I don't think the height of our 3 small guards is a problem. It's the fact that we have 3 small guards who aren't quick and have trouble against quicker players. Plenty of teams (including really good ones) start 2 guards under 6'3". Butler even started 3 guards under 6'3" during much of their two great Tourney runs. The difference was that those teams had guys were really quick and good defensively. Curry and Cook were not very quick or very good defensively last year, and Thornton was not a great on-ball defender against quicker players (he actually did better against bigger, slower players).
I'm hopeful that a healthier Cook is quicker and better defensively than he was last year. We'll see, though.
Yeah, Sulaimon, Murphy, Jefferson, and a healthy Cook could go a long way toward addressing some of the following problems of last year's team:
- slow PG unable to create for others (perhaps a healthier Cook will help here)
- poor defense at the guard spots (Sulaimon and perhaps a healthier Cook will help here)
- undersized and poor rebounding from the SF spot (Murphy and perhaps Jefferson will help here)
- lack of quickness and versatility at PF (Jefferson will help here)
There's a lot to make up for with the losses of Miles and Rivers and the possible redshirt of Dawkins. But Sulaimon, Murphy, Jefferson, Marshall, and a healthier Cook should more than offset those losses.
Can anyone recall what exactly Notre Dame did to defeat Syracuse last year (outside of hitting their shots)? Perhaps the blueprint to defeating a team that's bigger, quicker and more athletic than you can be dulplicated from time to time with success. However, I would truly like to see Duke play more of a true zone (sometimes).
I think that Duke improves dramatically and immediately right out of the box. Sulaimon can play the one or the two, and, while dangerous as a shooter and scorer inside the defense, you will notice neither as his distinguishing feature on the court. The guy can play and loves the game, that is, the five on five, both ends of the court, five on five game. He is real good at all of it. No, he won't win you games you would otherwise lose the way Rivers could, but he also won't put you in the position that he has to as Rivers could. The kid could well be the type of player you guys have gotten spoiled on, someone with a bit of Nolan Smith in him and perhaps more than a bit of Grant Hill in him. without the extraordnary package of height that all but defied imagination for the whole of who he was and what he did on the court in addition to the amazing snatches, throwdowns, and defense against talented guys with size. Sulaimon, I think, could well be the smart, athletic, skilled, and lover-of-synchronicity that can make Duke/Duke again.
Duke has needed a guy like Jefferson since Kyle left and perhaps before. Myle's best ball might well be in front of him; it seemed like it was ever m,ore so each game he played down the final stretch of his career. He had swag those final games that seemed to be of a piece with an ability to present and deliver as dangerous on the offensive end, a Man to be contended with on the other end, and a freakish athletic big when running the court. All that began really coming together on the court late in his days at Duke, too late for the real Miles to have been what he could be at Duke.
From what little I've read about Jefferson, he'll be and do whatever is needed to make people worry about him all the time that he is on the court. Will he be great? Who knows. But, he will hurt people in every way imaginable. Perhaps the player who will get the most benefit from Jefferson's presence is Kelly, whom I think will have to decide who he wants to be and be all he can be doing that. I'm not exactly sure what that last little turn of phrase means, but I think it captures where the upside of Kelly resides. As the teacher in the Karate Kid put it, "you ride on the left side of the road, okay, you ride on the right side, okay, you ride in the middle, squish." Ryan, I am not saying cannot have diverse ways of playing--diversity is nice. But, I think that he needs to decide if he is a big who can play little or a little who can play big. I think that there is a bit of ambiguity in his mind as to which it is, and that that ambiguity allows Ryan to hide when he should rise and prevail. Jefferson, I think, makes Ryan chose. I think I know what choice he will make, and that it will turn out great for Ryan and for Duke. I doubt that he will play "squish" any longer, and that will be of tremendous value.
The array of talent this year's team presents I think will permit much more movement of interior players to shake them free for catches with great position, for catches where their poise and skills will leave defenders with little chance. I have to think that Marshall Plumlee would surprise the heck about of people if we see some organized-movement, interior screens, etc, built in as first or second options in offensive sets/plays. If the kid catches it in the spots that Zeller routinely did, if he catches it even sometimes on the move with the space that Zeller did, he will be more than a handful to contend with, much more. That will take pressure off Mason and allow him to play with a sense of freedom that we have not seen. Jefferson, why Jefferson will be the wild card that no one will be able to account for, not with the kind of resources his game will demand. And, if he has some rookie games, so what. He'll be fighting for playing time with Harrison anyway.
We haven't yet begun to talk about where Murphy fits into all of this, how he can be utilized to change how the offense and defense for that matter presents. He will push Ryan as much as Jefferson to make up his mind and to be good at what he choses. He might also be on the court at the small forward or big guard when Duke is at its best, or will he Ryan? I think Murphy and Sulaimon will push Kevin to be more, how shall I say it, proactive on offense--that Duke will need less of the steadiness that he brought and was desperately needed last year. That doesn't necessarily mean more shooting or scoring, but rather more movement, movement that is more-fitting for a well rounded and good-decision making team.
