Decourcy on Monroe

[SilkyJ]

Reading Decourcy's article linked from the DBR homepage: I found this quote:

"Monroe, who is 6-10, 220 pounds and attends Helen Cox High in Harvey, La., has a broad set of shoulders and serious athleticism. What he does not have at this point in his development is any consistent means of getting the ball in the basket. He can take the ball off the boards and dribble into an open court, and he's a capable passer. But Monroe is not a jumpshooter by any means and not quick enough to drive the ball past prominent wings. That's why playing him outside is of little use."

Sound like another top 3 recruit who was a serious bust at Duke???

When you are 6'10, 220 and can jump out of the gym, its pretty easy to score in high school...but as we learned from McBob, it doesn't always translate to college. Frankly, Coach K needs to go out and get us another TRUE post-player a la Sheld...or lets hope Zoubek surprises us all...

[Patrick Yates]

Calm down silky, I think DeCourcey is trolling.

Yes, GM will have to be a post player to succeed both at college and in the pros. He will.

The summer hoops scene is seriously flawed. It is geared towards people being able to create their own shots. Most of the PGs are black holes, in that once the ball goes to them it ain't coming back out. True posts only excell when they are familiar with the PG, ie the PG knows when, where, and how the post sets up, what shots the post looks for, and how the post will react on penetration. This only occurs through endless repitions. The summer scene routinely throws kids together who are unfamiliar with each other's playing styles.

Rivals, and SI.com, both praised GM for being more assertive around the post, while abandoning he perimeter more and more. Now, GM's AAU team was relatively weak (GM being the only real star) so for them to win GM had to take over games. So he probably tried (had) to do too much this summer.

Also, DeCourcey is sorta wrong about GM. GM will never be a low post beast. He will probably top out at arround 245-250 lbs, not the 260+ of the posts DeCourcey mentioned. GM is probably shooting for more of a vintage C-Webb, from the glory days in Sac-Town. A big who can bang, but also step out and make you pay for packing the lane. If we get GM, he will be a post, so don't worry.

DeCourcey, who I respect A LOT, is probably basing this on the Vince Carter Camp, and not having seen a lot of GM play (cause his teams rarely excelled). Nike is heavily into GM, and they want some perimeter to go with his post. Perimeter skills are the difference between a journey man post and a superstar. GM will play in the post, but will bring a little extra to the table, and he was at the Vince camp to hone those skills. All will be well, so do not worry. Decourcey is trying to fill column inches in a slow period. If this were serious, it would have been all over the recruiting blogoshpere this summer. It wasn't.

That said, Duke DESPERATELY needs a post. If Singler is still here, Duke will have all the inside-out players we need if GM comes here. K will not, and should not, entice GM here with some asinine notion of developing how GM wants. In CIS, K will chain GM to the post and make him a multimillionaire, or GM could very well turn into another, if better, McBob. Which ain't something GM should be aiming for.

Patrick Yates

[Classof06]

Do I still want Duke to land Monroe? Every bone in my body wants the kid. That being said, I agree with Silky and Patrick in that Duke needs a post player. If Monroe isn't that, then still try and get him, but bring a true big in as well. Simply put, Zoubek is a project; don't let anyone tell you different. He is one that can and hopefully will be solid by his junior year or so, but he cannot be the only true post player on the roster.

This article hits close to home because if you look at (at least what I consider to be) the two most recent "disappointments" in Duke basketball, I immediately think of Josh McRoberts and Shavlik Randolph. Coach K envisioned both of them playing in the post when they had neither the experience/desire/skills to do so. The skills part isn't a knock; McRoberts game will translate much better to the NBA and I think it's evident that Shav's already does. But McRoberts was incapable of being our go-to guy last year because he couldn't score with his back to the basket consistently (see: ACC Tournament game against NC State). My point is that I'd hate to see K land Monroe only to want him in the post where he doesn't want to be. It would cause everyone involved the same frustrations the Randolph and McRoberts careers did.

