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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    The Republic of Texas

    Realistic Expectations

    National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT....

    We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

    And yes, I know Georgetown put a good thumping on us last year but we had 5 very experienced players and amazing chemistry within that team that Coach K himself said was the best he'd ever been around.
    Last edited by Chris Randolph; 01-30-2011 at 03:35 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT....

    We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.
    100% spot on

    You can see it since kyrie has been out...a huge amount of our points come fromm 3's and transition buckets...and due to this we see huge stretches of games where we don't score...take BC last week for a perfect example...and it was only on 3's and transition buckets that we came back...

    I personally think duke's rating and win total are artificially inflated by a weak schedule...

    that said, it was like a broken record how st. johns had wide open looks every time down the floor EVERY TIME, this team can't score like it did with kyrie around, and it can't play defense like last year's team did...

    people are going to come here and rip us for being all doom and gloom, but we've seen spurts of it where duke can't score...it happens every game...and today duke faced a good big east team (i don't think you can question the strength of the big east after seeing how well st johns played today...an aside but w/e) and put together a complete half of being unable to score...that coupled with our inability to play defense against a quick team which could penetrate at will put us so far down that we couldn't recover....

    conclusion: we need kyrie irving to be able to lead us so that we can still put points on the board even when we can't get out and run and we can't hit 3's
    1200. DDMF.

  3. #3
    They outplayed us all over the court, and we didn't know how to react. However, it was one game. If you think this is the team Coach K will have on the court in March, and you think that we won't adapt and learn from this thrashing, then you haven't been paying enough attention to Duke Basketball the last 30 years.

    It's wasn't definite we would win the title with Kyrie, and it's certainly way less likely now. However, as Coach K says about terrible defeats: here's to not forgetting.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Namtilal View Post
    They outplayed us all over the court, and we didn't know how to react. However, it was one game. If you think this is the team Coach K will have on the court in March, and you think that we won't adapt and learn from this thrashing, then you haven't been paying enough attention to Duke Basketball the last 30 years.

    It's wasn't definite we would win the title with Kyrie, and it's certainly way less likely now. However, as Coach K says about terrible defeats: here's to not forgetting.
    I paid attention to duke 2 years ago when we got thrashed by clemson...then got thrashed by villanova....

    obviously coach K will make changes...but someone has to turn into the 3rd piece of the triforce if we can expect to go anywhere come march
    1200. DDMF.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT....

    We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

    And yes, I know Georgetown put a good thumping on us last year but we had 5 very experienced players and amazing chemistry within that team that Coach K himself said was the best he'd ever been around.
    Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation. It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

    I think you overestimate how good the rest of the top teams in the country are. Ohio State is best, most balanced team, but they only go 7 deep and they heavily rely on a freshman. If they experience any foul trouble in any big games, which is more than likely, especially if coaches game plan around stopping and frustrating Sullinger, they can easily be beaten.

    You say that a potential title team like Duke should never lose like they did against St. Johns. Well, I submit that a team like Ohio State should never beat Northwestern by just 1 point, but that's what they did.

    Kansas is the other team which concerns me, but I think they are a worse team with Josh Selby, who is a highly inefficient player and will lose Kansas more games than win them against elite competition.

    I think Duke's role players - Dawkins, Curry, the Piumlees, Kelly, Thornton - are much more dynamic and talented than last season's bench and role players, and if Duke wins it all again without Irving, that group will be a big reason why.

    Duke could certainly lose in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight, but the bottom line is that they are still one of the best teams in the country. They have more than enough talent to win it all - even without Kyrie.

  6. #6
    Realistic expectations are that you will not win every game during the season, nor will you play up to 100% of your ability every game.

    Nor will you satisfy every Duke fan every game despite their knowing the realistic expectations stated in the sentence above.
    ~rthomas

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.
    I think we have some duke blue colored glasses there...duke just got blown out by a middle of the pack Big east team (well that is saying something given its the big east...but anyway)

    lets take a look at the losses of the other title contenders

    OSU: no losses
    PItt: lost to top 25 teams by <10 points (given tenn is not ranked, but they're a bit of an enigma this year
    DUke: nc
    uconn: 3 losses to top 20 teams...beaten handily by pitt, and close losses to ND and UL
    Kansas: fell apart against a top notch texas team
    texas: BAD loss USC...close losses to Pitt and Uconn

    St Johns won going away vs ND, so we can say that ND has a similar loss, but how many people are penning ND as huge title contenders ATM?
    1200. DDMF.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I think we have some duke blue colored glasses there...duke just got blown out by a middle of the pack Big east team (well that is saying something given its the big east...but anyway)

    lets take a look at the losses of the other title contenders

    OSU: no losses
    PItt: lost to top 25 teams by <10 points (given tenn is not ranked, but they're a bit of an enigma this year
    DUke: nc
    uconn: 3 losses to top 20 teams...beaten handily by pitt, and close losses to ND and UL
    Kansas: fell apart against a top notch texas team
    texas: BAD loss USC...close losses to Pitt and Uconn

    St Johns won going away vs ND, so we can say that ND has a similar loss, but how many people are penning ND as huge title contenders ATM?
    Trust me, I don't have blue colored glasses. I am harsher on the team and Coach K than a vast majority of this board when I feel they deserve criticism.

