This Week in the ACC - 1/24-1/30

[pfrduke]

For the time being, the non-conference records will be absent from this post - still getting caught up from spending several weeks sans hoops. Lots of clustering in the ACC standings so far (not terribly surprising, since we're just 5 games in), so this week will be a lot about teams trying to separate themselves from what is a very decidedly unremarkable pack. Let's take a look at the week ahead.

Monday was dark.

Tuesday brings us the battle of the Techs in Atlanta will NCSU hits the road to play at Clemson. The winner of the latter game will be sitting at .500 in conference after 6 games, which is a decent spot for either squad. As for the former game, this is exactly the type of game Virginia Tech has lost in recent years and exactly the type of game they can't afford to lose this year if they want to avoid being stuck on the outside of the NCAAs looking in. Georgia Tech, for what it's worth, has won its last 2 games by a combined 55 points.

[82]Georgia Tech hosts [22] Virginia Tech
[41]Clemson hosts [85]NC State

Wednesday puts the Heels back in action for the first time in over a week to take on a Miami team whose frantic comeback on Sunday in Raleigh fell just short. The Hurricanes have not lived up to the preseason hype, but they will be dangerous at home. Miami definitely has the better guards, but a lot will ride on who wins the battle inside between Zeller and Reggie Johnson. A loss for Miami all but erases NCAA hopes; a win for UNC keeps them above the middle-of-the-pack fray.

[68]Miami hosts [23]North Carolina

Thursday sends BC into Cameron where the Devils will get another defensively challenged opponent against whom they can try to get their offensive kinks worked out. On the other side of the ball, BC has by far the most efficient offense that Duke has played against this year - indeed, it's currently ranked as slightly more efficient than Duke's on the season (even after the 51 point performance against FSU); defending BC will be a good test for the Devils' defense. Maryland also travels to Virginia trying to keep the momentum of this weekend's close win over Clemson going. Like the NC State-Clemson game, the winner will come out of this one at .500 in the conference, the loser stuck at 2-4.

[2]Duke hosts [63]Boston College
[105]Virginia hosts [21]Maryland

Friday is dark.

Saturday sends FSU to Clemson - a win here would bode extremely well for FSU's staying power at the top of the ACC standings. NCSU travels to Chapel Hill to take on the Heels - if they can steal two road wins and get to 4-3, they'll be in ok shape heading down the stretch (still not a lot of room for error, though); if the Pack lose both and end up at 12-9, 2-5, they'll be checking their NIT bubble status. Finally, Virginia travels to Wake in what has to be one of the 2 or 3 best chances for the Deacs to steal a conference win (and Virginia still checks in as a 75% favorite).

[41]Clemson hosts [35]Florida State
[23]North Carolina hosts [85]NC State
[245]Wake Forest hosts [105]Virginia

Sunday Duke travels to MSG to take on St. John's (in the middle of a brutal scheduling stretch: through the Duke game, their 8 most recent games will have been Georgetown, @Notre Dame, Syracuse, Notre Dame, @Louisville, Cincinnati, @Georgetown, Duke). Closer to home, Virginia Tech hosts Miami and Maryland travels to Georgia Tech.

[2]Duke at [54]St. John's
[22]Virginia Tech hosts [65]Miami
[82]Georgia Tech hosts [21]Maryland

[HCheek37]

For the 3 teams ranked similarly by KenPom, this is a huge week.

VA Tech has a winnable road game and a home game they should win. They are 70% and 86% likely to win according to kenpom. Those 2 wins would vault then to 5-2 in conference and 15-5 overall, and 11-1 in their last 12. Definitely a big week for Seth and his kids.

Maryland has two home games against feisty ACC competitors and need to snap out of their current 2-3 stretch. They are 77% and 70% favorites this week and would be sitting at 14-7 (4-3) with 2 wins. Terps need wins or Gary will be sweating on March 13.

UNC battles Miami before hosting NC State this week. Two wins here would put the Heels at 5-1 in conference and 15-5 overall. Pretty important week for Roy if he wants to worry about seeding instead of getting in on Selection Sunday.

My predictions for the week:

Va Tech > Ga Tech
NC State > Clemson
Miami > UNC
Duke > BC
Maryland > Virginia
Clemson > Flor St
UNC > NC State
Virginia > Wake
Duke > St Johns
Va Tech > Miami
Maryland > Ga Tech

[CDu]

NC State got off to a big lead to start their game at Clemson. They were up 31-12. It's now 32-27. I can't remember a game in which the team with the lead at the half was down to only two timeouts, but that's likely to be the case in this one.

[CDu]

State is trying hard to seal their fate for the season. They were up 31-12 on Clemson in Littlejohn. They proceeded to give back nearly all of that lead in a 17-1 run toward the end of the first half. And now, they're down 5 with under 4 to go and Clemson's at the line. Just a real collapse after a hot start.

[davekay1971]

State is trying hard to seal their fate for the season. They were up 31-12 on Clemson in Littlejohn. They proceeded to give back nearly all of that lead in a 17-1 run toward the end of the first half. And now, they're down 5 with under 4 to go and Clemson's at the line. Just a real collapse after a hot start.

An incredible collapse. They nearly lost a 17 point lead at home against Miami, now they've fallen apart completely against Clemson. With their young team, this is the kind of loss that will really hurt whatever confidence State had left and probably seals Lowe's fate. Hopefully the team doesn't completely give up on him, because there is talent there that can grow for next season. But I have no doubt it will be under a different coach.

[-jk]

Yeesh - after running out to a 19 point lead at Clemson, State falls completely apart and chokes it away, 60-50.

-jk

[Klemnop]

Yeesh - after running out to a 19 point lead at Clemson, State falls completely apart and chokes it away, 60-50.

-jk

I prefer, "After sleepwalking through the first 14 minutes, Clemson woke up and hammered NCState the way that they should have."

This is the first time I've watched NCState play this year so I have no idea if they are easy or hard to defend. But the defense that Clemson played for the last 26 minutes of the game was...well, I lack for an adequate adjective. State had 32 with 6:00 to play in the first half and managed only 18 points over the next 26 minutes. Within that stretch Clemson held State to 8 points between the 17:50 mark of the 2nd half and the 2:48 mark.

Klem

[Bob Green]

They were up 31-12.

Wow! Clemson outscores NC State 48-19 to go from 19 down to up 10. That is a monumental collapse for the Wolfpack. Perhaps it is a season defining collapse. I now give State about a 1% chance of beating Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday. Sidney Lowe has got to go and I seriously wonder if he'll survive the season?

[JasonEvans]

I am gonna feel insane for doing this but... I am here to defend the State loss tonight.

Folks, this was a road game. Yes, State got hammered late, but losing on the road (especially in Littlejohn) is just not that big a sin. State may be 2-4 in the conference right now, but their only home loss is to Duke. They still have very winnable road games left at Wake and Virginia. If they hold serve at home and win those road games, they would go 9-7 in the conference and, I believe, they would save Sid's job.

This is a young team, a team that has a lot of talent. It is not impossible to imagine that it would come together over the next couple weeks and be a much better team in February than they have been in January.

While I would love to see them put in a big effort at UNC this weekend, I believe the key game -- the one that may very well determine Sid's fate -- comes next Wednesday when they host Va Tech. A win there and State could begin to right the ship. Of course, it will be tough to gain momentum off that win because they come to Duke just a few days later. Still, I see that game as the potential turning point in State's season.

Now, all that said, I want to conclude by saying that I doubt State will turn it around under Sid. I think they will lose more games at home and I think they will not win much on the road (maybe Wake, but not Virginia).

I further think the powers that be at State will recognize that NOW IS THE TIME for a new coach after this season. Sid's recruiting will be part of his downfall as State will recognize that their talent base makes the job a bit more attractive and may allow them to lure a higher profile coach.

-Jason "well, that may be the most I have written about a second-tier ACC program EVER " Evans

[Duvall]

-Jason "well, that may be the most I have written about a second-tier ACC program EVER " Evans

Second-tier?

[devildeac]

Wow! Clemson outscores NC State 48-19 to go from 19 down to up 10. That is a monumental collapse for the Wolfpack. Perhaps it is a season defining collapse. I now give State about a 1% chance of beating Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday. Sidney Lowe has got to go and I seriously wonder if he'll survive the season?

1%? You are being WAY over-optimistic.

Has firesidney.com been created yet?

[loran16]

I am gonna feel insane for doing this but... I am here to defend the State loss tonight.

Folks, this was a road game. Yes, State got hammered late, but losing on the road (especially in Littlejohn) is just not that big a sin. State may be 2-4 in the conference right now, but their only home loss is to Duke. They still have very winnable road games left at Wake and Virginia. If they hold serve at home and win those road games, they would go 9-7 in the conference and, I believe, they would save Sid's job.

This is a young team, a team that has a lot of talent. It is not impossible to imagine that it would come together over the next couple weeks and be a much better team in February than they have been in January.

While I would love to see them put in a big effort at UNC this weekend, I believe the key game -- the one that may very well determine Sid's fate -- comes next Wednesday when they host Va Tech. A win there and State could begin to right the ship. Of course, it will be tough to gain momentum off that win because they come to Duke just a few days later. Still, I see that game as the potential turning point in State's season.

Now, all that said, I want to conclude by saying that I doubt State will turn it around under Sid. I think they will lose more games at home and I think they will not win much on the road (maybe Wake, but not Virginia).

I further think the powers that be at State will recognize that NOW IS THE TIME for a new coach after this season. Sid's recruiting will be part of his downfall as State will recognize that their talent base makes the job a bit more attractive and may allow them to lure a higher profile coach.

-Jason "well, that may be the most I have written about a second-tier ACC program EVER " Evans

Here's the problem. NC State SHOULD have have lost to Clemson. But when you go up 19 points on someone, the equation changes...all NC State had to be was 19 points better than Clemson for 26 minutes on the Road. THEY SHOULD BE. Instead, they were 29 points worse. That's utterly insane.

[Dev11]

1%? You are being WAY over-optimistic.

Has firesidney.com been created yet?

www.firesidneylowe.com is quite simple and quite hilarious.

[pfrduke]

this is exactly the type of game Virginia Tech has lost in recent years and exactly the type of game they can't afford to lose this year if they want to avoid being stuck on the outside of the NCAAs looking in.

Georgia Tech 72, Virginia Tech 57. The Jackets (who have lost to Siena, Kennesaw State, and Charlotte, among others) are 3-0 at home in conference, with an average margin of victory of 23 points. They're also 0-3 on the road with an average margin of defeat of 15 points. What a schizophrenic team.

[Bob Green]

I just took a look at the box score and Georgia Tech doubled up Virginia Tech in the 2nd half 36-18. This illustrates the fact a team must bring it for all 40 minutes.

[pfrduke]

I just took a look at the box score and Georgia Tech doubled up Virginia Tech in the 2nd half 36-18. This illustrates the fact a team must bring it for all 40 minutes.

Indeed. The two road teams scored 16 and 18 points in their second halves tonight, each turning halftime leads into double-digit defeats.

[GLTBD]

I hope no one is overlooking the Boston College game tomorrow in Cameron. I did not see a pregame thread posted yet. I apologize If I missed it.

[loran16]

UNC Survives Miami thanks to heroics by Harrison Barnes tying and making the game winning 3. UNC was about to turn the ball over before the game winning shot...and then a Miami defender fell down, leaving Barnes wide open.

Sigh.

[DukieInBrasil]

the Holes down the Canes in Miami. Miami blew a 16 pt 1st half lead and the game was locked in a tense back and forth with all sorts of ties and lead changes. The Canes just choked it away. Credit to the Holes defense, which was surprisingly feistier than I had anticipated.
Don't look now but it looks like HB is learning how to be a big-time player. His overall numbers were not spectacular but he got some crucial 2nd half steals and he hit several really huge buckets, including most of the Holes' final points.

[gw67]

I watched both the Maryland and the Duke games last night on two TVs. I know, the wife thinks I'm crazy. The Terps game started about an hour before the Devils game. Normally, I turn off the sound when there are two games going on simultaneously because my old brain can't process the input fast enough. Last night, I turned off the sound to the Maryland game early because the play-by-play and color were taking away from a boring beginning to the game. Ex-Virginia player, Junior Burroughs, was one of two color men and, to be charitable, he has a long way to go.

The Duke-BC game is discussed in another thread. IMO, BC lucked out beating Maryland on the road and that win has convinced a bunch of folks that they are pretty good. I see them settling back into the pack although Donahue may be able to get enough out of them to reach the NCAAT.

The Maryland-Virginia game was close for a half but the Terps offense came alive in the second half and combined with their excellent perimeter defense led to a rout. The game featured probably career games for two unsung players - Sene for Virginia and Bowie for Maryland. In addition, Maryland followed up a good effort against Clemson with a final ten minutes in which they did not unravel as they have done several times this year. If they had played a little better at the end of three of their games, they would have defeated BC, NOVA and Temple. I feel bad for the Cavs. They are young and without Scott, they rely on a four guard offense.

There are some interesting games this weekend:

FSU @ Clemson - Clemson played well against Maryland and came from far behind to win their last game. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers pull an upset.

UVA @ Wake - This might be a tough game to watch and I suspect that the Wake players see this as a win at home. Should be close but I think Virginis will get a win on the road.

Miami @ Virginia Tech - Tech is undermanned but they play well at home. They should win against a Miami team that is sinking fast.

Maryland @ Georgia Tech - If the Terps continue to play tough defense and can get good play from their freshmen point guards, I expect them to get another road win. If the perimeter players retrogress to their pre-Clemson ways then GT will probably pull out a win. It will be interesting to see if Williams has a better game.

gw67