MBB S16: Duke v. Arizona Pre-game and In-Game Thread

[COYS]

They don't give up a lot of offensive boards, the only real flaw seems to be the other team shoots well inside the arc and they don't block many shots.

I think they have more weaknesses than this. For one thing, their 2 point defense is REALLY bad for a top team: 281st to be exact. Block percentage is 289. Steal percentage is 298. And they are 252nd at forcing turnovers on defense. Their defense does not generate a lot of extra possessions for the offense. Also, they are 155th in offensive rebounding, which isn't bad, but is nothing too scary, either. This is probably a big reason why they are only 18th in offensive efficiency despite having an array of sharpshooters and the extremely efficient Williams.

They have also benefited mightily from really good free throw defense. I don't know what their strategy is, but teams are shooting a paltry 67% at the line. Assuming Kyle can correct his free throw issues from the other day, we have a great chance at besting this mark by a decent margin. The lack of shot blockers makes drives by Nolan, Kyrie, and Kyle that much more dangerous. If we take away their three point shooting (or at least make it significantly less effective) and clean up on the boards, they will have a very difficult time generating offense. Williams will probably get his (although I expect Coach K to devise some interesting schemes for guarding him), but if we force contested 3's, rebound, take care of the ball, and attack the rim, they will be the ones scratching their heads, trying to figure out how in the world to stop us.

Stats from kenpom.

[sagegrouse]

According to the newspaper Duke is a 9 point favorite over Arizona. In my opinion that is absolutely ridiculous !!!

We have had trouble with athletic physical teams this year and we have to travel cross country in a different time zone while Arizona stays virtually at home.

I am not saying that we shouldn't be a favorite but 9 points...NO WAY !!!

I am with you that the spread is surprising, especially given that Duke beat eight-seeded Michigan by only two points. But then, Duke just a week ago beat two-seeded UNC by 17 points.

I don't think the travel and the time zones make any difference, especially given the charter flight. And WRT the late start, Duke usually has the 9PM slot on weekday games on ESPN.

OTOH I would rather play Friday, however, because I think the team needs practice time with Kyrie on the court. Tuesday is the only full practice day for Duke, although its shoot-arounds the day before the game are far more energetic than anyone else's.

sagegrouse

[Billy Dat]

I always like our chances when a team plays our style. Michigan forced us to play their slow down game, but Arizona plays a faster pace and that will help us. Plus, I think we'll get some tips from Johnny D who went 0-2 against Arizona but who knows Miller-coached Zona teams well and should provide some good scouting.

I, personally, think of Mason and Miles as athletic bigs, if athleticism is mostly defined as speed and hops. They can run and jump with any other 6'10"ers out there. If Williams is 6'8", then I can't see anyone other than Kyle getting that assignment. That will be a war. Lately, though, K has also been letting Dre take on some of these 6'8" small forwards such as the Black Pidgeon (Barnes). He is very effective at staying with them on the perimeter. I'd rather not see us try and play small. We were really working Michigan on the boards in the first half and, once they started chipping away at that lead, I thought we could have gone a little bigger to try and penetrate that zone and get some alley-oops or dishes to the bigs.

As for Kyrie, I am squarely in the "we're better with him back" camp. This week, the staff needs to drill into him that we need him to be aggressive on offense. He needs to look for his spots, especially to penetrate, as that opens everything up for us. When we passed it to Nolan at the end for those free throws, I wanted us to look for Kyrie because I was sure he'd go 2-2. I am not saying he would have, but that's what my gut was telling me at that moment.

[Duke76]

who has the better 3 point percentage...i really think Michigan's offense creates a
more difficulty in guarding the 3 point shot. Their offense was really outside the box and we should be able to defend somewhat better against Arizona's 3 point shooters, imo

[rhcpflea99]

who has the better 3 point percentage...i really think Michigan's offense creates a
more difficulty in guarding the 3 point shot. Their offense was really outside the box and we should be able to defend somewhat better against Arizona's 3 point shooters, imo

I agree, Michigan also was very patient with there shots. I don't think Arizona will be that patient with there shots. I feel Duke will force Arizona into taking bad shots.

[rhcpflea99]

I am debating if I should try and get tickets. I just moved to San Diego so I'm about an hour away. I don't have the best financial situation but could afford tickets. I guess though it is only worth going if I get real good seats and can talk my friend into going.