If he performs as expected, then I think most Duke fans will see that it would be a waste to confine Singler to the post; his game is just too versatile. And that is why, looking past this season into the future, we desperately need to get a true big to complement Kyle. Realistically, Duke will be fine but a true post player is the piece that I think everyone will see Duke desperately needs this season. Monroe is great, but if he doesn't address Duke's biggest need, then bring in a player who does...with Monroe .

[SilkyJ]

Calm down silky, I think DeCourcey is trolling.

Yes, GM will have to be a post player to succeed both at college and in the pros. He will.

I didn't intend to sound like I was freaking out. I am completely calm and think we have a very good team going into this year, which will develop into an excellent team by next year (I'm not the first to say that our NC hopes lie in the 08/09 season).

I just want a real center!

[Wander]

Also worth mentioning is the flip side of us needing a post player: we are completely loaded on the wings. We don't need any more.

[VaDukie]

What do you guys think about Lance? I think he gets left out a lot when talking about post players. He'll never be a true post presence, but I think he can do a lot of things down low in an Antonio Lang style. Anyone else agree?

[Jaymf7]

Duke DESPERATELY needs a post. If Singler is still here, Duke will have all the inside-out players we need if GM comes here. K will not, and should not, entice GM here with some asinine notion of developing how GM wants. In CIS, K will chain GM to the post and make him a multimillionaire, or GM could very well turn into another, if better, McBob. Which ain't something GM should be aiming for.

Patrick Yates

I disagree that we need a legitimate low post scoring threat to succeed. While we DO need someone who can defend the low post, Monroe certainly can fill those shoes (and will need to have that ability to get to the next level). McRoberts had that ability, most of the time.

The problem with McRoberts was not that he could not score reliably down low -- it was that he could not score reliably anywhere. No one other than Paulus could at the end of last year. If McRoberts had an outside shot, or if he was quick enough to drive on the 4s and 5s that guarded him, we would have had very little problem with his lack on inside moves. McRoberts preference to linger on the perimeter and look to make great passes did not make him a great perimeter player. I suspect (hope) that Monroe is more effective from the wings.

If we were to land Monroe next year and both Zoubek and Thomas fail to develop, I still think we could have a great season with Singler and Monroe up front. We would lack depth, but if we stayed healthy it would not be unlike the run we made in late 2001 after Boozer went down (with Battier as our primary post presence).

Our team will have offense to spare in years to come. What we need is a defensive post presence. Monroe can provide that. Of course, I'd love another great big, but if that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean that anyone needs to be chained to the post.

[SilkyJ]

I disagree that we need a legitimate low post scoring threat to succeed. While we DO need someone who can defend the low post, Monroe certainly can fill those shoes (and will need to have that ability to get to the next level). McRoberts had that ability, most of the time.

The problem with McRoberts was not that he could not score reliably down low -- it was that he could not score reliably anywhere. No one other than Paulus could at the end of last year. If McRoberts had an outside shot, or if he was quick enough to drive on the 4s and 5s that guarded him, we would have had very little problem with his lack on inside moves. McRoberts preference to linger on the perimeter and look to make great passes did not make him a great perimeter player. I suspect (hope) that Monroe is more effective from the wings.

If we were to land Monroe next year and both Zoubek and Thomas fail to develop, I still think we could have a great season with Singler and Monroe up front. We would lack depth, but if we stayed healthy it would not be unlike the run we made in late 2001 after Boozer went down (with Battier as our primary post presence).

Our team will have offense to spare in years to come. What we need is a defensive post presence. Monroe can provide that. Of course, I'd love another great big, but if that doesn't happen, it doesn't mean that anyone needs to be chained to the post.

Excellent point. I actually must revise my earlier statement now to say that we need a legit center (or post presence) on defense, but not necessarily on offense. Although they need to get it down on the boards on both ends.

