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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    Realistic Expectations

    National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

    We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

    And yes, I know Georgetown put a good thumping on us last year but we had 5 very experienced players and amazing chemistry within that team that Coach K himself said was the best he'd ever been around.
    Last edited by Chris Randolph; 01-30-2011 at 03:35 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

    We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.
    100% spot on

    You can see it since kyrie has been out....a huge amount of our points come fromm 3's and transition buckets....and due to this we see huge stretches of games where we don't score....take BC last week for a perfect example....and it was only on 3's and transition buckets that we came back....

    I personally think duke's rating and win total are artificially inflated by a weak schedule....

    that said, it was like a broken record how st. johns had wide open looks every time down the floor EVERY TIME, this team can't score like it did with kyrie around, and it can't play defense like last year's team did....

    people are going to come here and rip us for being all doom and gloom, but we've seen spurts of it where duke can't score....it happens every game....and today duke faced a good big east team (i don't think you can question the strength of the big east after seeing how well st johns played today...an aside but w/e) and put together a complete half of being unable to score....that coupled with our inability to play defense against a quick team which could penetrate at will put us so far down that we couldn't recover.....

    conclusion: we need kyrie irving to be able to lead us so that we can still put points on the board even when we can't get out and run and we can't hit 3's
    usa

  3. #3
    They outplayed us all over the court, and we didn't know how to react. However, it was one game. If you think this is the team Coach K will have on the court in March, and you think that we won't adapt and learn from this thrashing, then you haven't been paying enough attention to Duke Basketball the last 30 years.

    It's wasn't definite we would win the title with Kyrie, and it's certainly way less likely now. However, as Coach K says about terrible defeats: here's to not forgetting.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    In your attic
    We got whooped in a similar situation by Georgetown last year. This team is better than last year. Last year's team would have lost this game by 30. Kyrie is not the answer, the Plumlees are. If Mason and Miles can get it going on a regular basis than we will go far. You can't shoot contested three's against bigger and more athletic defenders and expect to win. The establishment of an inside game will open up the perimeter.

    Both played horribly on both ends of the floor today. We are alarmingly unathletic again and it shows.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Namtilal View Post
    They outplayed us all over the court, and we didn't know how to react. However, it was one game. If you think this is the team Coach K will have on the court in March, and you think that we won't adapt and learn from this thrashing, then you haven't been paying enough attention to Duke Basketball the last 30 years.

    It's wasn't definite we would win the title with Kyrie, and it's certainly way less likely now. However, as Coach K says about terrible defeats: here's to not forgetting.
    I paid attention to duke 2 years ago when we got thrashed by clemson....then got thrashed by villanova.....

    obviously coach K will make changes....but someone has to turn into the 3rd piece of the triforce if we can expect to go anywhere come march
    usa

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    National Championship teams lose games (obvious by the 5 one year ago). But they don't play like the way Duke did against St. Johns. St Johns is a good club but they made us look very mediocre today. St Johns got whatever they wanted and we could not control the paint. They scored at will in the paint. We are very similar to 2008-09 in the sense we die by the 3 in some games and let people drive us. Everyone in the world including Carolina fans knows that with Kyrie we are ridiculous good, BUT.....

    We don't have Kyrie, probably won't. And that being said I could see a Sweet 16 loss, maybe Elite 8. If Kyle can pick it up like he did about this time a year ago, maybe him and Nolan can carry us to a Final 4. But without that 3rd guy, a national title probably isn't going to happen.

    And yes, I know Georgetown put a good thumping on us last year but we had 5 very experienced players and amazing chemistry within that team that Coach K himself said was the best he'd ever been around.
    Sorry, but Duke winning another title is a realistic expectation. It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.

    I think you overestimate how good the rest of the top teams in the country are. Ohio State is best, most balanced team, but they only go 7 deep and they heavily rely on a freshman. If they experience any foul trouble in any big games, which is more than likely, especially if coaches game plan around stopping and frustrating Sullinger, they can easily be beaten.

    You say that a potential title team like Duke should never lose like they did against St. Johns. Well, I submit that a team like Ohio State should never beat Northwestern by just 1 point, but that's what they did.

    Kansas is the other team which concerns me, but I think they are a worse team with Josh Selby, who is a highly inefficient player and will lose Kansas more games than win them against elite competition.

    I think Duke's role players - Dawkins, Curry, the Piumlees, Kelly, Thornton - are much more dynamic and talented than last season's bench and role players, and if Duke wins it all again without Irving, that group will be a big reason why.

    Duke could certainly lose in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight, but the bottom line is that they are still one of the best teams in the country. They have more than enough talent to win it all - even without Kyrie.

  7. #7
    Realistic expectations are that you will not win every game during the season, nor will you play up to 100% of your ability every game.

