Page 1 of 7 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 133
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles

    Bracketology - The Home Stretch

    Mods, of course feel free to move/merge this into something existing, but other than the Lunardi thread, I didn't see anything really dedicated to this topic of obvious interest to everyone, and our discussion of it shouldn't be tied to Lunardi, right?

    In any event, Lunardi and most others do still have us as a #1, in the west. Lunardi's got BYU as our #2, with a 4-5 matchup of Louisville-Arizona. Syracuse is the 3.

    I don't think we could realistically expect any better draw than that, and I would welcome it. There's not much question in my mind that, should the matchup materialize, we would have a much better chance against BYU than against teams like Pitt, Kansas, OSU, and some other Big East teams.

    In order for this scenario to occur, unless I'm mistaken, what we need to do is of course win the ACC Tournament, and then hope that perhaps BYU loses in the finals of their tournament to San Diego State. If they lose earlier, they could drop to a 3. It would also help if Notre Dame lost in the BET to foreclose any chance of their jumping us as a #1 seed.

    Also, for those more in the know, correct me if I'm wrong as to this: Our chances to be paired with BYU in the west are far better with us as the #1 and them as the #2 than vice versa, because if we're a #2 the committee would do us the "favor" of keeping us closer to home and likely put us in New Orleans, presumably against Pitt, rather than do the simple S-curve thing and put us, as the overall #5, against presumed overall #4 BYU. Is that right?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Southern Pines, NC
    Unless we stumble and crumble this weekend, I don't see us falling any lower than a 2 seed. We have a good chance to win next Sunday, so I wouldn't lose so much faith that we could fall to a #5. And, if we do win next Sunday, we could very easily find ourselves as a #1 seed again. Those folks in the Big East are facing a potentially hazardous chore this weekend, also. They have some strange ways up there, so who knows what to expect. When it comes to region assignments, Lunardi is guessing, just like the rest of us. I'll be printing out his last Bracketology before the drawings are announced Sunday evening, so I can see just how accurate he is.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Jarhead View Post
    Unless we stumble and crumble this weekend, I don't see us falling any lower than a 2 seed. We have a good chance to win next Sunday, so I wouldn't lose so much faith that we could fall to a #5. And, if we do win next Sunday, we could very easily find ourselves as a #1 seed again. Those folks in the Big East are facing a potentially hazardous chore this weekend, also. They have some strange ways up there, so who knows what to expect. When it comes to region assignments, Lunardi is guessing, just like the rest of us. I'll be printing out his last Bracketology before the drawings are announced Sunday evening, so I can see just how accurate he is.
    I said we could be the overall #5 on the S-curve, which theoretically would mean we should be paired in a regional with the overall #4, which is the #1 seed that is considered the be the least strong of the four #1's. Of course we won't be a #5 seed in the tournament, as in a #5 who plays a #12 in the first round. No matter what happens in Greensboro, we're going to be a 1 or a 2.

  4. #4
    Well I don't see any way BYU gets a 1 seed. I guess beating SD St. without Davies might make the committee reconsider but Duke, ND, or even UNC seem to be in a better position than BYU. However, I do believe getting the 1 out West would benefit Duke most. If they don't win the ACCT, I see them falling on the S-curve to around 8-10 which might benefit them b/c then whoever is ahead of them in terms of teams like UNC, ND, or Texas would take the tougher brackets if the committee follows the distance rule as closely as Lunardi and other analysts who went through the fake process are claiming.
    So best case scenario would be that Duke gets the 1 out West with either SD St. or BYU as their 2. But it will be difficult for Duke to get the 2 seed out West since BYU or SD St. would have preference so Duke might be better served falling to the top 3 and then going out West and going through BYU/SD St. and ND as opposed to seeing a team like Syracuse and Pitt/OSU.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    Lightbulb

    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    Well I don't see any way BYU gets a 1 seed. I guess beating SD St. without Davies might make the committee reconsider but Duke, ND, or even UNC seem to be in a better position than BYU. However, I do believe getting the 1 out West would benefit Duke most. If they don't win the ACCT, I see them falling on the S-curve to around 8-10 which might benefit them b/c then whoever is ahead of them in terms of teams like UNC, ND, or Texas would take the tougher brackets if the committee follows the distance rule as closely as Lunardi and other analysts who went through the fake process are claiming.
    So best case scenario would be that Duke gets the 1 out West with either SD St. or BYU as their 2. But it will be difficult for Duke to get the 2 seed out West since BYU or SD St. would have preference so Duke might be better served falling to the top 3 and then going out West and going through BYU/SD St. and ND as opposed to seeing a team like Syracuse and Pitt/OSU.
    Given Duke's residence among the top eight for the whole year, I would find it very improbable that Duke could fall out of a #2 seed. I suppose it is possible if they played very poorly and lost on Friday. But assuming that they make it to Sunday, or even if just to Sat. but play well, then I see us as a solid #2. Don't forget that a lot of those 5-10 ranked teams have been losing lately too. And ND is not the favorite in the Big East (though I might see the BE winner - if Pitt or ND - getting a #1 seed).

