Similarities between last year and this year

[Lord Ash]

I am sure I am missing some, but it does seem to me that there are a number of similarities between last year and this...

*Three scorers.

*Winning preseason tourney.

*A loss at an ACC building against a team that just plays out of its gourd, while we look a bit lost.

*A tough loss in a big city on January 30th to a pretty good team with a lot of basketball history.

*A close first-game-vs-UNC win.

*A big who starts to develop a little bit of offense but is primarily a staunch rebounder.

*A loss at the end of the year at an ACC building where the crowd and opposing team just will themselves to a win.

*Undefeated (so far) at Cameron.




It is a bit crazy to see how similar the seasons have been. In fact, there has been only one major difference!

This year, add in "One of the 3 big scorers goes down with a massive injury."

I just hope they end the same!

[mkline09]

I am sure I am missing some, but it does seem to me that there are a number of similarities between last year and this...

*Three scorers.

*Winning preseason tourney.

*A loss at an ACC building against a team that just plays out of its gourd, while we look a bit lost.

*A tough loss in a big city on January 30th to a pretty good team with a lot of basketball history.

*A close first-game-vs-UNC win.

*A big who starts to develop a little bit of offense but is primarily a staunch rebounder.

*A loss at the end of the year at an ACC building where the crowd and opposing team just will themselves to a win.

*Undefeated (so far) at Cameron.




It is a bit crazy to see how similar the seasons have been. In fact, there has been only one major difference!

This year, add in "One of the 3 big scorers goes down with a massive injury."

I just hope they end the same!

I've noticed a lot of those similarites too. The only exception is the third scorer. Duke doesn't have a consistent third scorer. Had Kyrie not gotten hurt it would have been him. If he is able to come back it could be him.

I like you hope the results end up the same, but I wouldn't be shocked if this team ends up more like the 2006 team than the 2010 team.

[Lord Ash]

Yeah, see I put that there because we DO have three scorers; it is just that one has been injured all year!

Let's hope it ends the same...

* Crushing UNC.
* Winning ACC.
* Winning NCAA.

[Vincetaylor]

I would take Thomas and Zoubs in a heartbeat over this year's inside guys. In addition to the lack of a 3rd scorer, that is a big difference between this year and last year. Without Kyrie, this team doesn't stack up to last year's team at all.

[hq2]

Not sure about that. Granted, we miss Lance's defense; one of those things you don't notice till it's gone. But, we certainly don't miss his offense (very little). I'd say Kelly and Mason have about replaced Zoubs on the defensive end and rebounding area, and their offense is clearly better (when Kelly hits his shots). I'm not sure whether not having Jon is all that big a deal either; Seth + Dre + a little of Kelly outside about makes up for it. On the whole, I'd say we're about as good as we were last year, as our record shows. Our inside game is clearly better, our outside game about even overall, our D clearly not as good, so overall about even.

However, folks forget that the other #1s last year did us a big favor by doing the big chokola. If we have to play, say Ohio State or Kansas, in the finals, it might be a lot tougher.

[Kedsy]

I like you hope the results end up the same, but I wouldn't be shocked if this team ends up more like the 2006 team than the 2010 team.

It bothers me when people do this. First of all, the 2006 team had one of the most successful pre-NCAAT seasons in Duke history. If LSU doesn't win on a last second shot the game before they played Duke and Duke had made it to the Final Four, people would remember 2006 entirely differently.

Second, the supporting cast of the 2006 team was McBob, Dockery, Paulus, Lee Melchionni, and a banged up sophomore DeMarcus Nelson. This year's supporting rotation of Mason, Seth, Andre, Ryan, Miles, and Tyler is in my opinion significantly better than that group (which as I've already said had an incredibly successful season before laying an egg in their last game).

[Kedsy]

I would take Thomas and Zoubs in a heartbeat over this year's inside guys. In addition to the lack of a 3rd scorer, that is a big difference between this year and last year. Without Kyrie, this team doesn't stack up to last year's team at all.

That's what you say now. This is what you said on January 13, 2010:

I am now convinced that if this team wants to got to the elite 8 or farther, we will need to see more minutes out of the Plumlees and a lot less out of Thomas and Zoubek by the end of the season.

[Lord Ash]

I'm not sure whether not having Jon is all that big a deal either; Seth + Dre + a little of Kelly outside about makes up for it.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa.

Seth+Dre+a little Kelly does not BEGIN to make up for Jon.

Kyrie+Seth+Dre+Kelly MAYBE begins to make up for Jon. Maybe.

[Kedsy]

Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa.

