film. Slim pickings. These come to mind:

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
Scream 4 (2011)
Resident Evil: Afterlife (2010)
Shrek Forever After (2010)
Fast & Furious (2009)
Terminator Salvation (2009)
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008)
Rambo (2008)
Live Free or Die Hard (2007)
Saw IV (2007)
The Sum of All Fears (2002)*
Lethal Weapon 4 (1998)
Alien Resurrection (1997)
Batman & Robin (1997)
The Next Karate Kid (1994)*
Halloween 4: The Return of Michael Myers (1988)
Police Academy 4: Citizens on Patrol (1987)
Superman IV: The Quest for Peace (1987)
Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home (1986)
Friday the 13th: The Final Chapter (1984)
Sudden Impact (1983)
Conquest of the Planet of the Apes (1972)
Thunderball (1965)

*Not sure about these. The Sum of All Fears has chronologically correct source material, but there is a reboot element to the film. The Next Karate Kid has the same problem, though I guess you could call the series a Mr. Miyagi tetralogy.

I purposely left out The Phantom Menace as it does not chronologically follow the previous trilogy. (Similarly, Hannibal Rising is not really a 4th installment either, or the upcoming X-Men: First Class or The Hobbit.) I also left out Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire because the length of that series was predetermined by the books. (Same with the upcoming Breaking Dawn.)

I'm more interested in cases where a studio gambles to stretch a series beyond the standard 3 films, with the possibility of further sequels if the money keeps coming.

Here's an open invitation to add to the list; your suggestions are welcome. I'm especially interested in films older than Thunderball. If the list gets unwieldy, I may omit the horror films, which (1) I usually don't see, and (2) are less interested in continuity, which may give them an unfair advantage.

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting list, Brevity ...

Of the films listed, I enjoyed just two: Live Free and Die Hard; Star Trek IV, the Voyage Home. I thought both were superior to the third in the series (Trek IV was back when the conventional wisdom was that the odd ones were lousy and the even ones were good ... But they stopped numbering them after six -- although I'd still say that 1-3-5 were poor; 2-4-6 were excellent).

I didn't really like it, but Alien Ressurection was, IMHO, better than the truly awful Alien 3 -- although not close to the superb Alien and Aliens.

I don't know if I buy the cop-out that you used to avoid listing The Phantom Menace. Whatever time line you use, it was the fourth Star Wars film (and it destroyed the franchise). I'd also include the Potter films -- although I think there has been just minor fluctuation in the quality of those films (although No. 4 was when Emma Watson began to blossom as a hottie).

I guess on reflection that the fourth James Bond film -- Thunderball -- was okay. The series didn't really start to dip until No. 5 (You Only Live Twice) ... and that was the last Sean Connery film (except for the late oddity "Never Say Never", which was essentially a remake of Thunderball). After Sean, the deluge.

PS I've been reading that a Godfather IV is in the works -- set in the time frame between the end of No. 2 and the beginning of No. 3. At least that's what I read. Coppola's original idea was to follow Vincinte (Ady Garcia) as he rose then fell, paralleled by flashbacks to DeNiro (Vito) consolidating his power in the period after the flashbacks from Godfather II. But apparently the new idea -- being pushed by Mario Puzo -- covers the late '50s and 60s with Michael at the center.

I'm holding my breath, hoping it will be closer in quality to 1 and 2 (two of the great American films of the second half of the 20th century) and No. 3 (which ranks with the Phantom Menace and Aliens 3 as a blot on a great series). Totally new cast.

[snowdenscold]

To continue the hijack - I vote Rambo IV or Die Hard IV (haven't seen Stark Trek IV).

Not saying they're the best of their series, but I enjoyed both.