    Similarly, I just don't see how NC jumps from a #18 ranking as of 9 days ago, all the way to a #1 seed by this Sunday. Yes they've moved up, but I think the best they can HOPE for is a #2 seed, and a #3 seems the most likely (and a #4 is still possible with a poor ACCT outcome). There are just too many teams with fewer losses between them and a #1 seed.

    In sum, Duke is probably a #2 (hopefully in the same region as BYU or another relatively weak #1 -- ND?), with a decent shot at a #1 if they win the ACCT. Only a ACCT "crash and burn" drops them to a #3 seed. NC is likely a #3 seed, but could move up to #2 with an ACCT win, and could fall to #4 (though unlikely, depending on other top-12 teams) with an early ACCT exit.

    Unrelated, but if anyone is interested, USA-Today has a poll up for the best Duke player of all time. They'll be doing this for about 15 top teams in the comings days...
    http://content.usatoday.com/communit...duke-history/1


    -BDBD

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Everywhere

    Don't sweat the ones and twos

    I'm not terribly optimistic about being in the same bracket with BYU, because I'm convinced that BYU won't make it to the Elite 8, so Duke wouldn't have a chance to square off. There will be no easy road to the final four, regardless of match-up. I'd rather Duke be a #2 to a perceived world-beater like Ohio State or Pitt, and assume the "underdog" role in the bracket.
    I do, however, want to see my two least favorite teams - UNC and Kansas in the same bracket: 1 - So Roy has to play his old team again and 2) so that at least one of them is guaranteed to not make the final four. Hate UNC and Kansas. C'mon committee, stick them togther.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Columbia, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record.
    A) Incredibly soft bubble

    B) Expanded field

    C) I don't personally believe that both BC and Clemson can make the NCAAT. One of those teams is going to end up on Friday afternoon with a head-to-head loss to a direct bubble competitor...and the team that wins won't have added such a substantial W that they immediately erase themselves from bubble discussion.

    If one of those two teams is more likely to be able to survive a Friday loss - it's BC. They're RPI and SOS are much stronger than Clemson's. They also have a Top 50 RPI win over Texas A&M (Clemson has zero Top 50 RPI Ws outside of ACC competition.)

    VaTech cannot afford to lose on ACC Friday either, in my opinion. It's just that they're losing is not directly tied to a bubble competitor's winning.

    It would sure help all of the ACC bubble teams for Colorado, Baylor, Michigan, Alabama/Georgia and Marquette to all tank in their respective tournaments. If even two of those teams soldify themselves with deep runs that makes the bubble all the less soft.

    Likewise we need as few "bid thieves" as possible, starting with ODU taking out VCU tonight.

  9. #9
    In Lunardi's just completed chat (this was my personal question, actually):

    Q: If Duke and Notre Dame both win their respective tourneys (and beat the teams they're expected to play; i.e., no upsets in earlier rounds), who gets the last #1 seed?
    A: I'd vote Notre Dame, Doug, just as I would have today. Deep down, though, I still think the Committee stays with Duke.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record.
    That's a very tenuous thing. Remember, both are in the last four in, and there hasn't been any bid stealing. With ODU in pretty good shape for an at-large, VCU could steal a bid out of the colonial. Once all of the conference tourneys are done, you could see a couple of teams currently in the last 4 in get pushed out through no fault of their own. It happens every year.

    As for Duke, I think that we almost control our own destiny for a 1-seed. The caveat is that if ND wins the Big East against Pitt, and Duke wins the ACC against a bunch of underdogs (think last year), I could see ND passing us. Going through the Big East gives them a stronger schedule (at the top anyway, I don't think the committee cares too much whether you played team's 150 or 350, which is part of the reason overall SOS is similar for both). With more top end wins, I could see them ahead of us even with an extra loss.

    I don't even know how it came up here that Duke could fall below a two. Lunadi's 3-seeds are currently Purdue, SDSU, Syracuse, and Florida. Given their resumes, I don't see how one of them could pass us. The only other way it could happen is if teams are switched to meet bracketing principles, but the normal protocol is to switch lower seeds to make that happen, not higher seeds.
    Pratt '09
    GO DUKE!

