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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Seattle, WA

    This Week in the ACC: 2/21-2/27

    Does anyone outside of Duke, UNC, and FSU actually want to make the tournament? Because it's sure hard to tell with the way teams have been playing. Outside of those three teams, only Maryland has been able to win as many as 3 conference games in a row - no one else can get any sustained momentum as they keep trading wins and losses. Virginia Tech, Maryland, Clemson, and BC can still play their way into the tournament, but they have to stop losing.

    Monday is dark.

    Tuesday gives us a game that Virginia Tech simply can't lose. They travel to Wake Forest, losers of 15 of their last 17, including 5 homes losses by an average of 17.5 points a game. The Hokies mopped the floor with Wake in Blacksburg, winning by 29.

    [257]Wake Forest hosts [30]Virginia Tech

    Wednesday is a busy day, with 4 conference matchups and a non-conference battle of top 25 opponents. Starting there first, Duke hosts Temple during its "off" week, and hopes to fare far better than it did in the last "off" week game. Temple, for its part, is riding an 8-game winning streak that's put it within a half game of Xavier for the A-10 lead. In conference, Maryland gets their first chance for a statement win down the stretch, hosting Florida State. In reality, it's probably not all that much of a statement - FSU is just 3-3 on the road, with the wins at Miami, Wake, and Georgia Tech, and the losses all by double digits. Plus, if you believe Pomeroy's assessment (and I don't, at least not with regard to Maryland), the Terps are actually the better team and a 77% favorite. But it would still be a big win for the Terps in their drive toward a bid. UNC travels down Tobacco Road to take on NC State - the Pack has been frisky of late, knocking off Clemson in Raleigh and then taking Maryland right down to the wire in the Comcast Center (it was 71-71 before the Terps finished things off on a 16-9 run). BC hosts Miami, a must-win game for the Eagles, who have the easiest road to 10 conference wins among the middle of the pack teams. And in the "teams unlikely to have any postseason" category, Virginia travels to Georgia Tech.

    [1]Duke hosts [34]Temple
    [96]Georgia Tech hosts [113]Virginia
    [79]NC State hosts [12]North Carolina
    [70]Boston College hosts [68]Miami
    [22]Maryland hosts [40]Florida State

    Thursday is dark.

    Friday is dark.

    Saturday Another busy Saturday in the ACC, with 5 conference matchups on tap. Starting with the noon game, BC heads down to Charlottesville, hoping their day in the JPJ is more like Maryland's and less like Clemson's and Virginia Tech's. They're all must-wins from here on out for the Eagles. Battle Florida part II is in Tallahassee - the game in Coral Gables was a very close, low scoring affair, but FSU has home court this time around, and should be able to win with a little more comfort. NC State hopes to solidfy its chances for at least some post-season bid (NIT, CIT, CBI) with a home date against Georgia Tech. Clemson hosts Wake Forest in what should be a comfortable victory - as bad as Wake is at home, the Deacs are much worse on the road. And then the nightcap - a big battle in Blacksburg as the Hokies host Duke with their last chance for a marquee win before the ACCT. A loss isn't devastating, but it could once again leave Virginia Tech with a bubble resume wholly lacking in impressive victories. For Duke, Carolina continues to breath down the Devils' necks for top billing in the ACC, and they can't afford a slip up.

    [113]Virginia hosts [70]Boston College
    [40]Florida State hosts [68]Miami
    [79]NC State hosts [96]Georgia Tech
    [36]Clemson hosts [248]Wake Forest
    [30]Virginia Tech hosts [1]Duke

    Sunday sends Maryland to Chapel Hill where they hope to cap off a big late-season week. Wins against Florida State and UNC could do wonders for the Terps' resume down the stretch. For its part, depending on the results of Wednesday and Saturday play, UNC could be playing for a tie for first.

