Realistic Expectations

[Wander]

We can expect bumps along the way - it's the nature of a young team.

Are you sure this is actually true? Last year we had an old team, and had more "bumps" at this point in the season. This year, Ohio State is young, and has had less "bumps."

I've never really been completely convinced of many of the commonly held beliefs about youth in basketball.

[Chris Randolph]

Realistic expectations must be made for coaches too. Its easy to forget that coach K and staff make poor decisions and have a bad game too every once in awhile. It is human nature to mess up. Sure you would have love to seen a more soft (less pressure) defense on the perimeter but Coach K must have thought differently. Maybe he will begin to implement that style after reviewing this game.

[Chris Randolph]

Are you sure this is actually true? Last year we had an old team, and had more "bumps" at this point in the season. This year, Ohio State is young, and has had less "bumps."

I've never really been completely convinced of many of the commonly held beliefs about youth in basketball.

Ohio St isn't that young. Sullinger of course but Lighty, Diebler, Lauderdale and Buford are JR's and SR's. If you look at past national champions over the last decade, experience is a common theme.

[OldSchool]

Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation. It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

I second this. I put today's loss down to poor strategy, not lack of effort or better players on the opposing team.

I'll take our team's chances at the NC over any other team. I love the way Nolan has taken his game to an elite level, and I like the way Ryan is emerging as an additional shooter and a shot-blocker and an all-around smart ball-player.

What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

[Oriole Way]

I second this. I put today's loss down to poor strategy, not lack of effort or better players on the opposing team.

I'll take our team's chances at the NC over any other team. I love the way Nolan has taken his game to an elite level, and I like the way Ryan is emerging as an additional shooter and a shot-blocker and an all-around smart ball-player.

What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

Completely agree. Miles and Mason, especially Mason, are the keys to this team, and if they can somehow make a Zoubek-esque improvement (and it doesn't even need to be that drastic, since Mason is already rebounding with authority) from now until the end of the season, then we have a very good chance to win it all.

If Kyrie Irving comes back before the tournament, and he's 100%, then it doesn't matter if Miles and Mason improve. With a healthy Irving, we will likely win it all again regardless of any development from the Plumless. Unfortunately, I don't think it's likely that he comes back, or that he gets back to 100%. But the slim chance that he does makes this team's chances even better, and they are good to begin with.

[Namtilal]

We don't have enough good on ball defenders to not provide help. That's what killed us in the paint today. SJU got at least 8 open layups due to an exhausted help D. People got beat and help eventually ran out.

We can dominate lesser athletes with our pressure up top. The Johnnies showed today that a team that can match our athleticism can shred our half-court pressure. There was no way the bigs could defend against all that penetration. Against a team like SJU, we would have to pack it in more and let them have better shots from outside, along with forcing fewer turnovers, in order to prevent all those wide-open layups.

We aren't good enough to force a team like St. John's to play the way we want to right now. Instead, we have to pick our poison and let them have more room up top and fewer easy buckets inside. In time, we may improve; we will, however, meet a team like St. John's in the tourney, and we have to know our abilities in order to contain them.

Question: Do we have to be a pressuring, ball-hawking team that scores off turnovers to win the title? I don't think so. I do know, however, that if we are not good enough to stop a quick team with that D, we will not win it all by trying.

[Chris Randolph]

What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

We did not have this aspect last year but won the title but we did have 3 scorers who got open off of the bigs screens and offensive rebounding (which if Mason and Miles could do those things for us, I like our chances even more, they are too inconsistent). Mason and Miles style of play is getting up and down the floor and finishing at the rim (usually with Kyrie or Nolan assisting). They are not back to the basket players, which to me is obvious if you've seen them try to back guys down or execute post moves.

[dukeballer2294]

we are patronizing last years team a little too much. truth of the matter is that last years team came together down the stretch and played well enough to put together 6 games to win the tournament. last year at this time lance and z were ridiculed for their underproduction and lack of inside presence. both picked it up down the stretch and that is what we can hope for with our bigs. we are talented enough to win any game and we should be grateful. however, in any sport a season wears on you and road games where you are not 100% can be tough. they got the better of us today but on a neutral court 2 months from now who knows what would happen. we are a title contender and top team for a reason w/ or w/o kyrie and itll come down to whether or not we get hot towards the end of the season.

[CDu]

we are patronizing last years team a little too much. truth of the matter is that last years team came together down the stretch and played well enough to put together 6 games to win the tournament. last year at this time lance and z were ridiculed for their underproduction and lack of inside presence. both picked it up down the stretch and that is what we can hope for with our bigs. we are talented enough to win any game and we should be grateful. however, in any sport a season wears on you and road games where you are not 100% can be tough. they got the better of us today but on a neutral court 2 months from now who knows what would happen. we are a title contender and top team for a reason w/ or w/o kyrie and itll come down to whether or not we get hot towards the end of the season.

