The Kyrie Irving Toe Vigil

[richardjackson199]

I Agree. It's a fairly wide held opinion that Kenny Smith's late return to UNC back in '84 hampered their championship mojo. Now, I want Irving to come back because a) I think he can improve the team and b) I selfishly want to see him suit up in a Duke uniform again and have my doubts about him returning next season. That being said, I certainly think that him returning for the ACC tournament or maybe a game or 2 earlier could (emphasis on COULD) have a negative impact on Duke's championship hopes.

If anyone can manage reintegrating a talent like Irving back into the lineup that late in the season it would be K but never forget that the '84 UNC team had a pretty good coach on their sideline as well.

Respectfully, I think it will be nothing but wonderful when Kyrie returns this year (feel the oz-optimism). Adding a player of Kyrie's caliber will only help our team, even as he works his way back from injury. Of course I don't expect him to put up 31 and be blazing at 100% his first game back. But I have all the faith that K can work him back into some roles where he will only make us better. It worked out pretty well when Boozer came back in '01 late in the NCAA tourney. I'm not concerned that some fans down 15-501 are blaming their 84 season on a failure of Smith to re-integrate a talent like Smith. I'm also very optimistic that now that Kyrie's toe has been better positioned that healing will be better in coming weeks. I'm hopeful that 6-8 weeks from now we will be hearing some more good news on his progress. For now, Duke is continuing to grow and I'm loving every minute. And should we be fortunate enough to be playing in April, I know we'll all be loving Kyrie doing that thing he does. Yessir.

[CDu]

yeah, sorry if I had that wrong. point is a typical one seed is usually about 5-1 payout or so .. maybe 4-1. So ranging around 20% or so for a top 1 seed. Sounds about right to me. Think of how many 1 through 3 seeds are legit contenders so that's 12 legitimate contenders right there. Not counting the Butlers and George Masons etc.

Yeah, even if a team was guaranteed to make the Final Four, assuming a 50/50 shot of winning each of the Final Four and championship games would make a team a 25% chance of winning the title.

For the fun of it, say a 1-seed has the following probabilities of winning given that they make each round:
1st round: 100%
2nd round: 90%
Sweet 16: 80%
Elite 8: 70%
Final Four: 60%
Championship: 50%

The probability of that team winning the title is 15.1%.

Even if you assume the following:
1st round: 100%
2nd round: 100%
Sweet 16: 90%
Elite 8: 90%
Final Four: 70%
Championship: 60%

That's a 34.0% chance of winning it all. So even a team that is heavily favored against elite competition would be far from the odds-on favorite.

That being said, let's hope Irving's toe heals, so we can be a bit closer to an odds-on favorite (trying to make my post at least remotely on topic).

[gofurman]

Yeah, even if a team was guaranteed to make the Final Four, assuming a 50/50 shot of winning each of the Final Four and championship games would make a team a 25% chance of winning the title.

For the fun of it, say a 1-seed has the following probabilities of winning given that they make each round:
1st round: 100%
2nd round: 90%
Sweet 16: 80%
Elite 8: 70%
Final Four: 60%
Championship: 50%

The probability of that team winning the title is 15.1%.

Even if you assume the following:
1st round: 100%
2nd round: 100%
Sweet 16: 90%
Elite 8: 90%
Final Four: 70%
Championship: 60%

That's a 34.0% chance of winning it all. So even a team that is heavily favored against elite competition would be far from the odds-on favorite.

That being said, let's hope Irving's toe heals, so we can be a bit closer to an odds-on favorite (trying to make my post at least remotely on topic).

yep- in your first example with the 15.1 % chance of winning it all that's a durn good team given your percentages and the sum is a 1 in 7 of winning the title.

[UrinalCake]

Respectfully, I think it will be nothing but wonderful when Kyrie returns this year (feel the oz-optimism). Adding a player of Kyrie's caliber will only help our team, even as he works his way back from injury.

I really hope that you are right, but I have to (also respectfully) disagree. At least I'll say that my optimism is more muted. The scenario I'd be most concerned about would be if his first game back were the ACC tournament. Would we risk throwing him in there and possibly losing a game as he works himself back into his rhythm? What do we do with Nolan? He's been playing great at the point, but the natural move would be to put the ball back in Kyrie's hands. It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. In the meantime, let's stay focused on the games in front of us because we're witnessing some great ball.

[coot]

I really hope that you are right, but I have to (also respectfully) disagree. At least I'll say that my optimism is more muted. The scenario I'd be most concerned about would be if his first game back were the ACC tournament. Would we risk throwing him in there and possibly losing a game as he works himself back into his rhythm? What do we do with Nolan? He's been playing great at the point, but the natural move would be to put the ball back in Kyrie's hands. It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. In the meantime, let's stay focused on the games in front of us because we're witnessing some great ball.

