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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Fairfax County, Virginia

    ACC Teams that will go to the "Big Dance"

    We are now less than a month from Selection Sunday, with many critical games (ACC and other conferences) still to be played. However, just for fun, who will represent the ACC in the NCAA Tournament? I speculate that:

    IN:
    a) Duke is a guaranteed selectee, as is UNC (perhaps, absent a most unlikely “total meltdown”)
    b) VPI will win three or four more regular season contests (UVA and Wake, certainly) and will finally be included
    c) Clemson will win three more regular season games (State, Wake and Miami) and will dance

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    d) Even with Singleton’s injury, Florida State will conclude regular season play with three more victories (Wake, Miami and State) and may be selected (however, advancement in the ACC Tournament will be critical)

    OUT:
    e) Maryland and BC will not make it unless the they either win our Tournament or beat UNC at home (too few wins and no “signature” victories)
    f) Miami, State, Wake, UVa and Georgia Tech will not receive invitations, absent winning the ACC Tournament

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by 4decadedukie View Post
    .... c) Clemson will win three more regular season games (State, Wake and Miami) and will dance

    e) Maryland and BC will not make it unless the they either win our Tournament or beat UNC at home (too few wins and no “signature” victories)
    I tend to agree with this, but one of us needs to call Joe Lunardi. [See my "Help" post today on Lunardi thread.]

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    It looks like no team with fewer than 10 conference wins should even consider the Ncaas. And 10 wins may not get the job done as VPI found out last year.

  4. #4

    acc bubble

    Let's get the obvious out of the way -- Duke and North Carolina are in, playing the rest of the way for seeds.

    Miami, NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are out -- barring a miracle run to win the ACC Tournament.

    That much is easy.

    It's the five middle teams that are tough. Not sure I agree with your analysis of their chances, although any of the five could play their way in or out, depending on the finish.

    (1) Florida State is in the best shape. They are 18-7 (8-3 ACC) and No. 47 in RPI (not the best computer measure, but the one the Selection Committee relies on). They have a signature win (Duke), although they also have a fairly bad loss (Auburn). In fact, their resume is so strong I'd say they are in (Lundardi and Palm currently have them in the field) if it weren't for the loss of Singleton, their best player. The Selection Committee will look closely to see how they play without Singleton. They finish up at Wake, at Maryland, at NC State with Miami and UNC at home. They HAVE to beat Miami and Wake down the stretch ... plus maybe one more, either on the road or in the ACC Tournament. But they should be in.

    (2) Virginia Tech (17-7, 7-4 ACC, No. 57 RPI). Last night's home win over Maryland was HUGE. They've got games at Virginia (which beat them in Blacksburg) and at Wake Forest coming up. They really need to beat those two bottom feeders. That would set up the GameDay visit game with Duke. THAT win could make them a lock. Without it, they need everything else -- it's followed by home game with BC and a trip to Clemson. Right now, Lunardi has them as one of his last four in (playing in one of the four play-in games). Beat Duke and they can do better than that.

    (3) Boston College (16-9, 6-5 ACC, No. 43 RPI) -- I keep expecting them to fall from contention, but their strong RPI keeps them in the picture. One bad loss (Yale ... the Harvard loss isn't that bad, Tommy has the Crimson at No. 44 in the RPI) and one good win (Texas A&M). But to make it, they need to finish strong in the conference. A win at UNC Saturday will be tough, but it would give them a big boost. Without it, I don't know. They finish up with Miami at home (winnable) at Virginia (winnable) at Virginia Tech (which needs it just as badly as BC) and with a sure win over Wake at home. On paper, they finish 19-11 9-7 going into the ACC with an RPI in the low 40s. That's very similar to the resume that Georgia Tech took into the ACC Tourney last year ... they solidified their bid with a strong run to the title game. Not saying BC has to get that far, but they need to win the three games they're favored in and add either a win at UNC, a win at VPI or a strong ACC tourney run.

