This Week in the ACC: 2/21-2/27

[Olympic Fan]

Agree, BC shot itself in the foot ... Miami at home was one they almost had to win.

Saturday is make or break time for Maryland and Virginia Tech. I think the Hokies still have an outside shot if they lose to Duke ... and I don't think the Terps are in even if they beat UNC, but I do think the Hokies are in if they beat Duke and Maryland is out if they lose to UNC.

Notice that after tonight's action, Lunardi had both Clemson and BC in his first four teams out. Really, the bubble is so soft that it's hard to knock out anybody. Everybody else vying for a bid is stumbling too.

PS Not saying they are in trouble, but I'm starting to wonder how the committee is going to view FSU. They just don't look very good without Singleton. I know they are just 1-1 since he got hurt (although the one win was at woeful Wake Forest), but I'm sure the committee will be watching closely as they finish with Miami and UNC at home, plus NC State on the road. If they stumble too badly, it could negate their solid pre-Singleton-injury resume.

[gw67]

Posters whom I respect are crossing their fingers that Maryland can play a good game against UNC and they conclude that the Terps have a chance if they can only score 70 points because they are offensively challenged. I expect that Maryland will give the Heels a good game and that they have a good chance to score at least 70 points (they average 78 ppg for the season and a little less in ACC games). Maryland is somewhat like the player who is a “scorer” not a “shooter”. They get their points inside and off turnovers but do not have players who are good jump shooters (at least not until recent games). Their principal problem all year has been finishing off games where they had a lead throughout the game (Pitt, Illinois, Nova, BC, and Temple). They relied on their upperclassmen at the end of these games and they were unable to hold the leads (“warning track power” – an apt description by Dan Bonner). The result is a team that is NIT bound but has played better basketball than many teams who will likely make the NCAAT (see Pomeroy).

Although it is too late to make a difference, a couple of things have happened recently that have made the Terps a better offensive team. First, Stoglin is playing more minutes and he and the other freshmen point guard, Howard, have finally begun to fit in after 20+ games. Stoglin, in fact is playing like a 1st team All ACC player the last four ACC games (I know, you think I’m crazy but see his stats below.) The other difference is the emergence of Dino Gregory as a reliable player late in his career. The Maryland internet fans have bashed this youngster for 3-1/2 years but he has developed a nice 15-18 foot jump shot and gives a good effort defensively and on the boards for an undersized forward. These two players are the complementary scorers to Williams that the Terps have needed all year. Now the pressure is off Mosley, Bowie and Tucker and they can play defense and contribute in other ways and not be counted on for scoring.

Stoglin (last 4 ACC games) 20.3 ppg 6.5 apg 2.5 tpg 60% from field, 63% from 3-point and 90% from foul line

Gregory (last 4 ACC games) 14.8 ppg 7 rpg 55% from field, 80% from foul line

I like the Terps chances at UNC better than their chances at Miami. I may be wrong but I believe that they have never won in Miami.

gw67

[Slackerb]

Amazing how horrible the officiating in the UNC/State game was...

Smith was getting double-fouled on some plays and no call. Leslie would foul on the other end over the back with no call.

And that intentional foul...Lorenzo Brown I believe it was, had his hand on the Barnes and the other on the ball...and they called an intentional...

Was pretty wild.

[Bob Green]

Florida State picked up their 10th conference win by beating Miami 65-59. The Seminoles should make the tournament but a victory over UNC on March 2 would be a nice addition to their resume.

[Indoor66]

Florida State picked up their 10th conference win by beating Miami 65-59. The Seminoles should make the tournament but a victory over UNC on March 2 would be a nice addition to their resume.

And ours...

[jv001]

Posters whom I respect are crossing their fingers that Maryland can play a good game against UNC and they conclude that the Terps have a chance if they can only score 70 points because they are offensively challenged. I expect that Maryland will give the Heels a good game and that they have a good chance to score at least 70 points (they average 78 ppg for the season and a little less in ACC games). Maryland is somewhat like the player who is a “scorer” not a “shooter”. They get their points inside and off turnovers but do not have players who are good jump shooters (at least not until recent games). Their principal problem all year has been finishing off games where they had a lead throughout the game (Pitt, Illinois, Nova, BC, and Temple). They relied on their upperclassmen at the end of these games and they were unable to hold the leads (“warning track power” – an apt description by Dan Bonner). The result is a team that is NIT bound but has played better basketball than many teams who will likely make the NCAAT (see Pomeroy).

