andruw jones

[Channing]

I'm sorry- I don't know how anyone can be considered a superstar, or even a star, and be hitting under 200 this late in the season (unless there is some injury we dont know about). Am I being too hard on the guy? I know he has a good body of work, but he is an automatic out, and is dragging down the middle of the braves lineup - which does not really strike fear into opponents at the best of times. I am sure he is going to ask for 15 mil or so a year this offseason, and I HOPE the Braves dont give it to him.

Yea his defense is great, but outside of a short stretch last year for a few months when he was really awesome offensively, i have always viewed him as more of a compiler than an actual superstar. He hit a lot of homeruns, but I dont remember him being very clutch or coming up with big hits.

Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest after three straight shutouts.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I'm sorry- I don't know how anyone can be considered a superstar, or even a star, and be hitting under 200 this late in the season (unless there is some injury we dont know about). .

I watched a little of the Braves game today and noticed that when AJ came to bat he was below the "Mendoza line" (a .200 batting average), and then made outs his next two at bats. The announcers said he was something like 2 for 19 and 3 for 39, or something close to that. My thought at the time was "he must have some injury or illness that has caused his poor play". Maybe he needs to have his eyes examined. Maybe he has the clap (Jimmy Dugan/Tom Hanks of A League of Their Own would love that...). Maybe he's just pressing too much and is over anxious at the plate.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm sorry- I don't know how anyone can be considered a superstar, or even a star, and be hitting under 200 this late in the season (unless there is some injury we dont know about). Am I being too hard on the guy? I know he has a good body of work, but he is an automatic out, and is dragging down the middle of the braves lineup - which does not really strike fear into opponents at the best of times. I am sure he is going to ask for 15 mil or so a year this offseason, and I HOPE the Braves dont give it to him.

Yea his defense is great, but outside of a short stretch last year for a few months when he was really awesome offensively, i have always viewed him as more of a compiler than an actual superstar. He hit a lot of homeruns, but I dont remember him being very clutch or coming up with big hits.

Jeez, they guy is having a truly awful year, but how does that project backwards on what had been a GREAT career.

Just a compiler? In the last two previous seasons, the guy has "compiled" 92 home runs, 257 RBIs, 204 runs scored with an OPS of .910. Oh, and he did that while winning his eighth and ninth straight gold gloves in centerfield. He came into this year on a career pace to hit 700-plus home runs in his career.

Did you watch the Braves the last two seasons? Nobody on those team had as many clutch or game-winning hits. Two years ago, he homered to either tie the game or put the Braves ahead 21 times! With Chipper banged up both years, Andruw was the team's most effective offensive weapon -- by far.

Absolutely yes, coming into this year, Andruw Jones was a superstar - even as he drops below the Mendoza line this year. The operative world is "was" -- his collapse is (or should be) one of the biggest stories of the year.

It's interesting that we haven't heard any physical reason (I keep wondering about eye-sight too) for the collapse. I've seen a number of pitchers suddenly lose it mentally (Rick Ankiel and Steve Blass come to mind), but aside from injury, I can't think of a position player as young as Andruw lose it so suddenly (in Mattingly's case, there was a back problem ... age caught Dale Murphy pretty suddenly, but he was in his late 30s when that happened).

I watch in horror, but also some fascination, as Jones struggles to regain his form. Obviously, I'd agree that if nothing changes, no way I'd sign him to a new contract. But even if his career is over, that doesn't erase what he did up until age 31.

He was a superstar, by any definition of the term ...

[Channing]

yes - i have in fact watched the Braves over the last two seasons, just I have watched them over the last 16 years or so (sorry not before that - i didnt really start following baseball closely until I was 9). Like I said, he had a period 2 years ago where he seemed to get every game winning hit we needed. That was as clutch as can be . . . but other than that, imo, he has been a compiler. I personally don't remember him being very clutch, and I remember being strike out prone.

