Pitt and Notre Dame both lose in the Big East Tournament. IMHO, Duke is two ACC win away from a #1 NCAA seed.
Pitt and Notre Dame both lose in the Big East Tournament. IMHO, Duke is two ACC win away from a #1 NCAA seed.
I'm not sure how much I want a piece of the Jimmer. I get the feeling he's gearing up for the kind of NCAAT Steph Curry had 3 years ago.
I agree with 4decade's post, btw. Pitt and ND left the door cracked for us. Now we've just got to have Nolan's toe heal up enough to kick it open.
I'm not Joe Lunardi, but I did stay in a Holiday Express last night. Here's my take, going into Saturday's game.
(1) ACC gets five bids. Clemson and Virginia Tech locked up their spaces Friday. BC played their way out. They're not out by much, but they have no chance to improve their resume, while Alabama and Penn State, also in the last four out, have a chance to win a spot in the field.
(2) Virginia Tech still has something to play for. Lose to Duke today and they go to Dayton for the play-in quadrupleheader. Win today and they go straight to the frst round. Clemson could fall to a spot in Dayton (especially if Va Tech beats Duke), so they need to win today too.
(3) Ohio State, Kansas and Pitt (even with their BE Tournament loss) are certain No. 1 seeds. I think Notre Dame and Purdue are out of the mix with their semifinal losses. That leaves:
(1) The ACC champion, provdied its Duke or Carolina -- and especially if one beats the other in the title game (as opposed to getting an easy path with a semifinal upset today).
(2) The Mountain West champion. BYU and San Diego State both made it to the finals. BYU looked like the favorite for the fourth No. 1 before losing Davies, then looked out after losing him and losing big at home to New Mexico. But they avenged that defeat in the MW semis and if they beat SD State for a third time, they could be back in the picture. But SD State has only lost twice this year -- both times to BYU with Davies. If they beat the Davies-less Cougars, they could get it.
(3) Maybe, MAYBE Texas, if they beat Kansas again in the Big 12 Finals. But I think they probably have too many losses.
I think Duke's win over Maryland solidified Duke as at least a No. 2 seed -- UNLESS the news comes out that Nolan is finished. That would force the committee to drop Duke in the seedings. Otherwise, I can't see anything less than a No. 2 seed, even with a loss to VPI today (with or wirthout an injured Nolan).
I think San Diego State gets it if they win. They'd be "undefeated" against current teams in college basketball (since BYU with Davies doesn't exist anymore), and the Mountain West isn't significantly worse than the ACC this year, if it's even worse at all. That three game sweep over UNLV is a big boost for them, as is Gonzaga winning the WCC.
I disagree. I think Pitt dropped from the #1 line with the earlier loss in the BE tourney. ND moved up to the #1 line by virtue of winning the head-to-head versus Pitt on Pitt's home floor. I think Ohio State, Kansas, and ND are the certain #1s at the moment, with Duke or UNC, Pitt, and Texas as the three other possibilities. I don't see SDSU getting the nod over any of these teams -- I think they're locked in as a 2 seed. At the moment, if Duke and UNC both fail to reach the ACC finals, I think Pitt gets the last #1 [unless Texas wins the Big 12, in which case they may get it]. If Duke and/or UNC reach the finals, then the ACC gets the last 1 seed [if only one makes it, then that team gets it; if both make it, then it goes to the winner]. Duke will be no worse than a 2 seed regardless of today's outcome.
one question - doesn't the committee regularly say that they don't have time to base the bracket on the outcome of the ACC Final? If so today could clinch a #1. Of course UNC and Duke (if they were playing tomorrow) seem like two teams that would be easy to pencil in and then "switch" based on the outcome - provided the committee felt the winner was due a 1 seed and the loser a 2 seed...