    Nor will you satisfy every Duke fan every game despite their knowing the realistic expectations stated in the sentence above.
    ~rthomas


  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by pamtar View Post
    We got whooped in a similar situation by Georgetown last year. This team is better than last year. Last year's team would have lost this game by 30. Kyrie is not the answer, the Plumlees are. If Mason and Miles can get it going on a regular basis than we will go far. You can't shoot contested three's against bigger and more athletic defenders and expect to win. The establishment of an inside game will open up the perimeter.

    Both played horribly on both ends of the floor today. We are alarmingly unathletic again and it shows.
    I am not sure that last year's team loses by 30. Zoubek and LT would have been taking charges in the paint and protecting the basket.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
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    The Republic of Texas
    Quote Originally Posted by pamtar View Post
    We got whooped in a similar situation by Georgetown last year. This team is better than last year. Last year's team would have lost this game by 30. Kyrie is not the answer, the Plumlees are. If Mason and Miles can get it going on a regular basis than we will go far. You can't shoot contested three's against bigger and more athletic defenders and expect to win. The establishment of an inside game will open up the perimeter.

    Both played horribly on both ends of the floor today. We are alarmingly unathletic again and it shows.
    Without Kyrie, I'd take last year's team over this year's team in a heartbeat. The experience of our starting 5, the maturity, leadership and will to win are very rare in teams and that team had it all. Not to mention a trifecta in Scheyer, Smith and Singler. Last year's team did play in a game like today (against Georgetown) and lost by a similar score. But I believe because of the description of last year's team a couple sentences ago and the brilliance of our coaches, we overcame it to win a title. We've still got the coaches but we are missing some of the other attributes that are key to winning a title when you are not as talented as many teams (much like last year).Kyrie is the answer. The Plumlees are at their best when Kyrie is playing. It is as simple as that. Sure, without Kyrie the Plums prodcution is huge (but so is everyone elses).

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by stillcrazie View Post
    I am not sure that last year's team loses by 30. Zoubek and LT would have been taking charges in the paint and protecting the basket.
    Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    It might not be likely, but Duke has as good a chance of winning it all, if not better, than any other team in the country.
    I think we have some duke blue colored glasses there......duke just got blown out by a middle of the pack Big east team (well that is saying something given its the big east...but anyway)

    lets take a look at the losses of the other title contenders

    OSU: no losses
    PItt: lost to top 25 teams by <10 points (given tenn is not ranked, but they're a bit of an enigma this year
    DUke: nc
    uconn: 3 losses to top 20 teams...beaten handily by pitt, and close losses to ND and UL
    Kansas: fell apart against a top notch texas team
    texas: BAD loss USC....close losses to Pitt and Uconn

    St Johns won going away vs ND, so we can say that ND has a similar loss, but how many people are penning ND as huge title contenders ATM?
    usa

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by stillcrazie View Post
    I am not sure that last year's team loses by 30. Zoubek and LT would have been taking charges in the paint and protecting the basket.
    Zoubek didn't assert himself until after the Georgetown and NC State fiascos, so it's doubtful he would have been on the floor enough to be a factor.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    Zoubek didn't assert himself until after the Georgetown and NC State fiascos, so it's doubtful he would have been on the floor enough to be a factor.
    I think he means post zoubek revelation....it'll take a similar revelation this year by one of our players, or a kyrie return, to win a championship
    usa

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Namtilal View Post
    Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.
    We don't have enough good on ball defenders to not provide help. That's what killed us in the paint today. SJU got at least 8 open layups due to an exhausted help D. People got beat and help eventually ran out.

    I do agree with the earlier point made about LT and Z taking charges . That's good analysis.

    Still, the sky's the limit with this team. We have a chance to win the NC just as much as the other top 10 teams do. Also, I trust K to have us more ready than any other coach out there.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    You say that a potential title team like Duke should never lose like they did against St. Johns. Well, I submit that a team like Ohio State should never beat Northwestern by just 1 point, but that's what they did.

    I think Duke's role players - Dawkins, Curry, the Piumlees, Kelly, Thornton - are much more dynamic and talented than last season's bench and role players, and if Duke wins it all again without Irving, that group will be a big reason why.
    Ohio St plays bad on the road and wins by 1. We play bad on the road and lose by 15. They found a way to win and we found a way to look pretty bad. Common theme we both played bad, uncommon theme is the result when playing bad. But I will say St Johns is better than NWestern but you get my point.