He has great numbers, but superstars in the modern era hit for average as well as power - look at the superstars out htere today (these are the ones who came to mind that are power hitters - that is why i left out Jeter and Ichiro etc): Manny Ramirez (career avg .314), Vladimir Guerero (.325), Barry Bonds (.299), Albert Pujols (.330), A-Rod (.307), David Ortiz (.285), Chipper Jones (.305), Miguel Tejada (.287), Miguel Cabrera (.312). Now . . . Andruw Jones - career avg .264. He has 3 seasons in his career where he has hit .275 (one at .275, one at .277 and one at .303). Does something not seem right? Which one of these is not like the others? I'm sorry - those are not super star numbers. Batting average doesnt lie: RBIs is all about who is on base when you come up. OPS is a good indicator - but gets skewed by guys who hit a lot of home runs (which Andruw Does) but does not take into account hitting efficiency. BA, imo, is the truest indicator - and Andruw doesnt make the grade compared to other superstars.

Yes - he is an OUTSTANDING center fielder, and has been the best in the business for a while, but he has 1300 strikeouts over the last 11 seasons - that is rougly 120 strikeouts per season. He is a star, I will grant you, or I should say has been a star - but my question to you - have you actually watched the Braves over the last 11 seasons, or do you just read the box scores, watch top plays on sportscenter, and listen to the talking heads.

[Dukerati]

Amen Steven. I watch an unhealthy amount of Braves games (thanks MLB extra innings) and I think your analysis is pretty spot on. I could back up your numbers with even more numbers (RISP, OBP, etc.) but I think the point is already made. What makes it more distressing is that Andruw has gone on the record and said that although Terry Pendleton has been trying to get him to use center and right field more, he is a self-proclaimed pull hitter and he's not going to change. Ugh, it is BEYOND frustrating.

I do have a couple amendments/updates to your points Steven. First, Andruw WAS a great center fielder. In the Braves baseball thread, I linked an ESPN article that quantitatively showed his defensive decline through the years. By the numbers, Andruw is now an average defensive center fielder.

Second, Andruw is already gone from Atlanta. I was watching some game against the Nationals on TV this year, and the announcers quoted our beloved GM saying that Andruw was simply too expensive and that the Braves had no reasonable way to afford him. We are apparently committed to a hard line payroll of 80 million and are preferably looking to be somewhere in the 60 million area at the start of next year with all the management uncertainty. This has not gotten a lot of media coverage but Andruw is as good as gone.

[jma4life]

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/sha...ted_overr.html


Read this if you think Andruw's defense is really falling. He has lost weight this year and has gained back that step so I really think hes having one of the better defensive years of his career. If you don't want to read the article which basically tears apart Jason Stark's piece, here are some numbers for you. Hes leading baseball in putouts this year, (and is having one of the better years of his career in terms of putouts- on pace for the second most of his career) He's got the second best zone rating of his career. And if you really have watched the games, you'd realize that hes had as many diving catches this year as in any year of his career.

As for his hitting, its been simply embarassing and borderline disgraceful. But I can't sit back and let people tear apart his defense when this is really one of the best defensive seasons of his career.

[ivduke]

however, he couldn't hit Little League pitching right now. I keep hearing how Pendleton has figured out this issue and that issue yet I don't see any results. The guy is practically dropping to a knee on the majority of his swings---what gives? At this point, if he thinks he is getting $15/mill per season he is dreaming--no one--not even the Yankees---will pay him that much. He's one of my favorites (Chipper being the favorite), however he's painful to watch at this point. If the Braves can't score some runs soon (1 in 36 innings) I think Andruw's last days in an Atlanta jersey are somewhere short of the 30 mark.

[JasonEvans]

however, he couldn't hit Little League pitching right now. I keep hearing how Pendleton has figured out this issue and that issue yet I don't see any results. The guy is practically dropping to a knee on the majority of his swings---what gives? At this point, if he thinks he is getting $15/mill per season he is dreaming--no one--not even the Yankees---will pay him that much. He's one of my favorites (Chipper being the favorite), however he's painful to watch at this point. If the Braves can't score some runs soon (1 in 36 innings) I think Andruw's last days in an Atlanta jersey are somewhere short of the 30 mark.

