MBB: Duke vs. Wake Forest Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[rotogod00]

I know you never want to overlook an opponent, but we're playing at home against a Wake team that has lost by an average of 26 points to four teams with a 6-9 overall conference record.

Looks like a good game to work on some things and get a little PT for the end of the bench.

[strawbs]

actually we are playing at Wake not at home. I hope we can blow them out early so we get tyler and josh more minutes, and also so nolan can sit and get healthy instead of playing 40 minutes.
I'm not trying to look past Wake, but I have no doubt in my mind that this game will be a decisive duke victory.

[wilson]

...we're playing at home against a Wake team that has lost by an average of 26 points to four teams with a 6-9 overall conference record.

First things first: The game is in Winston-Salem.
Not that it really ought to matter.
Like many others, I was extremely encouraged by last night's overall team performance. The main thing I want to see on Saturday is no let-up. Against a clearly overmatched opponent, our boys need to come out and play confident, clinical basketball. This is a great opportunity to build on the progress displayed last night and generate more momentum for the meat of the ACC schedule.

[MChambers]

I'm sure Kedsy's on top of this, but this game will test our vaunted free throw defense, which has slipped to #17 overall. The one thing Wake does well on offense is shoot free throws (74.8%, 28th).

On defense, they do block a lot of shots, but that means they give up a lot of offensive rebounds.

[flyingdutchdevil]

But this is by far the worst team in the ACC. According to KenPom, they are the worst offensive team by more than 50 ranking spots and the worst defensive team by more than 40 ranking spots. I'm pretty sure that having Wake Forest in the ACC drops us from 3 to 5 in conference rankings (okay, I made that up. But you get my point ).

I really feel that if this team plays as bad as they did against UVA in the first half, we'll still be up. IMO, the only way that this game is close is if we have the worst shooting game of the year and WF has their best, Nolan and Singler don't play at all, or Chris Paul has some eligibility left.

I was slightly worried about FSU, very worried about NCSU, and not at all concerned about WF. I just hope that the players don't have this same feeling!

[loran16]

Pomeroy expects a 29 point win. I expect a win by a greater amount...Pomeroy is counting parts of earlier in the season when Wake had occasional bouts of non-terribleness, but they've been beyond awful in ACC play.

[dukelifer]

Duke will likely win the game- but how they win is important. They need to continue to work on using their bigs and minimize turnovers. If they play efficient, smart basketball- they will have done their job.

[moonpie23]

this game is a sucker-punch waiting to happen...


remember wake is the place where ANY movement by a duke player is a foul...

[PSurprise]

this game is a sucker-punch waiting to happen...


remember wake is the place where ANY movement by a duke player is a foul...

You're right. Hopefully we can beat them with our five guys glued to the court. I trust K will know where the best place to have them stand will be

[94duke]

this game is a sucker-punch waiting to happen...


remember wake is the place where ANY movement by a duke player is a foul...

Let's see what the statistics say. Here's a table showing fouls during our last 10 trips to Wake. In 3 of those games we committed significantly more fouls than our season average. I defined "significantly" as 5 more fouls than the season average. We were 0-3 in those games. If 5 fouls is too arbitrary (and it was arbitrary), lowering the the foul differential to 3 fouls adds one more game (01-02), and it was a win.

Incidentally, we have committed more fouls than Wake on our last 7 trips to W-S.

Here's the chart:
Fouls @ Wake Compared to Season Average

Season	Duke (Wake)	Season Avg (differential)			
08-09	21 (18)		18.1 (2.7)			L 68-70
07-08	31 (20)		19.2 (11.8)			L 73-86
05-06	17 (16)		17.3 (-0.3)			W 82-64
04-05	24 (19)		18.5 (5.5)			L 89-92
03-04	21 (16)		18.8 (2.2)			L 84-90
02-03	37 (27)		21.1 (15.9)			L 80-94 2OT
01-02	23 (11)		18.7 (4.3)			W 09-61
00-01	13 (18)		16.9 (-3.9)			W 82-80
99-00	14 (21)		16.3 (-2.3)			W 75-61
98-99	20 (28)		18.3 (1.7)			W 82-72

[loran16]

Let's see what the statistics say. Here's a table showing fouls during our last 10 trips to Wake. In 3 of those games we committed significantly more fouls than our season average. I defined "significantly" as 5 more fouls than the season average. We were 0-3 in those games. If 5 fouls is too arbitrary (and it was arbitrary), lowering the the foul differential to 3 fouls adds one more game (01-02), and it was a win.

Incidentally, we have committed more fouls than Wake on our last 7 trips to W-S.

Here's the chart:
Fouls @ Wake Compared to Season Average

Season	Duke (Wake)	Season Avg (differential)			
08-09	21 (18)		18.1 (2.7)			L 68-70
07-08	31 (20)		19.2 (11.8)			L 73-86
05-06	17 (16)		17.3 (-0.3)			W 82-64
04-05	24 (19)		18.5 (5.5)			L 89-92
03-04	21 (16)		18.8 (2.2)			L 84-90
02-03	37 (27)		21.1 (15.9)			L 80-94 2OT
01-02	23 (11)		18.7 (4.3)			W 09-61
00-01	13 (18)		16.9 (-3.9)			W 82-80
99-00	14 (21)		16.3 (-2.3)			W 75-61
98-99	20 (28)		18.3 (1.7)			W 82-72

Ah, but you're comparing the wrong thing! You need to compare Duke's fouls @ Wake to Duke's ROAD AVERAGE FOULS. Factoring in home games in the average gives an unfair comparison.

The question really is, how does Wake compare to other road arenas.

[94duke]

Ah, but you're comparing the wrong thing! You need to compare Duke's fouls @ Wake to Duke's ROAD AVERAGE FOULS. Factoring in home games in the average gives an unfair comparison.

The question really is, how does Wake compare to other road arenas.

Very good point. I'm not sure I have that data available. If you know where I can find it, I'll update the table.

Thanks.

[94duke]

Very good point. I'm not sure I have that data available. If you know where I can find it, I'll update the table.

Thanks.

I'll just do it game-by-game. I'll need a few more minutes.

[ThePublisher]

I predict we beat Wake 150-23! Ok maybe that's a little much, but it should be one of our easiest games of the season. Lets say 93-56. Living in Winston, I'll be at the game. I expect it to be a Duke heavy crowd with wakes current situation.

[94duke]

Ok. I revised the table. Now comparing fouls committed at Wake to fouls committed in ACC road games, Wake excluded. The numbers tighten up compare to the previous table. The results are similar. 2 games have a huge foul differential (>9) with 2 more games that have a "significant" foul differential (4 & 5 fouls).

Fouls @ Wake Compared to Season Average (ACC road games, excluding Wake)

Season	Duke (Wake)	Season Avg (differential)			
08-09	21 (18)		18.4 (2.6)			L 68-70
07-08	31 (20)		21.9 (9.1)			L 73-86
05-06	17 (16)		20.7 (-3.7)			W 82-64
04-05	24 (19)		19.0 (5.0)			L 89-92
03-04	21 (16)		19.9 (1.1)			L 84-90
02-03	37 (27)		22.0 (15.0)			L 80-94 2OT
01-02	23 (11)		19.0 (4.0)			W 09-61
00-01	13 (18)		19.1 (-6.1)			W 82-80
99-00	14 (21)		17.1 (-3.1)			W 75-61
98-99	20 (28)		18.1 (1.9)			W 82-72

[snowdenscold]

remember wake is the place where ANY movement by a duke player is a foul...

Ewing picked up one of his mysterious technicals there in 2005.

[OldPhiKap]

Ewing picked up one of his mysterious technicals there in 2005.

It is the ghost of Darius Songaila. A/K/A "The Human Foul Machine"

[RoyalBlue08]

This is the only league game I feel calm and comfortable about. (Needless to say I am an emotional wreck during basketball season.) Hopefully our players don't overlook Wake as much as I am.

[gam7]

I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that this Wake team may be the worst ACC team in the last 15 years.

[ncexnyc]

Last year we entered the Wake Forest game with a sense of anticipation. The previous few years they had played us extremely tough and based on early season results this game appeared to be a battle for supremacy in the ACC. When the dust had settled we found ourselves victorious. The game was extremely physical and it was also a very emotional one. Monday morning we were hailing two new heroes. The Plumlee brothers had arrived and they were going to provide us with the inside game we longed for.

A couple of days later, with our new and improved frontcourt we met NC State. I vividly recall several posts predicting an easy blowout as State was near the bottom of the league standings. What we got that evening was anything but a cakewalk. State came out playing with passion and intensity. We looked flat and Tracy Smith left our new frontcourt in a heap of smoldering ashes.

This year the script has been flipped. After losing our first ACC road game, there was a definite sense of anticipation as we prepared to play State on their homecourt. Could we show not only the world, but ourselves that we could indeed win a true road game? The game was a tough one of punch and counterpunch. When all was said and done we had come away with the win and again we were talking about the play of our frontcourt..

On Saturday we will play a Wake Forest team that is the last place team in the ACC. Again, I’m seeing posts which are very disrespectful of our future opponent. I just hope the kids on our team have a better memory than some of our fans do.