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Thread: ACC #1 seed

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    ... Five favor Duke (62.5%), three Carolina. .... but I don't see how jiggering those odds in any reasonable way produces a 95% chance of a Duke #1 seed.

    sagegrouse
    Duke is 12-1.
    UNC is 11-2.

    I wasn't talking about getting the #1 seed; I was talking about winning the ACC regular season title. They are different things (see 2001, when Duke 'won' the regular season but was not the #1 seed; two or more (see 1995) teams can win the regular season title).

    I believe someone was positing that the following could happen: Duke could lose to VT and UNC (making Duke 13-3), and UNC would win out (making UNC 14-2). In this situation, Duke would not win the regular season crown. That is bad. I like winning championships, even regular season ones. K brought the team into Cameron to show them all the teams that have won either the regular season or tourney crown (remember, you can tie for reg season).

    Kenpom has us at 91% to beat Clemson. Singler and Smith are, I think, 64-2 in Cameron. Let's assume that we'll beat Clemson. On senior night. In a game the computer says we will win 91% of the time. By two guys who have lost twice in four years there, and not since their sophomore year.

    So, what has to happen for Duke to *not* win the ACC regular season crown. Duke will be at least 13-3. Meaning Carolina has to be 14-2.

    What has to happen:

    Duke lose to VT (28% chance) X Duke lose to UNC (41% chance) X UNC beat Maryland (71% chance) X UNC beat FSU (58%) = 4.7% chance Duke does not win (or tie) the regular season.

    95% chance we're hanging a banner. Not 95% chance we get ACC #1.
    Last edited by pfrduke; 02-25-2011 at 10:43 AM. Reason: fix quote tag

  2. #22
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    Talking Regular Season Co-Champion vs. #1 Seed

    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Duke is 12-1.
    UNC is 11-2.

    I wasn't talking about getting the #1 seed; I was talking about winning the ACC regular season title. They are different things (see 2001, when Duke 'won' the regular season but was not the #1 seed; two or more (see 1995) teams can win the regular season title).

    I believe someone was positing that the following could happen: Duke could lose to VT and UNC (making Duke 13-3), and UNC would win out (making UNC 14-2). In this situation, Duke would not win the regular season crown. That is bad. I like winning championships, even regular season ones. K brought the team into Cameron to show them all the teams that have won either the regular season or tourney crown (remember, you can tie for reg season).

    Kenpom has us at 91% to beat Clemson. Singler and Smith are, I think, 64-2 in Cameron. Let's assume that we'll beat Clemson. On senior night. In a game the computer says we will win 91% of the time. By two guys who have lost twice in four years there, and not since their sophomore year.

    So, what has to happen for Duke to *not* win the ACC regular season crown. Duke will be at least 13-3. Meaning Carolina has to be 14-2.

    What has to happen:

    Duke lose to VT (28% chance) X Duke lose to UNC (41% chance) X UNC beat Maryland (71% chance) X UNC beat FSU (58%) = 4.7% chance Duke does not win (or tie) the regular season.

    95% chance we're hanging a banner. Not 95% chance we get ACC #1.
    You are correct. I was beguiled by the thread title, "ACC #1 Seed," and failed to divine your meaning about the probability of being regular season co-champions. My fault.

    Modifying my previous calculations, 27 of 32 cases would make Duke at least regular season co-champion, or 84%. And a much higher percentage if you assumed a Duke win over Clemson -- but I ain't going there.

    sagegrouse

  3. #23
    Easy to see how the thread title would confuse. I was simply replying to the assertion in post #7 about garnering at least a tie for the regular season title and the "decent chance" that would not happen. The 84% number you give is if every game is 50/50, right?

  4. #24
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    Yep

    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Easy to see how the thread title would confuse. I was simply replying to the assertion in post #7 about garnering at least a tie for the regular season title and the "decent chance" that would not happen. The 84% number you give is if every game is 50/50, right?
    Yep. It's just a count of all possible outcomes. - sagegrouse

  5. #25

    regular season champion

    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Cameron,

    I used to be totally onboard the "ACC Champion = tournament winner; don't talk to me about regular season" express, but I've softened my position. Things like finishing first in conference regular season play, or achieving a #1 AP ranking at the end of the year are still pretty big deals - as fun and exciting as one-and-done tournaments may be. I know we like to brag how we have dominated the ACC Championship recently, but I can't fault teams who want to honor their sustained excellence over an entire season.
    Don't get me wrong ... winning the ACC "regular season" championship is an achievement, but getting excited about it is about like Tampa Bay claiming to be the best in the AL or the "chmpion" of the AL last season because they had the most regular season wins.

