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  1. #1
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    Nov 2007
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    Could Nolan reach 2000???

    I was looking at the updated season stats and noticed that after last night, Nolan has scored 463 points so far this year. I remembered in the off-season, the idea of him reaching 2000 points was kicked around, but thought to be too much of a long shot. Coming into the year, Nolan had 1147 points, thus requiring 853 more to reach 2000. That would be one of the highest scoring seasons in Duke history. Since Kyrie got hurt, however (and after taking the Bradley game to adjust), Nolan has come on strong to raise his season average to 21 ppg. He now needs 390 more points to reach 2000 for his career. To get that he would need to average the following:

    18 games left: 21.7 ppg
    17 games left: 22.9 ppg
    16 games left: 24.4 ppg
    15 games left: 26.0 ppg
    14 games left: 27.9 ppg
    13 games left: 30.0 ppg
    12 games left: 32.5 ppg
    11 games left: 35.5 ppg

    In the 13 games since scoring just 2 points against Bradley, Nolan has averaged 24.5 ppg. During that time his low is 18 points and he has failed to reach 20 just 3 times. Because of the larger numbers involved, his chase is more sensitive to the number of games remaining than Kyle's chases. If he keeps up his current pace, an ACC title game and Elite 8 appearance could get him there, though he would have a much more reasonable opportunity if Duke got to Houston. Either way, it is still a long shot. If Kyrie were to somehow come back (please, please, please!!!) it would definitely put a damper on Nolan's chances. Given that he's been able to sustain this type of scoring load for nearly 2 months now, however, I think it is worth following.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post

    18 games left: 21.7 ppg
    17 games left: 22.9 ppg
    16 games left: 24.4 ppg
    15 games left: 26.0 ppg
    Glad this got its own thread. Nolan is having an amazing senior year and is an odds-on pick for 1st team AA.

    I dont see Nolan dropping a lot or gaining a whole lot in his ppg unless a consistent 3rd scorer emerges (Kyrie coming back?). So I'd bet on Nolan keeping a slightly less prolific pace (the 22.9 scenario), which means he's got to carry us to the Final Four. It's do-able, albeit unlikely.

  3. #3
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    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    I don't know, after yesterday I kind of feel like the team would be better served with some more balanced scoring, with Smith scoring more like in the low-20's rather than mid to high-20's. Then again, if Thornton becomes a fixture in the starting lineup, that probably bodes well for Smith reaching 2000 because a.) he can concentrate more on scoring and less on ball-handling, and b.) Thornton isn't much of a scorer himself which means there are more shots available for the taking.

    In terms of personal achievement, I think Smith leading the ACC in both scoring and assists is way more impressive than reaching 2000 points. If he does this for the whole season he will definitely go down as one of the greatest players in the ACC.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don't know, after yesterday I kind of feel like the team would be better served with some more balanced scoring, with Smith scoring more like in the low-20's rather than mid to high-20's. Then again, if Thornton becomes a fixture in the starting lineup, that probably bodes well for Smith reaching 2000 because a.) he can concentrate more on scoring and less on ball-handling, and b.) Thornton isn't much of a scorer himself which means there are more shots available for the taking.

    In terms of personal achievement, I think Smith leading the ACC in both scoring and assists is way more impressive than reaching 2000 points. If he does this for the whole season he will definitely go down as one of the greatest players in the ACC.
    Looking at Nolan's FGAs during this last stretch of games it's hard not to notice that he's putting up pretty much the same number of shots every game, vs Md. he actually shot the ball a little less than his average as of late. Seems to me that it's not as much of a question of how many shots are available for Nolan (seeing as how he's getting pretty much as many shots as he wants) but how many of them he makes. When he shoots well from the floor (vs. SJU he shot 10-19) he scores a lot (32) when he shoots less well (6-16 vs Md. or 6-22 @WF) he scores a little less (21 & 19) but he's not shooting that much less, and sometimes more.
    One thing that is helping Nolan's pursuit of 2K pts is his FT% lately. Early in the year he was in the low-mid 70s%, but his extended stretch of great FT shooting has raised his average up to 82.5%.
    Another thing that would really help him in his pursuit, and might even be improved with the return of Kyrie, is his 3FG%. At one point this year Nolan was shooting over 40% but that has dropped recently due to a rough stretch from beyond the arc to 33.7%, which is still reasonably good. If by the end of the year he were able to pull that up to 40% again, wow, he'd be in great shape for 2K pts.