Here's a theory-- Andruw really wants to stay in Atlanta but knows the Braves cannot make him an offer that is within $5 million of what other teams will offer. So, he tanks this season and brings his market value waaay down and then is able to re-sign with Atlanta.

That's about the stupidest thing I have ever written

-Jason "the Braves should offer him a 5-year, $50 million deal today-- but no way he would take it" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

He has great numbers, but superstars in the modern era hit for average as well as power - look at the superstars out htere today (these are the ones who came to mind that are power hitters - that is why i left out Jeter and Ichiro etc): Manny Ramirez (career avg .314), Vladimir Guerero (.325), Barry Bonds (.299), Albert Pujols (.330), A-Rod (.307), David Ortiz (.285), Chipper Jones (.305), Miguel Tejada (.287), Miguel Cabrera (.312). Now . . . Andruw Jones - career avg .264. He has 3 seasons in his career where he has hit .275 (one at .275, one at .277 and one at .303). Does something not seem right? Which one of these is not like the others? I'm sorry - those are not super star numbers. Batting average doesnt lie

So I guess Reggie Jackson (career batting average .262) and Mike Schmidt (career batting average .267) and Johnny Bench (career batting average .262) were not super stars ... after all, batting average does not lie, right?

The fact is, batting average is one of the LEAST revealing batting stats available. It's FAR less important that on-base percentage and slugging percentage. You suggest that OPS (which is OBP + SLP) is skewed because Andruw hits a lot of home runs ... well, duh! ... home runs produce runs and that the idea.

Let's take two guys with 10 plate appearances both. Player A gets four singles. Player B homers twice and walks twice in his 10 plate appearances.

Which is the more valuable? Obviously Player B is going to generate more runs -- he's on base as often as Player A and he creates more bases...

Now which stats reflect that reality:

Player A has a .400 batting average and a .800 OPS (.400 OBP + .400 SLP)
Player B has a .250 batting average and a 1.400 OPS (.400 OBP + 1.000 SLP)

This is all simple sabremetrics ...

How does this apply to Andruw Jones?

Well, I can compare him to a number of HOF-quality hitters:

AJones .264 BA, .343 OBP, .500 SLP, .843 OPS
Reggie Jackson .262 BA, .356 OBP, .490 SLP, .846 OPS
Carl Yasztremski .285 BA, .379 OBP, .462 SLP, .841 OPS
Johnny Bench .262 BA, .342 OBP, .476 SLP, .818 OPS
Pete Rose .303 BA, .380 OBP, .409 SLP, .789 OPS

Of that group, only Bench -- a gold glove catcher -- was anywhere near as valuable defensively as Jones.

Bill James has developed a far more complex and subtle comparison formula that sabremeticians use to compare hitters. His formula suggests that going into this season -- at the same age -- the most similar hitters to Andruw Jones were (in order of similarity):

1. Frank Robinson
2. Eddie Matthews
3. Johnny Bench
4. Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Ruben Sierra
6. Al Kaline
7. Ron Santo
8. Henry Aaron

That's a pretty strong list.

As for the suggestion that Andruw is just a "compiler" ... I'm not quite sure what that's supposed to mean -- a mediocre player who hangs around a long time and gets a lot of stats? But if such a player ends up with 600-plus home runs or 1,500 RBIs or 3,000 hits, isn't that as significant and valuable as a guy that has a handful of great seasons?

But the fact is, that doesn't apply to Andruw. His peak years are as good as anybody's. His last two seasons, he's had 92 home runs and 257 RBIs. Well, neither Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays ever had back to back seasons with that kind of production (Mays had 99 HRs and 223 RBIs; Mantle once hit 94 HRs back to back, but with 222 RBIs). Neither Joe DiMaggio nor Ted Williams ever hit 80 home runs in back-to-back seasons, much less 92.

