2010-2011 Problems at UNC

[Lord Ash]

Don't know if folks have seen this, but a MASSIVELY damning comment from Roy from yesterday, posted at a Carolina website...

"I’ve got half of the guys on my team that their mom and dad and their friends and everything think that they’re going to make $88 million. They could give a flip whether we win a game or not. They want their guy to get 37 shots and play 50 minutes in a 40-minute game..."

"It’s something that I’ve told many teams – if you cared one-tenth about it as much as I do, [gosh] it would be a lot of fun.”

Uhm... is it just me, or is this a pretty unbelievable thing for a coach to say? To be honest I didn't even guess that the chemistry was bad this year... or at least not as bad as this quote now makes me think. Why would Roy bring this up? Is it a coaching tactic?

Bizarre quote... even better than the "I am so angry I could fight someone with a chainsaw!" one from last week. And I would love to know what the [gosh] is replacing.

[flyingdutchdevil]

When Ole Roy won his first NC with UNC, he gained a significant amount of credibility. He was able to successfully recruit players that fit his system and also lucked out on how a few of those players turned out. 2004-2009 was an amazing time for UNC, much like Duke from 1998-2006. However, once Ole Roy was on his way to winning his second championship (or at least was pre-season #1 in the country, didn't have to coach, and let Lawson and Hansbrough charge through everyone), I think that his recruiting strategy changed. He no longer went after players that were 'glue' guys or legitimate 6th men (Danny Green, Marvin Williams, Deon Thompson) but rather went for heavy-weights with a proven scoring track-record (Leslie McDonald, John Henson, Reggie Bullock). Personality, and how these players mesh together, went straight out the window. It's like he looked at the Scout and Rival rankings, closed his eyes, and pointed to 3-4 players per year in the top 20. Furthermore, with UNC's success in the 00s, I think Roy felt that he didn't have to coach the players and that they could 'figure it out' themselves. This clearly hasn't been the case.

I think Roy realizes that he isn't invincible anymore. I think he realizes that 18- and 19-year olds need guidance, especially those who were once superstars in high school but need to come down to earth. I think Roy will once again, unfortunately, put everything together and once again be the UNC that contended for the ACC crown. It probably won't be this year, and maybe won't be next, but it'll happen soon enough.

[CDu]

When Ole Roy won his first NC with UNC, he gained a significant amount of credibility. He was able to successfully recruit players that fit his system and also lucked out on how a few of those players turned out. 2004-2009 was an amazing time for UNC, much like Duke from 1998-2006. However, once Ole Roy was on his way to winning his second championship (or at least was pre-season #1 in the country, didn't have to coach, and let Lawson and Hansbrough charge through everyone), I think that his recruiting strategy changed. He no longer went after players that were 'glue' guys or legitimate 6th men (Danny Green, Marvin Williams, Deon Thompson) but rather went for heavy-weights with a proven scoring track-record (Leslie McDonald, John Henson, Reggie Bullock). Personality, and how these players mesh together, went straight out the window. It's like he looked at the Scout and Rival rankings, closed his eyes, and pointed to 3-4 players per year in the top 20. Furthermore, with UNC's success in the 00s, I think Roy felt that he didn't have to coach the players and that they could 'figure it out' themselves. This clearly hasn't been the case.

I think Roy realizes that he isn't invincible anymore. I think he realizes that 18- and 19-year olds need guidance, especially those who were once superstars in high school but need to come down to earth. I think Roy will once again, unfortunately, put everything together and once again be the UNC that contended for the ACC crown. It probably won't be this year, and maybe won't be next, but it'll happen soon enough.

I think there may be something to this. I don't think it helps that he has simply miscalculated on his more recent recruiting classes. Drew, Strickland, McDonald, Henson, and Barnes have not (to this point) lived up to their billing (acknowledging that each had a different expectation level coming in). The Wears transferred out, and Graves got kicked off the team. All of these things have negatively impacted the program.

He had an embarrassment of riches when he came to UNC and then struck gold again with the Hansbrough class and with Lawson and Ellington. That 5-year run may have changed Williams's recruiting and coaching strategy, and he may still be trying to figure out how to adjust properly.