    [12]North Carolina hosts [22]Maryland
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Duke controls their own destiny by having a one game lead over Carolina in the ACC regular season standings so all we have to do is win. However, it would be nice to gain a little breathing room with a Carolina loss. After the Tar Heels less than inspiring performance against Boston College, their games this week against State and Maryland have to be considered toss ups. Ken Pomeroy gives them a 72% chance to win both games and predicts 76-70 final scores. It wouldn't surprise me to see Gary Williams out coach Roy Williams and steal a road victory in Chapel Hill.
    Bob Green

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Duke controls their own destiny by having a one game lead over Carolina in the ACC regular season standings so all we have to do is win. However, it would be nice to gain a little breathing room with a Carolina loss. After the Tar Heels less than inspiring performance against Boston College, their games this week against State and Maryland have to be considered toss ups. Ken Pomeroy gives them a 72% chance to win both games and predicts 76-70 final scores. It wouldn't surprise me to see Gary Williams out coach Roy Williams and steal a road victory in Chapel Hill.
    I just can't figure out Maryland. They seem to be the ultimate "good bad team"--they really beat up on all the bad teams they've played but lose somewhat close (but not too close) games against the good teams. All in all, it drives up their computer rating without them really having a win of note (unless you count beating PSU as one).

    And yes, I'd love to see Gary steal one on the road.

  4. #4

    Maryland

    In eight of their ten losses they have played very competitively and with some clutch play at the end of several of these games (shooting free throws, taking care of the ball and making an average % of shots at the end) they could have won an additional 3-4 games; however, the players Williams counted on at the end of the games (Tucker, Mosley, Bowie) were simply not capable of getting them over the hump in these games. Against lesser opponents they play well throughout the entire game and there is no need for good play at the end. Yesterday might have been the first time this year that the Terps made a run at the end to open up the game and win it. In recent games, they have shot free throws better and have been a better offensive team (and worse defensive team). The reason is the better play in the backcourt, primarily by freshmen rather than seniors. As shown by Pomeroy, they are capable of playing good basketball; however, Maryland’s record this year is deserved.

    gw67

  5. #5
    The ACC update didn't even mention that State plays UNC?

    First of two big games for UNC this week.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Slackerb View Post
    The ACC update didn't even mention that State plays UNC?

    First of two big games for UNC this week.
    Looks like Julian fell asleep at the switch, though he did link to game stories. I'll let him know.

    Thanks,

    -jk

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Will State force Carolina to make perimeter shots? One can only hope. Here is another decent article from Dan Wiederer that discusses the Tar Heels' struggles:

    http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011...378?sac=Sports

    Hopefully, Sidney Lowe watched tape of the Boston College game. Tracy Smith and C.J. Leslie need strong performances to contain Zeller and Henson inside. The Fayetteville Observer also has a position by position breakdown:

    http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011...293?sac=Sports

    State's Richard Howell will miss the game with a head injury.
    Bob Green

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Will State force Carolina to make perimeter shots? One can only hope. Here is another decent article from Dan Wiederer that discusses the Tar Heels' struggles:

    http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011...378?sac=Sports

    Hopefully, Sidney Lowe watched tape of the Boston College game. Tracy Smith and C.J. Leslie need strong performances to contain Zeller and Henson inside. The Fayetteville Observer also has a position by position breakdown:

    http://fayobserver.com/articles/2011...293?sac=Sports

    State's Richard Howell will miss the game with a head injury.
    I am doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on defense to deny UNC the interior.

    I am also doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on offense to deny UNC numerous runouts.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    I am doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on defense to deny UNC the interior.

    I am also doubtful that State can stay sufficiently organized on offense to deny UNC numerous runouts.
    I agree with you on this. State appears to have some horses but a poor jockey.

  10. #10
    Join Date
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    Norfolk, VA
    State started fast and led 19-9 but Carolina has a 31-29 halftime lead. The Wolfpack missed a lot of 3-pointers (2-11) in the first half so they need to look inside more. Carolina shot 3-8 from behind the 3-point line. Strickland (9 points) and Marshall (7 points) are leading the way for the Tar Heels. Harrison Barnes is 0-6 from the field. Tracy Smith has 8 points for State.
    Bob Green

  11. #11
    I want to just say, the refs in this game are brutal. They're missing foul calls all over the place, culminating in a sequence a second ago where State shoves Henson 5 feet, then the refs miss a Henson goaltend, then Banres is given a bail out foul instead of a walk.

    Meanwhile they just called a goaltend on a rebound.

