Austin Rivers and the one and done rule

[MChambers]

Interestingly, here's an article speculating that the new CBA will change the rule to two and see you, or something like that:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slu...e_draft_040811

[Lord Ash]

Interesting. I wonder what impact this would have on Kentucky, who feature SO many one-and-dones. Would Cal do something like alternating classes of one-and-dones or something?

[yancem]

This could have a serious impact on Duke. If we sign Daniels, that would put us with 12 scholarships for next season with only 1 senior. We already have 2 commitments from the '12 class (Murphy and Sulaimon) so if MP2 decided to stick around for his senior year we would be done recruiting for the '12 class. No Parker and no Muhammad. Granted a second year of Rivers would be awesome but it does put the recruitment of Daniels in a different light.

[Olympic Fan]

While I have no idea how likely the adoption of a 2-year rule is, it does have interesting ramifications for the current crop of college players.

If adopted -- and that's a big IF -- it means that the draft class of 2012 will be one of the weakest in memory. The top current freshmen from this class will be in the 2011 draft this June ... the next wave of great players (Rivers, Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, etc.) will have to wait until 2013 to be eligible.

That leaves a one-year gap without any great prospects on the horizon (unless there are some foreign guys who slip into the picture). Maybe Sullinger as the overwhelming favorite to be No. 1 in 2012.

How does this translate into the real world?

Well, if I were projected as a borderline lottery pick or a late first-round pick this year, it would make a lot of sense to wait until 2012. Guys like John Henson and Mason Plumlee (not to mention Tyler Zeller, Jordan Williams, CJ Leslie, Reggie Jackson, Chris Singleton and Iman Shumpert) would all almost certainly go much higher in 2012 than 2011.

Unfortunately, that doesn't help to much with Kyrie Irving ... yeah, he's be a likely No. 1 pick in 2012 ... but he's a likely No. 1 pick now (depending on who wins the lottery). Pretty much the same for Harrison Barnes, who is a top five guy this year anyway.

Of course, I'll believe the two-and-done rule when I see it.

[Jderf]

While I have no idea how likely the adoption of a 2-year rule is, it does have interesting ramifications for the current crop of college players.

If adopted -- and that's a big IF -- it means that the draft class of 2012 will be one of the weakest in memory. The top current freshmen from this class will be in the 2011 draft this June ... the next wave of great players (Rivers, Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, etc.) will have to wait until 2013 to be eligible.

That leaves a one-year gap without any great prospects on the horizon (unless there are some foreign guys who slip into the picture). Maybe Sullinger as the overwhelming favorite to be No. 1 in 2012.

How does this translate into the real world?

Well, if I were projected as a borderline lottery pick or a late first-round pick this year, it would make a lot of sense to wait until 2012. Guys like John Henson and Mason Plumlee (not to mention Tyler Zeller, Jordan Williams, CJ Leslie, Reggie Jackson, Chris Singleton and Iman Shumpert) would all almost certainly go much higher in 2012 than 2011.

Unfortunately, that doesn't help to much with Kyrie Irving ... yeah, he's be a likely No. 1 pick in 2012 ... but he's a likely No. 1 pick now (depending on who wins the lottery). Pretty much the same for Harrison Barnes, who is a top five guy this year anyway.

Of course, I'll believe the two-and-done rule when I see it.

The only problem with this, from the perspective of a potential draftee, is that none of the players you mentioned will know if the rule is going to change until after this year's draft. They won't be able to take it into account while they are making their decisions. If it factors in at all, it will only do so as speculative guesswork.

[lotusland]

Interesting. I wonder what impact this would have on Kentucky, who feature SO many one-and-dones. Would Cal do something like alternating classes of one-and-dones or something?

Cal would actually have to make sure players go to class or at least "earn" sufficient credit hours to remain eligible for 2 years. I could see a new degree program started for "Sports Center Analysis" or "PS 2 Management".

[MChambers]

Unfortunately, that doesn't help to much with Kyrie Irving ... yeah, he's be a likely No. 1 pick in 2012 ... but he's a likely No. 1 pick now (depending on who wins the lottery). Pretty much the same for Harrison Barnes, who is a top five guy this year anyway.

Of course, I'll believe the two-and-done rule when I see it.

I think Kyrie and Barnes have (or had) very different decisions. Irving is assured going in the top 3, Barnes not so quite high. I really wonder, given how mapped out his career seems to be in his mind, whether he's wavering on the draft this year because he doesn't want to go lower than 3.

[Starter]

This could have a serious impact on Duke. If we sign Daniels, that would put us with 12 scholarships for next season with only 1 senior. We already have 2 commitments from the '12 class (Murphy and Sulaimon) so if MP2 decided to stick around for his senior year we would be done recruiting for the '12 class. No Parker and no Muhammad. Granted a second year of Rivers would be awesome but it does put the recruitment of Daniels in a different light.

Interesting, thanks for taking inventory. It sounds like we don't have a whole lot of flexibility for a bit unless there are transfers. Regardless of whether Muhammad and Parker reciprocate Duke's interest, as we're seeing with Daniels, it'd be good to have the ability to explore promising situations.