    (4) Clemson (17-8, 6-5 ACC): I just don't see how the Tigers can do it. There are no resume wins, the RPI is in the 70s. The 2-point loss to UNC Sunday was a killer. Okay, they've got a sure win with Wake coming up and have a chance on the road at NC State tomorrow night and at Miami, but even sweeping those three won't get it done. Can they win at Duke? Unlikely, but that's the won thing that can get them in. Maybe a homecourt win over VPI to close the regular season, plus a strong tourney run ... but it's going to be real tough. If in matters, Lunardi added the Tigers to his list of bubble teams, but noted that they are near the bottom of that list.

    (5) Maryland (16-10, 5-6 ACC): Tempted to drop them to not-a-chance. Instead, I'll leave them at not-much-of-a-chance. A win last night in Blacksburg would have really helped. Instead, it's a killer. They've been close a lot, but they haven't beaten anybody that matters. They get NC State and Virginia at home, which should be easy, and FSU at home, which is at least winnable. Road games at Miami (possible) and at UNC -- unlikely, but they have won their before. But they've played themselves into position were they almost have to win out in the league, plus do some good work in Greensboro. Otherwise, Gary Williams is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in seven years!

    I'll say this, the best thing about UNC's resurgance is that it gives the bubble teams a second chance to pick up a signature win (besides Duke). Unfortunately, no bubble team has cashed in on the chance so far -- Georgia Tech beat the Heels, but the Jackets are so far out of it that it doesn't matter.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    (2) Virginia Tech (17-7, 7-4 ACC, No. 57 RPI). Last night's home win over Maryland was HUGE. They've got games at Virginia (which beat them in Blacksburg) and at Wake Forest coming up. They really need to beat those two bottom feeders. That would set up the GameDay visit game with Duke. THAT win could make them a lock. Without it, they need everything else -- it's followed by home game with BC and a trip to Clemson. Right now, Lunardi has them as one of his last four in (playing in one of the four play-in games). Beat Duke and they can do better than that.
    Huh? Unless you're looking at an Insider update, something's wrong here. Lunardi has BC as last 4 in. Hence my "Help" question/post on Lunardi thread a few minutes ago.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by 4decadedukie View Post
    We are now less than a month from Selection Sunday, with many critical games (ACC and other conferences) still to be played. However, just for fun, who will represent the ACC in the NCAA Tournament? I speculate that:

    IN:
    a) Duke is a guaranteed selectee, as is UNC (perhaps, absent a most unlikely “total meltdown”)
    b) VPI will win three or four more regular season contests (UVA and Wake, certainly) and will finally be included
    c) Clemson will win three more regular season games (State, Wake and Miami) and will dance

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    d) Even with Singleton’s injury, Florida State will conclude regular season play with three more victories (Wake, Miami and State) and may be selected (however, advancement in the ACC Tournament will be critical)

    OUT:
    e) Maryland and BC will not make it unless the they either win our Tournament or beat UNC at home (too few wins and no “signature” victories)
    f) Miami, State, Wake, UVa and Georgia Tech will not receive invitations, absent winning the ACC Tournament
    Good summary 4DD. Obviously Duke and NC are in. Duke a 1 or 2 seed (a 1 if they win out). NC has earned a 5-6 seed, but may get a 4 on name and 'improving' trend. (I hope not, as a 4 probably gets them to Charlotte for the first two rounds, along with us.)

    VPI seems in finally (that MD win at home last night really helped - and even the TV announcers were already building up the "opportunity" vis-a-vis the NCAAT and seeding for their game hosting Duke in a couple weeks...)

    Does Clemson have enough signature wins to assure inclusion? I don't recall their SOS being really high (?). But I do think odds are maybe 75% of their inclusion, especially with several easy wins upcoming.

    FSU has signature wins and third-place standing in ACC. I don't see them missing the dance, but the injury certainly hurts. Damn - was really looking forward to NC having to play there just before the Duke game... Unless they collapse w/o Singleton, I think they are likely in (say 66%-75% probability).

    It is a shame for BC, as a month ago I had them going dancing. I don't have them totally gone, but would need some surprises down the stretch to go. MD still had a slim hope until yesterday's loss. The DC media here is still playing up that they can still do it, but "would have to run the table probably (and make a dent in the ACCT)."

    The rest are out, short of a miracle in the ACCT. Poor Sidney. Was nice to know ya!


    Still, I think that the ACC would be pleased to have five teams among the 68 dancers. Let's hope Clemson and FSU finish strong.

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