Mods, of course feel free to move/merge this into something existing, but other than the Lunardi thread, I didn't see anything really dedicated to this topic of obvious interest to everyone, and our discussion of it shouldn't be tied to Lunardi, right?
In any event, Lunardi and most others do still have us as a #1, in the west. Lunardi's got BYU as our #2, with a 4-5 matchup of Louisville-Arizona. Syracuse is the 3.
I don't think we could realistically expect any better draw than that, and I would welcome it. There's not much question in my mind that, should the matchup materialize, we would have a much better chance against BYU than against teams like Pitt, Kansas, OSU, and some other Big East teams.
In order for this scenario to occur, unless I'm mistaken, what we need to do is of course win the ACC Tournament, and then hope that perhaps BYU loses in the finals of their tournament to San Diego State. If they lose earlier, they could drop to a 3. It would also help if Notre Dame lost in the BET to foreclose any chance of their jumping us as a #1 seed.
Also, for those more in the know, correct me if I'm wrong as to this: Our chances to be paired with BYU in the west are far better with us as the #1 and them as the #2 than vice versa, because if we're a #2 the committee would do us the "favor" of keeping us closer to home and likely put us in New Orleans, presumably against Pitt, rather than do the simple S-curve thing and put us, as the overall #5, against presumed overall #4 BYU. Is that right?
Unless we stumble and crumble this weekend, I don't see us falling any lower than a 2 seed. We have a good chance to win next Sunday, so I wouldn't lose so much faith that we could fall to a #5. And, if we do win next Sunday, we could very easily find ourselves as a #1 seed again. Those folks in the Big East are facing a potentially hazardous chore this weekend, also. They have some strange ways up there, so who knows what to expect. When it comes to region assignments, Lunardi is guessing, just like the rest of us. I'll be printing out his last Bracketology before the drawings are announced Sunday evening, so I can see just how accurate he is.
Well I don't see any way BYU gets a 1 seed. I guess beating SD St. without Davies might make the committee reconsider but Duke, ND, or even UNC seem to be in a better position than BYU. However, I do believe getting the 1 out West would benefit Duke most. If they don't win the ACCT, I see them falling on the S-curve to around 8-10 which might benefit them b/c then whoever is ahead of them in terms of teams like UNC, ND, or Texas would take the tougher brackets if the committee follows the distance rule as closely as Lunardi and other analysts who went through the fake process are claiming.
So best case scenario would be that Duke gets the 1 out West with either SD St. or BYU as their 2. But it will be difficult for Duke to get the 2 seed out West since BYU or SD St. would have preference so Duke might be better served falling to the top 3 and then going out West and going through BYU/SD St. and ND as opposed to seeing a team like Syracuse and Pitt/OSU.
Similarly, I just don't see how NC jumps from a #18 ranking as of 9 days ago, all the way to a #1 seed by this Sunday. Yes they've moved up, but I think the best they can HOPE for is a #2 seed, and a #3 seems the most likely (and a #4 is still possible with a poor ACCT outcome). There are just too many teams with fewer losses between them and a #1 seed.
In sum, Duke is probably a #2 (hopefully in the same region as BYU or another relatively weak #1 -- ND?), with a decent shot at a #1 if they win the ACCT. Only a ACCT "crash and burn" drops them to a #3 seed. NC is likely a #3 seed, but could move up to #2 with an ACCT win, and could fall to #4 (though unlikely, depending on other top-12 teams) with an early ACCT exit.
Unrelated, but if anyone is interested, USA-Today has a poll up for the best Duke player of all time. They'll be doing this for about 15 top teams in the comings days...
Caught a bit of Lunardi today and he has both BC and vt in the field. Not quite sure how he can include the (C)hokies, mostly based on them beating us, especially after they lost to C-L-E-M-S-O-pause, pause, pause-N and BC beat the "stuffing" outta them. At Cassell. On senior night. But, he does have a pretty good prognostication record.
I'm not terribly optimistic about being in the same bracket with BYU, because I'm convinced that BYU won't make it to the Elite 8, so Duke wouldn't have a chance to square off. There will be no easy road to the final four, regardless of match-up. I'd rather Duke be a #2 to a perceived world-beater like Ohio State or Pitt, and assume the "underdog" role in the bracket.