Agreed. Last year's team wasn't a juggernaut for most of the season. Things came together down the stretch and the results turned out great. The same could happen this year, but that shouldn't just be assumed. It was a remarkable (and somewhat sudden) change that resulted in last year's team's emergence.

[Wander]

Ohio St isn't that young. Sullinger of course but Lighty, Diebler, Lauderdale and Buford are JR's and SR's. If you look at past national champions over the last decade, experience is a common theme.

Well, OSU plays a 7 man rotation, and the other three guys are all freshmen. If you go by the kenpom stats, OSU is just barely less experienced than we are this year. And Syracuse and Florida both won national championships with young teams.

Of course, players do tend to get better with experience, I just think it's a metric that is used incorrectly in evaluating teams.

BTW, St John's is actually a perfect example - they're loaded with seniors, but are wildly inconsistent.

[weezie]

And osu barely, barely squeeeeeked by northwestern last night.

Nobody has it all figured out yet. Except for the brainiacs over on insidecarholeina.

[OldSchool]

We did not have this aspect last year but won the title but we did have 3 scorers who got open off of the bigs screens and offensive rebounding (which if Mason and Miles could do those things for us, I like our chances even more, they are too inconsistent). Mason and Miles style of play is getting up and down the floor and finishing at the rim (usually with Kyrie or Nolan assisting). They are not back to the basket players, which to me is obvious if you've seen them try to back guys down or execute post moves.

Well, okay but Z developed into a truly remarkable offensive rebounder, and the net efficiency in the additional offensive boards combined with the resulting kick-outs for threes from high percentage shooters offset the lack of low post offense from Z. Statistically, Z's offensive rebounding last season, especially in the last half of the season was off-the-charts in college basketball.

However, unlike Z (not as athletic) or Lance (undersized for a low post player), I think both Mason and Miles have the athletic potential to develop successful low post scoring moves. Indeed, Mason has the athletic ability to face up his defender and take him off the dribble. We have seen flashes with Mason of some really talented moves around the rim.

With Miles, who is now a junior, I suspect it may be a matter of confidence. It may start clicking with him at some point, hopefully during the course of this season.

I think we will need more of a scoring threat from them than just finishing at the rim in transition or with a lob if we are going to be a sufficiently resilient team to go deep in the tournament, and I expect to see some upcoming games in which they contribute more on the offensive end.

[OldPhiKap]

I just wish we had a coach who knew how to address shortcomings and come up with plans to overcome weaknesses. Maybe even someone who could instill a little motivation at the right time.

That would be nice.

My expectation is that we will be competitive come tourney time, and have as good a chance as any top two or three seed. Maybe a smidge better than some.

I still think we'll be there.

[CDu]

Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation.

Sorry, but it's really not. Winning the title is not a reasonable expectation for any team, ever. The odds are always in favor of the field over any particular team, and it's usually not close. A championship is a realistic goal, but not a realistic expectation.

It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

And this sentence specifically contradicts your first sentence. You're acknowledging that it's more likely that we won't win the title than that we will. Thus, it's not a reasonable expectation for us to win the title.

I don't necessarily have a problem with arguing that our chances are as good or better than any single other team. But I'd argue that our chances of winning the title are no higher than 20-25%, and that may be optimistic. Thus, it's not a reasonable expectation.

[MulletMan]

Here's my realistic expectation... for this Duke team to be better in the third week of March through the second week in April than it is in November, December, or the last week in January.

Why do we even have a "Realistic" expectations thread on this board? I mean really. The night after the National Title game last year, people on this board were talking about a repeat like it was a lock... even though there have been two repeat champions in the NCAA tournament in the last 50 years!

People were talking about going undefeated. UNDEFEATED! The absurdity of that thought is so ridiculous that I couldn't even wrap my head around it! Undefeated?! C'mon.

5 top 10 teams lost this weekend, the No1 and No2 teams won by a COMBINED 4 points, and yet Duke losing is a death knell, and we'll ONLY get to the Sweet 16. Guess what? Only 8 teams make it past the Sweet 16 round. The board is crapping itself because we lost to a St. John's team that has beaten Notre Dame and Georgetown... who aren't chopped liver exactly. Does it seem, that maybe there's a bit of parity in college basketball?

Realistic expectations. Psh. Right.

[Wander]

Here's my realistic expectation... for this Duke team to be better in the third week of March through the second week in April than it is in November, December, or the last week in January.

Why do we even have a "Realistic" expectations thread on this board? I mean really. The night after the National Title game last year, people on this board were talking about a repeat like it was a lock... even though there have been two repeat champions in the NCAA tournament in the last 50 years!

People were talking about going undefeated. UNDEFEATED! The absurdity of that thought is so ridiculous that I couldn't even wrap my head around it! Undefeated?! C'mon.

5 top 10 teams lost this weekend, the No1 and No2 teams won by a COMBINED 4 points, and yet Duke losing is a death knell, and we'll ONLY get to the Sweet 16. Guess what? Only 8 teams make it past the Sweet 16 round. The board is crapping itself because we lost to a St. John's team that has beaten Notre Dame and Georgetown... who aren't chopped liver exactly. Does it seem, that maybe there's a bit of parity in college basketball?

