Kyle Singler's Challenge

[Kedsy]

Since when does being a fan equate to being logical? I get myself in trouble when I try to view things objectively around here, but here goes.

At what point in time can you say a player has regressed? If our season closes after just a few more games and Kyle's shooting woes continue, would it then be fair to say that aspect of his game had regressed?

You mentioned the basketball IQ comments and how they were unsupportable. Can we really support talking about basketball IQ one way or the other? It is something that is rather subjective and is definitely in the eye of the beholder. Personally I believe Kyle has a very high basketball IQ and I base that on the being at the right place at the right time plays he constantly makes, of course that is just my opinion. Do I question his shot selection? Yes, I have, but since he continues to take certain shots he obviously has the blessing of Coach K to do so, end of story.

You find fault with my analogy. Ok, you're right Mays was washed up at that point in time, but he was at the end of his career. Kyle is at the end of his college career. You say it's just a slump, but should his career end while mired in this slump and say an 0-10 effort in his final game, how do you expect he will be remembered my many fans?

Winning a championship is extremely hard to do. I can handle a loss, but I'd be much happier to see both Nolan and Kyle go out with guns blazing scoring say 30 a piece and losing 100-99, than either one having a terrible game. I realize a storybook ending isn't likely to happen, but at least I can hope. See you Friday.

You make many good points, and I agree with most of what you say here.

Regarding "basketball IQ," I have never liked that expression. But while it is surely subjective (as you say), whatever it is, Kyle has it. It bothers me that some posters are questioning that just because he's in a slump.

If Kyle's slump extends to the end of our season, can we say that aspect of his game has regressed? Hmm, I'm not sure. First off, I think there is a huge leap from saying one aspect has regressed to saying his entire game has regressed as several posters have intimated. They would have gotten a lot less argument from me if they'd spoken only about one aspect -- his shooting -- because he clearly hasn't shot well for the past month or so. But I don't know that shooting is something that regresses. Rather I look at shooting slumps as a temporary glitch in the shooter's mechanics or confidence. Everyone has such slumps, at least occasionally, and most good shooters snap out of them. To me, that phenomenon is not accurately encompassed by the word "regressed," although admittedly this could be semantics on my part.

Regarding your statement that I bolded above, I think you're probably right, but that's what bothers me most of all. And I believe that's what NSDukeFan was trying to say earlier before the Mays thing came up. I don't care if Kyle never hits another shot -- after everything he has done for Duke, a shooting slump for a month or even two should absolutely not tarnish how we fans remember him.

[MChambers]

Regarding your statement that I bolded above, I think you're probably right, but that's what bothers me most of all. And I believe that's what NSDukeFan was trying to say earlier before the Mays thing came up. I don't care if Kyle never hits another shot -- after everything he has done for Duke, a shooting slump for a month or even two should absolutely not tarnish how we fans remember him.

Agreed. I'll remember him as one of Duke's all time greats, a player who belongs on the list of top ten players under Coach K.

[wilko]

I thought Barnes played better D on Singler in the first matchup than the second. He had a few nice plays, including a block from behind.

Also, Kyle is running off a lot of screens to get open, which is a reflection of our PG situation. We do not have a true creator at point right now so we run more plays and half-court sets. I think Kyle would get easier looks if we ran more and with a true creator drawing more defensive attention.

Think about how Battier got jump shots when he played with Jason Williams - a lot of pick and pops or open looks as the trailer on the secondary break. We rarely ran half court plays for him to come off a screen. Williams was a creator and enabled all of that. Singler and Battier and very similar, but Nolan playing point is very different from Williams (or Irving) and our offense is less fluid and more set because of it. I think this hurts our frontcourt to some extent but is better for the two guys who can create their own shots, Nolan and Seth.

BINGO!

1st off - Blame the loss on me. Its been a couple of days so I can start to talk about it. I make it a point NEVER to go to CH and I had to go look at a car. I put my family needs for a 2nd car ahead of my "fandom'? eh, well you get the point, sorry.

To the post at hand, I was thinking along the same lines and have a couple of additional observations to add. (Apologies if this had been mentioned previously, I didn't feel like reading back thru the entire thread on a depressing loss...)

The key point about the difference in HB's D vs: Kyles D is whose behind them respectively. Kyles drives are predicated on spacing and angles, he isn't gonna blow-by most UNC defenders on sheer foot-speed alone, and if he DID... where's to go? into Henson or Zeller? That smells like trouble.