As for clutch hitting, that's an awfully slippery subject. Ted Williams was lambasted during his career for his failure to produce in the clutch. He was a pretty good hitter anyway. I've watched a majority of Braves game on TBS since I got cable in 1981 and I honest disagree that Jones is not clutch. I know that two years ago, he led all baseball in game-winning hits. Even this season, when his game has gone to sh*t, he has 40-plus RBIs -- not bad for a team that can't score runs.

Andruw is having a TERRIBLE year at the plate (even as his defense has returned to previous high levels). It's easy to jump on him now. But I continue to insist that he was -- coming into this year -- one a pace to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He was a GREAT player -- considering his combination of power and defense at a key position, he was one of the 10 most valuable players in baseball.

He's not today ... who knows about tomorrow.

PS: As for your list of star players -- Pujols, Rameriz, Guerrero and A-Rod can certainly put their numbers up with anybody -- although none has the defensive value of Jones. Ortiz belongs up there too -- although he's older than Andruw and having just his fifth significant season (and is a worse defender than Manny).

Bonds numbers looked very much like Andruw's until he started juicing -- then he went off the charts.

Tejada has an .820 OPS -- significantly lower than Andruw's -- in fact, they have identical OBPs (.343). Cabrera looks like career a 900-plus OPS guy, but he's still a kid. Let him complete four full seasons before you throw him in the mix.

As for Jeter and Suzuki -- Jeter (.854 OPS) is a slightly more effective hitter than Andruw has been and he plays a key defensive position (although AJ is a better centerfielder than DJ is a shortstop, despite the three recent gold gloves). As for Suzuki -- he's far less effective at the plate (.819 OPS) than Jones has been (before this year).

Look, I'm not saying that Andruw was (coming into this season) the best hitter in baseball. He's not -- Pujols was. But he's been very near the top for a number of years and he's been one of the most valuable defensive players during that period. When you look at what he did at age 28 (51 HRs, 128 RBIs) and age 29 (41 HRs, 129 RBIs), you'd normally expect him to continue at that level through age 33-34, then gradually decline for 5-6 years. At that pace, he finishes his career in the top 10 all-time in homer runs and RBIs ... while being a great defender at a key defensive position.

That's not a "compiler" gentlemen. That's an all-time great.

If his current slump is long-term (it's already long enough!), he won't reach that level -- obviously.

[Dukerati]

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/sha...ted_overr.html

As for his hitting, its been simply embarassing and borderline disgraceful. But I can't sit back and let people tear apart his defense when this is really one of the best defensive seasons of his career.

Thanks for the link above jma4life. It was certainly refreshing to hear the other side although I do have some quibbles with what Boras (who is an admittedly biased source who probably spent weeks crunching numbers to try to show Andruw in a more positive light) claimed.

Boras focused on the number of putouts that Andruw recorded. However, Stark in his article accounted for that by comparing it against total chances. Basically, Andruw was getting to less balls with the same amount of chances. You can not do a simple analysis of putouts against other defensive center fielders without measuring the number of chances.

Second, the "zone" rating. The zone rating is a normalized stat that accounts for a center fielder's normal range. It is true that Andruw probably has a larger range than most and may be penalized for that but the point is that he has lost a LOT of range. The reason why he is so down in Stark's zone rating is because he's not getting to a lot of the balls that he used to. There is nothing wrong comparing Andruw to Andruw because that is what his reputation is built on. That being said, I do feel better about Andruw's defense now and feel that he is still one of the top fielder's in the game.

As for Olympic Fan's points, I think you make a very strong case for Andruw's numbers. My only observation is that while Andruw's numbers look good from a historical context, they become considerably less so from a relative context. Hall of Famers are often judged by how they stacked up with their peers and in this day and age, I think you would be hard-pressed to find a slugger like Andruw with as low of a BA and OBP that he has. From a historical standpoint, players like Sosa and Biggio would be locks but we all know that is far from the case...

[A-Tex Devil]

Hall of Famers are often judged by how they stacked up with their peers and in this day and age, I think you would be hard-pressed to find a slugger like Andruw with as low of a BA and OBP that he has. From a historical standpoint, players like Sosa and Biggio would be locks but we all know that is far from the case...