    The main reason your argument isn't sound is that last season's national champion lost a game against NC State, which was worse than this St. John's team. The fact that this Duke team is so similar to last season's Duke team is what allows me to accurately dispute the original poster's assertion that "title contenders simply don't lose to the likes to St. John's."

    Pittsburgh is playing great basketball, but they are going to lose a few games, probably in a short span, because they play in the Big East. They are also overachieving relative to their talent. They are to be commended, but they are not immune to a slump. It will happen, and likely soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Villanova, and they would still have tough games against Louisville, West Virginia again, and Villanova again. And just because they haven't lost to any mediocre teams yet doesn't mean that they won't, or that they aren't susceptible to it.

    UConn is radically dependent on one player, Kemba Walker. He could very well be the best player in the country, but when he doesn't play well, they will lose more often than not. They have a ton more question marks than Duke does, and I don't really consider them a title contender. Even more so with Texas, especially since Rick Barnes is one of the worst tournament and in-game coaches in the country of all the big time programs.

    I really think Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke have by far the best chance of winning it all, and have the most talent. Pittsburgh may be a step behind in terms of being a title contender given their play up until this point, but I'm not sold on them yet, especially in a tournament setting where they won't be able to capitalize on their home court advantage (same could be said for Duke, but Duke is more talented).

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    Trust me, I don't have blue colored glasses. I am harsher on the team and Coach K than a vast majority of this board when I feel they deserve criticism.

    The main reason your argument isn't sound is that last season's national champion lost a game against NC State, which was worse than this St. John's team. The fact that this Duke team is so similar to last season's Duke team is what allows me to accurately dispute the original poster's assertion that "title contenders simply don't lose to the likes to St. John's."

    Pittsburgh is playing great basketball, but they are going to lose a few games, probably in a short span, because they play in the Big East. They are also overachieving relative to their talent. They are to be commended, but they are not immune to a slump. It will happen, and likely soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Villanova, and they would still have tough games against Louisville, West Virginia again, and Villanova again. And just because they haven't lost to any mediocre teams yet doesn't mean that they won't, or that they aren't susceptible to it.

    UConn is radically dependent on one player, Kemba Walker. He could very well be the best player in the country, but when he doesn't play well, they will lose more often than not. They have a ton more question marks than Duke does, and I don't really consider them a title contender. Even more so with Texas, especially since Rick Barnes is one of the worst tournament and in-game coaches in the country of all the big time programs.

    I really think Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke have by far the best chance of winning it all, and have the most talent. Pittsburgh may be a step behind in terms of being a title contender given their play up until this point, but I'm not sold on them yet, especially in a tournament setting where they won't be able to capitalize on their home court advantage (same could be said for Duke, but Duke is more talented).
    iF dUKE IS A TITLE CONTENDER, IS ST. JOHNS NOT A TITLE CONTENDER ???....COULD DUKE BEAT THEM THE 2ND GO ROUND ??????

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by hurley1 View Post
    if duke is a title contender, is st. Johns not a title contender ???....could duke beat them the 2nd go round ??????
    no doubt in my mind they would be ready on go around 2 against any team
    1200. DDMF.

  11. #11
    To me, what matters is if Duke in the top four at the end of the season and Duke is playing solid, consistent basketball at the end of the season. If getting wrecked by St. John's is a learning experience that leads to those two goals, then I think a realistic expectation is going deep into the tournament and hopefully winning the championship.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Nashville, TN

    My Realistic Expectation

    Here is mine. Duke will lose again this year, maybe Wednesday at Maryland, maybe at Chapel Hill or some other game in the regular season. And when they do lose I realistically expect to read a bunch of chicken little posts after each loss.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Meeting with Marie Laveau
    Quote Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil View Post
    Here is mine. Duke will lose again this year, maybe Wednesday at Maryland, maybe at Chapel Hill or some other game in the regular season. And when they do lose I realistically expect to read a bunch of chicken little posts after each loss.
    You're on the money. There is often a very think line between fantasy and reality.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    You say that a potential title team like Duke should never lose like they did against St. Johns. Well, I submit that a team like Ohio State should never beat Northwestern by just 1 point, but that's what they did.

    I think Duke's role players - Dawkins, Curry, the Piumlees, Kelly, Thornton - are much more dynamic and talented than last season's bench and role players, and if Duke wins it all again without Irving, that group will be a big reason why.
    Ohio St plays bad on the road and wins by 1. We play bad on the road and lose by 15. They found a way to win and we found a way to look pretty bad. Common theme we both played bad, uncommon theme is the result when playing bad. But I will say St Johns is better than NWestern but you get my point.

    Dawkins, Curry and Plumlee are more talented role players and are at their best in 2 situations: At home and with Kyrie in the lineup (neither of which looks to take place in the tourney). Kyrie gets those guys wide open looks against any opponent.
    Last edited by throatybeard; 01-31-2011 at 09:42 PM. Reason: close tags

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation. It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.
    I second this. I put today's loss down to poor strategy, not lack of effort or better players on the opposing team.

