Originally Posted by
FellowTraveler
Thanks for the encouragement, Saratoga2 & elvis14. As elvis14 notes, others have made many similar points before -- my first post, like this one, constitutes broad thoughts developed over the course of the season, and informed by much of what I’ve read on DBR. I don’t claim to be introducing new concepts, and am definitely responding to broad themes I’ve seen here. I again ask forgiveness for the length of this post, which is my broad take on the season, and offer an assurance that my subsequent posts will be of more manageable scope & length.
I think the plan for this season, with Kyrie at the point, was to run much more than last year and have a much more diversified offense by virtue of Kyrie’s skills as a playmaker and distributor, and to pressure more on defense. Since Kyrie went down, Duke has appeared to try to adopt last year’s model: 3 perimeter scorers and two interior rebounders/screen-setters. The team, and many fans, have been looking for a consistent 3rd scorer to emerge, and for Mason/Miles/Ryan to turn into Zoubek & Thomas. If that’s the model the team continues to follow, I suspect things will continue the way they’ve been going. Duke will be a very good team, capable of reaching Houston, and vulnerable to losing in the 2nd round. I see little reason to expect a significant improvement in either individual players or the team at this point in the season without a change in approach. Your mileage may vary with regard to whether you think such an improvement is necessary.
Personally, I do not think last year’s model fits this team. First, it must be said that last year’s model was extremely unusual. Because it won a national championship, it is natural to view it as The Way To Win. But it’s an approach unlikely to work for most teams. For one thing, few teams ever have a Zoubek-level offensive rebounder and screen-setter. For another, it’s very rare to have three consistent high-volume scorers. Take a look at the Top 25 -- you won’t see many teams with 2 players scoring at least 15 per game and another in double figures. And you won’t see any team with a player scoring 20+ ppg, another 15+ and a third 10+, which is where Duke would be if Seth or someone was scoring a little more. In general, third scorers -- even on the best teams -- aren’t the third scorer every game. Instead, 2-4 players take turns being the third scorer, based on matchups and situations and who happens to be playing well and random chance.
That general model -- a diversified offense in which a variety of players can score in a variety of ways -- suits Duke’s personnel quite well. Mason, Ryan, Kyle, and even Miles are capable interior scorers. (Mason, for example, is making 57 percent of his shots for the season, 65 percent over the past 10 games.) Nolan, Seth, Andre and Kyle are all good-to-great three-point shooters. Nolan is strong off the dribble. Ryan and Kyle and Nolan have solid mid-range games. Etc.
But what that model requires, and what this team hasn’t done particularly well, is consistently getting the ball to players in ways that suit their strengths. That means working to get open threes for Andre, not Ryan. That means feeding the ball to Mason in the post, and Ryan and Kyle working the midrange game. Not just once: Consistently. How many times have we seen, say, Mason score off a good move inside -- then go 15 minutes without getting the ball in the post? Or Andre hit a three -- then not get another chance to score again? (This isn’t just about scoring, btw: Mason is a good passer with excellent court vision for a big. His assists-per-minute rate is significantly better than Singler’s, which is remarkable given how much less he handles the ball. Good things happen when Mason gets the ball. And Ryan is probably better than any other Duke player at feeding the post.) And, as I mentioned in my earlier post, it means giving players the freedom and confidence that comes with knowing they won’t get benched the first time they make a mistake or fail to execute. (Some players have this already -- Kyle, Nolan and maybe even Ryan can miss 3 threes and know they’ll get 3 more. Mason tends to stay on the court despite defensive lapses -- and Nolan and Kyle absolutely do. Andre and Miles have no such margin for error.)
People like to say "Coach K doesn’t believe in positions" and that Duke’s offense is about making reads, not running plays. Yet last year’s model is in some ways a highly structured system in which players have extremely rigid roles: These three are the scorers, these two set screens and try for offensive rebounds, etc. That arguably compartmentalizes players much more than does the traditional 5-position mindset, and leads to a much more predictable and one-dimensional offense. It worked last year, but last year was a unique combination of players.
For both aesthetic and competitive reasons, I’d like to see this Duke team play more in accordance with the principles we tend to talk about -- teamwork, reads, having "players" rather than "positions." To me, that means that everyone is a potential scorer (and everyone is responsible for good ball movement) and the team focuses on getting the ball to whoever is in a position to succeed. When a big has good post position, get them the ball. Run more screens for Andre, or move him to the corner for the threes Ryan tends to take. When the D collapses on a post player, kick it back out, or pass to a cutter. Etc. I think if that were to happen, Mason/Miles/Andre/Ryan would be more productive (collectively, at least. Maybe they wouldn’t all thrive.) And that would make things easier for Nolan & Kyle.
To me, the big what-if of this season (aside from Kyrie) goes back to the Bradley game, when Nolan dished out 10 assists, Andre scored 28 on 17 shots, Miles shot 7-7, and the team made 15-33 three-pointers even with Nolan going 0-4. Nolan scored only 2 points, and didn’t hit a FG, and the story goes that after the game, the coaching staff told him not to worry so much about being a distributor and to score more. And, for all the talk of Nolan having the chance to lead the ACC in scoring & assists, his gaudy assist totals came early in the season: Only 4 games of 7 or more assists since the start of ACC play; averaging 4.2 per game over his past 10.
Prior to the start of ACC play, Nolan was averaging 17.8 ppg on 53% shooting with 5.7 apg. Since ACC play began, he’s at 23.9 ppg on 45% shooting with 4.8 apg. That’s obviously very good. But I have to wonder what would have happened if Nolan had tried to score a little less and distribute a little more. He’d still have scored -- he’s too good not to; the Bradley game wasn’t going to be the norm. But what would Duke look like if Nolan was at 19 or 20 ppg with 6+ assists over the past 19 games, rather than 24 and 4.8? I suspect Mason/Miles/Andre/Ryan/Seth would’ve developed a bit more. Duke would be more balanced. That would make life easier for Nolan & Kyle, who’d be scoring more efficiently as a result. Opposing teams would perhaps commit more fouls as a result of having to defend more scorers. Duke would likely be a better team, and probably a less vulnerable one due to relying less on the 3-pointer, and on two scorers.
Now, the disclaimers: It’s not certain that Nolan could have played more of a hybrid role; he has sometimes (not always) appeared to have a “scoring” mode and a “distributing” mode, and doesn’t blend them well. And I am absolutely not suggesting he’s selfish: I believe that he’s playing the role he’s been assigned, and doing it at a very high level.
I’m actually pretty content with Duke’s D. Like many, I'd pull back the pressure a bit against big/long/athletic teams like UNC & St. Johns and focus on not giving up open looks within 16 feet and grabbing rebounds rather than trying to force turnovers. (This is one area in which I would like to be more like last year’s team.) And I firmly believe that the best (indirect) defensive strategy Duke should emphasize more is getting opposing players in foul trouble by going right at people who have 2 or 3, particularly if they are important players.
Finally, since I’m new here, I should probably stress that I’m quite fond of every player on this team. I’ve been watching Duke basketball closely since the late 1980s, and there has rarely been a team with as many players I like as much as this one. To the extent that I offer criticisms of the team’s play, it is simply out of a desire to see the team, and each player, be in a position to succeed.