Sorry to thread hijack, but Biggio is an absolute lock. And Sosa would be as well barring steroids questions. Historical, relative, any way you slice it.

Sosa has 600 home runs and a stretch of seasons topped only by Barry Bonds. Plus his steroid "taint" is much less than the McGwire, Bonds, Giambi, Palmeiro crowd simply because there has been nothing but speculation with Sosa, while there has been at least circumstantial, if not more, with everyone else.

Biggio will be 5th (FIFTH!!) all time in doubles when all is said and done and the leading right handed doubles hitter in history. Not to mention 3,000 hits and all star at two non-pitcher positions that are about as polar opposite as it gets.

All that said -- Andruw Jones can't tail off at this point. Assuming he puts in 4 or 5 good seasons, though, and gets to 600 career home runs, I don't think you can keep him out, .260 average notwithstanding.

[Channing]

what I was saying is that Andruw doesnt stack up, offensively, to the offensive superstars of today. You can compare him to the all time greats all you want - I believe, although I have no statistical proof, that the last 15 years or so of baseball have seen offensive numbers that have never been seen in the history of baseball (the so called steroids era). Hence, comparing Andruws home run totals over a two year period to mantles is absurd. I am sorry, you can give me as much analysis as you want - i refuse to believe that a hitter who has broken 275 3 times in his 11 year career, who has 5 years in the .260s and 2 years worse than that, can be considered one of the best hitters in baseball.

Richie Sexon - also an 11 year career, career BA .266, career OPS of .868.
Cecil Fielder - careeer .255 BA, career OPS .827
Carlos Delgado - career .280 BA, career OPS .937
Andruw Jones - career BA .264, career OPS .843
Moises Alou - career BA .301, career OPS .883
Adam Dunn - career BA .248, career OPS .895

Here are some numbers from other hitters. It seems Andruw is most similar to Richie Sexon. A good power hitter, a quality bat on the team, but not nearly one of the all time greats. I dont care where Andruw is at this point of his career compared to other hitters, I care about what he has done, and how that compares to the body of work of other hitters in his era. I dont want to compare him to Hank Greenberg or Al Kaline or Pete Rose - they played in different eras. These numbers seem to flush out my theory - Andruw has been a good hitter - sporadic all star level when he is having a good power year - and an excellent fielder his entire career. Not, IMO, superstar, but very good player.

[jma4life]

I agree that compared top players of this era, AJ is a good, not great hitter. Hes had a few unbelievable seasons and has been a very good hitter, but he is not even one of the best 10-15 hitters right now.

That said, his defense at the CF positiion has been historically amazing. Mays himself says that Jones is the only one he considers in his league defensively. Glavine and Maddux used to state that they believed that AJ saved about one run per game defensively compared to avg centerfielders. So if you look at the total AJ package, his amazing defense combined with his solid hitting makes a sure thing HOFer in my opinion.

[Dukerati]

Sorry to thread hijack, but Biggio is an absolute lock. And Sosa would be as well barring steroids questions. Historical, relative, any way you slice it.

Sosa has 600 home runs and a stretch of seasons topped only by Barry Bonds. Plus his steroid "taint" is much less than the McGwire, Bonds, Giambi, Palmeiro crowd simply because there has been nothing but speculation with Sosa, while there has been at least circumstantial, if not more, with everyone else.

Biggio will be 5th (FIFTH!!) all time in doubles when all is said and done and the leading right handed doubles hitter in history. Not to mention 3,000 hits and all star at two non-pitcher positions that are about as polar opposite as it gets.

All that said -- Andruw Jones can't tail off at this point. Assuming he puts in 4 or 5 good seasons, though, and gets to 600 career home runs, I don't think you can keep him out, .260 average notwithstanding.

I thought so too but I was listening to Mike and Mike the other day and Steve Phillips came on and said he wasn't sure about either one. Buster Olney then came on and pretty much said the same thing. ESPN baseball personalities are certainly not the bible for me but I do generally respect their opinions (except Kruk's) and if they have doubts, I don't think you can classify either as "locks".