Although it is too late to make a difference, a couple of things have happened recently that have made the Terps a better offensive team. First, Stoglin is playing more minutes and he and the other freshmen point guard, Howard, have finally begun to fit in after 20+ games. Stoglin, in fact is playing like a 1st team All ACC player the last four ACC games (I know, you think I’m crazy but see his stats below.) The other difference is the emergence of Dino Gregory as a reliable player late in his career. The Maryland internet fans have bashed this youngster for 3-1/2 years but he has developed a nice 15-18 foot jump shot and gives a good effort defensively and on the boards for an undersized forward. These two players are the complementary scorers to Williams that the Terps have needed all year. Now the pressure is off Mosley, Bowie and Tucker and they can play defense and contribute in other ways and not be counted on for scoring.

Stoglin (last 4 ACC games) 20.3 ppg 6.5 apg 2.5 tpg 60% from field, 63% from 3-point and 90% from foul line

Gregory (last 4 ACC games) 14.8 ppg 7 rpg 55% from field, 80% from foul lineI like the Terps chances at UNC better than their chances at Miami. I may be wrong but I believe that they have never won in Miami.

gw67

Thanks for the updates on Maryland. To beat the tarheels they will have to hit some outside shots. Being an inside scoring team does not bode well against henson and zeller. But your observations on Stogln and Gregory's improvment in scoring may be the thing that give Maryland the upset. Go Duke!

[gw67]

My two cents on last night’s Md-UNC game -

It was evident from the beginning that the Terps were in trouble. The Heels, a so-so three-point shooting team, made three of them very early, their big men were controlling their offensive boards and getting second and third shots and, worst of all, Henson was making it very difficult for the Terps to shoot from in close. I came away very impressed with the Heels performance. Earlier this year, they looked out of sync and not at all like a team with six McDonald’s All Americans. Since elevating Marshall to a starter, the team has a completely new persona and they are playing with a lot of energy and confidence. Zeller and Henson are playing very well as are Marshall and Barnes. Last night, McDonald found his stroke and Strickland joined Marshall in distributing the ball among their teammates. They are a much better team than they were just a few weeks ago and their game next weekend against the Devils ought to be hotly contested and reminiscent of the games played between these two when both were very good.

For a team that didn’t shoot well last night, I thought the Terps played a pretty good game. Overall, their defense was not bad. Zeller and McDonald had terrific games but they held the rest of the team to less than 30%. UNC had a major size advantage and started off by seriously outrebounding the smaller Terps but Maryland came back strong and was only outrebounded 46-42 for the game. The Heels also took away the Terps main offensive weapon (the layup) but, to their credit, the Terps continued to go to the hole against the trees and made a bunch of close-in shots in the second half.

Among the players last night, Zeller, Henson, Williams and Stoglin gave performances worthy of All Conference selection. IMO, Zeller and Henson are coming on too late for selection as first teamers but you can never tell how the Carolina-centric sportswriters will vote. I see both as 2nd team All ACC. Williams was fighting a stomach virus last night and didn’t show as much energy running the floor and playing defense as he normally does. However, he toughed it out and put in a very good effort on the boards (19 rebounds) against the taller Zeller and Henson. He is 1st team All ACC, IMO. Stoglin kept Maryand in the game last night in the second half. Ever since watching Guy Rodgers as a kid, I’ve loved watching short, left-handed guards. When driving to the hoop, Stoglin will often shoot the ball early and low in his motion (ala Bernard King and many others) which makes it difficult for the tall shot blockers to time for the block. For the last five ACC games, he is averaging 22 ppg and 6 apg. The three best guards in the league, Smith, Delaney and Jackson are all seniors. As of now, Stoglin may be the best returning guard in the ACC next year.

gw67

[devildeac]

Florida State picked up their 10th conference win by beating Miami 65-59. The Seminoles should make the tournament but a victory over UNC on March 2 would be a nice addition to their resume.

Won't happen without Singleton. But we can all hope...