  5. #5
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington DC
    Nolan has been pretty adept at getting to the rim in the 2nd half of games when defenses get tired. He does it in transition, out of our spread offense and in the half-court. I like how Bilas pointed out the other night that Nolan can change speeds quickly. Except for a few games at the beginning of the ACC season, teams have not been able to slow down his penetration. He's playing with a lot of confidence, and those drives make our offense more efficient even if folks want to see more balance. If Nolan has an advantage, he should exploit it.

  6. #6

    Great season and career

    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    I was looking at the updated season stats and noticed that after last night, Nolan has scored 463 points so far this year. I remembered in the off-season, the idea of him reaching 2000 points was kicked around, but thought to be too much of a long shot. Coming into the year, Nolan had 1147 points, thus requiring 853 more to reach 2000. That would be one of the highest scoring seasons in Duke history. Since Kyrie got hurt, however (and after taking the Bradley game to adjust), Nolan has come on strong to raise his season average to 21 ppg. He now needs 390 more points to reach 2000 for his career. To get that he would need to average the following:

    18 games left: 21.7 ppg
    17 games left: 22.9 ppg
    16 games left: 24.4 ppg
    15 games left: 26.0 ppg
    14 games left: 27.9 ppg
    13 games left: 30.0 ppg
    12 games left: 32.5 ppg
    11 games left: 35.5 ppg

    In the 13 games since scoring just 2 points against Bradley, Nolan has averaged 24.5 ppg. During that time his low is 18 points and he has failed to reach 20 just 3 times. Because of the larger numbers involved, his chase is more sensitive to the number of games remaining than Kyle's chases. If he keeps up his current pace, an ACC title game and Elite 8 appearance could get him there, though he would have a much more reasonable opportunity if Duke got to Houston. Either way, it is still a long shot. If Kyrie were to somehow come back (please, please, please!!!) it would definitely put a damper on Nolan's chances. Given that he's been able to sustain this type of scoring load for nearly 2 months now, however, I think it is worth following.
    If he has 1975 who will think the less of him?

  7. #7
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    Delaware
    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    If he has 1975 who will think the less of him?
    No one, but it's still fun to root for. Will I think less of this team if they lose in the second round? Of coarse not, but I'm still rooting for a title and will have fun discussing what it takes to get there. Same with individual accomplishments.

  8. #8
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    Feb 2007
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    Seattle, WA
    Regardless of whether he gets all the way to 2000, continued high scoring plus deep tournament runs should vault Nolan into the Groat-Hill-Shelden-Langdon territory in total points (with Shane and Heyman not far away). That's rarified company to be keeping.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  9. #9
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    Delaware
    Nolan added 20 points against NC State to bring his career total to 1630, 370 shy of 2000. Here are his updated numbers. You know it's tough when a 20 point effort hurts his chances. It will take an incredible Nolan to get there and getting to Grant Hill and Shelden seems to be a much more likely without at least getting to Houston.

    17 games left: 21.8 ppg
    16 games left: 23.1 ppg
    15 games left: 24.7 ppg
    14 games left: 26.4 ppg
    13 games left: 28.5 ppg
    12 games left: 30.8 ppg
    11 games left: 33.6 ppg
    10 games left: 37.0 ppg

  10. #10
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    Having a career high always helps in this sort of chase. 34 more points puts Nolan at 1664 for his career. Here's what he need the rest of the way to reach 2000:

    16 games left: 21.0
    15 games left: 22.4
    14 games left: 24.0
    13 games left: 25.8
    12 games left: 28.0
    11 games left: 30.5
    10 games left: 33.6
    09 games left: 37.3

    It still looks like it won't happen without an ACC final and Elite Eight trip (sans Kyrie), but with the way he's scoring, If Duke gets to the Final Four he will have a great shot, and if Duke goes all the way, I have a hard time seeing him not get there, considering how well he'll have to play for us to make it that far.

  11. #11
    where is he on the list of all time scorers now? Who is immediately ahead of him?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by monkey View Post
    where is he on the list of all time scorers now? Who is immediately ahead of him?
    Nolan actually had a big game tonight in terms of passing players on the all time list. He passed three guys, Cherokee Parks, Ronnie Mayer, and Randy Denton for 21st all time. He now sits directly behind Bobby Hurley, who has 1731.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by monkey View Post
    where is he on the list of all time scorers now? Who is immediately ahead of him?
    Here is a link at scacchoops.com to the all-time Duke scorers. You can also sort it to display ACC all time as well. It doesn't have tonight's numbers in it yet but it will shortly.

