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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Sweet 16/Elite 8 discussion thread

    Sorry to be a bit late to get this started, but this should be your destination for conversation about the upcoming Sweet 16 games. We are likely going to put the individual regional bracket threads to bed at this point as they have gotten a bit long and cumbersome.

    I'll get things started. Feel free to comment and elaborate on the numbered comments below with anything from "Jason preaches the truth!" to "Dude, you are insane."

    • 1) If we were to rank the quality of the 16 remaining teams, the SE-SW side of the bracket would only have one team (Kansas) among the top 8, IMO.
    • 2) Anyone who thinks Ohio St is going to roll over Kentucky by hitting 50%+ of their threes again is wrong, IMO. The key to that game will be whether Kentucky can stop Sullinger inside. The Terrence Jones vs. Sullinger matchup is gonna be epic!
    • 3) San Diego St's D versus Kemba Walker should be a fabulous matchup. It will likely be a low-scoring back and forth battle. This is the game Vegas rates the closest, calling it a pick'em.
    • 4) UNC is a 6 point favorite over Marquette but Duke is a 10 point pick over Arizona? I think Vegas is expect Kyrie to be a major force this coming week. Either that or there are serious concerns about how good UNC is.
    • 5) A whole heck of a lot of teams on the SE-SW side can see a very realistic path to reaching the national title game. If Florida State can just muster a little bit of offense over the weekend, they could be a real contender in all this mess.
    • 6) I've got a feeling that Jimmer is going to go for 40 or 50 against Florida. I am not sure Florida is going to be able to keep up with that offensive pace.


    -Jason "well, that should get you all started... enjoy" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Sorry to be a bit late to get this started, but this should be your destination for conversation about the upcoming Sweet 16 games. We are likely going to put the individual regional bracket threads to bed at this point as they have gotten a bit long and cumbersome.

    I'll get things started. Feel free to comment and elaborate on the numbered comments below with anything from "Jason preaches the truth!" to "Dude, you are insane."

    • 1) If we were to rank the quality of the 16 remaining teams, the SE-SW side of the bracket would only have one team (Kansas) among the top 8, IMO.
    • 2) Anyone who thinks Ohio St is going to roll over Kentucky by hitting 50%+ of their threes again is wrong, IMO. The key to that game will be whether Kentucky can stop Sullinger inside. The Terrence Jones vs. Sullinger matchup is gonna be epic!
    • 3) San Diego St's D versus Kemba Walker should be a fabulous matchup. It will likely be a low-scoring back and forth battle. This is the game Vegas rates the closest, calling it a pick'em.
    • 4) UNC is a 6 point favorite over Marquette but Duke is a 10 point pick over Arizona? I think Vegas is expect Kyrie to be a major force this coming week. Either that or there are serious concerns about how good UNC is.
    • 5) A whole heck of a lot of teams on the SE-SW side can see a very realistic path to reaching the national title game. If Florida State can just muster a little bit of offense over the weekend, they could be a real contender in all this mess.
    • 6) I've got a feeling that Jimmer is going to go for 40 or 50 against Florida. I am not sure Florida is going to be able to keep up with that offensive pace.


    -Jason "well, that should get you all started... enjoy" Evans
    Not sure if this is what you meant, but I don't think you'll see Jones on Sullinger much at all. It will be Harrellson/Vargas, with guys like Jones, Lamb, and Miller on the double-team. Could be wrong, of course.

    And I am going to try to debunk the "Kansas has a cake-walk" theme, though I know I won't be successful:
    • VCU just obliterated Purdue, just a complete de-pantsing of Kenpom's #9 team. If they were not VCU, or they didn't have a 12 next to their name, it would be a different story.
    • FSU has the best defense in the country, and I can definitely see a 57-55 game in the E8. Bill Self has been incredibly successful at KU (85% winning percentage), but if you look back at the losses, most of them come when KU doesn't score 70 points. If they meet, and FSU can hold them, while not turning the ball over, an upset would not surprise me.
    • And this all completely ignores Richmond, who, in my view, has at least 3 Ali Farokhmanesh clones.

  3. #3
    Kansas does NOT have a cake walk. I was at the games in Chicago. For about 70 of the 80 minutes they were on the floor, VCU was the best team there. Easily. As strange as this may sound their wins against Purdue and Georgetown were, if anything, more lopsided than the scores indicated. Obviously, Rodriguez (their PG) was outstanding, but I liked how active 6-9 Jamie Skeen was around the basket. They ran terrific sets, running Bradford Burgess and Brandon Rozell inside out off multiple screens- this really set them up from the perimeter. Both Burgess and Nixon played so much bigger than they are (6-5 and 6-4) and were completely unafraid to mix it up under the basket. They were an absolute thrill to watch. It was just amazing how crisply they executed at both ends.