Seth+Dre+a little Kelly does not BEGIN to make up for Jon.

Kyrie+Seth+Dre+Kelly MAYBE begins to make up for Jon. Maybe.

Personally I don't think you can play the addition/subtraction game and come to any reasonable conclusion. When you start trying to "replace" seniors on the current day roster, you are forgetting the fact that all the returning players are a year older and a year better. Every returning player on our team (including Kyle although his stats aren't better and including Andre even though he's been in a funk lately and including Miles even though his minutes are down) is worlds better than they were last year. Nolan, Ryan, and Mason are so much better it's like they're different players entirely.

Put another way, we don't have to "make up" for Jon. With Kyrie, this team was clearly better than last year's team (which does not mean the team would achieve more, just that it was better). Without Kyrie I think this year's model is a little better than last year's team. The two things last year's team had that this year's team doesn't were outstanding offensive rebounding and suffocating defense. The things this year's team has that last year's team didn't have are outstanding eFG% and superior backcourt depth and versatility (which allows us to show many different looks and adapt to varying opponent paces and styles).

With the possible exception of offensive rebounding (which was pretty much all Z), none of the differences are things you can highlight by saying player A is gone, player B is here. The team, as a whole, cannot be defined by the sum of the individuals who play on it.

[camion]

The main thing last year's team had over this year's team is that we started three seniors and two juniors. This year we are more talented, but younger.

[taiw93]

Another key similarity is the state of college basketball as a whole. Since Kyrie went down, the NCAA has lacked a clear #1 team, just as it did last year. In other words, this year's tournament will again be pretty wide open, and will come down to luck (with regards to seeding, upsets of other teams, etc), experience, toughness, and clutch play. So, like last year, it is anyone's tourney, folks.

[PADukeMom]

There are many similarites between the 2 seasons but they aren't exactly the same.
A loss in February doesn't mean as much as one would in March.

My bigs have got to start stepping up & play bigger.

[Vincetaylor]

That's what you say now. This is what you said on January 13, 2010:

Wow Kedsy. You must have a ton of time on your hands. Zoubs was stinking up the joint when I made that quote last year. He was able to turn it around and become a force inside. Are you honestly crazy enough to think K would take the Plumlees and Kelly over Lance and Zoubs(the way they were playing at this point last year)? Yes or no. I'm trying to test your basketball knowledge since we all know your ability to track down posters' old quotes is superb.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Future Similarities:

We are going to sweep the rest of our regular season games after a tough ACC Road loss against a quality opponent.

We are going to win the ACC Tournament.

We are going to get a number 1 seed that many are going to complain about.

We are going to avoid playing Kansas or Ohio State (or whoever this year's Kentucky is) in the Final Four, because of an upset.

We are going to win the National Championship (because we get all the calls and the easiest road to the Championship in the history of the tournament).

As one poster so put it, "I guess we will have to live with that"...

[Duke: A Dynasty]

I know we all got our own opinions but to me it is more like:

Kyrie more than makes up for Jon

Mason, Miles and Ryan are a better trio than Thomas and Zoubs as a duo

Nolan this year is better than Last

Singler about the same

Dre this year is better than last

and Seth is a very nice luxory we did not have


BUT WAIT!

I say that not to bash Jon, Lance or Zoubs (who are my fav 4 year guys since JJ and Sheldon). I just think if this team faced last years team this team would win 8 of 10. Would also like to add that Jon, Lance, and Zoubs were better fit for last years team where guys like Mason were better suited for this kinda play. So if I was using Jon as my pg then I would want Lance and Zoubs over Plums and Kelly but with KI at pg I much prefer Plums and Kelly (just a style of play preference).

[Duke: A Dynasty]

Future Similarities:

We are going to sweep the rest of our regular season games after a tough ACC Road loss against a quality opponent.

We are going to win the ACC Tournament.

We are going to get a number 1 seed that many are going to complain about.

We are going to avoid playing Kansas or Ohio State (or whoever this year's Kentucky is) in the Final Four, because of an upset.

We are going to win the National Championship (because we get all the calls and the easiest road to the Championship in the history of the tournament).

As one poster so put it, "I guess we will have to live with that"...

Lol this made me laugh really hard so thank you for that. O and I hope it comes out to be true as well.

[Chris Randolph]

Lets make this clear: With Kyrie, this year's team is better than the national championship team from a year ago. Without him, I don't think so

Jon Scheyer was an absolute stud last year. He MAXED out his potential and had a great year for us at point guard (a position he was not recruited to play I might add). His offense, defense, ball handling, intagibles and clutch shots have not been matched on a consistent basis by the combination of Dre/Seth/Tyler, not even close in my opinion (which is fine, going into the season those 3 players had a combined 1 year of ACC experience, as opposed to Jon's 3).