    Dawkins, Curry and Plumlee are more talented role players and are at their best in 2 situations: At home and with Kyrie in the lineup (neither of which looks to take place in the tourney). Kyrie gets those guys wide open looks against any opponent.
    Last edited by throatybeard; 01-31-2011 at 09:42 PM. Reason: close tags

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Namtilal View Post
    Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.
    YES! Totally agree. Last year we sagged off and emphasized great team defense. I think we should do it again, seemed to work ok a year ago I'd much rather a team shoot it from 20 ft than 3 ft

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Namtilal View Post
    Yes, but this defense is not working with this group of players. I expect us to tweak it to put less pressure on help defenders, and therefore give up fewer layups.
    I agree and am not sure why that adjustment wasn't made at the half. I still think that even before the revelation vs. MD last year, Zoubek and LT had more intensity on defense than our bigs do this year. It may just come down to experience, Zoubek and LT knew this was their last chance as seniors and were not going to back down for anyone. Hopefully the younger guys can get that. Soon.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington, DC area
    I've said it before. I imagine I'll say it again - we're young. We have three upperclassmen on the team (albeit two are fabulous). The rest of the team is young, and still learning. We can expect bumps along the way - it's the nature of a young team.

    -jk

  19. #19
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    Feb 2007
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    Towson, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I think we have some duke blue colored glasses there......duke just got blown out by a middle of the pack Big east team (well that is saying something given its the big east...but anyway)

    lets take a look at the losses of the other title contenders

    OSU: no losses
    PItt: lost to top 25 teams by <10 points (given tenn is not ranked, but they're a bit of an enigma this year
    DUke: nc
    uconn: 3 losses to top 20 teams...beaten handily by pitt, and close losses to ND and UL
    Kansas: fell apart against a top notch texas team
    texas: BAD loss USC....close losses to Pitt and Uconn

    St Johns won going away vs ND, so we can say that ND has a similar loss, but how many people are penning ND as huge title contenders ATM?
    Trust me, I don't have blue colored glasses. I am harsher on the team and Coach K than a vast majority of this board when I feel they deserve criticism.

    The main reason your argument isn't sound is that last season's national champion lost a game against NC State, which was worse than this St. John's team. The fact that this Duke team is so similar to last season's Duke team is what allows me to accurately dispute the original poster's assertion that "title contenders simply don't lose to the likes to St. John's."

    Pittsburgh is playing great basketball, but they are going to lose a few games, probably in a short span, because they play in the Big East. They are also overachieving relative to their talent. They are to be commended, but they are not immune to a slump. It will happen, and likely soon. I wouldn't be surprised if they lost back-to-back games against West Virginia and Villanova, and they would still have tough games against Louisville, West Virginia again, and Villanova again. And just because they haven't lost to any mediocre teams yet doesn't mean that they won't, or that they aren't susceptible to it.

    UConn is radically dependent on one player, Kemba Walker. He could very well be the best player in the country, but when he doesn't play well, they will lose more often than not. They have a ton more question marks than Duke does, and I don't really consider them a title contender. Even more so with Texas, especially since Rick Barnes is one of the worst tournament and in-game coaches in the country of all the big time programs.

    I really think Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke have by far the best chance of winning it all, and have the most talent. Pittsburgh may be a step behind in terms of being a title contender given their play up until this point, but I'm not sold on them yet, especially in a tournament setting where they won't be able to capitalize on their home court advantage (same could be said for Duke, but Duke is more talented).

  20. #20

    Coaching today

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris Randolph View Post
    Without Kyrie, I'd take last year's team over this year's team in a heartbeat. The experience of our starting 5, the maturity, leadership and will to win are very rare in teams and that team had it all. Not to mention a trifecta in Scheyer, Smith and Singler. Last year's team did play in a game like today (against Georgetown) and lost by a similar score. But I believe because of the description of last year's team a couple sentences ago and the brilliance of our coaches, we overcame it to win a title. We've still got the coaches but we are missing some of the other attributes that are key to winning a title when you are not as talented as many teams (much like last year).Kyrie is the answer. The Plumlees are at their best when Kyrie is playing. It is as simple as that. Sure, without Kyrie the Plums prodcution is huge (but so is everyone elses).
    I would find it difficult to typify the coaching today as brilliant.We continued to press with our defense even though it was getting us beat for easy buckets over and over again. With a size advantage but not a quickness advantage, it would seem an adjustment needed to be made but really never was. We scored a lot of points in the second half but only closed the gap by 6. We were just giving up too many eay buckets.

    Turnovers were also a problem for Duke. We didn't do a good job of breaking SJ down when they pressed us. Only a few times did we get a good look. I believe that we need to give more PT to another primary ball handler. Nolan is a great off the ball scorer but it is asking a lot of him also to be the primary ball handler. Seth has his issues against quick athletic guards and Tyler is inexperienced, but one of those two has to help Nolan more. I would vote for Tyler at this point.

    Our shooting was awful for much of the game, especially the three point. Not much we can do about that since our inside offense is weak. We just have to turn our shooter around. They have the capability but one or more of them have been off of late and Kyle is also not shooting as well as we had hoped. Hard to put shooting woes on the coaching staff. Just need a positive outlook and go on into the next game.

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