    Of course, arguably the best thing about this is now we won't have to hear about their first round upset of Duke every time somebody mentions VCU. Oh, and if anybody knows anyone related to the VCU band, congratulate them. They are flat out awesome. I would pay good money to be that band director for a game.

    FSU's first game against Texas A&M was absolutley awful: the score was 7-0 10 minutes into the first half. Both teams looked like they'd be fodder for Notre Dame. I couldn't have been more surprised by that upset- FSU was on fire from the perimeter in the first half and really exploited ND in the post in the second. The Irish really had only one true post player and that caught up with them bigtime. Still, I think the 'Noles will have a hard time keeping pace with VCU. The big wildcard is obviously Singleton- he played limited minutes against ND and you wonder how many he'll play with the extra week of rest.

    Thoughts on other regions:
    - On paper, Wisconsin is the best team in the Southeast. But their glaring weakness is perimeter defense. Butler is a bad matchup in that regard. Howard and Vanzant are both over 42% from 3, and if Shelvin Mack has it going like he did against Pitt, the Badgers are in for a long day.
    - While all eyes will obviously be on Jimmer Fredette, BYU and Florida comes down to whether BYU can keep the Gators off the offensive glass. If they can, BYU wins. If the game is close, BYU has a huge advantage (76% vs 67%) from the free throw line.
    - Likewise for SDSU/UConn. Temple managed to nearly match SDSU on the offensive boards. UConn is actually a lousy shooting team, and if the Aztecs can limit them on the offensive glass, they will need a game for the ages from Kemba Walker to win.
    - I think Marquette is a great draw for UNC. The 'Eagles have won ten games this season where the opposition scored over 80 points. Two of those were against Providence, which is 97th in the Pomeroy ratings. Six of them were against teams rated 289th or worse by Pomeroy. All of Marquette's wins over decent teams have come in games with 66 possessions or fewer; in UNC's last 16 games that's happened only twice.
    - Kentucky and Ohio State is obviously the spotlight game here. UK is one of the few teams that's capable of matching the Buckeyes on the perimeter. Josh Harrellson's stunning emergence means the 'Cats may have an answer to Jared Sullinger down low. OSU's defense is strong, but they are actually not a great FG% defense- they excel at forcing turnovers and locking down the defensive glass. Kentucky is, suprisingly, a good ballhandling team and not that reliant on offensive rebounds. You have to give the edge to the Buckeyes, who have played like a team on a mission, but on paper this is a close game.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Chitowndevil View Post
    Kansas does NOT have a cake walk. I was at the games in Chicago. For about 70 of the 80 minutes they were on the floor, VCU was the best team there. Easily. As strange as this may sound their wins against Purdue and Georgetown were, if anything, more lopsided than the scores indicated. Obviously, Rodriguez (their PG) was outstanding, but I liked how active 6-9 Jamie Skeen was around the basket. They ran terrific sets, running Bradford Burgess and Brandon Rozell inside out off multiple screens- this really set them up from the perimeter. Both Burgess and Nixon played so much bigger than they are (6-5 and 6-4) and were completely unafraid to mix it up under the basket. They were an absolute thrill to watch. It was just amazing how crisply they executed at both ends.
    I didn't watch the VCU games but the FSU - Notre Dame was extremely lopsided. FSU looked to me like a final four team against Notre Dame. For the first time in a while the FSU offense has become extremely efficient. Bernard James is an excellent interior scorer who gets a lot of attention opening up the guard play from Kitchen, Snaer ect. There win wasn't a fluke.

    I also think that the matchup against Kansas would be bad for Kansas because Florida State can throw out of bunch of big strong interior defenders (James, Gibson, White, Singleton) that can suffocate the Morris twins. I actually think FSU actually wins that region.

    As for the East region. You would have to be crazy to think that anybody is going too beat Ohio State in that region. I think UNC will be Marquette and then lose to Ohio State in lopsided fashion.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by loldevilz View Post
    I didn't watch the VCU games but the FSU - Notre Dame was extremely lopsided. FSU looked to me like a final four team against Notre Dame. For the first time in a while the FSU offense has become extremely efficient. Bernard James is an excellent interior scorer who gets a lot of attention opening up the guard play from Kitchen, Snaer ect. There win wasn't a fluke.

    I also think that the matchup against Kansas would be bad for Kansas because Florida State can throw out of bunch of big strong interior defenders (James, Gibson, White, Singleton) that can suffocate the Morris twins. I actually think FSU actually wins that region.