Curry and Cook will be wild cards. I think that you will see Curry more as a two to Sulaimon at the one. Whatever Curry might give away in guarding a bigger 2, hey, the two is going to have fits trying to stop Curry's three and have no chance in the world staying with him if Curry goes when the three is overplayed. Besides, the inside help can now come from a variety of places in a variety of ways. I'm just guessing now, but defending the exterior for a guy like Curry might, in such contexts as Duke will present, require that Curry take away certain preferred options from the guy he is guarding and force the guy to go where he doesn't want to, where there will be danger both because that is the offensive guy's weakest option and because there is the strong potential of help. So, Curry's defense will, I am guessing, be far less of an issue than in the past.
Cook. Really, i couldn'tguess. Coming in I thought that he would be sensational, and he still might be. If he is, how Duke will look is beyond my vision. It will, however, will be a beautiful thing to see. If the guy regains his ability to have his feet under him and his body ready to deliver from the foul lane extended to the three line and beyond, his ability to bust defenses wide open could be alarming.
So, do I think that this year's team has reason to worry about what it lost? I don't think that that is the right question. Miles was contributing at an increasing rate that portended a possible dominating force as a power forward who could literally do it all. He seemed to be playing with a smile of a guy who discovered chocolate. Sure he'll be missed. And, Rivers, well the guy was lightening in a bottle and, if you needed one guy to carry you, he was as good as it gets this side of Kyrie. But, it was time for both to move on. As the kid said to his old man in the movie Sounder (before most of your times but it is a must see) as his father was driving him in a mule-pulled cart toward the train that would take him to college, "I'm sure gonna miss this place, but I ain't gonna worry about it." I wouldn't worry about Duke next year either.
I definitely agree on the Nolan Smith comparison. I don't see the Grant Hill comparison at all. I think Smith is as perfect a comp as one can get for what Sulaimon can do, though.
I don't think Kelly has much lack of clarity to his game. He's a perimeter-oriented PF (or stretch-4, for short). He's not a post player offensively. He's not a perimeter player defensively. He's like a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki: he plays his offense from the outside in, with the perimeter shot being the staple of his game. I don't think that's going to change next year regardless of who backs him up at PF.
I doubt that Marshall and Mason will share the floor together, so I don't think Marshall will allow Mason to play more freely. Remember, Marshall, Jefferson, and Hairston (not Harrison) will likely be competing for the backup minutes to Mason and Kelly. That's about 20-25 minutes per game unless Jefferson also backs up Murphy at SF (which would mean about 30-35 minutes total for those 3 assuming we'll play 3 guards some of the time). So I don't think any of the 3 backup bigs are going to be huge impact players next year. Certainly not more than one of them. They'll be quality backups, but I don't see any of them starring next year.
Murphy will be the SF next year. Given the depth we have at SG and PF, he's not going to play either of those spots. He'll almost certainly be the starter at SF unless Dawkins decides not to redshirt. In that scenario, it's probably a toss-up.
I think you're perhaps guilty of a bit of hyperbole here; Curry isn't quick for a PG or a SG. He's played most of his career at SG and hasn't been a blow-by scorer (even when we had Smith and Irving occupying attention at PG). Beyond that, I'm not sure that playing Sulaimon at PG is a great idea. I think it creates the same problems for him that it created for Nolan Smith early in Smith's career. It wasn't until Smith's senior year that he really became comfortable at PG. I don't know that it'll take Sulaimon quite as long to figure things out, but I do think he'll struggle in the PG role if he has to play it as a freshman. As such, I think the PG will be one of Cook, Curry, or Thornton (and more likely one of the first two).
One thing that I find interesting is that a few of our guys will likely be playing different positions on offense vs defense, depending on matchups.
Rasheed will likely play mostly SG on offense, maybe occasionally PG or SF, but on defense he may just draw the toughest perimeter player on the other team every night, whether it's a PG, SG, or SF. It seems likely he'll be our best one-on-one perimeter defender from all the reports and analysis so far. Curry just isn't quick or long enough to guard superior athletes. It remains to be seen how much Cook will improve as a defender as he returns to full health and gains experience/coaching. I do love Tyler's toughness and competitiveness but he fouls too much for my taste and I'm not sure how much playing time he'll be getting. I'm actually hoping that Quinn makes a leap and can handle most of the PG duties next year. I see so much potential in him.
With our bigs, I see Ryan defending the PF most of the time with Alex and Amile splitting time at the SF spot. But when we're on offense, Ryan will likely be somewhere out by the 3-point line most of the time. I'm not sure how comfortable Alex will be shooting the 3, but I suspect that he and Amile will be playing closer to the basket, either slashing to the basket or looking for offensive rebounds a lot. It sounds like Amile needs time to work on his shot but that he's very savvy around the paint area. In effect, Ryan will be the SF on offense while Alex and Amile will be more like PFs.
I'm not really sure if this all really matters but it may end up presenting matchup problems for other teams if we play things right. I'm sure the coaching staff is excited about the versatility of these guys and is already figuring out ways to exploit it. Can't wait to see how it all unfolds.
The USA u18 team roster has been cut from 23 to 14 with with Rasheed making the cut. The final roster will have 12 so he's not there yet but it would be great for him to make the team.
http://www.usabasketball.com/mens/u18/roster.html
My son sam, meeting Rasheed at the Duke Eye clinic....Rasheed signed Sam's cap right next to Nolan, Kyle, Jon and Dr. Terry Kim !! lol
This guy is already coming across as one of the nicest duke players we've ever met....totally approachable and extremely nice...
"One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese