ACC #1 seed

[gofurman]

"decent chance" ... about 5% chance using current kenpom numbers (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win) ... stranger things have happened ... glad the 95% probability is on our side ...

I don't see the 95% thing. Granted I am posting after VT but say KenPom says 70% now? I dont' know what it is now but I see it is 50/50 ... Assuming UNC beats Md - they are leading at halftm... FSU will be some tough but much easier wout Singleton.. Then its a one game deal at UNC.

[Reilly]

If UNC beats MD, and if UNC beats FSU, and if Duke beats Clemson, then it is 50/50 at that point (assuming you give UNC a 50% shot at beating Duke, and Duke a 50% shot at beating UNC).

The 5% number came from using kenpom's numbers, and, most importantly, *before* Duke lost to VT, and *before* assuming UNC would beat MD and @ FSU.

I used kenpom's numbers and assumed a win over Clemson and got the 95% (again, before VT, before it looks like UNC will beat MD -- those hadn't happened yet). Sagegrouse simply pegged every game at 50/50 and the math was still 84% Duke would garner at least a tie for the regular season title.

[Troublemaker]

Hmm, if UNC hangs on against MD here (and there is no chance that they blow this lead... nope, none whatsoever), then it appears there are no scenarios where the Duke/UNC game won't be for the #1 seed in the ACC tourney.

Because, no matter who finishes 3rd in the ACC (FSU or VT), UNC will win the tiebreaker against Duke since we are 0-1 against either 3rd place team.

And the Clemson game at Cameron doesn't even matter to the ACC standings (it matters to Duke for many OTHERS reasons, of course!) since a win at UNC would mean we sweep which would mean we win the tiebreaker regardless.

So, yeah. It's okay, though. I wasn't really planning on our boys losing in Chapel Hill anyway. It was going to be a must-win regardless.

Beat Clemson, beat UNC. That's the plan!