And as to VaDukie's question: I do think Lance will be a good player. But he is very skinny and didn't add too much weight this summer, so he will need some help down there. I do like what he brings on offense, though.

[Wander]

I disagree that we need a legitimate low post scoring threat to succeed.

"Need" is a strong word, and I don't know what your definition of success is, but I do know that the crap about the NCAA tournament being guard-oriented is complete BS, and I also know that very, very few teams make it to the Final Four without a legitimate low post scoring threat. Having one would be very, very helpful.

[ACCBBallFan]

Toward the end of the article, Decourcy opined that Greg Monroe may be like Charlie Villenueva and take two years to hone his NBA skills in college. Wouldn't that be too bad for the coach who lands him.

[johnb]

In order to get back to the FF (and/or consistently beat Carolina), we probably need 3 or 4 future NBA players. I certainly hope that a couple of our returning guys move into that category but none are there now. Monroe, regardless of weight, height, and geographic court preference, is very likely to develop into a lottery pick, and so is Singler. Unless we think/hope that half of our team made huge strides in the offseason, we shouldn't even debate the wisdom of heavily recruiting Monroe. He doesn't have to be Shelden, he just has to be great.

[Patrick Yates]

Unfortunately, as far as the 08-09 season is concerned, the C ship has sailed, and there is a fat lady singing on the bow of said ship as it disappears into the horizon.

I agree with what most of you have said. Duke may "need" a true post player for us to seriously compete for the NC in 09, but we will not get that true post out of this years class. All the C's are spoken for, or not considering Duke. Monroe is pretty much our only option, as far as recruiting. Again, we should be a good team in 08-09 regardless, as Zoubek and Lance will be more effective in the post (if they ARE ever going to be effective it will be more evident next year, and I think it will happen, NEXT year). Of course, that depends on Henderson and Singler sticking arround, and who knows if that will happen. We currently have no reason to believe they will go pro this year, so I am working on the assumption they will be in uniform in 08-09.

But, assuming everyone sticks arround and improves, we are still one true post from being dominant in 09. That player no longer exists in the current Sr class. K has put all our eggs into the Monroe basket, be it for ill or good. Other players, who had more of a Boozer/Sheldon mindset, were not pursued. Since it is widely agreed that this is a weak class, I will not throw too many stones at K for his decision. But, he has placed all of our hopes regarding being a truly elite team (being a FF favorite as opposed to a serious contender) into us getting Monroe. Hence the reason for some of my hysteric/paranoid ranting earlier this summer.

Patrick Yates

ps: to John B above. I would argue that we currently have 3-4 future NBA players, and maybe more next year. This year, Singler and Henderson (assuming the Asthma is under control) are virtual locks to be high, if not high lottery, draft picks some day. I would not be surprised to see Nelson make a team, and the other two frosh could be NBAers after 3-4 years. Zoubs has a chance, if only because the NBA is desperate for seven footers. I would ammend your 3-4 nba players comment to 3-4 players who will be significant contributors at the NBA level, of which I see at best 3 on this year's Duke team.

[JasonEvans]

There have been some excellent points made in this thread, but the thing that keeps on being only barely touched upon is Lance and Zoubek. All we have seen from them is a frustrating freshman season. We have no idea what progress they have made since then or how much they will make this year.

Lance, at times, showed excellent defensive instincts in the post. Zoubek clearly has some prime offensive skills for a man his size. Sure, there are areas these guys need to work upon, but if we are talking about next year they will both be juniors. How many teams in the land will have 2 McDonald's All-Americans with 2 years of college experience under their belt manning the post for them?!?!

Add to that the potential/probable return of Kyle Singer, who is as skilled as any big man coming into college ball is this year.

Add to that the potential arrival of Greg Monroe, the best player in the recruiting class and a guy with the size and strength to be a major force on the inside.

Folks, it is very possible that Duke will have one of the best frontcourts in the land next season... perhaps even the best. College basketball is just not full of that many stud frontcourt guys.

