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Thread: ACC #1 seed

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
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    Arlington, VA

    ACC #1 seed

    With three games left in the regular season, we're looking like a virtual look for a share of the ACC regular season championship. We need either two wins or a win and a UNC loss. However, UNC can also win a share of the regular season title and get the top seed in the ACCs by winning out. Ultimately, being a 1 or 2 seed in the ACCs won't matter for either team, but if we get the 1 seed, it would be the first time we've won the ACC outright since the 05-06 season and bring Coach K one game closer to catching the General in all time wins. Oh yeah, it would also mean we beat UNC, which is probably the most important thing outside of the Final Four.

    Mods, I forgot to take out the NCAAT part from the title of the thread. Please change it if necessary or move my post to another thread if it's in the wrong place.
    Last edited by dcdevil2009; 02-24-2011 at 01:08 PM. Reason: messed up thread title

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcdevil2009 View Post
    Oh yeah, it would also mean we beat UNC, which is probably the most important thing outside of the Final Four.
    This is not necessarily true, unless UNC wins its next two games. They have Maryland and @Florida State, so them coming out of that with two wins is by no means a lock. As you point out, if they lose one of those games and we beat VaTech and Clemson, then ACC seeding will not be affected by our game in Chapel Hill.

  3. #3
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    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    This is not necessarily true, unless UNC wins its next two games. They have Maryland and @Florida State, so them coming out of that with two wins is by no means a lock. As you point out, if they lose one of those games and we beat VaTech and Clemson, then ACC seeding will not be affected by our game in Chapel Hill.
    FSU has it tough without Chris Singleton. Gary Williams comes out swinging with his back against the wall, so I'd bet that's Unc's tougher matchup. It will be a big relief to get VPI behind us.

    I'm surprised after the GT loss that Unc has not dropped another stinkbomb or two. BC should have been one last weekend, but that 3 rimmed out. They actually remind me of a few Duke teams in recent years - over-achieving in the ACC to some extent.

  4. #4
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    Feb 2007
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    St. Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    FSU has it tough without Chris Singleton. Gary Williams comes out swinging with his back against the wall, so I'd bet that's Unc's tougher matchup. It will be a big relief to get VPI behind us.

    I'm surprised after the GT loss that Unc has not dropped another stinkbomb or two. BC should have been one last weekend, but that 3 rimmed out. They actually remind me of a few Duke teams in recent years - over-achieving in the ACC to some extent.
    Maryland looked very good against FSU. Sweaty must have been wondering where that's been.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Northern VA

    Unhappy

    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    FSU has it tough without Chris Singleton. Gary Williams comes out swinging with his back against the wall, so I'd bet that's Unc's tougher matchup. It will be a big relief to get VPI behind us.

    I'm surprised after the GT loss that Unc has not dropped another stinkbomb or two. BC should have been one last weekend, but that 3 rimmed out. They actually remind me of a few Duke teams in recent years - over-achieving in the ACC to some extent.
    Nah, Duke isn't that incredibly lucky. NC has won an awful lot of last-minute nail-biters -- an incredible number actually. Think of one bucket/last second wins vs Clemson, Mia, VPI and BC just for starters. Even the NCSU game in Raleigh last night was tied with about 8 minutes to go. Geez, these cats have used up just about all nine of their lives!!

    Both MD and FSU believe that they are on the bubble, and so will be motivated. If FSU didn't have the injury issued I think they be actually favored in Tal.

    Sure would be nice to have this all sewn up before heading over to the Dump.
    -BDBD

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
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    brooklyn
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Sure would be nice to have this all sewn up before heading over to the Dump.
    i see what you're saying, but i would argue going into the dean dome and taking unc's glimmer of hope at an acc regular season championship away would be pretty sweet too. but, to each his own, i guess.
    Excelsior!

  7. #7
    We are by no means a lock to at least claim a share of the regular season title. We could easily lose to Tech and UNC and UNC could win out. There is a decent chance this could happen.

  8. #8
    "decent chance" ... about 5% chance using current kenpom numbers (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win) .... stranger things have happened ... glad the 95% probability is on our side ....

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win)
    Wish I could do that, but can't. All three games are real challenges. I would not be surprised to drop one of the three, and all three opponents are capable of "being the one" that does it.
    "What, me worry?" -- Roy Williams

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    "decent chance" ... about 5% chance using current kenpom numbers (and counting Clemson as a sure Duke win) .... stranger things have happened ... glad the 95% probability is on our side ....
    5% is ridiculous. I wish we were that good and UNC was that bad.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Toledo

    I might be in the minority here.

    My view on any year Carolina wins the regular-season: Congratulations, Cliff Ellis is applauding; you have won a piece of cloth that says "winner." As we all know, however, that piece of cloth means about as much as a participant ribbon at the local Pinewood Derby.

    That obviously means I still want to beat the hell out of them and win the the regular season for seeding purposes to the real show, the ACC men's basketball tournament. And, also as we all know, Duke has won the real ACC championship nine of the past 12 years. Carolina? Well, just two. But they do during that time span have a tomb full of participant ribbons. Oh wait, the same number of ACC #1 seeds as Duke. Five.