    (Oh and an intentional foul earlier despite the hand being ON THE FREAKING BALL. Unbelievable.)
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  12. #12
    I hate to be the guy who complains about the refs. But this is just beyond terrible. UNC mugs Tracy Smith, no call.

    I thought this was an NC State home game!
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  13. #13

    Tyler Zeller...what the heck

    So I am watching the State and UNC game. State inserts this big guy that Carolina seems to have trouble with. Zeller comes back in and immediately starts flopping and falling down, and the refs buy it hook line and sinker They show a replay of one and of course Giminiski and Raycom who just love the heels, says this is obviously not a fake by Zeller. It just angers me so much to watch Raycom foam at the mouth over UNC. Don't even get me started about the Tech called in the first half.

  14. #14
    Join Date
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    I hate to be the guy who complains about the refs. But this is just beyond terrible. UNC mugs Tracy Smith, no call.

    I thought this was an NC State home game!
    Sidney Lowe just got T'd Up after Henson and Zeller team up to mug Tracy Smith once again.
    Bob Green

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    I hate to be the guy who complains about the refs. But this is just beyond terrible. UNC mugs Tracy Smith, no call.

    I thought this was an NC State home game!
    Forget it, loran. It's ACC basketball.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Forget it, loran. It's ACC basketball.
    Agree. The Harrow turnover when State had the 3 on 2 break down 5 points was the killer. HB then did his normal "I must hit a 3 near the end of the game" deal, and boom they are down 8 instead of 3 with 2 minutes to go. That was the ball game right there.

    The thing is, there was no need for Harrow to make that pass. All he had to do was drive the ball. Leslie would have been open trailing the play.

    Big sigh...

  17. #17
    Mind you, BC and NC State have shown that UNC's O is very easy to beat.

    Remember, State and BC have the 2nd and 3rd worst defenses in the ACC. But both have done a good job on UNC, though UNC did shoot above average if you include the FTs at the end.

    BC was closer, because well, they're well coached. Their players can execute a strategy. State's players would randomly stop doubling the big guys, fall for fakes on 3 pointers, and let up too many transition baskets.

    If Duke learns from this obviously to double every guy in the post and let them take 3s, they will win.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Speaking of BC, they sure blew it tonight. Losing to Miami at home -- so much for their hopes for an NCAA bid. They were 6-6 with 3 very winnable games and a game at Va Tech that was not impossible for them. 9-7 or even 10-6 seemed like a possibility. Ahh well. Another ACC bubble team goes poop.

    --Jason "anyone in the conference want to play in the post-season?" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Speaking of BC, they sure blew it tonight. Losing to Miami at home -- so much for their hopes for an NCAA bid. They were 6-6 with 3 very winnable games and a game at Va Tech that was not impossible for them. 9-7 or even 10-6 seemed like a possibility. Ahh well. Another ACC bubble team goes poop.

    --Jason "anyone in the conference want to play in the post-season?" Evans
    Oh, I forgot to mention that Maryland got a big win over FSU. The Terps go to Chapel Hill this weekend with a simple mandate... win, and you will go dancing (so long as you don't so something idiotic, like lose at home to Virginia).

    Here's to them pulling it off!! We know Gary's bunch can make it hard on Carolina to score... but can the Terps offense find a way to get to the 70-something points they will need to win?

    -Jason "rooting for Gary... it ain't easy" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Oh, I forgot to mention that Maryland got a big win over FSU. The Terps go to Chapel Hill this weekend with a simple mandate... win, and you will go dancing (so long as you don't so something idiotic, like lose at home to Virginia).

    Here's to them pulling it off!! We know Gary's bunch can make it hard on Carolina to score... but can the Terps offense find a way to get to the 70-something points they will need to win?

    -Jason "rooting for Gary... it ain't easy" Evans
    I'm going to say yes. Even though it's AT Carolina, so was BC. Meanwhile, Maryland actually has the personnel necessary to perform the ideal D on Carolina...a D that can handle the inside man, but has issues with the outside shot. And unlike BC and NC State, Maryland has a good D.

    You're right, Maryland's issue will be offensively, but I feel that BC and NC State DIDNT execute the defense perfectly and MD will. That'll be enough that even mediocre O should be enough for UMD to win.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

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