    The tournament winner is the ACC champion -- THE Champion. Period. Whether it is fair or not, that's the way the conference figures it.

    I posted in another thread that the ACC regular season championship is the equivilent to the No. 1 ranking in the final AP Poll, while the ACC Tournament title is the equivilent to the NCAA Tournament title (then national awards are more significant than the conference ones, but in the sense the two regular season awards carry far less weight that the tournament titles).

    I want to win the regular season title. I want to win it outright. But I don't think either of those desires is nearly as important as how much I want to beat UNC in Chapel Hill. Win that and the other stuff follows.

    As for the No. 1 ACC Tourney seed ... that's not a big deal at all.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    ... I want to win the regular season title. I want to win it outright. But I don't think either of those desires is nearly as important as how much I want to beat UNC in Chapel Hill. ....
    As you note, if we beat UNC, we garner a tie with UNC at worst for the regular season crown. We'd be 13-3 at worst and they'd also have 3 losses.

    The interesting question for me is this:

    What do you choose in a season:

    (A) Duke wins regular season title at 14-2, but two losses are to UNC; or
    (B) Duke beats UNC twice, finishes 13-3, and UNC wins the title at 14-2.

    I hate Carolina as much as anyone. But I have to take "A". We're about winning championships. I think K would take "A" over "B" as well.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    As you note, if we beat UNC, we garner a tie with UNC at worst for the regular season crown. We'd be 13-3 at worst and they'd also have 3 losses.

    The interesting question for me is this:

    What do you choose in a season:

    (A) Duke wins regular season title at 14-2, but two losses are to UNC; or
    (B) Duke beats UNC twice, finishes 13-3, and UNC wins the title at 14-2.

    I hate Carolina as much as anyone. But I have to take "A". We're about winning championships. I think K would take "A" over "B" as well.
    I would most certainly take option B. We can still win the ACC tourney to make up for a 2nd place reg season finish. The tourney carries more weight than the regular season anyway, especially with the unbalanced scheduling. But even if we didn't win the ACC tourney I would be more happy with option B because we still put ourselves in good position to win the ACC tourney and got a decent seed for the NCAA. Those are the Championships most of us are about.

  8. #28
    ... or to make a more difficult choice:

    (A) Duke 0-2 against UNC and Duke wins regular season title.

    OR

    (B) Duke 2-0 against UNC and neither Duke nor UNC wins reg season title.

    I still choose "A". Every time.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Regarding MD@UNC - a good buddy of mine is a big-time Maryland fan and his take is that Stoglin has emerged as their go-to guy over Cliff Tucker. Now that they've solidified their lineup, everyone knows their roles and they're playing much better than they were earlier in the year. I give them a real shot at beating UNC. It's a road game, but according to Scott Van Pelt that doesn't make much difference since the crowd at Comcast is nonexistent 8-)

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    My view on any year Carolina wins the regular-season: Congratulations, Cliff Ellis is applauding; you have won a piece of cloth that says "winner." As we all know, however, that piece of cloth means about as much as a participant ribbon at the local Pinewood Derby.

    That obviously means I still want to beat the hell out of them and win the the regular season for seeding purposes to the real show, the ACC men's basketball tournament. And, also as we all know, Duke has won the real ACC championship nine of the past 12 years. Carolina? Well, just two. But they do during that time span have a tomb full of participant ribbons. Oh wait, the same number of ACC #1 seeds as Duke. Five.

    Upon closer look. Since 1991 (last 20 years)

    ACC #1 Seeds

    Duke 11, North Carolina 7

    ACC Championships

    Duke 10, North Carolina 6

    National Championships (for good measure)

    Duke 4, North Carolina 3

    Head-to-Head (humiliation)

    Duke 27, North Carolina 21

    Pretty telling numbers, I think. Glad I decided to examine it all. Definitely makes me feel better about myself.
    You left out second-place NIT finishes.

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  11. #31
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    Lunardi's latest bracketology has Duke as the #1 in the Southwest region with Kansas as the #2. He also has UNC as a #4 in the Southeast bracket playing opening round games in Charlotte while Georgetown, a #3 seed in the West bracket, plays in Tampa. Wouldn't UNC and GU be swapped if their seedings remain?

