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Thread: Braves 2011

  1. #21
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post

    The best part of the .750 start is that it's all on the road.
    Especially since they've been winning on the road in cold weather and despite the odd scheduling today that required the team to make an early AM flight to Milwaukee for an afternoon start.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    ...then solid relief...
    Craig Kimbrell is a machine. Mark my words, he is going to be one of the top few relievers in baseball this season.

    So far this season, he has faced 6 batters. 5 of them went back to the dugout with a strikeout. The other one popped out.

    In his regular season career, Kimbrell has faced 23 total batters in the 8th or 9th inning of a game where one team leads by one or the game is tied. In those situations, he has given up 3 walks and zero hits. He has recorded 20 outs, 15 of them by strikeout.

    Think about that -- close and late, batters are 0-for-20 with 15 ks. That otherworldly.

    Want more? His career ERA is 0.40. Major league batters are hitting a robust .115 against him. Right-handers are especially impotent, batting .073 (3-for-41) with 25 Ks.

    Of course, those numbers are inflated by a couple tough outings when he first arrived in the bigs last summer. He got sent down to the minors for a bit before getting his permanent Majors callup in August. Since that callup he has thrown 18 innings of baseball and has 37 strikeouts, 2 per inning. Batters are hitting .083 against him in that time (5-for-60).

    I know he is a youngster and I know I am putting high expectations on him, but I am telling you, Kimbrell is going to be dominant this season and for a long, long time.

    --Jason "wish I could take credit for the above stats, but they come from this AJC blog post" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Well, after last night's loss, the Braves are now at .600 and out of the playoff picture, trailing both the Mutts and the Phils.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    When will the Braves score their next run? I've got a good feeling about Thursday.

  5. #25
    This business of Heyward hitting 6th is for the birds. That's way too low in the order to hit arguably the best hitter on the team, and having a guy who walks a ton hitting before the 7-8 hitters is silly.

    The only legitimate excuse I've seen for this is the notion that Uggla needs "protection". Ignoring the fact that Heyward has NO protection batting 6th, why not swap Uggla and McCann?

    Prado LF
    Heyward RF
    Chipper 3B
    Uggla 2B
    McCann C
    Gonzalez SS
    McLouth CF
    Freeman 1B

    Bottom line is *someone* has to hit in front of A-Gon. Heyward is losing an AB in many games because he's so low in the order.

  6. #26

    Braves order

    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    This business of Heyward hitting 6th is for the birds. That's way too low in the order to hit arguably the best hitter on the team, and having a guy who walks a ton hitting before the 7-8 hitters is silly.

    The only legitimate excuse I've seen for this is the notion that Uggla needs "protection". Ignoring the fact that Heyward has NO protection batting 6th, why not swap Uggla and McCann?

    Prado LF
    Heyward RF
    Chipper 3B
    Uggla 2B
    McCann C
    Gonzalez SS
    McLouth CF
    Freeman 1B

    Bottom line is *someone* has to hit in front of A-Gon. Heyward is losing an AB in many games because he's so low in the order.
    I totally agree with you about moving Heywood. He's to valuable to bat sixth. At the current stage in his career -- he has just moderate power but is an on-base machine -- he's the perfet guy to bat second.

    I don't like moving McCann down. He's perfect at No. 4. Uggla at No. 5 gives him protection ... and McCann is better than Uggla at the plate, so give him the protection.

    That leaves Uggla uncovered, but as you say, someone has to bat in front of A-Gon. My solution is to platoon the Number Six hitters -- bat Freeman sixth against righhanders and A-Gon sixth against lefties (I know that Freeman has had a lot of success against lefties early, but I think that's a small sample size ... I believe he'll finish with normal platoon splits).

    Definitely a discouraging stretch for the Braves. Are they repeating the pattern they had through most of last year where they actually play better on the road than at home?

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Definitely a discouraging stretch for the Braves. Are they repeating the pattern they had through most of last year where they actually play better on the road than at home?
    Not really. They just aren't hitting - the Braves have the lowest OBP in the league thus far.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    The SABR guys have proven that "protection" basically doesn't exist. All you're doing by batting a guy a slot lower is costing him a certain number of plate appearances a year. It's a multiple of 18, I forget whether it's 18 or 36, on average. I'd look this up, but I'm lazy.

