Yeah, Pomeroy rates BYU's SOS as 45th in the nation while Duke's is 42nd. BYU's schedule stinks!
BYU's wins over Arizona, Utah State, and San Diego State are more impressive than any win Duke has except UNC. BYU and San Diego State have played harder schedules than you might imagine... though they have also played a lot of teams that simply had next to no chance of beating them.
But, back on topic... NPOY is a tough one to project this year. It has gone through several waves.
Kemba Walker was looking like a runaway winner in November and even December. Then Jimmer put on a real show in January -- 39 at UNLV, 47 against Utah, 42 more versus Colorado St, and then 43 against San Diego St. As the same time, UConn appeared to be fading and Walker sorta moved out of the conversation.
The latest fad has been Sullinger. As Ohio State ascended to #1 in the polls and remained undefeated for so long, it seemed the momentum was headed in his direction. However, lately, it seems there has been more and more talk about Nolan.
If Duke climbs back to #1 and Nolan has some big national TV games, I could see him getting the nod. It would not hurt if he managed to hold off Marshall for the ACC assist title to become the first player in history to lead the ACC in both scoring and assists.
I won't be all that surprised to see the NPOY awards spread out among the 3 leading contenders. The major awards are the Wooden, the Naismith, and the AP POY. The Sporting News, UPI, the NABC, and a few other organizations also give out awards that are worth noting. It would be kinda nice if the three front-runners split several of these.
If I had to rate the odds of any of these guys winning each of the major awards, I would put it like this right now--
Sullinger - 40%
Fredette - 30%
Smith - 25%
Walker - 5%
--Jason "the final 2 weeks... and it is still up for grabs" Evans