Bracketology - The Home Stretch

[SCMatt33]

If anyone steals a #1, it looks right now as if it might be San Diego St. They're absolutely punishing BYU right now, well on their way to avenging their only two losses. It's pretty tough to argue with the resume of a team who has beaten every team they've played this season.

I think you can argue that when it's not really the same team that beat you twice. BYU's current team isn't even playing like an NCAA team, let alone a top ten team. Since Davies got suspended, BYU has split a pair with an NIT team, struggled with two outside the top 150 teams (TCU and Wyoming), and gotten crushed by the only NCAA team they played (SDSU), with all of those games either at home or at a neutral site. Fortunately for BYU, they will get judged on more than just the last 5 games, but SDSU will only get credit for beating the guys who were on the floor. Other than this, their only wins against projected at-large quality NCAA teams are a 7 seed (albeit 3 times), a 10 seed, and an 11 seed. Their record vs the top 50 is just 5-2 (with one of those wins against a depleted BYU) and BYU is the only top 25 team they played.

Had they done this against a full strength BYU team, they would have had a great case, but they really lack that top end win, and they sort of got robbed at getting a crack at it because of Brandon Davies. It's pretty weird that Davies could actually end up hurting both BYU and SDSU.

[El_Diablo]

With SDSU crushing BYU, I think they are likely to get a #2 seed. Assuming that, I can't think of a scenario in which they don't go to Anaheim (all other likely #2 seeds have a closer option elsewhere). I believe the same holds true even if SDSU gets a #3 seed, and definitely if they get the last #1 seed.

So with SDSU all but locked into the Anaheim region, that means BYU is extremely unlikely to end up there due to the committee's desire to split up conference foes whenever possible. Since they can't play on Sundays, BYU is not going to Newark or San Antonio (the Friday/Sunday regions) and thus will in all likelihood go to the New Orleans region as a #3 or #4 seed. I guess we could also have #2 SDSU and #4 BYU out west (since they wouldn't play each other until the Elite Eight)...but I think the committee will split them up.

[SCMatt33]

With SDSU crushing BYU, I think they are likely to get a #2 seed. Assuming that, I can't think of a scenario in which they don't go to Anaheim (all other likely #2 seeds have a closer option elsewhere). I believe the same holds true even if SDSU gets a #3 seed, and definitely if they get the last #1 seed.

So with SDSU all but locked into the Anaheim region, that means BYU is extremely unlikely to end up there due to the committee's desire to split up conference foes whenever possible. Since they can't play on Sundays, BYU is not going to Newark or San Antonio (the Friday/Sunday regions) and thus will in all likelihood go to the New Orleans region as a #3 or #4 seed. I guess we could also have #2 SDSU and #4 BYU out west (since they wouldn't play each other until the Elite Eight)...but I think the committee will split them up.

Actually, the committee has to split them up by rule. The first three teams in from a conference must go in different regions. You would think that BYU ends up in New Orleans, but if other bracketing principles make it tough to do this, they could still end up out west and SDSU ends up in NO. Last year for example, New Mexico was a 3 seed, but was sent to the East while BYU as a 7 seed got to stay out west. There are a host of bracket principles that need to be followed and sometimes, and mid major teams are easier to move around the bracket since without as many fellow conference members to deal with, there are fewer roadblocks. I think as a 2 seed, SDSU would end up high enough to be above that fray, unlike New Mexico last year, but you never know.

[InSpades]

These bracketologists are IDIOTS. Watching ESPN and they are seriously saying that UNC is ahead of Duke right now. How is that even possible? Did UNC pass Duke in the last 2 days by squeaking out wins against Miami and Clemson?

For those who missed it... they had 3 guys on (one of them was Lunardi) and 2 of the 3 of them said that UNC should get a #1 if they beat Duke, but Duke wouldn't get a #1 if they beat UNC. The other said that Notre Dame should get the 4th #1 seed regardless.

This after looking at a stat where UNC is 2-4 vs. the RPI top 50 and Duke is 7-2 (Notre Dame was 11-5).

[ice-9]

Are you sure one of the three was Lunardi? Because his position is that Duke is currently 5th and will pass Notre Dame if we win the ACC tournament.

The crux of the argument -- championed by that hater Gottlieb -- is that Duke's non-conference wins all came when we had Kyrie on the team and thus those wins don't "count."

Sigh.

Isn't it ironic how when Michigan St, Kansas St and Butler were underperforming the analysts said we hadn't beaten anyone good?

Now that Michigtan St, Kansas St and Butler are performing again (and NCAA tournament teams, plus Marquette), the analysts are now saying those wins don't count because we got them with Kyrie?

Of course no one points out how we had two really good wins against UNC and Temple without Kyrie.