[Mal]

I thought so too but I was listening to Mike and Mike the other day and Steve Phillips came on and said he wasn't sure about either one. Buster Olney then came on and pretty much said the same thing. ESPN baseball personalities are certainly not the bible for me but I do generally respect their opinions (except Kruk's) and if they have doubts, I don't think you can classify either as "locks".

What?!? This is why talk radio is so profoundly damaging to society. :^)

Seriously, though, I don't give any credence to anything Phillips says, but it's interesting that Olney would say that. If Tim Kurkjian, Peter Gammons, or Jayson Stark said something to the same effect, then I'd be listening. But I have great doubt that any of them would question Sosa unless it were on strictly moral grounds based on steroid suspicion.

The numbers that guy put up for almost a ten year stretch were outrageous. He had 36 or more homers and over 100 RBI for 9 consecutive seasons. In one four year stretch he hit 243 homeruns and knocked in just shy of 600 runs! Combine that with over 600 career homers (600 being the new 500), and the fact that he was arguably the game's biggest ambassador for a good while, and there's no way on this earth he's not a mortal lock. Subject only to the whimsy of voters on the steroid-era issues, of course. Before Bonds found the clear and the cream (which could arguably be causally attributed to Sosa and McGwire's domination of the spotlight in '98), Sosa was the most feared slugger in the game.

Biggio, I can at least see the argument. I guess you could claim he's a prototypical "accumulator" instead of a guy who struck fear into opposing pitchers' hearts (lifetime .282/.365/.435, never hit 30 homers or collected 100 RBI in a season), but when you compare him to other catchers converted to second basemen converted to center fielders, he's in a class by himself. Just looking at him as a second basemen, he's clearly one of the best of all time. Even Sullen Joe Morgan hit just .271 career, never had 30 homers and only twice topped the 90 RBI plateau himself, though he stole a ton of bases and walked a lot more. Unless you're expecting Biggio's stats to be comparable to those of a left fielder, there's no way he shouldn't be in. Especially when you factor in era - his most important numbers are not especially impacted by the steroid/juiced ball effects of the last 15 years. I think the only question left regarding Biggio and the Hall of Fame is whether Morgan and Ryne Sandberg go fisticuffs at the induction ceremony.

[hc5duke]

gone!

[throatybeard]

So JS called AJ personally, instead of Boras. Respect.

We all saw it coming. Love Andruw, Godspeed. Let's buy some pitching if there is any on the market. I'm not sure there is. Let's wait till 2008 for pitching?

Gotta pay Tex somehow.

[Bluedawg]

I'm sorry- I don't know how anyone can be considered a superstar, or even a star, and be hitting under 200 this late in the season (unless there is some injury we dont know about). Am I being too hard on the guy? I know he has a good body of work, but he is an automatic out, and is dragging down the middle of the braves lineup - which does not really strike fear into opponents at the best of times. I am sure he is going to ask for 15 mil or so a year this offseason, and I HOPE the Braves dont give it to him.

Yea his defense is great, but outside of a short stretch last year for a few months when he was really awesome offensively, i have always viewed him as more of a compiler than an actual superstar. He hit a lot of homeruns, but I dont remember him being very clutch or coming up with big hits.

Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest after three straight shutouts.

Being a life long braves fan [I'm 50], I'd rather have him back.

[EarlJam]

I don't know if it's the right move or the wrong move right now. All I know is that it kind of bums me out. Long career in Atlanta and he wanted to stay. We'll miss you Druw!

-EarlJam

[Channing]

I don't know if it's the right move or the wrong move right now. All I know is that it kind of bums me out. Long career in Atlanta and he wanted to stay. We'll miss you Druw!

-EarlJam

he obviously didnt want to stay too bad. He asked for a number WAY out of wack.

If he wanted to stay he wouldnt have let Boras ask for mid-20 millions, and at that price, I rather wouldnt have him back.

At a reasonable price, I rather would