The notion that we need to be looking at someone else inside? Well, it just does not make much sense to me -- especially when you consider that this class just does not have many strong post players in it.

Big men almost always take longer to develop then wings and sometimes even PGs. We have 2 prime big men who arrived on campus last season and a stud-and-a-half who has not even played a game for us. Lets give them a chance before deciding we desperately need replacements for them.

--Jason "I think the odds that either Thomas or Zoubek is a really nice post presence are very strong" Evans

[Zeb]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

[ACCBBallFan]

Well said, Jason.

I agree that other than Monroe, Duke's prospects for 2009 success are better developing ZoubLance this year, than putting a halo on a post player from a relatively weak class, the same halos BTW that were placed on lance and Brian two years ago.

People keep saying it takes 2-3 years for a big man to develop, but that pre-supposes that they actually play, not mere passage of time watching smaller players play their position.

Post is not Lance's position, but somebody has to play there when Zoubs is resting or is in foul trouble, whether that is Lance, Singler or King.

Time invested in these four guys this year pays dividends next three years, with or without Monroe.

[Johnboy]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

Having truly great post players is wonderful, but very good players supported by great wings and guards can get the job done, as Duke has proven in the past.

[JasonEvans]

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

First of all, I am not saying Zoubek or Thomas will end up as All-ACC players. I agree that mega-studs who go on to be lottery picks by their soph year almost always start out as studs as freshmen. Still, it is not at all difficult to find guys who were very good players and even NBA first rounders who did not do much as freshmen.

Step one is to remind everyone of Thomas and Zoubek's stats last year.

Lance averaged 4.0 ppg and 2.5 rpg in 14.9 mpg of play.
Brian averaged 3.1 ppg and 2.2 rpg in 7.3 minutes per game.

Just to show how common it is for a dud freshman to turn into a stud soph, here are the best ACC big men from last season who were not McJosh or Hasbro (who were highly touted coming out of high school and were expect to put up big numbers as freshmen-- unlike Zoubek and Thomas). Every single one of these other guys compare very favorably with our 2 guys who struggled a bit as freshmen.

• Ekene Ibekwe played 13.6 mpg with 4.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg as a frosh.
• Brandon Costner played just 13.8 mpg for NC State as a frosh with 2.8 ppg and 2.6 rpg. He was slightly better as a soph last season
• Ben McCauley also was a non-entity for State as a freshman with 6.9 mpg, 2.1 ppg, and 1.0 rpg.
• Kyle Visser's freshman year at Wake was a dud, 12.4 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg. In fact, he was even worse as a soph and only slightly better as a junior. He had a pretty decent senior season, though, didn't he?
• Al Thornton was perhaps the best player in the ACC last year. His freshman campaign was 7.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg, and 1.8 rpg.
• James Mays freshman year at Clemson was slightly better than the rest of the these guys, but not by a lot-- 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg. That's not all that much better than what Thomas did last season.

Are you now convinced that maybe a so-so freshman season is not all that indicative of what a big man will become?

-Jason "that was easy-- I only had to go back one year to find many, many examples" Evans

[Zeb]

Original msg was: Yes.

Then I was told it had to be 10 characters, so here's a longer version: Sir, Yes, sir!

[monkey]

I'm not sure the facts bear out your statement that bigs take longer to show their true value. The last three great post players at Duke (Shelden, Boozer and Brand) all had much more impressive freshmen seasons than Z or Lance had. While its possible Z and LT will blossom and I'm certainly rooting for them to do so, I think its more likely that they will remain on a lower trajectory than we would like.

Now that I think about it, Psycho T over in Chapel Hill is another example of a post player who showed his talent as a freshman.

Jason - could you help come up with some recent examples of bigs who were unimpressive as freshmen and developed into great college players? One that is coming to mind is Lonny Baxter, but I am coming up with a lot more counter examples than I am proof of your statement.

The guy who came to mind for me played in 31 games for the baby blue folks down the road back in 1995-96, averaging 7.5 points, 3.8 boards, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals per game - Vince Carter. By 1998, he had upped his scoring average to 15.6 ppg, 5.1 boards, first team all ACC, second team all american. While Vince's numbers were better than Lance's 4 ppg/2.5 boards, Vince's freshman season was considered a significant disappointment from a top-rated recruit

[Patrick Yates]

The guy who came to mind for me played in 31 games for the baby blue folks down the road back in 1995-96, averaging 7.5 points, 3.8 boards, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals per game - Vince Carter. By 1998, he had upped his scoring average to 15.6 ppg, 5.1 boards, first team all ACC, second team all american. While Vince's numbers were better than Lance's 4 ppg/2.5 boards, Vince's freshman season was considered a significant disappointment from a top-rated recruit

With regards to VC, you are comparing different kinds of Fruit. The point was that Posts developed after bad Fr years, not perimiter players. VC was a freakishly athletic 6-5 kid, who played PF on a OK high school team where they fed him the ball. When he got to UNC he had to adjust to a whole new position, as well as a 2 inch growth spurt that really changed him. His frosh year they tried to shoehorn him into a purely perimeter player, and his shot wasn't up to par. With Antwan and Okulaja eating up minutes in the post, and Dante jacking up 3s, VC was kind of lost.

But, again, VC was a freakishly athletic SG/SF learning essentially a new position in college. LT and BZ have nowhere, and I mean not in the same galaxy as, level of athleticism. This is not a knock, VC was one of the more athletic players to come along in recent years. He was a (slightly) better athlete than GH (who would be an excellant comparison for VC, Hope to God). LT and BZ have nothing in common with VC. They are posts, and have been for most of, if not all, their lives. They were not learning new positions.

Jason Evans said

"Ekene Ibekwe played 13.6 mpg with 4.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg as a frosh.
Brandon Costner played just 13.8 mpg for NC State as a frosh with 2.8 ppg and 2.6 rpg. He was slightly better as a soph last season
Ben McCauley also was a non-entity for State as a freshman with 6.9 mpg, 2.1 ppg, and 1.0 rpg.
Kyle Visser's freshman year at Wake was a dud, 12.4 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg. In fact, he was even worse as a soph and only slightly better as a junior. He had a pretty decent senior season, though, didn't he?
Al Thornton was perhaps the best player in the ACC last year. His freshman campaign was 7.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg, and 1.8 rpg.
James Mays freshman year at Clemson was slightly better than the rest of the these guys, but not by a lot-- 16.0 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg. That's not all that much better than what Thomas did last season."

With Thornton, see my above comments. He is more of a SF at 6-7 and much more athletic than either LT or BZ. I do not really see where they compare.

McCauly, Costner, and to a lesser extent Mays I will give you. But, all three, while playing well at various points this past season, played extensively for weak teams that had very little to no team success. Indeed, all were essentially thrown to the wolves. They developed as a result of playing extensively in games where they lost, mainly because the coaching staff had no other option. K has not been a throw them to the fire type of guy.

As for Visser, I hope not. He didn't play well until his SR year, which for BZ and LT is probably a year too late for Duke to succeed. in 09-10 we could be breaking in a new PG, and I would be shocked if BOTH KS and GH are still at Duke. One is bound to leave early, and probably both, cause KS would have 2 years as a star by then. Also, again, KV had huge numbers on a truly excerable team where he was fed minutes and shots, neither of which will happen under K. A more cynical person than me, and there aren't many of those, might suggest that KV's numbers were inflated playing on a bad team with no quality players arround him in games that were over 10 min into said game.

I hope you guys are correct re LT and BZ, but I have this recurring nightmare where they are juuuuuuuuuuust servicable enough to scare off recruits while being not quiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiite good enough for Duke to be a truly elite (as opposed to merely pretty good) in 09.

Patrick Yates