I believe there have been several years when they left a couple high slots open depending on the winner of the ACC championhip game. Examples include:
1991 - UNC beats Duke in ACC final. Unc gets #1 in East, Duke gets #2
1995 - Wake beats unc in ACC final. Wake gets #1; unc gets #2
1998 - UNC gets preferable #1 seed due to defeat of Duke in ACC championship game.
2001 - Duke beats unc in ACC final when Carlos Boozer's status is uncertain. Duke gets #1 overall seed. Unc dumped to #2.
2004 - Duke dropped from best overall #1 due to loss in acc final to Maryland.
These are just the most obvious examples. But the committee absolutely plans around the outcomes of Sunday games. I presume they have most of the bracket set except for a couple either/or contingencies. If it's a Duke/unc ACC final, I'll bet they'll keep a #1 and a #2 open this year.
Exactly. Thus my point -- if only one of Duke/UNC makes the ACC finals, that team gets the last 1 seed. If both, then the winner gets it. If neither, then I think the last 1 will likely go to Pitt, due to the fact that the Big East is hands down the best league this year, thus the regular season BE champ gets the nod. Texas winning the Big 12 could give reason to pause, but I still think Pitt would get it.
As of today, not taking into account a potential Hokie win against us, how does Va Tech have a better resume than BC? Va Tech has ONE advantage on BC and that's its home win over us. Other than that, BC has the edge or is tied in every other category, and swept Va Tech on the season, including in a crucial bubble buster game last week AT Virginia Tech on their senior night.
The bubble is soft this year, and usually, neither really deserve it, but I'm just not seeing why Va Tech gets the advantage as of today. At all.
Harvard is #36 in the RPI, I believe, and would likely be seeded around a 12 if they get in with a win over Princeton today. A loss to Harvard this year is by no means a bad loss. And Harvard [if they make it] might actually be a good bet for a first round upset of a 4 or 5 seed.
With resumes that similar, a season sweep tells me who the better team actually is. I know it's not a huge factor for the selection committee, but if it ends up being BETWEEN BC and Va Tech for a spot, then that head to head has to carry a ton of weight as to who is better. If they have Va Tech several spots ahead of BC, I guess I'll understand, but I'll disagree.
Let's not go overboard? VaTech's RPI is essentially double that of Harvard's (mid-60s to mid-30s). It's conceivable, given the season we've seen of bubble teams intent on playing themselves out of the tourney, that Harvard could receive an at-large regardless of today's outcome. As I said, a loss to Harvard this year is not a bad loss, regardless of where it occurs. I'm sure Colorado [who likely played themselves in this week] and BC would both agree.
Yale? Agree -- not a good loss. Kinda like a loss to GaTech this season.
Anyone else think the winner tomorrow gets the #1 seed in the South? The loser could actually steal the #1 seed in the West because of the Pitt/ND losses.
Think the winner gets the last #1 and the loser gets a 2. Don't think the committee will give a team (Notre Dame) who didn't win either the regular season title or the conference tournament a spot on the top line. But I do think they'll still give Pitt (the reg. season champ) a 1.
That wasn't true 2 years ago when Louisville won the regular season outright and the tournament, but both Pitt and UConn got one seeds without either.
If we do lose tomorrow, our regional placement will be very interesting. We could easily be below Ohio State, Pitt, ND, and UNC on the S-curve with three of them getting one seeds and the fourth would get the 2 in the East (Newark being closer to those schools than any other regional site). Even if we stay ahead of Texas on the S-curve, they will get put in New Orleans ahead of us since they can't be in San Antonio with Kansas (first three in from a conference must be in different regions). That could mean that we essentially take UNC's spot on today's ESPN Bracketology. The only thing that could get us into New Orleans is that Texas' loss drops them to a three seed, but that would require two out of SDSU, BYU, Florida, UConn, and Louisville to pass/stay ahead of them.
If anyone steals a #1, it looks right now as if it might be San Diego St. They're absolutely punishing BYU right now, well on their way to avenging their only two losses. It's pretty tough to argue with the resume of a team who has beaten every team they've played this season.