On the few early drives Kyle DID try, he had the ball successfully stripped from him. So I cant really fault him on that. For that drive to really work well Kelly needed to connect on a decent % of those 3's so someone is forced to step out and play him, moving some lumber out of the way to make it easier on Kyle (+ Nolan and Seth for that matter). Kelly going oh-fer on 5 or 6 shots (seemed like) from the corner was a BIG key to the game in my mind. It wasn't the ONLY thing that lost us the game, but it was still big.

I would have liked to have seen him step in a foot or 3 and try a closer shot, just find the range and sniff a rythym. Or just drive the lane and pretend hes a bowling ball and send the Defenders flying like pins... at least that would have negated transition O by UNC after a miss.

Nolan and Seth (and Dre and TT) needed to do a better job of stopping the ball and blocking KMs view of the court in transition. They ate us alive getting back on D after a miss. And its not that we were "slow" or not trying.. They were just that fast and good at it. Most teams couldn't do that to us as consistently as they did. If we need to foul to spot a fast-break so be it.

HB by comparison, IF he lost Singler (or his primary defender) his path to the basket was easier, as our help side guys aren't as good/intimidating as Henson and to a lesser extent Zeller (at least lately) on D.

Not a cheap shot at our Guys - that's just not who they are; or were in that game..

I saw the frustration on Miles and Masons faces during that game. I keep thinking they are due for an explosion of output. Miles had some very nice moments in the UNC game and Mason did some nice things VS: CU. Before each game I keep thinking today's the day the light goes on and "It" finally happens for them and they go off.

If our draw is WF in the 1st round I'd want to use an entire half to feed MM1, MM2 and RK in the paint. They have been making some strides and need confidence to call for the ball. Their teammates need to trust them when they call for it.

Anyways.. I could go on but this is long enuff and I have work to do..
Go Duke

[Kedsy]

at least that would have negated transition O by UNC after a miss.

I have said this several times already, but UNC only scored 4 fast break points. Our problem was not UNC's "transition O."

If our draw is WF in the 1st round I'd want to use an entire half to feed MM1, MM2 and RK in the paint.

I'm pretty sure our draw in the 1st round is either Maryland or NC State. We can't play Wake until the championship game, and that has approximately a zero percent chance of happening.

[pfrduke]

I have said this several times already, but UNC only scored 4 fast break points. Our problem was not UNC's "transition O."

I recognize that the box score lists only 4 fast break points, but I do feel like their transition offense was effective in the sense that we were often in situations where we weren't set on defense when the ball came up the court, and even if those were not fast break points per se, they were "transition" baskets made easier by them pushing the ball off a miss.

For example, I can think of at least 3 transition scores just off the top of my head - 1) after we cut the lead to 5 at the start of the second half, Barnes got a steal and layup; 2) after trying to make an inbounds steal, Mason got beat down the court by Zeller and Marshall found him in transition for an easy dunk; 3) Marshall's spin move around Seth came in open court play.

Only the first is listed as a fast break point in the box score (the other is a bucket by Leslie McDonald that I have no recollection of), but all three were transition opportunities where our inability to get set resulted in points for UNC. There are several spots in the box score where they had made shots coming less than 10 seconds after a defensive rebound - I would consider those to be transition points, even if they didn't come on a fast break.

[pfrduke]

There are several spots in the box score where they had made shots coming less than 10 seconds after a defensive rebound - I would consider those to be transition points, even if they didn't come on a fast break.

Specifically, there are 8 scores, for 15 total points (two were free throw opportunities, and they went 3-4) that Carolina had that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Interestingly enough, neither of the two fast break buckets are included in that list - McDonald's came off of a Duke make, and Barnes's came off of a steal.

[wilko]

I have said this several times already, but UNC only scored 4 fast break points. Our problem was not UNC's "transition O."

And I said, I didn't see the need to torture myself by re-reading the entire thread, so thanks for researching that item and cutting to the chase.

Really? Just 4? Huh, sure felt like more... I guess that backs up my statements that most teams couldn't do that to us.. Now I don't feel so bad on that one.

Maybe I was too generous in wrapping UNC's rebounding at our basket in with their transition O. Sure feels like a lot of that happened too, forgive my confusion.

This was a secondary comment to my "Make some shots so Kyle has better spacing" thought.

I'm pretty sure our draw in the 1st round is either Maryland or NC State. We can't play Wake until the championship game, and that has approximately a zero percent chance of happening.

