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  1. #1

    ACC Predictions now that NBA defectors known

    I started out with four tiers:

    UNC

    Duke -Ga T- NCS- Clemson

    UVA-BC-MD

    FSU-Miami-Wake-VA T

    Then I took ACC unbalanced schedule and home vs away into consideration, which did not change the tiers much.

    (helped GA T/VA T/DU/MD, hurt UNC/Miami/FSU), and somewhat broke the ties, while creating one at the top, if UNC cannot sweep Duke or NCS or Clemson or win @ GA T.

    I assumed the top two tiers win all their home games which is not likely. So there may not be as much a spread between the 5th and 6th place teams as shown below. Also unlikely UNC would lose all four road games against the second tier teams.

    This year Duke has its toughter games after UNC (2) and NCS (2) at home with GA T and Clemson and do not have to play either away. Duke does have UVA(2) and MD(2).

    1T. Duke (12-4) losses @ UNC, @ NCS, @MD, @UVA
    1T. UNC (12-4) losses @ NCS, @ GT @ CL and @ DU

    3. GA T (11-5) @ CL, @ UVA, @BC, @ DU, @ NCS (relatively favorable unbalanced ACC schedule)

    4T. NCS (10-6) @UNC, @ CL, @ DU, @ BC, @ MD, @ UVA
    4T. Clemson (10-6) @ GA T, @ UNC, @NCS, @ DU,@ MD, @ UVA

    6. MD (8-8) @DU, @ UVA, @ BC, @ GA T, @ UNC, @UM, @ WF, @ VA T

    7T. BC (7-9) @ MD, UNC (2), @UVA, @ CL, @ DU, @ UM, @ VA T, @ FSU
    7T. UVA (7-9) @ VA T, @ MD, @ BC, @DU, @ GA T, vs UNC, @FSU, @ UM, @ WF

    9. VA T (6-10) @UVA, @BC, GA T(2), @ MD, @ WF, @ CL, @ UNC, @ NCS, vs DU

    10. Wake (5-11) GA T(2), NCS (2), @ FSU, @MD, @ VA T, vs DU, @ BC, @ CL, @ UNC

    11T. Miami (4-12) @BC, @ FSU, CL(2), DU (2), GA T(2), vs UNC, @NCS, @ VA T, @ WF
    11T. FSU (4-12) @UM, CL(2), UNC(2), NCS(2), @ WF, vs DU, @ GA T, @MD, @UVA

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    Interesting, and a fair amount of work. Of note, except for UNC and DU, the teams end up in the same tiers as you started with.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2007

    Duke and UNC tied for 1st?

    I hate to be blunt, but that is absurd. A 10-6 record would be a great accomplishment for next years squad. 12-4 is an unhealthy expectation.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Vincetaylor View Post
    I hate to be blunt, but that is absurd. A 10-6 record would be a great accomplishment for next years squad. 12-4 is an unhealthy expectation.
    I agree with your comments, but point was even in a worst case scenario, UNC finishes first in ACC.

    The bigest problem with my four tier analysis is that is gives no measure of the degree of difference between tiers. The assumption was that each team wins home games in its own tier and below plus one tier higher.

    This translates to UNC at tier 1 losing all four road games against tier 2, which is not very likely, because of the strength differences between these tiers.

    Similarly tier 2 teams win home games against tier 1 (UNC), and tier 3 teams win home games against tier 2 teams, and tier 4 teams win home games against tier 3, where the differences across tiers may not be as great as it is between tiers 1 and 2.

    Likewise tier 3 and 4 teams never win a road game, and tier 2 teams only win road games against tier 4, and tier 1 team wins on the road only against tiers 3 and 4. Very possible for example for a VA Tech or FSU to win at home against Duke, and they finish with more than 4 losses.