I'm going to wait until after the second game and try to score extra ticket from scalpers. Hopefully I'll grab something cheap. Make my way in and wait for the losing team fans to exit and try to grab ticket stub from someone exiting.

[MChambers]

Arizona has a lot of three point shooters. Pomeroy shows that everyone on the roster shoots at least 30%, and all but 2 are above 33%.

Williams is an unwordly 58%, but doesn't take many. He does draw fouls like crazy. I'd expect Kyle to be on him as much as possible.

Question for me is whether Arizona can penetrate well, especially as to the bigs that shoot 3s. Can our bigs stay with them, and stay out of foul trouble?

[NYC Duke Fan]

Then get your bet down - and take the points!

I could never bet against Duke no matter the spread.

I was only making a comment and did not expect this kind of response. Virtually everyone I have spoken to agrees that 9 points is exceedingly high.

[InSpades]

I *really* hope we don't go small to match their smallness like we did against Michigan. I don't think it really helped out defense that much (particularly, we went small more in the 2nd half and Michigan shot 58% for the half).

On the other hand I think it adversely effected our offense. The bigs were getting offensive rebounds and other high percentage shots due to their mismatches inside.

What's funny is I love the smaller lineups (I was a huge proponent of Kyle at the 4 before Kyrie went down) but I've been really impressed with the play of the bigs of late. Kyle should still spend some time at the 4 but Miles+Mason need to play more than 33 minutes. Especially when they are taking advantage of mismatches and being effective.

[78Devil]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ...."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

[ns7]

Someone will have to explain this to me, especially as tOSU has opened as a mere 4-pt fav over UK. Help.

Kentucky is quite good this year. They were the best team in the SEC this year according to efficiency margin. They're also young, so they've gotten better as the year has progressed. Finally, I'd venture that they're more talented than tOSU but just aren't as experienced. These teams are dangerous, I was extremely happy we avoided Kentucky in our bracket.

According to the newspaper Duke is a 9 point favorite over Arizona. In my opinion that is absolutely ridiculous !!!

We have had trouble with athletic physical teams this year and we have to travel cross country in a different time zone while Arizona stays virtually at home.

I am not saying that we shouldn't be a favorite but 9 points...NO WAY !!!

Why not? Michigan is objectively a better team than Arizona. If we played Michigan again, would you be surprised by a 9 point spread?

Arizona is quite bad on defense--worse than Notre Dame--and you saw what FSU did to Notre Dame. The key will be slowing down Derrick Williams while shutting down their perimeter shooters: Parrom, Horne, and Mayes.

[Kedsy]

Williams is an unwordly 58%, but doesn't take many. He does draw fouls like crazy. I'd expect Kyle to be on him as much as possible.

The thing is, if Kyle is on Williams than both our bigs are guarding 6'6"/6'7" guys who presumably are much quicker than our bigs. Either that or we'd have to play small for most of the game and have one big guarding a smaller, quicker player and Andre guarding a bigger, stronger player.

I have not seen Arizona play very much to know how quick or how strong their 3/4s are, but from a defensive standpoint it would seem to make more sense (at least to me) to have Mason or Miles or Ryan try to stop Williams, knowing he's going to get his, putting stress on our defense at only one position rather than at three positions like it would be if Kyle primarily defends our opponent's center.

Just my opinion, of course.

[bluepenguin]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

[DallasDevil]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ...."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

1. Duke will have the best player on the floor, and he along with Curry, Dawkins, and Irving give Duke the clear edge in the backcourt.

2. Coach K

3. Duke will have a size advantage, with 4 rotation players 6'8" or taller, compared to just one (albeit very good) player at 6'8" for Arizona.

[-jk]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

They venues are contracted way early, with the days set in stone. The 1 seed in the West dictated Thu/Sat. The pod in Charlotte dictated Fri/Sun. No conspiracy - except Duke always gets the easiest road, and owns the refs, and ...

-jk

[SCMatt33]

Duke played Fri/Sun first round, so why is Duke being switched to Thu/Sat for the second round?

If you look at the remaining teams, Duke is the only team that got switched to an earlier day (except AZ, but that's because they are playing Duke).

Uconn, SDSU, BYU, FL, Butler, and Wisc played Thu/Sat in the first round and do so again for the second round.