    After tonight:

    17. Jeff Mullins 1884
    18. Bob Verga 1758
    19. Bobby Hurley 1728
    20. Nolan Smith 1664
    21. Randy Denton 1658
    22. Cherokee Parks 1643

    He passed Denton and Parks tonight. Hurley's up next, likely in 3 or 4 games.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    Here is a link at scacchoops.com to the all-time Duke scorers. You can also sort it to display ACC all time as well. It doesn't have tonight's numbers in it yet but it will shortly.

    After tonight:

    17. Jeff Mullins 1884
    18. Bob Verga 1758
    19. Bobby Hurley 1728
    20. Nolan Smith 1664
    21. Randy Denton 1658
    22. Cherokee Parks 1643

    He passed Denton and Parks tonight. Hurley's up next, likely in 3 or 4 games.
    I forgot to mention in my post about Ronnie Mayer's mark. Apparently, back in the 50's, there was a rule that allowed schools with small enrollment to be exempt from the freshman ineligibility rule. I don't know the specifics, whether the rule was short lived, or Duke only qualified for a short time, but it allowed Mayer to play his freshman year. The NCAA does not recognize stats from freshman during this period, but Duke does, so it depends on who you ask whether Nolan passed two or three guys tonight. Also, he currently 21st and not 20th because the SCACCHoops list is only since the formation of the ACC and leaves out Dick Groat.

  15. #15
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    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    I forgot to mention in my post about Ronnie Mayer's mark. Apparently, back in the 50's, there was a rule that allowed schools with small enrollment to be exempt from the freshman ineligibility rule. I don't know the specifics, whether the rule was short lived, or Duke only qualified for a short time, but it allowed Mayer to play his freshman year. The NCAA does not recognize stats from freshman during this period, but Duke does, so it depends on who you ask whether Nolan passed two or three guys tonight. Also, he currently 21st and not 20th because the SCACCHoops list is only since the formation of the ACC and leaves out Dick Groat.
    Thanks for the interesting tidbits. I linked to that page because it updates daily and is easier to link to than the pdf from the Duke media guide. Didn't realize there were so many discrepancies.

  16. #16
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    When Bill Brill wrote his 1986 book, Mayer and Belmont were still in the top 20. Times change.

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    ---Roger Ebert


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    ---Over the Rhine

  17. #17

    freshman ineligibility

    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    I forgot to mention in my post about Ronnie Mayer's mark. Apparently, back in the 50's, there was a rule that allowed schools with small enrollment to be exempt from the freshman ineligibility rule. I don't know the specifics, whether the rule was short lived, or Duke only qualified for a short time, but it allowed Mayer to play his freshman year. The NCAA does not recognize stats from freshman during this period, but Duke does, so it depends on who you ask whether Nolan passed two or three guys tonight.
    Actually, what happened was that the NCAA loosened freshman eligibility during the war years and was slow to close the loophole after VJ day. When they did move to prevent freshman eligibility, their first step was to ban all freshmen from postseason play, while allowing schools and conferences to decide if freshmen could play in the regular season.

    But they ALSO ruled that since you could only play three years, if you played as a freshman, you would be ineligible to play in postseason as a senior -- your fourth year.

    NC State got caught by this rule in 1951. The three seniors on that team -- All-American Sammy Ranzino, All-Southern Conference guard Vic Bubas and Paul Horvath -- had all played as freshmen in 1948. When State edged Duke in the 1951 Southern Conference finals, there was some pressure for the league to send Duke to the NCAA, in place of State -- since the Pack would be without their key three players. But Duke's Eddie Cameron, who ran the league's basketball committee, refused to override the conference champion. State played in the NCAA and actually won one game before losing in the Elite Eight (it was a 16-team tournament that year).

    At the time, the Southern Conference allowed freshmen to play. After his 1951 experience, Case decided not to use freshmen on the varsity. His 1953 freshman class was the best he ever had (Ron Shavlik, Vic Molodet and company), but he elected to keep them on the freshman team (coached by Vic Bubas). That same year, Duke's Harold Bradley had maybe his best recruiting class -- Ronnie Mayer, Joe Belmont and Junior Morgan. He elected to play Mayer and Belmont ... he held out Morgan.