    As for the East region. You would have to be crazy to think that anybody is going too beat Ohio State in that region. I think UNC will be Marquette and then lose to Ohio State in lopsided fashion.
    FSU did look good, but how much of that was because of the 'Noles' fluke 3 point shooting and a really bad matchup for Notre Dame? The Irish don't really play defense and didn't have a creative force on the offensive end that could break FSU's stout defense down. I agree that FSU looks legit when their offense is going, but will their offense work as efficiently against a Kansas team that plays strong defense in its own right and possesses more scorers that are capable of creating offense than Notre Dame? The 'Noles have a chance (and for the sake of the ACC, I am hoping they win the region) but I'm not convinced that their offensive performance against Notre dame wasn't a fluke.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    [*]2) Anyone who thinks Ohio St is going to roll over Kentucky by hitting 50%+ of their threes again is wrong, IMO. The key to that game will be whether Kentucky can stop Sullinger inside. The Terrence Jones vs. Sullinger matchup is gonna be epic!


    -Jason "well, that should get you all started... enjoy" Evans
    The thing about Ohio State is that they are a truly excellent 3 point shooting team . . . with Diebler, of course, leading the way with 110 makes to 110 misses on the season. Shooting over 50% is unlikely, but shooting at least 40% and possibly higher is almost business as usual for them. As much as Duke gets labeled blindly as a live by the three, die by the three team, Ohio State relies on three pointers for a larger percentage of their scoring than Duke. I think if Ohio State wants to win, they will need to make their outside shots.

    Interestingly, Kentucky is also an excellent three point shooting team while Ohio State's 3pt defense is not as good as Kentucky's on the season. If Kentucky is able to limit the outside shot from Diebler and Lighty while also getting Lamb and Knight to knock down a few of their own, I think three point shooting may actually favor Kentucky. The team that makes the most threes may in fact be the team that pulls out the victory.

  7. #7
    Among the many fine players for tOSU and UK, PG Aaron Craft is perhaps least known - outside the Big 10. IMO, his defense on Brandon Knight will be a [not necessarily the] key. Two of the very best frosh in the country. Craft was Big 10 DPOY. Great court sense, smart, smart. Heard Izzo singing Craft's praises on Dan Patrick show this morn.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    I guess

    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    The thing about Ohio State is that they are a truly excellent 3 point shooting team . . . with Diebler, of course, leading the way with 110 makes to 110 misses on the season. Shooting over 50% is unlikely, but shooting at least 40% and possibly higher is almost business as usual for them. As much as Duke gets labeled blindly as a live by the three, die by the three team, Ohio State relies on three pointers for a larger percentage of their scoring than Duke. I think if Ohio State wants to win, they will need to make their outside shots.

    Interestingly, Kentucky is also an excellent three point shooting team while Ohio State's 3pt defense is not as good as Kentucky's on the season. If Kentucky is able to limit the outside shot from Diebler and Lighty while also getting Lamb and Knight to knock down a few of their own, I think three point shooting may actually favor Kentucky. The team that makes the most threes may in fact be the team that pulls out the victory.
    I can't really root for Kentucky, but I would like to see Ohio State not make the Final Four. Guess I'm a big Marquette fan this week.

    I can't see how Kentucky matches up with Sullinger. Harrelson will have 2 fouls when he gets off the bus and Vargas probably can't play more than 10 minutes.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    NYC
    As much as I would like to see Ohio St. go down, I don't see it happening. Kentucky is too young IMO. They certainly have the talent, but tOSU matches up well and has been far more consistent.

    As we all know, most anything can happen once you reach the sweet 16, but I think Ohio St., whether they hit 3's at a high % or not, will win by 10 or more. Ohio State is what you look for in a tournament team. They have good guard play, a dominant force on the low post, great shooters and lastly, they are very willing to play defense.

    In the UNC match-up, I think it will look similar to their past couple games (besides duke). They will start off somewhat slow and then eventually pick the pace up and win by a few points. I do not think it will be a blow out, and I wouldn't be too surprised if Maquette won here, but I think UNC has the advantage and the talent... albeit young talent.

    I think Butler wins. This one is a toss-up for me but I love the way Butler is playing right now. They have proven that experience does count for something and the way they can win close games is also very important moving forward. Wisconsin is solid and should play well due to their defense. It might be a game that finishes in the 50-60 point range.

    I know everyone loves Jimmer but I think they're going down to Florida. The lack of size for BYU, added with the fact that Florida can throw multiple people at Jimmer is my reasoning for picking UF.

    Kansas will win.

    The most anticipated match-up for me, other than Duke of course, is SDSU vs. Kemba, Calhoun and Co. This will be a great one and I have no idea who I'd pick as the winner.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Hudson Valley, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Guess I'm a big Marquette fan this week.
    I'd love to see Marquette put together a couple of great games. I took notice of them early in the year.