    Upon closer look. Since 1991 (last 20 years)

    ACC #1 Seeds

    Duke 11, North Carolina 7

    ACC Championships

    Duke 10, North Carolina 6

    National Championships (for good measure)

    Duke 4, North Carolina 3

    Head-to-Head (humiliation)

    Duke 27, North Carolina 21

    Pretty telling numbers, I think. Glad I decided to examine it all. Definitely makes me feel better about myself.
    "Duke is a once in a lifetime opportunity and something you don't pass up on." -Amile Jefferson

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Sterling, VA
    Cameron,

    I used to be totally onboard the "ACC Champion = tournament winner; don't talk to me about regular season" express, but I've softened my position. Things like finishing first in conference regular season play, or achieving a #1 AP ranking at the end of the year are still pretty big deals - as fun and exciting as one-and-done tournaments may be. I know we like to brag how we have dominated the ACC Championship recently, but I can't fault teams who want to honor their sustained excellence over an entire season.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Vincetaylor View Post
    5% is ridiculous. I wish we were that good and UNC was that bad.
    I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Wish I could do that, but can't. All three games are real challenges. I would not be surprised to drop one of the three, and all three opponents are capable of "being the one" that does it.
    I agree with you. I was counting Clemson as a win (I think kenpom says its 91% ... I bumped it to 100%) simply for the purposes of calculating the "what are the odds that Duke loses to VT and UNC and UNC wins out" scenario.

  15. #15
    Is this correct?

    If UNC wins out, and we only lose in Chapel Hill, unc will get the #1 seed in the acc tourney as they will have beaten florida state and we will have lost to florida state and the record against the next best opponent is the tie breaker?

    -Skitz

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
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    Roxboro, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    Is this correct?

    If UNC wins out, and we only lose in Chapel Hill, unc will get the #1 seed in the acc tourney as they will have beaten florida state and we will have lost to florida state and the record against the next best opponent is the tie breaker?

    -Skitz
    Correct.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    Is this correct?

    If UNC wins out, and we only lose in Chapel Hill, unc will get the #1 seed in the acc tourney as they will have beaten florida state and we will have lost to florida state and the record against the next best opponent is the tie breaker?

    -Skitz
    Correct. And that is going to hold true pretty much regardless if UNC wins out because their only loss is to bottom-feeder Georgia Tech. So no matter where FSU ends up, it'd be above Ga Tech.

    The hope is to beat UNC at UNC or for them to lose to either Maryland at home or FSU (without Singleton) in Tallahassee. If we beat UNC, we'd have to lose to both Clemson and Va Tech to fall into a tie with UNC (which would again give them the #1 seed).

    I'd say the odds are in our favor. I'm not sure I'd call it a virtual lock, but it's a strong probability.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Denver
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    If we beat UNC, we'd have to lose to both Clemson and Va Tech to fall into a tie with UNC (which would again give them the #1 seed).
    I believe this is incorrect, as the first tiebreaker for seeding is head-to-head tally, which in that scenario we would be winning 2-0. If head-to-head is tied, then you start moving down the ranks of the ACC looking for the first loss.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.
    If you were a betting man, would you honestly take the Duke side of that bet? Personally, I would give UNC more like a 30% of beating us outright. I'm pretty sure Vegas would be around 4:1 or 5:1, certainly not 20:1.
    Last edited by pfrduke; 02-25-2011 at 10:42 AM. Reason: fix quote tag

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking Warning: Dorky Discussion of #1 Seed

    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    I'm not sure I understand your post. The odds of everything happening (Duke lose to VT, Duke lose to UNC, UNC win both of its other games) is 5%. That's not ridiculous; just compound probability. Just one of the things *not* happening (we win at VT, we win against UNC, UNC lose one of its other games) throws us into the 95% camp.
    Quote Originally Posted by Vincetaylor View Post
    If you were a betting man, would you honestly take the Duke side of that bet? Personally, I would give UNC more like a 30% of beating us outright. I'm pretty sure Vegas would be around 4:1 or 5:1, certainly not 20:1.
    So, getting a bit confused by the discussion, I modeled all the possible outcomes of Duke and Carolina wins and losses over the final three conference games. There are 32 such combinations (dorky explanation: there are eight possible combinations of wins and losses over three games: w-w-w, w-w-l, etc. But Carolina and Duke play each other so, there are 32, not 64 total possible outcomes). Of the 32 combinations, 21 (66%) favor Duke and 11 (34%) favor Carolina. That implicitly assumes each game is a 50-50 proposition.

    If one assumes (I never assume anything, so it must be someone else) that Duke (v. Clemson) and UNC (v. Maryland) hold serve at home, there are only eight (8) possible outcomes of the remaining games. Five favor Duke (62.5%), three Carolina. The only case in which the Duke-UNC winner is not the #1 seed is if Duke wins against VT and UNC loses at FSU.

    So, it may be that Duke has a better chance of winning over VT, Clemson and UNC than UNC has of winning against Maryland, FSU, and Duke, but I don't see how jiggering those odds in any reasonable way produces a 95% chance of a Duke #1 seed.

    sagegrouse
    Last edited by pfrduke; 02-25-2011 at 10:42 AM. Reason: fix quote tag

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