    When the ACC was formed in the spring of 1953, the new league elected to follow the NCAA rule and ban freshmen eligibility. However, they grandfathered in the players who had already played as freshmen, allowing Mayer and Belmont (and others, such as Wake Forest's Dickie Hemric) to play four years.

    The NCAA didn't change its rules -- if Wake had won the ACC in 1955, Hemric would not have been able to play in the NCAA Tournament. The same for Mayer and Belmont, who would have been ineligible for postseason play if Duke had won the 1956 tourney.

    Mayer and Belmont were the ACC's last four-year players until the NCAA changed its rules in 1973.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Actually, what happened was that the NCAA loosened freshman eligibility during the war years and was slow to close the loophole after VJ day. When they did move to prevent freshman eligibility, their first step was to ban all freshmen from postseason play, while allowing schools and conferences to decide if freshmen could play in the regular season.

    But they ALSO ruled that since you could only play three years, if you played as a freshman, you would be ineligible to play in postseason as a senior -- your fourth year.

    NC State got caught by this rule in 1951. The three seniors on that team -- All-American Sammy Ranzino, All-Southern Conference guard Vic Bubas and Paul Horvath -- had all played as freshmen in 1948. When State edged Duke in the 1951 Southern Conference finals, there was some pressure for the league to send Duke to the NCAA, in place of State -- since the Pack would be without their key three players. But Duke's Eddie Cameron, who ran the league's basketball committee, refused to override the conference champion. State played in the NCAA and actually won one game before losing in the Elite Eight (it was a 16-team tournament that year).

    At the time, the Southern Conference allowed freshmen to play. After his 1951 experience, Case decided not to use freshmen on the varsity. His 1953 freshman class was the best he ever had (Ron Shavlik, Vic Molodet and company), but he elected to keep them on the freshman team (coached by Vic Bubas). That same year, Duke's Harold Bradley had maybe his best recruiting class -- Ronnie Mayer, Joe Belmont and Junior Morgan. He elected to play Mayer and Belmont ... he held out Morgan.

    When the ACC was formed in the spring of 1953, the new league elected to follow the NCAA rule and ban freshmen eligibility. However, they grandfathered in the players who had already played as freshmen, allowing Mayer and Belmont (and others, such as Wake Forest's Dickie Hemric) to play four years.

    The NCAA didn't change its rules -- if Wake had won the ACC in 1955, Hemric would not have been able to play in the NCAA Tournament. The same for Mayer and Belmont, who would have been ineligible for postseason play if Duke had won the 1956 tourney.

    Mayer and Belmont were the ACC's last four-year players until the NCAA changed its rules in 1973.
    Sounds good to me. I just took my info from notes in the old Duke Update points list. Here's what they had to say:

    Ronnie Mayer's and Joe Belmont's totals includes their Freshman season in which they played 25 and 22 games, respectively. Freshman eligibility in the 1952-53 season was permitted for schools with small student enrollment. The NCAA does not officially recognize statistics accumulated by freshmen prior to the 1972-73 season. Duke's official records include statistics from Ronnie Mayer's freshman season, but do not include statistics from Joe Belmont's freshman season.

    I wouldn't put too much stock in it though.

  19. #19
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    Nov 2007
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    Delaware
    Late in that first half, it looked like today was going to really hurt Nolan's run, but he came back with a big second half to get 18 points and lead the team in scoring. With that, Nolan is at 1682 for his career, 318 shy of 2000. Here's the latest on what he would need to reach the 2000 mark.

    15 games left: 21.2 ppg
    14 games left: 22.7 ppg
    13 games left: 24.5 ppg
    12 games left: 26.5 ppg
    11 games left: 28.9 ppg
    10 games left: 31.8 ppg
    09 games left: 35.3 ppg
    08 games left: 39.8 ppg

    There is still little movement on what he would need to get there. Since I started following this, it has looked like an Elite Eight trip would be the minimum, but the Final Four would give him a reasonable shot at it. He is still 46 points shy of passing Bobby Hurley for 20th on the all time scoring list, so it will most likely take at least 2 games to get there.

  20. #20
    um, Hancock 4 Duke and SCMatt33, please check with your accountants and get back to us on the correct figures.

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