Rivers would almost certainly go pro after one year if the rules allowed him to, but it's not like I'd take any 2012 recruit over him. Mason... I mean, who knows? Anything could happen there.

This is sort of why despite the family ties, I have to admit that I wasn't crazy about the Marshall Plumlee recruitment. Though they've each most certainly had their moments, it's not like either of his brothers have set the world on fire, and Marshall -- from what I understand, and feel free to set me straight -- is a bigger project than either Miles or Mason that we shouldn't expect to see extensive time for a while.

All that said... I have to think Krzyzewski has taken all of this into account and has his ducks in a row. Let's see how everything works out.

[Kedsy]

It sounds like we don't have a whole lot of flexibility for a bit unless there are transfers.

We don't need any transfers. It will all work out. IF we get DeAndre and everyone else stays, it's true we'll be up to 13 scholarships for 2012-13. But if Mason is seriously thinking about leaving this year (as reported) he would almost certainly leave next year (especially if the draft is as weak as postulated here). So if Austin is forced to stay (and I think we could all live with that), that would leave us with one scholarship for either Tony P or Shabazz. The odds of us getting both are pretty much of a long shot anyway. I'd be thrilled with one of them, along with our stellar returning cast.

If it factors in at all, it will only do so as speculative guesswork.

This, as opposed to non-speculative guesswork?

[Starter]

We don't need any transfers. It will all work out. IF we get DeAndre and everyone else stays, it's true we'll be up to 13 scholarships for 2012-13. But if Mason is seriously thinking about leaving this year (as reported) he would almost certainly leave next year (especially if the draft is as weak as postulated here). So if Austin is forced to stay (and I think we could all live with that), that would leave us with one scholarship for either Tony P or Shabazz. The odds of us getting both are pretty much of a long shot anyway. I'd be thrilled with one of them, along with our stellar returning cast.

Pretty good rationale here. And I agree, I just hope one of those guys comes, with Parker clearly being a bigger need. I hate to say it, I haven't gotten good vibes from clippings on either one, so maybe it's all a moot point for the wrong reasons.

As for Mason, to be honest, I currently don't see him as an NBA player at all. I'm not 100% sure I'm going to after next year either. But that isn't to say he won't find success if he leaves either this year or next in terms of his draftability, given the current state of the NBA and its draft.

[davekay1971]

Pretty much the same for Harrison Barnes, who is a top five guy this year anyway.
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Now now! Roy would like to remind you (and Harrison) that Barnes could slip all the way to number 11. Maybe lower. You never know! Certainly probably almost certainly not likely to be as high as top 5...maybe. Anyway, yeah, better for Harrison to return to Chapel Hill for another year because he'll probably go all the way from number 11, or 15, or whatever, to number 1. It's all in the best interest of the Falcon. Thanks for your time. Roy just wanted me to clear up that little misunderstanding in your post.

[MarkD83]

Would a new CBA effect this year's draft? By that I mean could they tell all current freshman that they have to go to school for another year?

This is not a "wish and a prayer" that Kyrie comes back because signing with an agent has already made him a pro. Just a question.

[MCFinARL]

Would a new CBA effect this year's draft? By that I mean could they tell all current freshman that they have to go to school for another year?

This is not a "wish and a prayer" that Kyrie comes back because signing with an agent has already made him a pro. Just a question.

Kyrie has not signed with an agent yet. He has simply announced that he will sign with an agent, to make it clear he doesn't plan to withdraw from the draft.

[coldriver10]

I would love to see this rule go into effect. I think the forced-to-go-to-college-for-one-year rule has hurt the college basketball landscape and how players are recruited. Personally, I like how the MLB and the NFL do it, and I hope the NBA heads in either direction.

[Richard Berg]

If the new CBA raises the age requirement, they should:
- allow HS kids to be directly eligible again, like MLB
- not make the new restrictions take effect until 2013, so that '11 players are not unfairly penalized

[Duke: A Dynasty]

I do not think this would affect anyone who is already in school by the time this goes into affect. It would not be fair to the players like Rivers. They probably would allow anyone who had signed a LOI before this was put out to go ahead and be a one and done if they so choose and it would take full effect on Murphy's class.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I do not think this would affect anyone who is already in school by the time this goes into affect. It would not be fair to the players like Rivers. They probably would allow anyone who had signed a LOI before this was put out to go ahead and be a one and done if they so choose and it would take full effect on Murphy's class.

Why would the NBA or current players, those negotiating the new CBA, care about a single class of college players?

[Duke: A Dynasty]

To keep and enire draft from being watered down....

[Newton_14]

Why would the NBA or current players, those negotiating the new CBA, care about a single class of college players?

Have to agree with Oz here. If they move to the new rule, I think the NBA will implement it immediately, rather than pushing out the date for the 2011 freshman class.

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Have to agree with Oz here. If they move to the new rule, I think the NBA will implement it immediately, rather than pushing out the date for the 2011 freshman class.

They would only be hurting their own draft by doing that though. Idk just my thoughts though.