Eh, semantics. Bigger picture. The key point I was trying to make is that we should feed the Post and look for offensive production in the paint. I wasn't really getting bogged down in who/when the opponent would be. Match-ups are obviously a consideration, but, I think the larger point stands. Feed the post.

FWIW - I haven't given a 2nd thought to ACC Tourney seeding since League expansion.
Much like "make some shots" above, the brackets come down to win your games. Do what you need to do to get better, win your game. Seeding wont alter that.

[Kedsy]

Specifically, there are 8 scores, for 15 total points (two were free throw opportunities, and they went 3-4) that Carolina had that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Interestingly enough, neither of the two fast break buckets are included in that list - McDonald's came off of a Duke make, and Barnes's came off of a steal.

Well, we can agree to disagree, but 10 seconds seems like an awfully long time to count as transition points. I understand your point that the defense may not be set in that time, although what really matters for that is how quickly they get the ball over half court rather than how quickly they score.

Moreover, assuming the big men know how to throw an outlet pass, I'm not sure a long rebound on a three-point miss gives them much more of an advantage than a good outlet after a two-point miss. Of the 8 scores, how many came after missed three-pointers?

Finally, I remember Marshall's spin move and my recollection (which admittedly could be faulty) is it felt like it came in the middle of a half-court set. If that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound then to me it reinforces my point that 10 seconds is a long time to be considered transition.

[Kedsy]

Specifically, there are 8 scores, for 15 total points (two were free throw opportunities, and they went 3-4) that Carolina had that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound. Interestingly enough, neither of the two fast break buckets are included in that list - McDonald's came off of a Duke make, and Barnes's came off of a steal.

I admit I'm not as good as you are at going through the play-by-play, but I just tried. First of all, there was one missed three, and defensive rebound (by Zeller) after which Mason fouled on the rebound, leading to two made free throws. I'm assuming these were not among the made free throws you mentioned, right?

Anyway, not counting that, I counted four UNC scores coming within 10 seconds after missed three-pointers, but two of the four came in the first minute or so, while UNC's walk-ons were playing, so I'm not sure how much information we can glean from those. Which means (assuming I counted properly) even using your definition of transition, UNC's regular lineup only scored twice in transition off of missed three-pointers.

UNC likes to push the ball. Based on the data, it doesn't seem like our missed threes aided them so much that we'd have to do something drastic to stop it from happening. In my opinion, of course.

[dukeimac]

Duke didn't lose this game because of what UNC did, they lost it because Duke couldn't hit an open three to save their lives.

Kyle 0-5
Ryan 0-6
Nolan 0-4

You live by the 3 you die by the 3.

Duke died by the 3. End of story.

[elvis14]

Duke didn't lose this game because of what UNC did, they lost it because Duke couldn't hit an open three to save their lives.

Kyle 0-5
Ryan 0-6
Nolan 0-4

You live by the 3 you die by the 3.

Duke died by the 3. End of story.

Let's not let this thread deteriorate into a discussion about one game, UNC@CH. It's a discussion about the state of Kyle's game. If you read earlier in the thread there is some very good discussion on both sides of several issues (and some somewhat off the wall comments about Kyle's BB IQ )

[ns7]

Duke didn't lose this game because of what UNC did, they lost it because Duke couldn't hit an open three to save their lives.

Kyle 0-5
Ryan 0-6
Nolan 0-4

You live by the 3 you die by the 3.

Duke died by the 3. End of story.

We gave up 51 points in the first half and 30+ in the last 10 minutes of the half. That sounds like what UNC did (or what our defense didn't do) to me.

[dukelifer]

I was thinking that at the end of his "senior" season, Jason "Jay" Williams also had some bad shooting stretches. Duke lost to Maryland- where Jason was 2-12 from 3 and also Virginia where he was 1-7. He did well against bad teams but struggled against better teams. Just an observation- but shows that senior slumps can happen to the best of them.

[elvis14]

I was thinking that at the end of his "senior" season, Jason "Jay" Williams also had some bad shooting stretches. Duke lost to Maryland- where Jason was 2-12 from 3 and also Virginia where he was 1-7. He did well against bad teams but struggled against better teams. Just an observation- but shows that senior slumps can happen to the best of them.