    Teams also typically do not make quantum leaps up or down in wins from one season to the next. So if we average the results from last season and this projection,

    1. UNC 12-4 (Even though this still understates UNC wins, it shows the disparity between first and second)

    2. Duke 10-6 (think this may be high due to reliance on frosh and loss of McRoberts, but Singler, Smith and King are nice adds)

    3T. GA Tech 9-7 (bumped down 1 due to road problems to make totals 96-96)
    3T. UVA 9-7 (I think this may be too high)
    3T. MD 9-7 (I think this may be too high)
    3T. Clemson 9-7

    7T. BC 8-8 (I think this may be too high)
    7T. VA T 8-8 (I think this may be too high)
    7T. NCS 8-8 (I think this may be too low)

    10T. FSU 5-11
    10T. WF 5-11

    12. Miami 4-12

    This shows a decent number of ACC teams battling it out on the bubble. I personally think NCS and UNC will fare a little better and MD, UVA, VA T and BC a little worse.

    So if I add some subjectivity

    1. UNC 13-3

    2. Duke 10-6
    3T. GA T 9-7
    3T. NCS 9-7
    3T. Clemson 9-7

    6T. UVA 8-8
    6T. MD 8-8
    6T. BC 8-8

    9. VA T 7-9

    10T. FSU 5-11
    10T. WF 5-11
    10T. Miami 5-11

    A nice circular argument that brings us right back to the initial assumption about 4 tiers with only exception being VA T up one tier (instead of Duke up one)

    UNC

    Duke-GA T-NCS- Clemson

    UVA-MD-BC-VA T

    FSU-WF-Miami

    There are now 7 ACC teams at 8-8 give or take 1, with UNC clearly at the top and FSU-WF-Miami clearly not in the NCAA picture.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Central Arkansas

    Maryland better than .500

    Much as we may not want it, Maryland will be better than .500. I know they lost some seniors, Strawberry in particular, but that is a ridiculously athletic squad with good coaching. I see Maryland finishing 10-6, perhaps 11-5. Georgia Tech will struggle to see .500 on the other hand. And NCState is going to continue to get better, too. After UNC, I see the next tier being Duke, State and Maryland. Clemson, GTech and Virginia will compete for the other NCAA bids.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham

    Why we're in good shape ACC-wise

    Am I expecting Duke to win the ACC? Nope. Is it possible? Yes. Don't confuse this with me saying that we're better than UNC. Was UVA as good as UNC last year? Not at all, but both teams shared the ACC regular season title.

    I don't have any specific predictions, but it should be noted that the ACC lost a lot of talent from last year, and Duke is undoubtedly the least affected team out of all legitimate ACC contenders. Not that I'm guaranteeing we'll beat everyone else, but the only two teams I see Duke really struggling with are UNC and NC State. I say NC State poses problems due to their strong froncourt of McCauley and Costner, combined with the arrival of JJ Hickson. I say UNC because they're obviously the most talented team in the league. But after that, I really don't see too many threats.

    Maryland loses Strawberry, Ibekwe, and Mike Jones (38 ppg and 15 rpg combined). UVA loses JR Reynolds and Jason Cain, (25ppg and 12 rpg). GT loses Young and Crittendon (28 ppg, 9rpg), BC loses Dudley and Marshall (33 ppg, 12 rpg), and VT loses 3 starters in Dowdell, Gordon and Collins (35 ppg, 13 rpg). UNC loses Wright and Terry (25 ppg and 12 rpg). Clemson only loses Vernon Hamilton (13 ppg, 3rpg, 3apg), but he was by far Clemson's most productive player against us, averaging about 17.5 ppg in two games vs. Duke last year. Losing a gamebreaker like Al Thornton (20 ppg, 7 rpg), I just don't see FSU being able to hang with Duke like they have been, though I'll admit they've been giving Duke tough games all decade and they'll be much stronger down low than us.

    Compared to all of the above, Duke only loses 13ppg and 8rpg in McRoberts, which I'm confident can be replaced and then some between the 3 frosh. Also, remember that Duke had the hardest ACC schedule out of everyone, and by a substantial margin. I'll predict that won't be the case this year.

    My point is that this league is very, very young and/or inexperienced right now; even moreso than Duke. So this year, I expect to see a lot of the ACC experience what Duke had to last year...
    Last edited by Classof06; 06-22-2007 at 01:12 PM.

  7. #7
    I can't see G.T and Duke being in the same tier after they lose Young and Crittendon.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by kydevil View Post
    I can't see G.T and Duke being in the same tier after they lose Young and Crittendon.
    Like NC State, GA Tech success depends on whether they get any decent PG play. True, they did lose Crittenden, Young and Mario West, but they get Lewis Clinch back and Lawal is a nice add, but who distributes the ball is the question.

    GA Tech has a nice nucleus of great atheltes and some size in

    Clinch
    Morrow
    Smith
    Dickey
    Peacok
    Aminu
    Faye
    Bell
    Diaw
    Lawal

    and they also have a very favorable ACC unbalanced schedule playing Clemson, Wake, Miami, UVA and VA Tech twice. A couple teams GA Tech only plays once NCS and Duke where they may have lost anyway are road games, while games that may be winnable, they get at home in MD and FSU.

    People have questions about Clemson too and their unbalanced schedule is very tough with UNC, NC St, GA Tech, FSU, and Miami twice, and road games with Duke,MD and UVA, home with WF, VA T and BC.

    I really bunched these three with Duke out of Default since Duke has too many questions to be in the same tier (before ACC unbalanced schedule is taken into consideration) as UNC.

    I wanted to keep the analysis fairly simple and not have

    UNC

    Duke

    NCS-GA T- Clemson

    UVA-BC- MD

    VA T

    Wake-FSU-Miami

    Who else besides UNC and Duke is better than GA Tech? NC State is about the same with the same PG questions. Clemson gets Mays back but lost its primary PG though it has some alternatives.

    UVA did get Singletary back but will miss JR Reynolds and Jason Cain and do not have the favorable unbalanced ACC schedule that made them appear better than they really were last year.

    MD lost Strawberry, Ibekwe, Jones, their 7 footer Bowers and Parrish Brown; Gist, Vasquez, Hayes and Osby are not enough.

    VA Tech lost Coleman Collins, Dowdell, Gordon, Sailes, Krabbendan and a recruit reneged.

    BC lost its leaders Dudley and Marshall, plus the balance of Sean Williams' drug shortened season.

    FSU lost its leader Thornton, former JUCO Jerel Allen and possibly Mims not sure what they gained.

    So while people focus on Duke's post challenge and slow PG, cometition is much lighter than if they were having to play against last year's ACC teams and had to again deal with differences in ACC experience.
    Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 06-22-2007 at 04:26 PM.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by dukerev View Post
    Much as we may not want it, Maryland will be better than .500. I know they lost some seniors, Strawberry in particular, but that is a ridiculously athletic squad with good coaching. I see Maryland finishing 10-6, perhaps 11-5. Georgia Tech will struggle to see .500 on the other hand. And NCState is going to continue to get better, too. After UNC, I see the next tier being Duke, State and Maryland. Clemson, GTech and Virginia will compete for the other NCAA bids.
    Maryland lost a lot more than just Strawberry. Ibekwe and Jones were extremely solid players. Both of them scored in double digits and served a vital need for the team-- Jones as a great outside shooter (44% on 3s) and Ibekwe as a demon on the inside (7.8 rebounds per game and almost 3 blocked shots per game).

    Marlyand loses their 1st, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers and the guys who were really the heart of the team. Gist and Vasquez are nice players, but that team revovled around Strawberry and Ibekwe for the most part. Maryland was most dangerous when Jones was hitting from outside.

    What's more, the Terps are just not bringing in much in terms of a recruitiung class to make up for those guys. Wing guard Cliff Tucker is the only guy they have coming in who Rivals ranks in the top 100. This is not like Duke or UNC or even Ga Tech reloading with Mickie Dees.

    The only way Maryland is .500 in the ACC next year is if several guys who have not shown any signs of being ACC stars in the past suddenly make a real leap forward. It could happen, but does not seem very likely.

    -Jason "I could easily see Maryland struggling to something like 6-10 or even 5-11 in the ACC" Evans

  10. #10
    Agreed Jason, it seems like the Acc is very top heavy(Unc & Duke) after these two the talent just isn't there. Ga Tech and Nc State may crack the top 25 throughout the year but I don't see them as talent wise top 25. The Acc is down this year big.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Maryland lost a lot more than just Strawberry. Ibekwe and Jones were extremely solid players. Both of them scored in double digits and served a vital need for the team-- Jones as a great outside shooter (44% on 3s) and Ibekwe as a demon on the inside (7.8 rebounds per game and almost 3 blocked shots per game).

    Marlyand loses their 1st, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers and the guys who were really the heart of the team. Gist and Vasquez are nice players, but that team revovled around Strawberry and Ibekwe for the most part. Maryland was most dangerous when Jones was hitting from outside.

    What's more, the Terps are just not bringing in much in terms of a recruitiung class to make up for those guys. Wing guard Cliff Tucker is the only guy they have coming in who Rivals ranks in the top 100. This is not like Duke or UNC or even Ga Tech reloading with Mickie Dees.

    The only way Maryland is .500 in the ACC next year is if several guys who have not shown any signs of being ACC stars in the past suddenly make a real leap forward. It could happen, but does not seem very likely.

    -Jason "I could easily see Maryland struggling to something like 6-10 or even 5-11 in the ACC" Evans
    Since teams tend to not dramatically have different records than prior year where MD was 10-6, I upgraded MD from 7-9 inoriginal analysis to 8-8.

    I think it is safe to say Duke with its net gains improved more than +1 from 8-8 and MD with its net losses digressed by at least (-1) from 10-6.

    The team that went 7-0 against these second tier Duke-GA T-NCS-Clemson is at a minimum 50% gone. At least two of the top 4 leaders in every statistical category except FT% is gone and in many cases 3 of the 4.

    It is not so much that Duke had quantum improvement as it is that this year's ACC is inferior to last year's for almost every ACC team, except Duke at least broke even net player wise, particularly in the unreplaceable ACC experience category.

    Duke also caught a break on who it plays at home versus who it faces on the raod. MD did not fare badly there either with Duke, UVA, BC, VA T and WF twice, Clemson, FSU and NCS at home and tough games with UNC and GA T on road, plus Miami on the road, but that has already been factored in.

    I must admit that I never heard of most of the guys MD has picking up the slack. Gary has a good track record of getting results out of people I never heard of, but I suspect it will take a couple of years.

    There are about 7 ACC teams, including MD, in the 8-8, plus or minus one category, but I can't see anybody except UNC, Duke and possibly GA T or NCS or Clemson with enough returnees to be approaching the 11-5 or even 10-6 it would take to place 2nd in ACC.

    MD should set its sights on being on the inside of the bubble as one of the 3rd-5th ACC teams, or hope Lunardi is right that ACC will get 7 bids. IMO, this would be quite an accomplishment given all the players Gary lost from last year's surprisingly good team.
    Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 06-22-2007 at 08:40 PM.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by kydevil View Post
    Agreed Jason, it seems like the Acc is very top heavy(Unc & Duke) after these two the talent just isn't there. Ga Tech and Nc State may crack the top 25 throughout the year but I don't see them as talent wise top 25. The Acc is down this year big.
    Agree, but NCAA in general is down. It''s probably just a reflection of this past season being the first one where NBA early entrants had to play a year in college. I don;t follow recruiting enough to know how this year's crop of fresh compares to prior or future years.

    My guess is because it is not a stellar year, only 5 of the best 9 ACC teams make the dance, but Lunardi is currently showing 7.

    For top 3 or 4 in a conference, top of Big East seems to be better with Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown, and possibly Nova, Syr, W VA, UCONN or Pitt being pretty decent.

    My guess is this is year of Pac 10 with UCLA, Wash St, USC, Oregon and Stanford being better top 5 than any other conference, and tough year for Zona.

    Big 10 (Mich St or Indiana, followed by Wisc/Ohio St), Big 12 (KS by default, then TX and not much else) and SEC (TN by default with KY a longshot, followed by Bama/Arkansas with FL having a year like UCONN did last year) appear relatively light when compared to PAC 10, Big East and even ACC.

    So if there are any decent mid-majors they could get in the dance, or ACC may get more than I think.

    If ACC does, it will be like last year with a lot of decent teams but few dominant ones.

    Seems to be a lot more distance this year between top 25 and top 67.
    Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 06-22-2007 at 06:29 PM.

  13. #13

    Maryland

    ACCBBallfan - Your analysis of Maryland is fair. I posted the following several weeks regarding the Terps and they have since added Tucker who should get some playing time at guard/wing.

    "Next year will be a transition year for the Terps. They lost a bunch of points, rebounds, blocked shots and steals through graduation. They will be a very young team – 2 seniors, 1 junior, 3 sophs and 5 freshmen (1 redshirt), and Williams will need to find the 8-9 players who play well together. The core of the team will be returnees Gist, Vasquez and Hayes. I expect Bowie to back up Vasquez and Hayes at guard, Milbourne to start at wing, Gregory to back up Gist and some combination of Osby, Dupree and Burney to play center. The team will have good size and will have the players to run on offense and potentially play good defense.

    Gist has improved each of the three years he has played. Last year he developed some back-to-the-basket moves to go with a mid-range jump shot and, late in the year, he also showed a nice three-point stroke. I look for him to average 15-18 ppg. As rising sophs, I expect both Vasquez and Hayes to be improved. As frosh they were good ballhandlers and passers, and they were decent on defense. Vasquez is an aggressive player and he should average 12-13 ppg while Hayes should up his points and assists to say, 8-9 ppg and 5-6 apg. All three players should be solid ACC players.

    Bowie is similar to many of the support players (Davis, Brickey) that Duke used to get. He is heady, a good ballhandler and passer, is terrific driving to the hoop and he is a good defensive player. He was the point guard and teammate of Durant and Vasquez for Stu Vetter at Montrose Christian. I expect him to be a solid contributor by mid-season.

    Milbourne is a 6-7 soph who could not break into last year’s perimeter rotation. The couple of times I saw him, he reminded me of UNC’s Terry as a freshman/soph. He is a good run/jump player, an aggressive rebounder and has the reputation for being a good shooter. He played at Oak Hill and was considered a good prospect. He is probably the biggest question mark on next year’s team.

    Osby surprised many last year and had several good games off the bench. He may begin the season as the starting center but he is undersized and I suspect that Dupree will play a bunch of minutes as will Burney. Dupree is the Terps center of the future and is compared to Lonnie Baxter as a freshman while Burney has a reputation as an outstanding shot blocker.

    If the Terps were in the MVC, I would predict that they would be one of the top three teams and have an outside chance at an NCAA bid. Alas, they play in the ACC. Even with a weakened ACC and a favorable schedule, I expect them to finish in the bottom middle (6-8). I don’t see this as bad trend. In 2008-9, I would expect them to improve."

    gw67
    Last edited by gw67; 06-22-2007 at 06:43 PM. Reason: typo

  14. #14

    Maryland will actually be a better team next year

    If Maryland was desperate and could only rely on Gist, Vasquez, Hayes, Osby and Landon Milborne with Dave Neal as a sub they would still be a decent team capable of beating any other team in the conference except UNC. Osby fits into the flex much better than Ibekwe did. Gist continues to improve and could easily end up first or second team All ACC this year. Hayes and Vasquez are outstanding guards and the drop off between Mike Jones and Eric Hayes will be minor. But the Terps have a shot blocking redshirt freshman in Jerome Burney and five sleeper recruits. Between Milborne, Burney and the freshman coach Williams will find at least two outstanding players to complement Gist, Hayes and Vasquez. More than anybody Gist, Hayes and Vasquez brought the passion to win back to the program.