UNC, Marquette, Kansas, OSU, FSU, and VCU played Fri/Sun in the first round and do so again for the second round.

Richmond and KY played Thu/Sat in the first round but now get an extra day of practice as they are playing Fri/Sun in the second round.

Duke and AZ played Fri/Sun in the first round but now lose a day of practice as they are playing Thu/Sat in the second round.

And Duke is more at a disadvantage than AZ, because not only is Duke losing a day of practice, but they also have to go cross country and deal with the time change - which AZ does not.

Why did the committee reverse the Richmond/KY game with the Duke/AZ game? Conspiracy theorists???

It's generally coincidence. With the pod system it's something that can't be controlled. Duke was always going to go to Charlotte, which was determined as Fri/Sun a long time ago so they could sell tickets. It then was basically a 50/50 shot where we ended up. The two Friday regional sites are Newark and San Antonio which went to OSU and Kansas before Duke was even placed in the bracket. Unless Duke was ahead of OSU on the S-curve, or ahead of Kansas, but behind two other teams (OSU and Pitt most likely) that would have gone to Newark and New Orleans first, we had no chance of a Friday regional. The only thing that surprised me about that was that 12 of 16 pods went Thurs/Thurs or Fri/Fri. That's a pretty good number.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

1. Duke will have the best player on the floor, and he along with Curry, Dawkins, and Irving give Duke the clear edge in the backcourt.

As much as I love Nolan, I must disagree. Williams is the better player. If we can just slow him down (no way to stop him), we'll win. We have a superior backcourt and much better support for our star.

[sagegrouse]

Someone make me feel better. Finish the following sentence:

"Arizona needs to be really concerned about the Duke match-up for the following three reasons: ...."

It would make a nice change from our concerns about our matchup against them. Don't get me wrong, these concerns are all legitimate. Its just that after yesterday, I need a little confidence building!

1. The Cats aren't concerned about the Duke matchups; they can't believe they won yesterday. They'll start worrying Wednesday when they come down from the cloud they are riding.

2. Arizona could not handle Texas guard J'Covan Brown, who torched the Cats for 23 points in 25 minutes. Nolan and Kyrie are both better than J'Covan.

3. Rankings: #5 seed vs. #1 seed; #17 AP vs. #3; #31 KenPom vs. #2.

4. They are facing a much larger team. The Cats start a front line of 6-8, 6-7, and 6-6. Duke's front court is 6-10, 6-10, 6-8.

5. Transitive principle: the Cats lost in the PAC-10 finals to UDub, who lost in the NCAAs to UNC, who lost in the ACC finals by 17 to Duke.

6. Fiction of a home crowd. The San Diego State fans bought up the tickets for Anaheim.

sagegrouse

[superdave]

The thing is, if Kyle is on Williams than both our bigs are guarding 6'6"/6'7" guys who presumably are much quicker than our bigs. Either that or we'd have to play small for most of the game and have one big guarding a smaller, quicker player and Andre guarding a bigger, stronger player.

I have not seen Arizona play very much to know how quick or how strong their 3/4s are, but from a defensive standpoint it would seem to make more sense (at least to me) to have Mason or Miles or Ryan try to stop Williams, knowing he's going to get his, putting stress on our defense at only one position rather than at three positions like it would be if Kyle primarily defends our opponent's center.

Just my opinion, of course.

Did anyone who saw the whole Texas-Arizona game have any take-aways about how to guard Williams? I think Mason's length could really cause him trouble. But Mason could get lost on screens and switches on the perimeter. I agree with Kedsy that we'll need Kyle to guard their 3, but Kyle or the other big should be ready to double down in the paint when Williams gets the ball in the post.

Of course pressuring their ball handlers might be the best way to slow Williams down, and I love our ability to do that.

[superdave]

As much as I love Nolan, I must disagree. Williams is the better player. If we can just slow him down (no way to stop him), we'll win. We have a superior backcourt and much better support for our star.

No, Nolan is the better player. And clearly so. Nolan is likely to be a consensus 1st team All-American pick. Williams may sneak onto some 1st team selections, but that is unlikely. Williams has a better chance of being an NBA all-star. But Nolan is better now and has had a better season to date.

We're the #1 seed - they are not!