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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The City of Brotherly Love

    MBB: Duke vs. Florida State Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Ok folks, it's Tuesday and no one has started discussing Duke's first conference contest away from the friendly confines of CIS. I haven't seen Florida State this year, but Leonard Hamilton's teams historically play physical, if not dirty, against Duke, particularly in Tallahassee.

    FS beat Clemson at home and recently lost to VT in Blacksburg. It's played a very respectable OOC schedule beating Baylor with competitive loses against Butler and Florida, and, to a lesser extent, OSU. Ken Pom rates FS in the low 50's and the middle of the ACC with BC, Clemson, and Miami, and has Duke as a 12 point favorite.

    I'm always a little anxious when we play at FS. What do you all think?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    I think I will be nervous before any conference road game (except for Wake.) I certainly do not expect to run away from FSU as I expect them to be tough to score against, as Hamilton's teams always are. Fortunately, I don't think they can score enough themselves to beat Duke, as their offense has been terrible this year (ranked 164th in the country according to KenPom vs. 133 for Wake.) Wow, after having seen Wake play a bit a couple of times this year, I am shocked to see Florida State ranked below them offensively. I expect it will be a low scoring game that keeps the score close, but I am hoping that Duke goes on a run by limiting Florida State's points for a stretch and/or creating turnovers (FSU turns the ball over 24.3% of the time, good for 311th in college basketball.)
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by 77devil View Post
    Ok folks, it's Tuesday and no one has started discussing Duke's first conference contest away from the friendly confines of CIS. I haven't seen Florida State this year, but Leonard Hamilton's teams historically play physical, if not dirty, against Duke, particularly in Tallahassee.

    FS beat Clemson at home and recently lost to VT in Blacksburg. It's played a very respectable OOC schedule beating Baylor with competitive loses against Butler and Florida, and, to a lesser extent, OSU. Ken Pom rates FS in the low 50's and the middle of the ACC with BC, Clemson, and Miami, and has Duke as a 12 point favorite.

    I'm always a little anxious when we play at FS. What do you all think?
    Outside of the UNC game at Cameron, I am always a little more excited about away ACC games. I can't explain it - maybe it's watching how our team deals with pressure. Considering this is our first, I am extremely jittery about this one.

    I think this will be an interesting test. According to KenPom, FSU is one of the top two defensive teams in the ACC (the other being UMD). With a player like Chris Singleton, who should again run away with the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, this team will limit Duke's chances as much as possible. Because of CS, I envision Singler playing a lot more 3 than usual. While I'm sure Singler can play Singleton just fine, Coach K loves those mismatches!

    The good news is that FSU couldn't make a basket to save their lives. According to KenPom, they are the worst rated offensive team in the ACC (ranked 164 nationally. Ouch). That's worse than Wake Forest.

    Despite Duke always playing it close in Tallahassee, I foresee Duke comfortably winning but having a low scoring game (Duke in the low 70s, FSU in the high 50s).
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  4. #4
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  5. #5

    Should Be Ugly

    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Despite Duke always playing it close in Tallahassee, I foresee Duke comfortably winning but having a low scoring game (Duke in the low 70s, FSU in the high 50s).
    Well, we COULD win comfortably. Also, we could win ugly (or even lose). Most of the predictions made by most of us are just shots in the dark, no matter how many stats we have at our disposal. Since I'm nervous about this one, we'll probably blow them out.

    Expect copious quantities of blood, sweat and tears. I have NEVER been a fan of Big Bad Leonard and his glaring shtick. To me, he is one of the most irritating coaches, just a notch below true jerks like Bo Ryan.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    Hope you're right

    Quote Originally Posted by slower View Post
    Well, we COULD win comfortably. Also, we could win ugly (or even lose). Most of the predictions made by most of us are just shots in the dark, no matter how many stats we have at our disposal. Since I'm nervous about this one, we'll probably blow them out.

    Expect copious quantities of blood, sweat and tears. I have NEVER been a fan of Big Bad Leonard and his glaring shtick. To me, he is one of the most irritating coaches, just a notch below true jerks like Bo Ryan.
    and we blow them out, but like you I'm concerned about FSU's defense. They play hard nose defense that borders on dirty. My main wish is we come out healthy. I expect us to come out with lot's of energy and knock them back a bit. We can't give them added confidence and let the fans energize them. FSU had trouble against the press in the one game I was able to watch. So I think we pressure them. Kyle will probably play the 3 mostly in this game. That doesn't leave many minutes for our guards to split. Whoever plays the best defense will probably garner the most minutes between: Andre, Seth and Tyler. Nolan's minutes are a given. I say we win 72-64. Go Duke!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Whoever plays the best defense will probably garner the most minutes between: Andre, Seth and Tyler. Nolan's minutes are a given.
    Even coming right after his great game against Maryland, I'd be shocked if Tyler got more minutes against Florida State than either Andre or Seth. In his "breakout game," Tyler got 12 minutes while Seth got 18 and Andre got 30. Even taking only the 2nd half of the Maryland game, which minute-wise is as good as it will ever get for Tyler this season, Tyler and Seth both played 12 and Andre played 14, and that unlikely three-way timeshare was only possible because Ryan and Mason played 3 and 7 minutes respectively in the half.

    I really like Tyler, and this is not a knock on his abilities in any way, but if Kyle plays mostly at the 3, as several posters have suggested, then we should expect Tyler to get 5 or fewer minutes against FSU.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC

    You're correct

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Even coming right after his great game against Maryland, I'd be shocked if Tyler got more minutes against Florida State than either Andre or Seth. In his "breakout game," Tyler got 12 minutes while Seth got 18 and Andre got 30. Even taking only the 2nd half of the Maryland game, which minute-wise is as good as it will ever get for Tyler this season, Tyler and Seth both played 12 and Andre played 14, and that unlikely three-way timeshare was only possible because Ryan and Mason played 3 and 7 minutes respectively in the half.

    I really like Tyler, and this is not a knock on his abilities in any way, but if Kyle plays mostly at the 3, as several posters have suggested, then we should expect Tyler to get 5 or fewer minutes against FSU.
    I should have said if Andre or Seth are struggling on defense, Tyler could get some of their minutes. I know all things being equal, Tyler is not going to get equal minutes with Andre and Seth. He's just not that far along yet. But he does play pretty good defense and he really came through against Maryland. I see around 5-10 minutes for Andre, but maybe not against FSU. GoDuke!

  9. #9
    This is a perfect game for us to play right now. FS may be the best defensive team in the nation, all things considered. Playing in hostile territory against a defensive wall will offer challenges for us that will only make us better. I am totally confident that we will win, however; it might get nasty at times. Great match up for us right now.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    But he does play pretty good defense and he really came through against Maryland.
    I completely agree with this. However, my expectations for Tyler are he'll play 5 to 10 minutes in a few selected games but in most games it will be less than 5. With Kyle and Nolan both averaging 40 minutes a game in our two ACC games, we just won't have enough minutes to go around in most situations.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I should have said if Andre or Seth are struggling on defense, Tyler could get some of their minutes. I know all things being equal, Tyler is not going to get equal minutes with Andre and Seth. He's just not that far along yet. But he does play pretty good defense and he really came through against Maryland. I see around 5-10 minutes for Andre, but maybe not against FSU. GoDuke!
    Singleton seemed to be FSU's main scorer in the VT game. Other than him, their offensive game looked bad. If Singler defends against Singleton, then I doubt if FSU gets over 60. Duke should have the firepower to get at least 70. I expect Nolan and Kyle to go close to the full 40 minutes. I like us with lineups with at least 3 scoring threats together to make it difficult for defenders.

    One lineup that I like is with Nolan, Kyle and Andre taking that role with Tyler and Miles providing our best defenders with them.

    An alternate lineup with include Nolan, Kyle, Seth, and Kelly with one of Miles or Mason. Again, three scorers with bigs.

    I am not thinking that Josh has mastered enough defense to be in there for significant minutes.

    If will be interesting to see if Coach K sees Tyler as a player he can use in a regular rotation after his wonderful showing against Maryland.

  12. #12

    We stop singleton....we win the game!!!

    Enough Said...

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    iowa
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Even coming right after his great game against Maryland, I'd be shocked if Tyler got more minutes against Florida State than either Andre or Seth. In his "breakout game," Tyler got 12 minutes while Seth got 18 and Andre got 30. Even taking only the 2nd half of the Maryland game, which minute-wise is as good as it will ever get for Tyler this season, Tyler and Seth both played 12 and Andre played 14, and that unlikely three-way timeshare was only possible because Ryan and Mason played 3 and 7 minutes respectively in the half.

    I really like Tyler, and this is not a knock on his abilities in any way, but if Kyle plays mostly at the 3, as several posters have suggested, then we should expect Tyler to get 5 or fewer minutes against FSU.

    Agreed. I really like Tyler, I thought before the season started he would be more of a contributor than a lot of people thought. However we shouldn't set our expectations of him too high, after playing well in his first meaningful minutes of the season.
    Everyone was quick to do this with Mason after the Marquette game (and the CBE classic as a whole) and look how that turned out. I don't know why people set their expectations of the players so high after they play well in one game. Now if they play well in a string of games then we should start raising our expectations. That's my 2 cents anyway.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    visions of jason williams missing free throws will be forever connected to the letters FSU in my brain...

    it's ALWAYS ugly down there...

    it will be interesting to see how nolan responds to his best "awful" game...
    "Either we're going down, or they are....... Kirk out!"

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA

    Will Coach K go Orange?

    Virginia Tech shut the Seminoles down with an aggressive 2-3 zone. FSU couldn't buy a basket and VT finished the 1st half on a 10-0 or 12-0 run after switching from M2M to the 2-3 zone. Prior to the switch, FSU was scoring off offensive rebounds. While it is a given Duke plays M2M defense almost exclusively, this is a game where Coach Krzyzewski might consider employing his good friend Jim Boeheim's favorite defense.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    While it is a given Duke plays M2M defense almost exclusively, this is a game where Coach Krzyzewski might consider employing his good friend Jim Boeheim's favorite defense.
    I would LOVE this....even if it's just for 5 minutes each half! Wonder if Bill Raftery is doing the PBP? ha!

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Virginia Tech shut the Seminoles down with an aggressive 2-3 zone. FSU couldn't buy a basket and VT finished the 1st half on a 10-0 or 12-0 run after switching from M2M to the 2-3 zone. Prior to the switch, FSU was scoring off offensive rebounds. While it is a given Duke plays M2M defense almost exclusively, this is a game where Coach Krzyzewski might consider employing his good friend Jim Boeheim's favorite defense.
    This seems a bit counter-intuitive to me as zones are typically harder to rebound in. If FSU is only scoring off offensive rebounds, wouldn't the team be better off staying in a man-to-man so that it is easier to find your man to box out? I understand VT used this successfully, but it just seems to me that you would really want to make sure the team concentrated on boxing out from the zone.
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    nyc
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Virginia Tech shut the Seminoles down with an aggressive 2-3 zone. FSU couldn't buy a basket and VT finished the 1st half on a 10-0 or 12-0 run after switching from M2M to the 2-3 zone. Prior to the switch, FSU was scoring off offensive rebounds. While it is a given Duke plays M2M defense almost exclusively, this is a game where Coach Krzyzewski might consider employing his good friend Jim Boeheim's favorite defense.
    This is an interesting question. I would say probably not. With our perimeter depth, I think K plans on sticking with m2m all season...and, given how bad FSU is on offense, we're probably not going to have to employ novel strategies to contain them. I think we'll probably keep working on perfecting our m2m, rather than taking this opportunity to practice a defense that probably won't be used much the rest of the season.

    on the flip side, maybe K will use this opportunity to try some new looks on D. just not sure if you learn much trying something new against such an offensively challenged team. I mean, you could falsely deduce that the defense worked well when in fact FSU just can't buy a bucket, generally.

    Hope we stick with m2m and just get better at our bread and butter.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    To K, Zone = Surrender.

    Unless we are protecting someone due to foul trouble, or unless we are doing something just to switch up for a few plays (or on an inbound), it ain't gonna happen.
    "Enjoy every sandwich" -- Warren Zevon

  20. #20

    zone

    Keep in mind that FSU will be at home. So, the chance that they would hit the shots that they missed at VT would be higher if we pay zone

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