Say what you want about experience not being a major factor but the list of past national champions resembles teams with good to great experience

[Kedsy]

Wow Kedsy. You must have a ton of time on your hands. Zoubs was stinking up the joint when I made that quote last year. He was able to turn it around and become a force inside. Are you honestly crazy enough to think K would take the Plumlees and Kelly over Lance and Zoubs(the way they were playing at this point last year)? Yes or no. I'm trying to test your basketball knowledge since we all know your ability to track down posters' old quotes is superb.

Ah, you flatter me, but actually, the search function isn't all that difficult or time consuming to use.

The answer to your question is not a simple one. For starters, I didn't agree with you back then that Z was "stinking up the joint." I thought he played well all season last year but wasn't able to play starters minutes because of foul trouble, which was an issue he obviously learned how to handle. His per 40 minute stats were fairly consistent from the beginning of the season to the end, but a few games after your quote he started playing enough minutes for people to notice.

Having said that, and as I also said in an earlier post, I don't think comparing teams is as easy as comparing the individual players. K molded a strategy last year that fit his personnel, specifically, it fit Jon and Z. And they were better suited for that system than any of our current personnel. This year we are playing a different system. Indeed we have played two systems this year, one with Kyrie and one without. But for both of those systems I think Ryan and the Plumlees are better suited for it than Z would be. They all have more offensive skills than he or Lance had, for one thing. They're better shot blockers, and Mason is actually a better defensive rebounder, although not nearly as good an offensive rebounder. Lance and Z were better defenders, although to my eye all of our current bigs have improved their defense immensely over the course of the season.

So I can't answer yes or no to your question. I can say I think our current team (without Kyrie) is more talented than last year's team, and if somehow the two squads could square off for a ten game series that this year's team would win more than they would lose. That doesn't mean I think this year's team will win it all (although they could), because there's almost as much luck as skill in such an achievement. It does mean we have a shot, which is all we realistically can ask to hope for.

[Jderf]

Wow Kedsy. You must have a ton of time on your hands. Zoubs was stinking up the joint when I made that quote last year. He was able to turn it around and become a force inside. Are you honestly crazy enough to think K would take the Plumlees and Kelly over Lance and Zoubs(the way they were playing at this point last year)? Yes or no. I'm trying to test your basketball knowledge since we all know your ability to track down posters' old quotes is superb.

[Edit: I see Kedsy already took care of business... oh well.]

While I'm sure Kedsy can respond himself, I'd just like to point out that Zoubek would not be nearly as effective in our offense this year as he was last year. First off, we wouldn't need him as badly, since our eFG% is significantly better. Second, this year's team is pushing the ball up the court much faster than last year's; while Zoubs wasn't horrifically slow, he would have had a lot more trouble sprinting up and down the court.

Zoubek and Lance were perfect last year, but its important to also remember that they were perfect for last year. Just because they have been immortalized by the national championship does not mean they had zero flaws. I would argue that, with the current makeup of the team, the Plumlees and Ryan (with the added year) are a better fit for what we need.

As a sidenote, Zoubek was NOT "stinking up the joint" in January of last year. He was simply fouling too much to stay on the court for a significant portion of a game, and therefore could not stay in play long enough to put up numbers as he eventually would. Once he got the fouling under control, he "suddenly" "transformed" "overnight."

[Kedsy]

Wow Kedsy. You must have a ton of time on your hands. Zoubs was stinking up the joint when I made that quote last year. He was able to turn it around and become a force inside. Are you honestly crazy enough to think K would take the Plumlees and Kelly over Lance and Zoubs(the way they were playing at this point last year)? Yes or no. I'm trying to test your basketball knowledge since we all know your ability to track down posters' old quotes is superb.

I guess the other point I was trying to make by digging up your old quote is that our perceptions of past players and teams change as time moves on, and often they change based on how the team ultimately played in the post-season.

I'm not trying to single you out -- last year for most of the season, you were certainly not alone in your negative perception of Z and Lance. It seemed to me I spent most of my waking hours defending the two of them in DBR threads. Yet now many of their most vocal critics refer to them as near-deities, in essence because they helped lead Duke to a championship.

So if this year's team flames out in the Sweet 16, I expect a lot of criticism of our big men, but if we manage to make the Final Four or especially if we win another championship, I imagine people's perceptions of the Plumlees' and Ryan's shortcomings will change. Only time will tell if I'm right.