I didn't follow him as closely when he was at Kansas, but he had a lot of success there over many years with many different types of players. He's done very well without explosive PG before, too. So I don't think it's fair to say he doesn't know how to coach, or that he can't win without a Felton/Lawson at PG.

I'm more inclined to believe that he's just had a few years of recruiting misses, and that this is something he's not used to. Add to that the fact that these recruiting misses immediately followed a tremendous run of success, and he's not handling it well.

I hope it's something more than this, and that he's getting old and out of touch. But I'm more inclined to believe it's just a temporary blip and that UNC will bounce back soon (within the next few years, if not sooner).

[-bdbd]

I think there may be something to this. I don't think it helps that he has simply miscalculated on his more recent recruiting classes...

He had an embarrassment of riches when he came to UNC and then struck gold again with the Hansbrough class and with Lawson and Ellington. That 5-year run may have changed Williams's recruiting and coaching strategy, and he may still be trying to figure out how to adjust properly.

...he had a lot of success (at KA) over many years with many different types of players. He's done very well without explosive PG before, too. So I don't think it's fair to say he doesn't know how to coach, or that he can't win without a Felton/Lawson at PG.

I'm more inclined to believe that he's just had a few years of recruiting misses, and that this is something he's not used to. [I]Add to that the fact that these recruiting misses immediately followed a tremendous run of success, and he's not handling it well. ...But I'm more inclined to believe it's just a temporary blip and that UNC will bounce back soon (within the next few years, if not sooner).

I generally agree with the comments above - see bolded "keys." But disagree with the last bolded/italics one. UNC has not really had that many "misses" in terms of recruits they heavily recruited who went elsewhere. They've continued to bring in top-10 classes with some consistency. However, as was earlier posted, he/they have done a poor job of evaluating the talent they've targeted/obtained, and also how well those pieces would mesh. It happens everywhere - even K has brought in some kids with huge reputations who either didn't turn out as talented as expected (e.g. Burgess or Paulus) or didn't mesh well (e.g. McRoberts). But UNC has had several of these at the same time, on the heels (excuse the pun) of some great success. I think a further-complicating factor is that Roy, who I agree is probably a good coach overall, doesn't have "adaptability" or "player development" listed among his top strengths.

In any event, if I were a Kerlina fan I think I'd be at least as concerned over his finger pointing at the kids/parents (and not at himself/staff) as I would be about current wins/losses.

[billy]

Sorry if I missed this in the emails above, but, was this part of an interview or published anywhere?

[Lord Ash]

It was from Roy's weekly show; give it a read, there is even worse in there.

Link

I almost feel bad for him. Some of what he says is true, maybe, but he just doesn't seem to know when to say something and when to keep it private... it is all about knowing how to lead. It sounds silly, but I've "led" plenty of groups... sports teams, work teams, classrooms... and this sort of comment does NOTHING but make things worse. Roy just doesn't seem to "get it."

The difference between Roy and K, who obviously learned what it means to be a leader in one of the most focused schools of leadership on Earth (and, I think, was probably born with it as well) is just profound.

[CDu]

[/I][/I]
I generally agree with the comments above - see bolded "keys." But disagree with the last bolded/italics one. UNC has not really had that many "misses" in terms of recruits they heavily recruited who went elsewhere. They've continued to bring in top-10 classes with some consistency. However, as was earlier posted, he/they have done a poor job of evaluating the talent they've targeted/obtained, and also how well those pieces would mesh. It happens everywhere - even K has brought in some kids with huge reputations who either didn't turn out as talented as expected (e.g. Burgess or Paulus) or didn't mesh well (e.g. McRoberts). But UNC has had several of these at the same time, on the heels (excuse the pun) of some great success. I think a further-complicating factor is that Roy, who I agree is probably a good coach overall, doesn't have "adaptability" or "player development" listed among his top strengths.

In any event, if I were a Kerlina fan I think I'd be at least as concerned over his finger pointing at the kids/parents (and not at himself/staff) as I would be about current wins/losses.

I meant "misses" in terms of guys not panning out - not guys going elsewhere. The recruits he brought in haven't (so far) turned out to be the players that he thought he was getting. In other words, I meant miss as in miscalculation or misevaluation and not failure to successfully recruit a kid. The term "miss" may have been poorly used.

And I totally agree on the last paragraph. Williams has shown a tendency to air out his frustrations without filter. As a parent, I'm not sure I'd be overly excited about a guy like that coaching my kid. It's fine when things are going well. But when you hit bumps in the road, I'd want a coach who doesn't publicly throw my kid under the bus.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm more inclined to believe that he's just had a few years of recruiting misses, and that this is something he's not used to. Add to that the fact that these recruiting misses immediately followed a tremendous run of success, and he's not handling it well.

I hope it's something more than this, and that he's getting old and out of touch. But I'm more inclined to believe it's just a temporary blip and that UNC will bounce back soon (within the next few years, if not sooner).

In college basketball, everything starts with recruiting, whether it's the ability to draw in talented high school players (Cal, Ole Roy) or realize that underrated high schoolers can be coached into good-to-great college players (Gary Williams, Brad Stevens). While a coach will never know exactly what his team will look like next year, he can easily get a sense of this due to the current personnel and recruit against that.

I really think that Ole Roy's main issue is recruiting the wrong personnel. He isn't a bad in-game coach as some suggested (his track record at Kansas and UNC - last two years not withstanding - show that), he manages his players decently, he has integrity (at least some ). 9 McD All-Americans (or whatever the number is) clearly isn't the trick. He's only looking at talent (or potential talent) and not recruiting a triangle when the system demands a triangle (metaphor, not the type of offense).

[CDu]

In college basketball, everything starts with recruiting, whether it's the ability to draw in talented high school players (Cal, Ole Roy) or realize that underrated high schoolers can be coached into good-to-great college players (Gary Williams, Brad Stevens). While a coach will never know exactly what his team will look like next year, he can easily get a sense of this due to the current personnel and recruit against that.

I really think that Ole Roy's main issue is recruiting the wrong personnel. He isn't a bad in-game coach as some suggested (his track record at Kansas and UNC - last two years not withstanding - show that), he manages his players decently, he has integrity (at least some ). 9 McD All-Americans (or whatever the number is) clearly isn't the trick. He's only looking at talent (or potential talent) and not recruiting a triangle when the system demands a triangle (metaphor, not the type of offense).

I don't know that it's fair to say that he's only looking at talent and not looking at chemistry. It could be that Williams has ignored the talent mix and just recruited an all-star team, but I don't know that it's fair to say that yet. I think it is more fair to say that he's just misevaluated on a few recruiting classes. Remember - he did recruit two guys who would have been role players (the Wears), but they transferred. And the other guys he has haven't been as good as advertised.

If the Wear twins stay (replacing Knox, who probably then doesn't get an offer) and Drew, Strickland, McDonald, and Marshall were as good as advertised in high school, this team would be REALLY tough. They'd have four all-ACC quality guards, two all-ACC quality bigs, and two solid, versatile, role playing bigs to do the dirty work. And that doesn't even consider that Henson, Barnes, and Bullock haven't had the impact they were expected to have, either. But none of those has been the case (Marshall and McDonald may be figuring it out).

Hopefully, it's a trend that continues!

[Lord Ash]

You know, this might sound way out there...

... but I never liked how Roy refers to himself by first name, and players do too. I cannot help but feel it leads down a bad path. Players should refer to their coach (and players being RECRUITED should DEFINITELY refer to their prospective coach) as "Coach" or "Coach So and So." Generally they should NOT be on a first name basis with a few exceptions (in very personal discussions, etc.)

I can't help but think Ol'Roy is not a very good leader.

[kong123]

looks like we will see a different starting lineup for tonight's game. word is, Roy told the assistants to completely shuffle the deck between the first team and second team and make them fight it out in practice. sounds like Marshall, McDonald, and Knox may start at the 1, 2, and 5. Perhaps Knox will start for Henson instead of Zeller, but we will see. Either way, tonight's game will be interesting for many different reasons.

[UrinalCake]

looks like we will see a different starting lineup for tonight's game.

This should be interesting. I think Roy is walking a really fine line between "shaking things up" to send the starters a message, versus appearing like he has no idea what he is doing. By this time of year guys should be settling into their roles. Not to say that late-season lineup changes can't happen (as they have at Duke) but completely starting from scratch, combined with the 5-man substitutions we've seen in the last two games, makes me think he's grasping at straws hoping to stumble upon something that will work.

I like Knox starting over Henson. He always seems to play well when I see him in the game, and it will take some pressure off of Henson.

Also, with respect to Roy's recruiting, Duke has gone after some of these same guys, so either both programs were wrong in evaluating them, or the players are simply in the wrong system. Recruiting is not an exact science; we certainly found that out with the Paulus/McRoberts class.

[jdj4duke]

Not a current player or team problem, but I am sure their fans wouldn't consider this the Carolina Way. Warning- not safe for work, kids, or civilization. All that's needed is a chain saw episode.

It's a good thing he's not an agent, too, since that would put him in Roy's doghouse.

http://jocksandstilettojill.com/2011...h-traci-lords/

[moonpie23]

O....M....G !!!!!!!!

[CLT Devil]

I think one thing that is very simple to see in explaining the current state of UNC basketball is that they basically did not miss out on any recruits, either landing them or their production once they arrived, while Duke has some pretty big misses in both areas. Lately Duke has started to bounce back, and it's all cyclical, and currently UNC is going through a bad stretch in having players show up on campus who just aren't as good as advertised or fail to develop like expected.

That's one huge thing that Carolina has basically hit home runs on since Roy has been there that has not panned out in the last couple of seasons.

As far as his comment on players' family and friends; Does anyone remember the feud between Sean May's family (mainly his Dad) and 'Doh? It led to some dissention...could that possibly be going on again, as parents might be questioning the Coach since the team is not winning?

[peterjswift]

I don't know if this was mentioned in the thread about Roy's players' loss to GaTech, but Drew II's father was sitting immediately behind the bench. After reading some of the meltdown on IC, it is clear that the biggest complaint is how much Roy plays Drew when a more than qualified backup is available. I think Roy is competent enough to realize this, but possibly not confident enough to pull the struggling Drew when his NBA Coach father is breathing down his neck.

That being said, I think Roy has a point about his players and their parents, but he's clearly just as guilty as his players. If Roy really cared about winning, he would have pulled Drew, despite his father sitting right behind him.

[Duvall]

That being said, I think Roy has a point about his players and their parents, but he's clearly just as guilty as his players. If Roy really cared about winning, he would have pulled Drew, despite his father sitting right behind him.

To be fair, Drew II had a better game than Marshall on Sunday.

IC is dumb. Changing the starting lineup won't make a huge difference when one player gets 21 minutes and the other 19.

[CDu]

To be fair, Drew II had a better game than Marshall on Sunday.

IC is dumb. Changing the starting lineup won't make a huge difference when one player gets 21 minutes and the other 19.

Well, it COULD make a difference if Williams keeps using predominantly separate lineups (i.e., keeps subbing 5 for 5). In that case, it may very well matter which 5 are paired together for roughly half the game or more. It may be that pairing Marshall more with the first unit (and getting him more minutes) would make a big difference.

If the substitution pattern gets less drastic and there's more mixing of lineups, then I agree with you. The only true change would be if the minutes distribution changed.

[peterjswift]

To be fair, Drew II had a better game than Marshall on Sunday.

IC is dumb. Changing the starting lineup won't make a huge difference when one player gets 21 minutes and the other 19.

Drew II did, but his platoon didn't fare as well as Marshall's platoon.

[walras]

Another issue that is real, and no one seems to have connected with the current UNC situation, is Dean Smith's declining health. It is well known around UNC that Williams talked to Smith almost daily over all the years Roy was at Kansas, and also during his first years back at UNC. Last year Smith was no longer able to function as Roy's mentor. The result was the 2009-2010 disaster. And the disaster continues. Cause and effect.