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    ---Over the Rhine

  9. #29

    batting order

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    The SABR guys have proven that "protection" basically doesn't exist. All you're doing by batting a guy a slot lower is costing him a certain number of plate appearances a year. It's a multiple of 18, I forget whether it's 18 or 36, on average. I'd look this up, but I'm lazy.
    The Fox guys doing today's Braves-Mets game went into a big deal about the batting order debate and asserted (1) that batting order doesn't impact runs scored; (2) Gonzales bats Heyward 6th to give Uggla (batting 192) protection; (3) that if batting him higher in the order would give Heyward more at-bats, then why does St. Louis bat Pujols first to get him more at bats?

    Actually, there was a professor back in the 1960s -- the first sabremetician -- who calculated that players should bat in descending order of productivity for precisely that reason -- that batting order doesn't matter and that batting your best player early gives him more at bats over the long run.

    However, I'm pretty sure Bill James did some research on the subject and concluded that batting order DOES matter. I'll see if I can find his article ... I remember him talking about the way the Yankees messed up their batting order in the early 1960s and cost themselves a ton of runs. Everybody was hung up on the debate as to whether Mantle or Maris should bat 3rd/4th and ignored the fact that Richardson and Kubek -- two guys who rarely got on base -- shouldn't have been batting 1st and second.

    PS Just found this article that claims that batting orders DO matter, but it also concludes that traditional models (high on base guys, the best hitters 3-4-5) seem to be the most productive:
    http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/R...lineup_art.htm
    Last edited by Olympic Fan; 04-16-2011 at 06:14 PM.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Nothing like beating up on the Mets to get the team a bit of momentum. We finally score for Lowe plus Jurrjens comes back to torment the Mets yet again. Only bad news is that Heyward is still batting 6th. Oh well. Maybe Freeman's homer will start a hot streak for the rookie that basically forces Gonzales to drop McClouth in the order so that Heyward (or even Chipper, if we're getting really creative) moves up to the 2 spot leaving a lefty/righty platoon at 6/7 with Freeman and Gonzales (good call, Olympic Fan, as always!).

    Anyway, Bravos have a good chance at a sweep as the Mets are having to call up a rookie from Double A to fill in for their injury depleted roster. I'm hoping the bats warm up with the weather and Hanson adds to the momentum he gained during his last outing.

  11. #31
    Any day they Braves beat the Mets is a good day and it happened twice yesterday!!

    I tuned into the Fox broadcast a little late. Can somebody fill me in on why the Mets were so upset they had to play a double header Saturday and even went so far as to call the union to see if there were anyway it could be avoided. The announcers were saying something about a strain on the pitching staff and having to call guys up but why was it any more stressful on the NY staff then on Atlanta's? When did the Mets want to make up the game?

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by kmspeaks View Post
    Any day they Braves beat the Mets is a good day and it happened twice yesterday!!

    I tuned into the Fox broadcast a little late. Can somebody fill me in on why the Mets were so upset they had to play a double header Saturday and even went so far as to call the union to see if there were anyway it could be avoided. The announcers were saying something about a strain on the pitching staff and having to call guys up but why was it any more stressful on the NY staff then on Atlanta's? When did the Mets want to make up the game?
    The Mets played a doubleheader on Thursday, as well, if I'm not mistaken. To be honest, though, I'm not really sure what the big deal was considering Friday was effectively an off day. I would have been more understanding if Friday's game had started and both teams had to burn their starters for a few innings before the game was canceled.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St. Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    The Fox guys doing today's Braves-Mets game went into a big deal about the batting order debate and asserted (1) that batting order doesn't impact runs scored; (2) Gonzales bats Heyward 6th to give Uggla (batting 192) protection; (3) that if batting him higher in the order would give Heyward more at-bats, then why does St. Louis bat Pujols first to get him more at bats?

    Actually, there was a professor back in the 1960s -- the first sabremetician -- who calculated that players should bat in descending order of productivity for precisely that reason -- that batting order doesn't matter and that batting your best player early gives him more at bats over the long run.

    However, I'm pretty sure Bill James did some research on the subject and concluded that batting order DOES matter. I'll see if I can find his article ... I remember him talking about the way the Yankees messed up their batting order in the early 1960s and cost themselves a ton of runs. Everybody was hung up on the debate as to whether Mantle or Maris should bat 3rd/4th and ignored the fact that Richardson and Kubek -- two guys who rarely got on base -- shouldn't have been batting 1st and second.