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by rotogod00 View Post
    In Lunardi's just completed chat (this was my personal question, actually):

    Q: If Duke and Notre Dame both win their respective tourneys (and beat the teams they're expected to play; i.e., no upsets in earlier rounds), who gets the last #1 seed?
    A: I'd vote Notre Dame, Doug, just as I would have today. Deep down, though, I still think the Committee stays with Duke.
    That would be awesome. Who cares if it brings out all the Duke haters and conspiracy theorists. If we get an easier road the Final Four, I am all for it. Same with the ACCT. I would love for UNC to lose in the QF or SF round if it helps us.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieinSoCal View Post
    That would be awesome. Who cares if it brings out all the Duke haters and conspiracy theorists. If we get an easier road the Final Four, I am all for it. Same with the ACCT. I would love for UNC to lose in the QF or SF round if it helps us.

    as someone said...."i'd just have to live with that"...
    "Either we're going down, or they are....... Kirk out!"

  13. #13
    Of course nobody would expect this new BYU team to make the E8 but the point is would you rather play the 3 seed or the 2 seed. If the bracket is Duke/BYU, they probably get the top 3 seed but I would much rather see Purdue or Florida than Texas or ND in the E8.

  14. #14
    And I'm not saying Duke will fall to a 3, but that they might be better served falling to a 3. I think it is a distinct possibility if they lose Saturday or even Sunday and things work against/for them. If they lose to UNC, UNC would jump them. If ND beats a ranked team, they could jump them. If Purdue goes to the B10 final, they might jump Duke. If Texas goes to B12 final, they would probably jump Duke. And if SD St. or BYU wins their tourney, they would probably jump Duke. It is a lot of ifs but if Duke loses 3 games in the last 2 weeks and has no big wins while Texas, ND, and Purdue are beating ranked teams, they might get jumped. But if they are the top 3, then they probably go out West with ND and BYU/SD St. unless UNC snakes the last 1 and doesn't jump Pitt. But even if they are a weak 2, there is almost no way to go out West unless both SD St. and BYU both drop to a 3 seed which seems unlikely b/c apparently this year, the committee is putting the utmost importance on distance to the regional site.

    Duke should get the last 1 if they win the ACCT but if not they will most likely get the 2 seed opposite OSU or Pitt. They would conceivably get an easier 3 seed but I would much rather see a 3 next to their name and ND in their bracket than a 2 and OSU/Pitt in their bracket.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeWarhead View Post
    I'm not terribly optimistic about being in the same bracket with BYU, because I'm convinced that BYU won't make it to the Elite 8, so Duke wouldn't have a chance to square off. There will be no easy road to the final four, regardless of match-up. I'd rather Duke be a #2 to a perceived world-beater like Ohio State or Pitt, and assume the "underdog" role in the bracket.
    I do, however, want to see my two least favorite teams - UNC and Kansas in the same bracket: 1 - So Roy has to play his old team again and 2) so that at least one of them is guaranteed to not make the final four. Hate UNC and Kansas. C'mon committee, stick them togther.
    I live in Columbus, OH and I am hoping that UNC is OSU's #2 so that will keep at least one of them out of the Final Four.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Please, not in Charlotte with the Heels. Anything else is okay with me.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Please, not in Charlotte with the Heels. Anything else is okay with me.
    That's pretty much a given at this point.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Dillon, Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    That's pretty much a given at this point.
    I'm not sure what could happen for both of us not to be sent to Charlotte. Even if a meteor falls on downtown they'd probably just move the games to the original Coliseum on Independence Boulevard.
    As suburban children we floated at night in swimming pools the temperature of blood. -- Douglas Coupland

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Southern Pines, NC
    Just looked at Lunardi's brackets. He still has Duke as a #1 seed in the West in today's version. I'm just saying. UNC is a #2 in the Southwest.

  20. #20
    Keep in mind that BYU has to be put in a Thursday-Saturday regional, either New Orleans or Anaheim. They also have to be put in a Thursday-Saturday pod (Denver, Tampa, Tucson, or Washington).

Similar Threads

  1. Rough 4-game stretch for our big guys
    By CDu in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 53
    Last Post: 02-02-2010, 01:29 PM
  2. Home Refinance/Home Equity Question
    By Rich in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 01-07-2009, 05:12 PM
  3. Duke Home-and-Home with Memphis?
    By BlueintheFace in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 10-30-2008, 11:24 AM
  4. G'Town Home/Home alternate years
    By Lotus000 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 26
    Last Post: 08-03-2007, 12:38 PM
  5. J.J. Was Tired Down the Stretch
    By dockfan in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 03-16-2007, 09:48 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •