MBB: Duke vs. NCSU Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[lotusland]

I thought I would start the thread since I have a question.

Why are we playing our only regular season game vs. NC State in Raleigh for the second straight year?

[94duke]

I thought I would start the thread since I have a question.

Why are we playing our only regular season game vs. NC State in Raleigh for the second straight year?

We play them Sat, Feb 5, at home this year.

http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.db...45&SPSID=22726

[DukieInBrasil]

NCSU has me a bit worried, considering how feeble we were vs. UVa for 3/4 of the game. NCSU has a certified Duke-slayer in Tracy Smith and is now joined by a solid post player in CJ Leslie and a good, though error-prone PG in Harrow. Throw in a few useful role players and they have a real team.
It all depends on which Wolfpack team shows up to play which Blue Devils team. If the 1st half UVa-Duke team shows up to play the 2nd half Wisc.-NCSU team, that'll be some ugly basketball. However, Duke has enough horses and real talent to win the game by nearly any metric, it just depends on how they come out to play.

[Jarhead]

I thought I would start the thread since I have a question.

Why are we playing our only regular season game vs. NC State in Raleigh for the second straight year?

We have two primary partners and nine rotating partners. The two primary teams are UNC and Maryland who we play twice every year, home and away. For each of the other nine rotating teams, we play three on a home and away basis, three at home and three away. I think this set up is set to expire this year, but it is likely to be renewed. Don't ask me why UNC and Maryland. Wake or NC State seem more appropriate. This year we do play State twice.

[lotusland]

We have two primary partners and nine rotating partners. The two primary teams are UNC and Maryland who we play twice every year, home and away. For each of the other nine rotating teams, we play three on a home and away basis, three at home and three away. I think this set up is set to expire this year, but it is likely to be renewed. Don't ask me why UNC and Maryland. Wake or NC State seem more appropriate. This year we do play State twice.

Thanks that explains it. I had just assumed we would only play them once again this year. I hope we play better than we did last year in Raleigh. I would have told anyone predicting a championship after that game last year that they were out of their mind.

[UrinalCake]

Not only does Tracy Smith fit the exact mold of someone Duke DOESN'T want to face, but they've got a forward who can shoot from the outside (Scott Wood) which is also a recipe for disaster for us. They have underwhelmed in Smith's absence, started to pull things together when he came back, but have since dropped their last two to BC and FSU. Nevertheless, they are capable of beating us and the crowd will be amped as always.

[UrinalCake]

I would have told anyone predicting a championship after that game last year that they were out of their mind.

Yeah, then we played Georgetown a few games later and almost the exact same thing happened. Pay heed - a lot can change between January and March!

[dukelifer]

Not only does Tracy Smith fit the exact mold of someone Duke DOESN'T want to face, but they've got a forward who can shoot from the outside (Scott Wood) which is also a recipe for disaster for us. They have underwhelmed in Smith's absence, started to pull things together when he came back, but have since dropped their last two to BC and FSU. Nevertheless, they are capable of beating us and the crowd will be amped as always.

Will be a very tough game for Duke- no question. If States' guards play out of their heads like last year- it could be a long night. If they turn the ball over- Duke should win. Again- the play of the bigs- on defense- will determine the game.

[Atldukie79]

1) I believe State's partners are UNC and Wake, aand UNC is matched with State and Duke. It would have been traditional to have Wake and Duke matched (in addition to our UNC pals). At the time this was all set up, Maryland and Duke were in the thick of a competitive rivalry. I can only assume it was for TV dollars and not much else.

2) I am curious now that we have several years under our belt with this rotating system...which teams got randomly screwed by having to play the better teams twice rather than the weak teams? It seemes to me that every year Duke has drawn the "short straw" and palyed a tougher ACC rotation... any researchers out there?

[moonpie23]

FOCUS...

that's the key....this team will be out to embarrass us again like last year...


I trust that this duke team learned something from the loss...

[UrinalCake]

It seemes to me that every year Duke has drawn the "short straw" and palyed a tougher ACC rotation... any researchers out there?

Last season I did a little research in comparing Maryland's ACC schedule to ours (since we tied atop the conference). There's a few different ways of looking at it. I don't know if I can dig up that old post, but here's the gist of it:

If you look at which teams we had to play twice, Maryland and Duke had roughly equal schedules (based on the final conference rankings of our opponents). But for the teams we played once, Maryland had to play tougher opponents on the road. We had the fortune of playing the weaker teams on the road and the stronger teams at home - not insignificant considering how we did play a lot worse on the road. Now of course, NC State was considered a "weak" team as they finished near the bottom of the conference, but proved to be a tough opponent for us.

Last year some Duke fans were also making a big deal out of "rest day discrepancies," i.e. situations in which we have to play a team on, say, three days rest while the opponent has had five days rest. Again Maryland has more room to complain here as they had a stretch where they played three games in five days due to the snow storms.

Also, the fact that we were the #1 seed in the ACC tournament while Maryland was the #2 came down to some pretty minute differences in the rankings of our opponents. To say that our record was clearly better than theirs would be a bit of a stretch. And the bottom half of the ACC tournament turned out to be MUCH tougher than the top half. So if things had gone differently, like the outcome of some random GT-Clemson game being reversed, we could have easily been the #2 seed, and who knows how the rest of the season would have gone.

IMO there is no scheduling conspiracy at work here. Just luck of the draw from year to year.

[sagegrouse]

1) I believe State's partners are UNC and Wake, aand UNC is matched with State and Duke. It would have been traditional to have Wake and Duke matched (in addition to our UNC pals). At the time this was all set up, Maryland and Duke were in the thick of a competitive rivalry. I can only assume it was for TV dollars and not much else.

2) I am curious now that we have several years under our belt with this rotating system...which teams got randomly screwed by having to play the better teams twice rather than the weak teams? It seemes to me that every year Duke has drawn the "short straw" and palyed a tougher ACC rotation... any researchers out there?

Mr. U.C. handled last year. I believe the conference rotation is a matter of mathematical precision, so any "unbalance" over the years is due to the rise and decline of basketball fortunes, not the inherent logic. I am prepared to believe it is "fair." Now, of course, Duke has an easier schedule year-in and year-out because it doesn't have to play, uh, Duke.

WRT rivalry games, having Duke take Wake instead of Maryland would mean that the rivalry games of the four NC schools would all be with each other. I can see how the other members and the ACC leadership would not like that: it is a bit "unfriendly" (or unrivalrous?) toward the other members and could be destabilizing if there is another round of conference musical chairs. The ACC would likely then have a northern pod, a NC pod, and a southern pod -- each with four teams. It's better to mix 'em up. Much as I despise Maryland athletics, I have to concede that a Duke home game every year sells thousands of UMd season tickets and is worth millions of dollars to Terpdom.

sagegrouse
'If Duke's other rival was NC State, then Wake would be closed out WRT in-state rivals'

sagegrouse

[jv001]

NCSU has me a bit worried, considering how feeble we were vs. UVa for 3/4 of the game. NCSU has a certified Duke-slayer in Tracy Smith and is now joined by a solid post player in CJ Leslie and a good, though error-prone PG in Harrow. Throw in a few useful role players and they have a real team.
It all depends on which Wolfpack team shows up to play which Blue Devils team. If the 1st half UVa-Duke team shows up to play the 2nd half Wisc.-NCSU team, that'll be some ugly basketball. However, Duke has enough horses and real talent to win the game by nearly any metric, it just depends on how they come out to play.

I think NC State gets fired up for Duke more than any opponent they face. But we should be used to that, as all our opponents have that same inspiration. If they beat us, the win is put in the column of very good wins. I guess that should make me happy we're regarded as a power team most every year. What makes me angry is that State can't get fired up to play the Tar Heels. This year State has the talent to cause us problems, but their lack of experience could hurt them. If we get up by 10-12 points early, that could take the crowd out of the game. Then our job get's much easier. We need to make the 3s or move the ball much better than we did against FSU and Va. We cannot waste good defense at the beginning of the game like we did against FSU. Had we played as well offensively as we did defensively at the beginning of the game, I believe the outcome would have been different. Players have a tendency to short arm shots when game pressure is on. I think Coach K will have our guys ready for this one. Go Duke!

[davekay1971]

I think NC State gets fired up for Duke more than any opponent they face. But we should be used to that, as all our opponents have that same inspiration. If they beat us, the win is put in the column of very good wins. I guess that should make me happy we're regarded as a power team most every year. What makes me angry is that State can't get fired up to play the Tar Heels. !

You clearly don't know many State fans. The ones I know consider us a secondary rival. That's not an insult from them - they all recognize that Duke is every bit as dominant a program as Carolina, possibly moreso. But they look at Carolina as their number one rival. They like beating Duke, they consider us a rival, but Carolina is the one they really, really love to hate.

Admittedly, State's more recent big upset was over us, and for the last couple years they haven't played their best against the Heels. But it wasn't that long ago (Lowe's first year, I think), when they took down a top 5 Carolina team in the RBC center. Trust me, the place was rocking. Their inability to beat the Heels the last 3 years has nothing to do with desire.

[weezie]

They like beating Duke, they consider us a rival, but Carolina is the one they really, really love to hate.

Yes, that is one of their endearing traits. They're pretty cute that way

[Bob Green]

This is a pivotal game as we need to secure our first conference road victory. Winning on the road is going to be tough in the ACC this season so Duke needs to take it to the Wolfpack with authority to demonstrate we are the best team in the league. Yes, FSU took it to us in Tallahassee but the road loss was an anomaly and the rest of the league can forget about defending their home court against the Blue Devils! That is the message we need to send on Wednesday by giving a team, which soundly defeated us last year, a beat down. The key to victory will be playing tough nosed Duke defense.

[UrinalCake]

I haven't done any research to back this up, but I feel like since the Wolfpack moved into the RBC Center we tend to not shoot very well there. Maybe it's something about the arena itself (I find the 360 degree flashing light strip to be someone seizure-inducing myself) or maybe it's just that State plays really hard defense against us, but at any rate I'm expecting another tough shooting night. Hopefully we can rein in the threes and find other ways to score.

[DukieInBrasil]

WRT rivalry games, having Duke take Wake instead of Maryland would mean that the rivalry games of the four NC schools would all be with each other. I can see how the other members and the ACC leadership would not like that: it is a bit "unfriendly" (or unrivalrous?) toward the other members and could be destabilizing if there is another round of conference musical chairs. The ACC would likely then have a northern pod, a NC pod, and a southern pod -- each with four teams. It's better to mix 'em up. Much as I despise Maryland athletics, I have to concede that a Duke home game every year sells thousands of UMd season tickets and is worth millions of dollars to Terpdom.
sagegrouse
'If Duke's other rival was NC State, then Wake would be closed out WRT in-state rivals'
sagegrouse

add to this that Baltimore/DC area is a much more fertile recruiting ground than is western Piedmont of NC. So getting exposure up there ought to be good for our recruiting: as exemplified by having Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton, Josh Hairston on the team as well as having Quinn Cook on the way. Seems to be working out alright.

[94duke]

I haven't done any research to back this up, but I feel like since the Wolfpack moved into the RBC Center we tend to not shoot very well there. Maybe it's something about the arena itself (I find the 360 degree flashing light strip to be someone seizure-inducing myself) or maybe it's just that State plays really hard defense against us, but at any rate I'm expecting another tough shooting night. Hopefully we can rein in the threes and find other ways to score.

Hopefully I haven't copied anything wrong. Here's the research, from goduke.com:

Duke at NC State (RBC Center)
Date		FG%	3FG%	W/L	Score
2/19/2000	58.0	35.7	W	71-66
1/10/2001	39.7	44.4	W	84-78
1/13/2002	46.7	38.1	W	76-57
1/22/2003	37.7	30.8	L	71-80
2/15/2004	41.1	43.5	L	74-78
1/13/2005	51.9	33.3	W	86-74
1/20/2007	52.5	35.0	W	79-56
3/01/2008	38.6	46.4	W	87-86
1/20/2010	38.6	38.5	L	74-88

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/

[jipops]

I expect us to get manhandled a good bit in the paint again. The good news is that State's defense hasn't been nearly as strong as MD's and FSU's. We should be able to get some offense going. However, UVA's defense hasn't been much this season either but still managed to limit us to 25 pts at home. Another dogfight coming up, won't be anything easy about this one.