IF/WHEN he comes back he will come off the bench most likely. It will be easy to see if he is an off the bench player for a few games or if he is ready to take his job back immediately. There is not much risk at all of Coach K "throwing" him in there and risking a loss. Kyrie is only a help to this team IF/WHEN he comes back.

[oldnavy]

IF/WHEN he comes back he will come off the bench most likely. It will be easy to see if he is an off the bench player for a few games or if he is ready to take his job back immediately. There is not much risk at all of Coach K "throwing" him in there and risking a loss. Kyrie is only a help to this team IF/WHEN he comes back.

IF he comes back, let's not forget that he will have had some significant practice time with the team during his recovery. It is not like he will remove the cast and walk out for the jump his first time back.

With a player of Kyrie's talent (beyond elite) and a coaching staff as execellent as ours (perhaps the best ever), I for one would have NO worries about KI disrupting the team if he comes back. Put it this way, do you think any other programs out there are wishing that KI comes back BECAUSE they think we will become more vulnerable??

Keep in mind KI is not a one dimensional player. He does not have to score to be effective. Nolan and Kyle can continue to carry the majority of that load if need be, but KI can score and he does make the Bigs a larger threat to get involved offensively. No, I see nothing but positive if he can come back.

If he cannot, then it is a shame for him and basketball as a whole, but Duke will be fine. I really like what this team is doing. Now if we can get MP1 and MP2 to play just a tad better, we are going to be a very, very tough team down the stretch.

[davekay1971]

I really hope that you are right, but I have to (also respectfully) disagree. At least I'll say that my optimism is more muted. The scenario I'd be most concerned about would be if his first game back were the ACC tournament. Would we risk throwing him in there and possibly losing a game as he works himself back into his rhythm? What do we do with Nolan? He's been playing great at the point, but the natural move would be to put the ball back in Kyrie's hands. It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. In the meantime, let's stay focused on the games in front of us because we're witnessing some great ball.

Another point that should make Kyrie's return, if it happens, work better, is the timing at that time of the season. The ACC tournament is a big grind to come back into, so if his first game back is the first game of the ACCT, expect him to come off the bench for the entire tournament. Then there is a significant time break before what we all expect to be a 1-16 game in the NCAAT, which is a perfect game for him to really shake off the rust with starter's minutes, if his recovery allows. We should also have a significant talent advantage in a 1-8/9 game (against a team of the caliber of, say, UAB), which we should be able to handle even if Kyrie hasn't shaken off the rust. So, it is really 2 full weeks after the beginning of the ACCT before we play teams that present a legitimate threat in the NCAAT (assuming the rest of the team plays decently in the first weekend).

The sooner he can come back, obviously, the better. But if he can't make it back for the end of the regular season, I fully expect him to be a strong asset for us by the time we hit the 2nd and (hopefully) 3rd weekends of the NCAAT.

[J_C_Steel]

This is definitely the greatest speculation thread I've ever read on this board. Really phenomenal stuff.

In my highly speculative and completely unfounded opinion, getting Kyrie Irving back on the court this year, regardless of his role (bench, starter, 15-20 minutes per game, 25-35 minutes per game), would be a huge boost for the team. I have confidence in the coaching staff to successfully re-orient the team as necessary even if KI returns during the post-season. It's not like seasoned vets like Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler will get all jittery trying to let KI run the offense. They'll work him back in and give him as much responsible as he feels he can handle. My only concern would be on the defensive end -- would it be better for Coach K to take KI off of "on the ball" point guard defense? That's what could put the most pressure on KI's foot/toe.

[richardjackson199]

I really hope that you are right, but I have to (also respectfully) disagree. At least I'll say that my optimism is more muted. The scenario I'd be most concerned about would be if his first game back were the ACC tournament. Would we risk throwing him in there and possibly losing a game as he works himself back into his rhythm? What do we do with Nolan? He's been playing great at the point, but the natural move would be to put the ball back in Kyrie's hands. It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. In the meantime, let's stay focused on the games in front of us because we're witnessing some great ball.

You make reasonable points, and we're all just speculating. I don't believe bringing Kyrie back would do anything to hurt Nolan's performance. Nolan showed last year with his previous career high against Baylor, and also West Virginia that he can put plenty of points up as the off-guard. Scheyer was our point then. Kyrie has shown that one of his many unnatural gifts is his ability to get his teammates the rock in the spots they prefer, and esp. when they get hot. He also was shooting free throws above 90% - just another clutch weapon that comes in very handy in tournament time in a close game when teams are trying to catch up in the final minutes. Anyway - reasonable minds can disagree. We all agree that our #1 team is super fun to watch grow in Jan, Feb, and it will be an interesting/exciting March/April.

[Bluedevil114]

This is all a gut feeling but I expect him to be back for a home game in February. Coach K will want him to be comfortable on his return with the support of the Crazies. My anticipation is he will be back on February 20th for the Georgia Tech game and I agree he will not start. That will allow him a second home game to get some more run in a non conference game against Temple to continue to get up to game speed and game shape.

