ACC #1 seed

[Reilly]

... Five favor Duke (62.5%), three Carolina. ... but I don't see how jiggering those odds in any reasonable way produces a 95% chance of a Duke #1 seed.

sagegrouse

Duke is 12-1.
UNC is 11-2.

I wasn't talking about getting the #1 seed; I was talking about winning the ACC regular season title. They are different things (see 2001, when Duke 'won' the regular season but was not the #1 seed; two or more (see 1995) teams can win the regular season title).

I believe someone was positing that the following could happen: Duke could lose to VT and UNC (making Duke 13-3), and UNC would win out (making UNC 14-2). In this situation, Duke would not win the regular season crown. That is bad. I like winning championships, even regular season ones. K brought the team into Cameron to show them all the teams that have won either the regular season or tourney crown (remember, you can tie for reg season).

Kenpom has us at 91% to beat Clemson. Singler and Smith are, I think, 64-2 in Cameron. Let's assume that we'll beat Clemson. On senior night. In a game the computer says we will win 91% of the time. By two guys who have lost twice in four years there, and not since their sophomore year.

So, what has to happen for Duke to *not* win the ACC regular season crown. Duke will be at least 13-3. Meaning Carolina has to be 14-2.

What has to happen:

Duke lose to VT (28% chance) X Duke lose to UNC (41% chance) X UNC beat Maryland (71% chance) X UNC beat FSU (58%) = 4.7% chance Duke does not win (or tie) the regular season.

95% chance we're hanging a banner. Not 95% chance we get ACC #1.