If we beat UNC again tomorrow, I don't see how we can't get a 1 seed. This is ours to lose.

[g-money]

The talking heads on ESPN's College Basketball Final are on right now and they're driving me nuts. First they're blathering as if it's a foregone conclusion that UNC is going to win tomorrow, which I find offensive because I think we are playing better basketball than Carolina right now. Then they're saying that if UNC wins tomorrow, they should be a #1 seed, but if Duke wins, Notre Dame should get the last #1 seed and we should be a 2.

So let me get this straight: If we beat the team you all think should be the last #1 seed, then we deserve to drop to the #2 seed despite being 30-4, ranked 4 in the RPI, and 2 in Pomeroy???

To me this is a classic case of ESPN's anti-Duke bias. If we beat the Heels tomorrow - which I am confident we will - we flat out deserve the last #1. And if we get it, let the talking heads continue to whine. It worked out pretty well last year when we supposedly stole the last #1 from West Virginia.

[CrsDvls]

These bracketologists are IDIOTS. Watching ESPN and they are seriously saying that UNC is ahead of Duke right now. How is that even possible? Did UNC pass Duke in the last 2 days by squeaking out wins against Miami and Clemson?

For those who missed it... they had 3 guys on (one of them was Lunardi) and 2 of the 3 of them said that UNC should get a #1 if they beat Duke, but Duke wouldn't get a #1 if they beat UNC. The other said that Notre Dame should get the 4th #1 seed regardless.

This after looking at a stat where UNC is 2-4 vs. the RPI top 50 and Duke is 7-2 (Notre Dame was 11-5).

I almost threw my remote listening to these idiots. I have no idea how they can even consider Carolina as a #1. One of those fools even said the fact they are winning close games is a good sign????? This is why I try not to listen to any show that the alarmingly not athletic and stupid Gottleib is on.

[lotusland]

The talking heads on ESPN's College Basketball Final are on right now and they're driving me nuts. First they're blathering as if it's a foregone conclusion that UNC is going to win tomorrow, which I find offensive because I think we are playing better basketball than Carolina right now. Then they're saying that if UNC wins tomorrow, they should be a #1 seed, but if Duke wins, Notre Dame should get the last #1 seed and we should be a 2.

So let me get this straight: If we beat the team you all think should be the last #1 seed, then we deserve to drop to the #2 seed despite being 30-4, ranked 4 in the RPI, and 2 in Pomeroy???

To me this is a classic case of ESPN's anti-Duke bias. If we beat the Heels tomorrow - which I am confident we will - we flat out deserve the last #1. And if we get it, let the talking heads continue to whine. It worked out pretty well last year when we supposedly stole the last #1 from West Virginia.

I just listened to the same segment. This is why I don't have cable at home. I just end up wasting time watching nonsense. No doubt the logic is absurd. Carolina is playing great right now but Duke's ranking is based on Kyrie. Yet if we beat the great Carolina team 2 out of 3 w/o Kyrie Duke doesn't get a 1 seed. Fortunately if Duke wins Sunday they will be a #1 seed regardless of what theses buffoons think should happen.

[juise]

Now that Michigtan St, Kansas St and Butler are performing again (and NCAA tournament teams, plus Marquette), the analysts are now saying those wins don't count because we got them with Kyrie?

If we applied the same logic to BYU's loss of Brandon Davies, I suppose the Cougars would be in the NIT, right?

Next thing you know, the analysts will be saying that Carolina's first five losses don't count because they had the misfortune of having to play with LDII.

[dukelifer]

These bracketologists are IDIOTS. Watching ESPN and they are seriously saying that UNC is ahead of Duke right now. How is that even possible? Did UNC pass Duke in the last 2 days by squeaking out wins against Miami and Clemson?

For those who missed it... they had 3 guys on (one of them was Lunardi) and 2 of the 3 of them said that UNC should get a #1 if they beat Duke, but Duke wouldn't get a #1 if they beat UNC. The other said that Notre Dame should get the 4th #1 seed regardless.

This after looking at a stat where UNC is 2-4 vs. the RPI top 50 and Duke is 7-2 (Notre Dame was 11-5).

Of course UNC should get the 1 seed- they have beaten Duke- even though Duke itself is not that good, according to the experts. Makes perfect sense to me. UNC is getting a lot of love because of all the Duke hate. Truth is that in the last 9 games- UNC has been in 5 very close games in which they could have lost. If they had lost 2 of those 5- this would not even be a conversation.