I do, however, want to see my two least favorite teams - UNC and Kansas in the same bracket: 1 - So Roy has to play his old team again and 2) so that at least one of them is guaranteed to not make the final four. Hate UNC and Kansas. C'mon committee, stick them togther.
B) Expanded field
C) I don't personally believe that both BC and Clemson can make the NCAAT. One of those teams is going to end up on Friday afternoon with a head-to-head loss to a direct bubble competitor...and the team that wins won't have added such a substantial W that they immediately erase themselves from bubble discussion.
If one of those two teams is more likely to be able to survive a Friday loss - it's BC. They're RPI and SOS are much stronger than Clemson's. They also have a Top 50 RPI win over Texas A&M (Clemson has zero Top 50 RPI Ws outside of ACC competition.)
VaTech cannot afford to lose on ACC Friday either, in my opinion. It's just that they're losing is not directly tied to a bubble competitor's winning.
It would sure help all of the ACC bubble teams for Colorado, Baylor, Michigan, Alabama/Georgia and Marquette to all tank in their respective tournaments. If even two of those teams soldify themselves with deep runs that makes the bubble all the less soft.
Likewise we need as few "bid thieves" as possible, starting with ODU taking out VCU tonight.
In Lunardi's just completed chat (this was my personal question, actually):
Q: If Duke and Notre Dame both win their respective tourneys (and beat the teams they're expected to play; i.e., no upsets in earlier rounds), who gets the last #1 seed?
A: I'd vote Notre Dame, Doug, just as I would have today. Deep down, though, I still think the Committee stays with Duke.
As for Duke, I think that we almost control our own destiny for a 1-seed. The caveat is that if ND wins the Big East against Pitt, and Duke wins the ACC against a bunch of underdogs (think last year), I could see ND passing us. Going through the Big East gives them a stronger schedule (at the top anyway, I don't think the committee cares too much whether you played team's 150 or 350, which is part of the reason overall SOS is similar for both). With more top end wins, I could see them ahead of us even with an extra loss.
I don't even know how it came up here that Duke could fall below a two. Lunadi's 3-seeds are currently Purdue, SDSU, Syracuse, and Florida. Given their resumes, I don't see how one of them could pass us. The only other way it could happen is if teams are switched to meet bracketing principles, but the normal protocol is to switch lower seeds to make that happen, not higher seeds.
Of course nobody would expect this new BYU team to make the E8 but the point is would you rather play the 3 seed or the 2 seed. If the bracket is Duke/BYU, they probably get the top 3 seed but I would much rather see Purdue or Florida than Texas or ND in the E8.
And I'm not saying Duke will fall to a 3, but that they might be better served falling to a 3. I think it is a distinct possibility if they lose Saturday or even Sunday and things work against/for them. If they lose to UNC, UNC would jump them. If ND beats a ranked team, they could jump them. If Purdue goes to the B10 final, they might jump Duke. If Texas goes to B12 final, they would probably jump Duke. And if SD St. or BYU wins their tourney, they would probably jump Duke. It is a lot of ifs but if Duke loses 3 games in the last 2 weeks and has no big wins while Texas, ND, and Purdue are beating ranked teams, they might get jumped. But if they are the top 3, then they probably go out West with ND and BYU/SD St. unless UNC snakes the last 1 and doesn't jump Pitt. But even if they are a weak 2, there is almost no way to go out West unless both SD St. and BYU both drop to a 3 seed which seems unlikely b/c apparently this year, the committee is putting the utmost importance on distance to the regional site.
Duke should get the last 1 if they win the ACCT but if not they will most likely get the 2 seed opposite OSU or Pitt. They would conceivably get an easier 3 seed but I would much rather see a 3 next to their name and ND in their bracket than a 2 and OSU/Pitt in their bracket.
Please, not in Charlotte with the Heels. Anything else is okay with me.
Just looked at Lunardi's brackets. He still has Duke as a #1 seed in the West in today's version. I'm just saying. UNC is a #2 in the Southwest.
Keep in mind that BYU has to be put in a Thursday-Saturday regional, either New Orleans or Anaheim. They also have to be put in a Thursday-Saturday pod (Denver, Tampa, Tucson, or Washington).