    PS Just found this article that claims that batting orders DO matter, but it also concludes that traditional models (high on base guys, the best hitters 3-4-5) seem to be the most productive:
    http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/R...lineup_art.htm
    Of course, the Yankees in the early '60's didn't really have anybody who fits the classic leadoff hitter mold (high OBP, with some speed). Yes, Mantle had those attributes, but his tremendous power makes him a 3 or 4 man. Elston Howard had a few years with a high OBP (and others not so much), but he was molasses-in-January slow. And you can't lead off with Hector Lopez, or Clete Boyer, or Tom Tresh, or the Moose.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Braves losing late in Los Angeles, but at least Vin Scully is on the call so it isn't a total loss.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Sullivans Island, SC

    :(

    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Braves losing late in Los Angeles, but at least Vin Scully is on the call so it isn't a total loss.
    The Braves offensive struggles continue. Credit Lilly for 7+ scoreless with 6Ks, all the while barely cracking the mid 80s with his fastball.

    Ughh...so much for the excitement. Heyward batting 2nd, Chipper back in, and Hudson on the mound had the makings for a big win.

    No dice, I suppose.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Actually, there was a professor back in the 1960s -- the first sabremetician -- who calculated that players should bat in descending order of productivity for precisely that reason -- that batting order doesn't matter and that batting your best player early gives him more at bats over the long run.

    However, I'm pretty sure Bill James did some research on the subject and concluded that batting order DOES matter. I'll see if I can find his article ... I remember him talking about the way the Yankees messed up their batting order in the early 1960s and cost themselves a ton of runs. Everybody was hung up on the debate as to whether Mantle or Maris should bat 3rd/4th and ignored the fact that Richardson and Kubek -- two guys who rarely got on base -- shouldn't have been batting 1st and second.
    It makes sense to have the guys who get on base the most often hitting in front of the guys who are most adept at driving in runs. Heyward gets on base at a higher rate than most of the other Braves hitters, so ideally he's on base when Chipper, McCann and Uggla are hitting, since they're the guys most likely to be able to drive him in.

    Pujols is similar to Chipper in that he gets on base a ton AND is the best guy in the lineup to drive in runs. Usually guys like that end up in the middle of the order. You could make an argument for hitting them 1st but doing so ensures that about 1/4th of their HRs will be hit leading off games (and thus with no one on base).

    Protection is real - your 8th place hitter will get way fewer pitches to hit because the opposition knows the pitcher is next, for example. But you can't let protection dictate your whole lineup.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Braves back on track after a cathartic sweep in SanFran. Heyward has snapped out of his slump in a big way . . . and against a trifecta of serious pitching talent. His talent is so great that I think he's gonna get on a little hot streak here and look like an MVP caliber player for a few weeks (and hopefully the rest of the year). **knocks on wood to avoid jinx** Beachy has been great and is pitching like the best 5th starter in baseball right now as well. If April Uggla transforms into midseason Uggla in the coming days, the lineup will start scoring more runs and take some of the pressure off the pitchers.

    I'm a little concerned about the middle relief. Kimbrel and Venters are quite the combo at the back end, but we've had a few middle relief breakdowns. Plus, we've got a few Venters injury concerns, too. But he looked good during the Giants series so hopefully he's in the clear.

    Let's take care of business against the slumping Pads and then come back to ATL for a much needed homestand.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    I'm a little concerned about the middle relief. Kimbrel and Venters are quite the combo at the back end, but we've had a few middle relief breakdowns. Plus, we've got a few Venters injury concerns, too. But he looked good during the Giants series so hopefully he's in the clear.
    Venters is fine. I agree some of our current middle relievers are weak but if they don't perform as the season progresses, we've got options at AAA. Marek in particular is killing it down there and is ready for the bigs. Also that's a relatively easy need to address at the trade deadline.

    Very nice to see McOut get the game-winning hit yesterday (off Brian Wilson no less).

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Venters is fine. I agree some of our current middle relievers are weak but if they don't perform as the season progresses, we've got options at AAA. Marek in particular is killing it down there and is ready for the bigs. Also that's a relatively easy need to address at the trade deadline.

    Very nice to see McOut get the game-winning hit yesterday (off Brian Wilson no less).
    Yeah, McClouth has been a very solid 8-hole hitter. Also nice to see Ross hit with some serious power while giving McCann a day off. Still awaiting the Uggla show to arrive, but it's still April so we've probably got another four or five days .

    Big outing from Jurrjens last night, getting the complete game. Considering how many hits he gave up, getting through nine innings with only 2 runs on 114 pitches was quite an accomplishment and gave our bullpen some much needed rest. We've definitely got the pitching matchup edge today with Hanson on the mound. Here's hoping we can take back-to-back series and come back home ready to vault above .500.

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