That would then allow him two games before a tough road test against Virginia Tech and then back home for Clemson which should not be that big of a test that late in the season. Then setting up a trip to UNC for the last regular season game of the season and last tune up before the ACC Tournament.

Of course I just scored four tickets to the Duke at UVA game and would love to see him back on Feb 16th but that is not my luck so put it down for the prediction of Feb 20th. GO DUKE!!

[OldPhiKap]

You make reasonable points, and we're all just speculating. I don't believe bringing Kyrie back would do anything to hurt Nolan's performance. Nolan showed last year with his previous career high against Baylor, and also West Virginia that he can put plenty of points up as the off-guard. Scheyer was our point then. Kyrie has shown that one of his many unnatural gifts is his ability to get his teammates the rock in the spots they prefer, and esp. when they get hot. He also was shooting free throws above 90% - just another clutch weapon that comes in very handy in tournament time in a close game when teams are trying to catch up in the final minutes. Anyway - reasonable minds can disagree. We all agree that our #1 team is super fun to watch grow in Jan, Feb, and it will be an interesting/exciting March/April.

As of now, it is pretty clear that this is Nolan's team. His leadership will not be jeopardized by Kyrie coming back. As with the case of Carlos Boozer, the team has remolded and the returning player needs to fit into the team that's playing. And, as you suggest, Kyrie is a great distributor -- that has to help Nolan, Kyle and others and there is not much downside.

Emotionally, having him back would be a huge boost even if he only plays a few minutes a game. Which I cannot imagine.

[BD80]

This is all a gut feeling but I expect him to be back for a home game in February. Coach K will want him to be comfortable on his return with the support of the Crazies. My anticipation is he will be back on February 20th for the Georgia Tech game and I agree he will not start. That will allow him a second home game to get some more run in a non conference game against Temple to continue to get up to game speed and game shape.

That would then allow him two games before a tough road test against Virginia Tech ...

I'd rather he not play at all against VaTech. Too great a chance that he would reinjure his foot after contact with a Greenberg Goon.

[roywhite]

I'd rather he not play at all against VaTech. Too great a chance that he would reinjure his foot after contact with a Greenberg Goon.

Good point.

Uncle Fester probably has the team doiing "stomping" drills already.

[CDu]

As of now, it is pretty clear that this is Nolan's team. His leadership will not be jeopardized by Kyrie coming back. As with the case of Carlos Boozer, the team has remolded and the returning player needs to fit into the team that's playing. And, as you suggest, Kyrie is a great distributor -- that has to help Nolan, Kyle and others and there is not much downside.

I agree. Given how well Smith is playing, I would have to expect that Irving (if he is able to return at all) will be asked to fit his talents around the team as led by Smith. The two may ultimately share the ballhandling duties again (taking some of the pressure off of Smith), but I suspect it'll be Smith leading the team the rest of the way in the backcourt.

Emotionally, having him back would be a huge boost even if he only plays a few minutes a game. Which I cannot imagine.

Yeah, given the nature of the injury, I would be shocked if they brought Irving back before he is expected to be ready to play 25+ minutes a night again. And if he's ready to play 25+ minutes a night, I don't see how we wouldn't have him on the floor for those 25+ minutes per night.

[sdotbarbee]

Hi,

His last tweet, that I read (before I head to bed):

kyrieirving Kyrie Irving
im just gonna stop tryna understand...its whatever now..


HOWEVER, I have no idea what he is referring to, might not have anything to do with his toe. Tea leaf reading is hard.

GO DUKE!

kyrieirving Kyrie Irving
Lol that tweet two nights ago had nothing to do with my injury...
25 minutes ago

Guess we are all too paranoid.

[SuperTurkey]

kyrieirving Kyrie Irving
Lol that tweet two nights ago had nothing to do with my injury...
25 minutes ago

Guess we are all too paranoid.

A wise man once said: "Women. Can't live with 'em. Pass the beer nuts."

[MulletMan]

kyrieirving Kyrie Irving
Lol that tweet two nights ago had nothing to do with my injury...
25 minutes ago

Guess we are all too paranoid.

I kind of figured that an 18 year old frosh at Duke who was up late and had decided to stop trying to understand something was probably frustrated with a something he was studying or a video game he was playing.

[deezl]

kyrieirving Kyrie Irving
Lol that tweet two nights ago had nothing to do with my injury...
25 minutes ago

Guess we are all too paranoid.

My initial thought that it was regarding a female. I think most can agree that they are impossible to understand.

[sdotbarbee]

My initial thought that it was regarding a female. I think most can agree that they are impossible to understand.

Well the only thing that worried me was that was the night of the doctors conference call and I thought maybe it had something to do with that. I am glad I was wrong.

[mr. synellinden]

My initial thought that it was regarding a female. I think most can agree that they are impossible to understand.

Maybe it was Calculus.