    *Oops, wrong thread. Can the mods move this to the 'chase for #1 seed' thread? Thanks.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by nocilla View Post
    Lunardi's latest bracketology has Duke as the #1 in the Southwest region with Kansas as the #2. He also has UNC as a #4 in the Southeast bracket playing opening round games in Charlotte while Georgetown, a #3 seed in the West bracket, plays in Tampa. Wouldn't UNC and GU be swapped if their seedings remain?

    *Oops, wrong thread. Can the mods move this to the 'chase for #1 seed' thread? Thanks.
    Not to worry too much about this in February, but how could Duke and Kansas, two of the top three teams, end up in the same bracket?

  13. #33
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    Mar 2007
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    Toledo
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard
    You left out second-place NIT finishes.
    That really disappoints me, actually. That would have been a much more fitting statistic under "humiliation." There are a few more areas that would compliment a 20-year comparison between Duke and Carolina as well.

    Upon closer look. Since 1991 (last 20 years):

    Invitations to the "National Tournament"

    North Carolina 2, Duke 0

    NIT Final Fours

    North Carolina 1, Duke 0

    NIT Second-Places

    North Carolina 1, Duke 0

    NIT Second-Places via Losses to Dayton

    North Carolina 1, Duke 0

    NIT Quarter-Finalists

    North Carolina 1, Duke 0

    Players who have Participated in the NIT

    North Carolina 27, Duke 0

    Players who Played Basketball Like a Chair*

    North Carolina 1, Duke 0

    Pretty telling numbers, I think. We have some work to do if we are going to catch Roy and his boys in these "championship" areas. As it stands currently, we are getting pummeled.

    *This, of course, is in reference to William Graves, whose chair, it is safe to say, is no longer strong.
    "Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Cameron,

    I used to be totally onboard the "ACC Champion = tournament winner; don't talk to me about regular season" express, but I've softened my position. Things like finishing first in conference regular season play, or achieving a #1 AP ranking at the end of the year are still pretty big deals - as fun and exciting as one-and-done tournaments may be. I know we like to brag how we have dominated the ACC Championship recently, but I can't fault teams who want to honor their sustained excellence over an entire season.
    I used to feel they were almost equal. A season of excellence and a weekend of excitement. But that was before with the home and away schedules that resulted in equal and fair schedules for each team. With the new 12 team ACC and the unbalanced scheduling the regular season title has lost some of it's luster.

  15. #35

    NIT?

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    You left out second-place NIT finishes.
    Actually, the stat should be:

    Missed the NCAA Tournament: UNC 3, Duke 1

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    I used to feel they were almost equal. A season of excellence and a weekend of excitement. But that was before with the home and away schedules that resulted in equal and fair schedules for each team. With the new 12 team ACC and the unbalanced scheduling the regular season title has lost some of it's luster.
    I can't argue with that.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.
    5%? Really? Like I said, that's absurd.

  18. #38
    Vince, do you understand compound probabilities? Read the posts above, esp. the one from sage .... even *not* including Clemson as a sure win, and *even* counting every game as a 50/50 proposition (which it is not, given Duke's strength), the odds we would at least tie for the ACC regular season title was 84%. That's pure math. It's not my or your analysis of b'ball. It is just saying every game is coin flip, we still had an 84% chance going into tonight. That meant there was a 16% chance we would not ... or a 5% (slightly more, actually, given Clemson was 91% not 100%) using kenpom's numbers.

  19. #39
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    Northern VA

    Go Terps!! Go 'noles!!

    I will certainly be among the biggest of the Terp and 'noles fans this week.

    But it sure feels like it may come down to that last game.... Hmm.
    That's be ok by me -- bring em on!



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    Go Terps!! Go 'noles!!
    -BDBD

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Vince, do you understand compound probabilities? Read the posts above, esp. the one from sage .... even *not* including Clemson as a sure win, and *even* counting every game as a 50/50 proposition (which it is not, given Duke's strength), the odds we would at least tie for the ACC regular season title was 84%. That's pure math. It's not my or your analysis of b'ball. It is just saying every game is coin flip, we still had an 84% chance going into tonight. That meant there was a 16% chance we would not ... or a 5% (slightly more, actually, given Clemson was 91% not 100%) using kenpom's numbers.
    Uhhh. I have an MBA. Stats are basic stuff. There is a lot more to predicting outcomes in ACC basketball than stats. I trust my 30+ years of watching ACC basketball over some statisticians any day of the week. Everybody would be rich if you could always count on the probability.

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