[El_Diablo]

Actually, the committee has to split them up by rule. The first three teams in from a conference must go in different regions. You would think that BYU ends up in New Orleans, but if other bracketing principles make it tough to do this, they could still end up out west and SDSU ends up in NO. Last year for example, New Mexico was a 3 seed, but was sent to the East while BYU as a 7 seed got to stay out west. There are a host of bracket principles that need to be followed and sometimes, and mid major teams are easier to move around the bracket since without as many fellow conference members to deal with, there are fewer roadblocks. I think as a 2 seed, SDSU would end up high enough to be above that fray, unlike New Mexico last year, but you never know.

Ah, thanks. I knew that the committee will spread the top conference opponents so as to ensure they don't meet before the regional finals, but I completely forgot about the top-3-in-different-regions principle.

I'm not sure if the New Mexico placement had something else at play (maybe they were the last #3 seed and took what was left? or maybe the committee shuffled a couple teams to rebalance? or maybe one of the other #3 seeds had to go out west for some reason?), but I see your point and agree that something similar could always happen with SDSU.

[InSpades]

Are you sure one of the three was Lunardi?

I think it was actually Fran Fraschilla (not Lunardi). Either way the entire segment was beyond dumb and made anyone watching it stupider (as others have pointed out).

You could make an argument that Notre Dame would stay as a #1 even if Duke won. However the argument that UNC would get a #1 w/ a win but Duke would not is entirely absurd. I can't find a single rankings that put UNC ahead of Duke going into the ACC tournament.

[mkline09]

I think it was actually Fran Fraschilla (not Lunardi). Either way the entire segment was beyond dumb and made anyone watching it stupider (as others have pointed out).

You could make an argument that Notre Dame would stay as a #1 even if Duke won. However the argument that UNC would get a #1 w/ a win but Duke would not is entirely absurd. I can't find a single rankings that put UNC ahead of Duke going into the ACC tournament.

I'm not certain that you can put Notre Dame ahead of Duke if Duke wins. For starters, if the conference tournaments count for anything, then you'd have to consider the Irish got knocked out in its first game in it conference tournament. If Duke wins it, I'd think that would trump Notre Dame in the minds of the selection committee considering the NCAA Tournament is played on a "neutral court" like the conference tournaments.

[Atlanta Duke]

Seth Davis tweeted that he thinks the UNC-Duke winner gets #1 in the west and the loser gets #2 in the south.

http://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/st...07824495050752

He has Kansas, Ohio State and Pitt as the other three #1 seeds

http://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/st...12470974365697

[dbd4ever]

Lunardi just said that the number one seeds are likely set(Ohio state, pitt, Kansas, and nd) and won't be revisited except maybe in the case of a Carolina win, since they would be try season and tourney camps. He said that the one seeds are usually set before the ACC tourney championship game is over. This whole process and train of thought just baffled me sometimes.

[SCMatt33]

I don't see how UNC could possibly get a 1 seed right now, even if they destroy us today. Right now, they are just 2-4 against RPI top 50, and would be 3-4 at best if they won today. Here is the official RPI as of this morning, as in the one that the committee actually uses. Right now, there are no ACC teams other than Duke and UNC in the top 50, and UNC's only good non-conference win was against Kentucky at home (BTW, who didn't beat Kentucky at home). I should note that that record is much worse than it was when the committee first met, as FSU and BC, whom Carolina went 4-0 against were both in the top 50, and they are a staggering 11-0 vs. RPI 51-75, but that is pretty ridiculous that they are only 2-4 vs. the top 50 and still in the mix for a one seed.

[MarkD83]

In the "Does it matter what seed you get" thread there is a nice statistically analysis based on winning percentage of why you want a number 1 seed. In the Wall Street Journal I read an article about how to fill out your bracket. The key stats there were 1) margin of victory and 2) "possession creation", which was rebounding margin plus turnover margin. Duke ranked very high in each of these and on that basis could be a number 1 seed. The bottom line is that if Duke is a number 2, the number 1 seed in that region will complain that Duke is also in that region.

[1 24 90]

Lunardi's latest projection has the Southeast Region with Notre Dame #1, Duke#2, BYU #3. I wouldn't complain about this.

By the way, Go Dayton Flyers, my alma mater!!

[MarkD83]

Adding to my previous comment, here is the latest Barcketology.
This would be a great bracket for Duke. I don't care if Duke is a #2.

SOUTHEAST (New Orleans)
1Notre Dame 16AKRON
8Missouri 9GONZAGA
5Arizona 12Virginia Tech / 12Saint Mary's
4Wisconsin 13OAKLAND
6Kansas St 11Michigan St
3Brigham Young 14WOFFORD
7Cincinnati 10Tennessee
2Duke 15NORTH CAROLINA-ASHEVILLE

[duke4ever19]

Not that I want Duke to lose today... but the bracket projection listed above my post would be more than ideal. Wouldn't mind being a #2 in that bracket one bit