  15. #15
    Welcome back j_w. I've missed your posts on the Terps. I agree with much of what you said although I think next year will be a rebuilding year.

    I suspect that the Terps will be a good defensive team by the second half of the season but will experience games where they find it difficult to score. The keys will be (1) to find the right 4-5 players to complement the returnees and (2) outside shooting. The latter will depend on improvement by Vasquez, more 3-point shots by Hayes and Gist, and the development of Milborne. Both Hayes and Gist are excellent outside shooters and they need to look for their shots within the offense,

    I agree that Gist should be one of the top players in the ACC next year. The time he spends trying out for the Pan Am team should, like Scheyer and Nelson, benefit his play next year. I heard or read that Vasquez will be a member of the Argentina team. Do you know for sure? He doesn't need an infusion of confidence but playing against better, more experienced players, should help him as well.

    gw67

  16. #16

    Maryland crystal ball part II

    I have no information on Vasquez.

    I think that the three leaders of the team have the right amount of passion that they will set the right tone. Everybody else including the walk on Jason McAlpin have every incentive to work themselves into the rotation. The one gnawing disappointment last year was the inability to win on the road in the former Big East Arenas. I think that the Terps will rectify that problem this year. They were 0-3 , all on the road, against BC, Miami and Va Tech. But the team and the schedule will be different this year. If they can stay ahead of the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech they will be a big factor this year

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    My guess is this is year of Pac 10 with UCLA, Wash St, USC, Oregon and Stanford being better top 5 than any other conference, and tough year for Zona.
    Do you really think Oregon will be that good? I mean they lost the heart and soul of that tema in Aaron Brooks. I honestly believe we seen the VERY VERY BEST of Wash. St. and i dont believe they can perform to that level again(im sure they will prove me wrong). Even though Wash. loses Hawes they still have alot of good players left and should be a greatly improved squad.

    Anyway, I agree with most of your thoughts on the ACC. Even maryland. I just dont see how G-Tech will be 2nd tier... Maybe 3rd. Sure they have some decent athletes.. but that doesnt mean they will be great.

    PS: If Duke wins a title soon i will have my first victory cigar!
    Last edited by DukeBlood; 06-24-2007 at 06:19 PM. Reason: Thought my title "Victory Cigar" was funny

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Is Duke stuck with playing Maryland twice a year until the end of time? I don't understand that compared to, say, Wake or NC State, both more obvious longtime rivals. Maryland was only a "real" rival back during the Juan Dixon years, and that was because we and they were both so good. But there's not much there long-term.

    Is the problem that Maryland just doesn't have a natural rival, so we're it by default? I'm sick of it.

    Bring back the old pre-expansion ACC schedule!

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by just_wondering View Post
    They were 0-3 , all on the road, against BC, Miami and Va Tech.
    Two minor corrections, both involving Miami. The regular season loss to Miami was at Maryland, not at Miami. Also, with the loss to Miami in the ACCT, the Terps actually went 0-4 against the former Big East.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by mapei View Post
    Is Duke stuck with playing Maryland twice a year until the end of time? I don't understand that compared to, say, Wake or NC State, both more obvious longtime rivals. Maryland was only a "real" rival back during the Juan Dixon years, and that was because we and they were both so good. But there's not much there long-term.

    Is the problem that Maryland just doesn't have a natural rival, so we're it by default? I'm sick of it.

    Bring back the old pre-expansion ACC schedule!
    Well we did lose to Maryland both times last year. I mean we don't dominate the series so why not keep playing them?

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