Take post #60 in this thread and replace "Jon" with "Jay"

[Billy Dat]

I'm watching the Wofford/Col.Charleston Southern Conf title game right now. They just showed a graphic of the current players in NCAA Div 1 with the most career points. Number 1 is Charleston's Andrew Goudelock. #4? Kyle Singler, right behind Jimmer and just ahead of LaceDarius Dunn. #2 is Hofstra's Charles Jenkins.

What's better than Championship week? I get a graphic showing me that Kyle has scored more points than all but 3 other college players and then immediately see Bobby Cremins laughing on the bench, despite being down 5 with 3 to play.

[Utley]

I was thinking that at the end of his "senior" season, Jason "Jay" Williams also had some bad shooting stretches. Duke lost to Maryland- where Jason was 2-12 from 3 and also Virginia where he was 1-7. He did well against bad teams but struggled against better teams. Just an observation- but shows that senior slumps can happen to the best of them.

I was just about to post the same sentiment. If memory serves, it largely continued into the tournament. Just like with Kyle, Jason was a warrior who provided countless wonderful wins and a national title, all of which easily swamp a slump at an unfortunate time. A little bit of uh-oh but a whole lot of oh yeah.

[CDu]

Finally, I remember Marshall's spin move and my recollection (which admittedly could be faulty) is it felt like it came in the middle of a half-court set. If that came within 10 seconds of a defensive rebound then to me it reinforces my point that 10 seconds is a long time to be considered transition.

I would say Marshall's spin move came in transition more than a half court set. Neither the offense nor defense had come set (which is what I would consider the beginning of the half-court set and end of transition).

But I think it's all a matter of interpretation of terminology. I see a distinction of three phases of offense: fast-break, transition, and half-court set. If you score before the offense and defense get set, it's a transition basket. It might or might not be a fast break basket, but it could be the fabled "secondary break" basket. In Saturday night's game, UNC didn't punish us with many fast break points, but they punished us with numerous transition (secondary break) points.

[FellowTraveler]

I’ve seen a lot of talk of Singler's decline in FT attempts this year and was curious about whether this could be attributed to an increased percentage of his shots coming from outside. As it turns out, the percentage of Kyle’s shots that have come from behind the three point line has been remarkably consistent for the past three seasons -- between 38 and 39 percent each season. As a freshman, 43 percent of Kyle’s shots came from behind the arc. This pattern surprised me.

I looked at Kyle’s FTA per 2pFGA, and the drop-off this year is striking. Here are his numbers, freshman year first: 0.535, 0.596, 0.617, 0.487. That’s a huge drop from last year to this year -- 21 percent.

Some of that may be attributable to Singler failing to get some foul calls he should get. I agree that it has at times been noticeable. But it doesn’t seem plausible that that would account for a 21 percent decrease in FT rate. Seems odd for a widely respected star senior to suddenly start getting screwed by refs. I suspect, instead, the drop is in large part a result of a change in Kyle’s style of play inside the arc (since we knew he isn't taking many more 3s.) FWIW, he’s actually making a higher percentage of his 2-point shots than last year. Four-year 2pFG%, starting Freshman year: 0.545, 0.476, 0.424, 0.476.

But back to refs and foul calls. Like a lot of Duke fans, I felt that during Redick’s senior year, he could have gotten a lot more calls than he did. So I took a look at his FTA per 2pFGA, Freshman year first: 0.902, 1.007, 1.072, 0.818. Like Kyle, that’s a steady increase each of the first three years, followed by a huge drop to a career low as a senior.

Weird.

[superdave]

I looked at Kyle’s FTA per 2pFGA, and the drop-off this year is striking. Here are his numbers, freshman year first: 0.535, 0.596, 0.617, 0.487. That’s a huge drop from last year to this year -- 21 percent.

But back to refs and foul calls. Like a lot of Duke fans, I felt that during Redick’s senior year, he could have gotten a lot more calls than he did. So I took a look at his FTA per 2pFGA, Freshman year first: 0.902, 1.007, 1.072, 0.818. Like Kyle, that’s a steady increase each of the first three years, followed by a huge drop to a career low as a senior.

Weird.

Thanks for the data.

Kyle is not finishing a lot of plays when he does get fouled - few old fashioned 3 point plays - as well. He seems less explosive and does not seem to hunt for contact in the lane as much. I do wonder if there was a sprained knee or ankle at some point this season. I dont have stats to back it up though...alas.

[basket1544]

Not sure what thread to add this to but I'm hoping that Kyle looks at what EJ has done in the last 2 games (followed a career high of 22 with another career high of 24) and says anything you can do, I can do better.