    They are playing well and if the 'holes don't watch it, they will be heading home quickly.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville NC

    Don't Worry

    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I can't really root for Kentucky, but I would like to see Ohio State not make the Final Four. Guess I'm a big Marquette fan this week.

    I can't see how Kentucky matches up with Sullinger. Harrelson will have 2 fouls when he gets off the bus and Vargas probably can't play more than 10 minutes.

    Don't worry. I can't root for Duke. Unless they are Playing UNC. Then I will put on the Horns!!

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    I think three point shooting may actually favor Kentucky. The team that makes the most threes may in fact be the team that pulls out the victory.
    I hope you're wrong. All I want in the East Region is for the teams most capable of beating UNC to advance. I rooted for Washington against Georgia, and Syracuse against Marquette. Unless UNC has already lost, I'll be rooting hard for Ohio State against Kentucky.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
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    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I hope you're wrong. All I want in the East Region is for the teams most capable of beating UNC to advance. I rooted for Washington against Georgia, and Syracuse against Marquette. Unless UNC has already lost, I'll be rooting hard for Ohio State against Kentucky.
    Um, don't worry, Kedsy. The last thing I want is UK to play UNC again! That would definitely be a case of hoping the gym would just explode. Ohio St. is a terrible matchup for UNC and if UNC continues winning, I would love to see the Buckeyes knock them off. Quite honestly, I wouldn't mind us playing Ohio St. Yes, they are a scary team, but we gotta beat the best to be the champs. If the road to the championship leads us to a FF 4 matchup with Ohio State then bring it on!

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville NC

    Smile Trust me

    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    Um, don't worry, Kedsy. The last thing I want is UK to play UNC again! That would definitely be a case of hoping the gym would just explode. Ohio St. is a terrible matchup for UNC and if UNC continues winning, I would love to see the Buckeyes knock them off. Quite honestly, I wouldn't mind us playing Ohio St. Yes, they are a scary team, but we gotta beat the best to be the champs. If the road to the championship leads us to a FF 4 matchup with Ohio State then bring it on!
    I feel the same way when Duke and UNC play each other. However...hatred for UNC is universal. Something that binds the irrational wildcate fans with the pompous Duke Fans.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    NYC

    order of who is left

    Here's my list of who to root for and against with 12 teams left -

    Root for:
    Butler - was there a more gracious fan base to face in the title game last year?
    Richmond/VCU - everyone loves the underdog
    Marquette -because it would mean eliminating UNC, also Buzz Williams is entertaining
    Arizona - much respect to this team after last night, plus some people prefer to lose to the eventual champs for what its worth

    Eh, no preference
    Ohio St
    Florida
    Florida St

    Root against:
    Kansas - Always mentioned in the top programs, hopefully not adding another trophy
    UConn - Calhoun cheats and I can do without another Husky title
    Kentucky - It would be vacated anyways
    UNC-CH - GTHC GTH

  16. #16

    The Rooting Dilemma

    Can only now root for the Mid Majors and Fla. State. At least FSU is in the AAC and they won't get uppity in bball because its football interests will put them down. Also, it would stiffen the recruiting competition with its arch rival in Gainesville.
    Yes, Marquette .But now the BE will say our 11th seed won rather than our top 4 seeds only won 3 games.
    The ohio state. Well not since the 60's so let them sneak another in while their football team is on suspension.
    Arizona. Trumping the eventual champion argument is that it could become a bball oasis/mecca out in the desert with little competition due to the absence of many good teams out West. "Go west young man" etc.
    The rest. I don't need to say anything the choice is so loathsome. Guess UK since it will likely get vacated so nobody wins. in 2011

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking Marquette is Toast

    UNC leads 40-15, after trailing 10-8 (when I tuned in). Uhhh,... That's 32-5.

    sagegrouse

  18. #18
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    Apr 2010
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    Columbus, OH
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    UNC leads 40-15, after trailing 10-8 (when I tuned in). Uhhh,... That's 32-5.

    sagegrouse
    Sure wish they didn't call over and back on Syracuse in a tie game with a minute left last week. Also, sure wish they didn't call 5 seconds on Texas either.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Must be nice playing an 11 and 12 seed with no dynamic player in the Sweet 16

    All about matchups and luck of the draw

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    Must be nice playing an 11 and 12 seed with no dynamic player in the Sweet 16

    All about matchups and luck of the draw
    Nah, it's just that we weren't that good and UNC is truly the cream of the crop. *inserts serious eye rolls here*

    Of course you're 100% correct. Matchups and the luck of the draw are playing out huge right now.

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