    I'll take our team's chances at the NC over any other team. I love the way Nolan has taken his game to an elite level, and I like the way Ryan is emerging as an additional shooter and a shot-blocker and an all-around smart ball-player.

    What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

    Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool View Post
    I second this. I put today's loss down to poor strategy, not lack of effort or better players on the opposing team.

    I'll take our team's chances at the NC over any other team. I love the way Nolan has taken his game to an elite level, and I like the way Ryan is emerging as an additional shooter and a shot-blocker and an all-around smart ball-player.

    What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

    Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.
    Completely agree. Miles and Mason, especially Mason, are the keys to this team, and if they can somehow make a Zoubek-esque improvement (and it doesn't even need to be that drastic, since Mason is already rebounding with authority) from now until the end of the season, then we have a very good chance to win it all.

    If Kyrie Irving comes back before the tournament, and he's 100%, then it doesn't matter if Miles and Mason improve. With a healthy Irving, we will likely win it all again regardless of any development from the Plumless. Unfortunately, I don't think it's likely that he comes back, or that he gets back to 100%. But the slim chance that he does makes this team's chances even better, and they are good to begin with.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    The Republic of Texas
    Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool View Post
    What we need to see happen is one or both of Mason or Miles be able to consistently execute a low-post move against a set defender. The element of our half-court offense where we can make an entry pass to a big man on the low post, who successfully makes a drop step or other move against his defender, or attracts a double-team leaving one of our good 3-ball shooters wide open for a good undefended shot, is currently missing from our arsenal. We can't win every game with Nolan dribbling around a ball screen.

    Some more low post offense, becoming more aggressive in attacking a trapping press, and being more flexible in our defensive strategy (packing in it a bit when a team is consistently burning our overplay), and I very much like our chances.
    We did not have this aspect last year but won the title but we did have 3 scorers who got open off of the bigs screens and offensive rebounding (which if Mason and Miles could do those things for us, I like our chances even more, they are too inconsistent). Mason and Miles style of play is getting up and down the floor and finishing at the rim (usually with Kyrie or Nolan assisting). They are not back to the basket players, which to me is obvious if you've seen them try to back guys down or execute post moves.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Southern California
    we are patronizing last years team a little too much. truth of the matter is that last years team came together down the stretch and played well enough to put together 6 games to win the tournament. last year at this time lance and z were ridiculed for their underproduction and lack of inside presence. both picked it up down the stretch and that is what we can hope for with our bigs. we are talented enough to win any game and we should be grateful. however, in any sport a season wears on you and road games where you are not 100% can be tough. they got the better of us today but on a neutral court 2 months from now who knows what would happen. we are a title contender and top team for a reason w/ or w/o kyrie and itll come down to whether or not we get hot towards the end of the season.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukeballer2294 View Post
    we are patronizing last years team a little too much. truth of the matter is that last years team came together down the stretch and played well enough to put together 6 games to win the tournament. last year at this time lance and z were ridiculed for their underproduction and lack of inside presence. both picked it up down the stretch and that is what we can hope for with our bigs. we are talented enough to win any game and we should be grateful. however, in any sport a season wears on you and road games where you are not 100% can be tough. they got the better of us today but on a neutral court 2 months from now who knows what would happen. we are a title contender and top team for a reason w/ or w/o kyrie and itll come down to whether or not we get hot towards the end of the season.
    Agreed. Last year's team wasn't a juggernaut for most of the season. Things came together down the stretch and the results turned out great. The same could happen this year, but that shouldn't just be assumed. It was a remarkable (and somewhat sudden) change that resulted in last year's team's emergence.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    We did not have this aspect last year but won the title but we did have 3 scorers who got open off of the bigs screens and offensive rebounding (which if Mason and Miles could do those things for us, I like our chances even more, they are too inconsistent). Mason and Miles style of play is getting up and down the floor and finishing at the rim (usually with Kyrie or Nolan assisting). They are not back to the basket players, which to me is obvious if you've seen them try to back guys down or execute post moves.
    Well, okay but Z developed into a truly remarkable offensive rebounder, and the net efficiency in the additional offensive boards combined with the resulting kick-outs for threes from high percentage shooters offset the lack of low post offense from Z. Statistically, Z's offensive rebounding last season, especially in the last half of the season was off-the-charts in college basketball.

    However, unlike Z (not as athletic) or Lance (undersized for a low post player), I think both Mason and Miles have the athletic potential to develop successful low post scoring moves. Indeed, Mason has the athletic ability to face up his defender and take him off the dribble. We have seen flashes with Mason of some really talented moves around the rim.

    With Miles, who is now a junior, I suspect it may be a matter of confidence. It may start clicking with him at some point, hopefully during the course of this season.

    I think we will need more of a scoring threat from them than just finishing at the rim in transition or with a lob if we are going to be a sufficiently resilient team to go deep in the tournament, and I expect to see some upcoming games in which they contribute more on the offensive end.

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