Realistic expectations. Psh. Right.

There's a lot of unfair stuff here. First of all, UCLA, Duke, and Florida have all had teams to repeat as champions in the past 50 years. Secondly, there are tons of examples of teams - including recent Duke teams - that are not better in March than they are in January. And most importantly, a lot of the expectations/hopes for this team were made before our best player was injured, maybe for the season.

You're right that the loss today isn't the end of the world, but it's also something to be legitimately concerned about - just like Georgetown was last year.

[Starter]

I do think it's reasonable to think that this team as currently assembled will not win a title. I keep hearing about the team that won last season after the Georgetown debacle, but Zoubek's Valentine's Day weekend transformation gave them a dominant element they simply didn't have before.

The good news is that a potential Irving return could be this year's equivalent to that element. His remarkable level of talent covers up for a lot -- it makes the Plumlees viable offensive players, for one thing. And I still haven't heard anything that rules out a return.

But if that doesn't happen, I think we have to be realistic. I don't see anyone else on this team making a Zoubek leap. Kyrie returning, if that were to happen, would of course qualify in terms of our point guard play being dramatically enhanced, the same way Zoubek enhanced our center position.

[Newton_14]

Here's my realistic expectation... for this Duke team to be better in the third week of March through the second week in April than it is in November, December, or the last week in January.

Why do we even have a "Realistic" expectations thread on this board? I mean really. The night after the National Title game last year, people on this board were talking about a repeat like it was a lock... even though there have been two repeat champions in the NCAA tournament in the last 50 years!

People were talking about going undefeated. UNDEFEATED! The absurdity of that thought is so ridiculous that I couldn't even wrap my head around it! Undefeated?! C'mon.

5 top 10 teams lost this weekend, the No1 and No2 teams won by a COMBINED 4 points, and yet Duke losing is a death knell, and we'll ONLY get to the Sweet 16. Guess what? Only 8 teams make it past the Sweet 16 round. The board is crapping itself because we lost to a St. John's team that has beaten Notre Dame and Georgetown... who aren't chopped liver exactly. Does it seem, that maybe there's a bit of parity in college basketball?

Realistic expectations. Psh. Right.

Agree 100%. We were a Top 5 team before the game and a Top 5 team now. We lost to a good team that played at a very high level. We came out flat and had a off day as a team. St Johns played an outstanding game today. Tip your hat to them.

In the college game today, if you are playing a Top 60 team, and they play at their best and you have an off day, expect to get soundly beaten. That is just the way it is. We could play them at Cameron Indoor tomorrow, and run them out of the gym if we played at a high level and they were off.

As for the ridiculous pre-season threads, the most ludicrous to me was the thread to discuss "Where this year's team would rank in Duke History". That one was just bizarre to me.

This is a developing team, down a man, but still plenty of talent. A Top 5 team for sure, but not some juggernaut that is going to run every team out of the gym, nor win when we play as poorly as we did today.

Next Play. Bring on Maryland.

[hurley1]

Trust me, I don't have blue colored glasses. I am harsher on the team and Coach K than a vast majority of this board when I feel they deserve criticism.

The main reason your argument isn't sound is that last season's national champion lost a game against NC State, which was worse than this St. John's team. The fact that this Duke team is so similar to last season's Duke team is what allows me to accurately dispute the original poster's assertion that "title contenders simply don't lose to the likes to St. John's."

Pittsburgh is playing great basketball, but they are going to lose a few games, probably in a short span, because they play in the Big East. They are also overachieving relative to their talent. They are to be commended, but they are not immune to a slump. It will happen, and likely soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Villanova, and they would still have tough games against Louisville, West Virginia again, and Villanova again. And just because they haven't lost to any mediocre teams yet doesn't mean that they won't, or that they aren't susceptible to it.

UConn is radically dependent on one player, Kemba Walker. He could very well be the best player in the country, but when he doesn't play well, they will lose more often than not. They have a ton more question marks than Duke does, and I don't really consider them a title contender. Even more so with Texas, especially since Rick Barnes is one of the worst tournament and in-game coaches in the country of all the big time programs.

I really think Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke have by far the best chance of winning it all, and have the most talent. Pittsburgh may be a step behind in terms of being a title contender given their play up until this point, but I'm not sold on them yet, especially in a tournament setting where they won't be able to capitalize on their home court advantage (same could be said for Duke, but Duke is more talented).

iF dUKE IS A TITLE CONTENDER, IS ST. JOHNS NOT A TITLE CONTENDER ???....COULD DUKE BEAT THEM THE 2ND GO ROUND ??????

[uh_no]

if duke is a title contender, is st. Johns not a title contender ???....could duke beat them the 2nd go round ??????

no doubt in my mind they would be ready on go around 2 against any team