Charting Duke v. Colgate

[pfrduke]

Individuals
Nolan Smith 79-29 (+50)
Kyle Singler 63-23 (+40)
Miles Plumlee 69-33 (+36)
Kyrie Irving 67-32 (+35)
Andre Dawkins 56-30 (+26)
Ryan Kelly 44-22 (+22)
Seth Curry 54-35 (+19)
Mason Plumlee 33-20 (+13)
Tyler Thornton 35-26 (+9)
Josh Hairston 30-22 (+8)
Casey Peters 12-10 (+2)
Todd Zafirovski 8-8 (0)

Per 40 Minutes
Nolan Smith +80.0
Kyle Singler + 72.7
Miles Plumlee +60.0
Andre Dawkins +57.8
Kyrie Irving +56.0
Ryan Kelly +55.0
Mason Plumlee +40.0
Seth Curry +33.0
Tyler Thornton +27.7
Josh Hairston +26.7
Casey Peters +5.0
Todd Zafirovski 0.0

Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (19-5, x3, +14)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Kelly (22-9, x2, +13)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (10-4, x2, +6)
Irving-Thornton-Smith-Kelly-Miles (10-4, x1, +6)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (10-5, x1, +5)
Curry-Peters-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (4-0, x1, +4)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Mason (3-0, x1, +3)
Smith-Curry-Singler-Kelly-Miles (3-0, x1, +3)
Smith-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (3-0, x1, +3)
Irving-Smith-Curry-Singler-Miles (4-2, x2, +2)
Irving-Thornton-Smith-Mason-Kelly (2-0, x1, +2)
Thornton-Curry-Peters-Hairston-Zafirovski (8-8, x1, 0)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Kelly (5-6, x2, -1)
Thornton-Curry-Dawkins-Hairston-Miles (4-5, x1, -1)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Miles (2-3, x1, -1)
Thornton-Smith-Dawkins-Hairston-Mason (1-2, x1 -1)
Thornton-Curry-Peters-Hairston-Miles (0-2, x1, -2)
Irving-Curry-Dawkins-Mason-Miles (0-3, x1, -3)

[loran16]

Yeah this was a good game. Of note, we went at a really fast pace in this game...scacc hoops has us at a pace of 78.6 possessions, though on my count of the espn box score I had 82.4 possessions (one factor in the difference, SCACC counted 3 extra TEAM offensive boards. ESPN did not. So that should give us a consensus of roughly 79 possessions).

That's of course, crazy fast, and yet even so we were extremely efficient. Colgate was a poor team, but still...this team just burns through these cruddy teams, and it still seems like we're not even tapping into our full potential for 40 minutes (or even 30 minutes). Scary.

[Newton_14]

Thanks Pfrduke. Nice work. The numbers are interesting. Andre is on fire. I really hope he can sustain this level of play when the competition stiffens. If both he and Kelly can play at this level against the good teams, this team is going to be a nightmare to deal with.

Despite the constant complaints, Miles continues to be strong in the +/- numbers. I was at the game last night with killer seats. Right on the rail behind the Crazies. I watched Miles closely during the game. His first few times in, he was in the funk. Did not do anything wrong though (other than bringing the ball low on a post attempt) , and played good defense. But he just did not seem to be fully "with it" mentally.

After the alley-oop reverse dunk, his body language totally changed. He got more pep in his step, ran the floor better, rebounded better and just seemed like a different player. He started posting up more (he never really attempted this prior to that) and had the really sweet jumphook off the glass.

Miles can play so much better than he currently is though. He just needs to channel the good energy and stay focused mentally. The skill level is there.

[Bob Green]

Despite the constant complaints, Miles continues to be strong in the +/- numbers.

Miles is channeling his early season Zoubek by putting up +/- numbers directly proportional to the number of complaints about his play posted on DBR. A line-up I am quickly becoming fond of is: Irving, Smith, Dawkins, Singler, Miles Plumlee, which is currently +18.

Princeton
Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (2-2, 1x, 0)

Miami (OH)
Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (6-2, x1, +4)

Colgate:
Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Irving-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (19-5, x3, +14)

[niveklaen]

pfrduke,

Is there a thread/link where you will/are posting the cumulative +/- numbers? I loved looking at those last year.

[pfrduke]

The cumulative numbers are now up, stickied to the top of the forum.

[Bob Green]

A line-up I am quickly becoming fond of is: Irving, Smith, Dawkins, Singler, Miles Plumlee, which is currently +18.

With the cumulative +/- stats now posted, we see this is our best line-up to date.

[InSpades]

With the cumulative +/- stats now posted, we see this is our best line-up to date.

I actually wondered if Dawkins might be part of the reason Miles doesn't start. As Miles at center is a good pairing with Dawkins at small forward (and they were the 1st off the bench last night). It gives Duke more of a true interior player than if they brought in Kelly and Dawkins at the same time to spell the Plumlees.

[Delaware]

I actually wondered if Dawkins might be part of the reason Miles doesn't start. As Miles at center is a good pairing with Dawkins at small forward (and they were the 1st off the bench last night). It gives Duke more of a true interior player than if they brought in Kelly and Dawkins at the same time to spell the Plumlees.

This is what I was thinking as well. I think Kelly-Mason are a better hi-low passing combo and work well together and then bringing Miles and Dawkins in allows Miles and Kyle to work together down low while Dawkins is big enough to play and guard the opponents "3".

I see Curry mostly playing with Kyle and one of either Irving or Smith in the backcourt along with two of the three bigs (Miles, Mason, Kelly) in the game.

I think those linups give us the most balance defensively.

[Kedsy]

After the alley-oop reverse dunk, his body language totally changed. He got more pep in his step, ran the floor better, rebounded better and just seemed like a different player. He started posting up more (he never really attempted this prior to that) and had the really sweet jumphook off the glass.

I noticed this as well (although I was watching ESPN3 rather than having sweet seats in Cameron). It's completely consistent with what we saw from Miles (and from Mason) last year -- once they get their first alley-oop slam they start playing better in all aspects of the game. I wonder if it would be worth it to make a concerted effort to get each of them an alley-oop dunk in the first few minutes of every game?

I see Curry mostly playing with Kyle and one of either Irving or Smith in the backcourt along with two of the three bigs (Miles, Mason, Kelly) in the game.

I haven't done any actual analysis of this, but so far it seems to me Seth and Andre are almost always in the game together. It's just an impression I have, but if I'm right I assume it's intentional on K's part.

[COYS]

With the cumulative +/- stats now posted, we see this is our best line-up to date.

This is interesting because I really would not have seen this lineup coming in the preseason. However, it really does blend some of the best aspects of the team. It gives us three explosive scoring guards without sacrificing as much rebounding/defense as a lineup with the smaller Seth could while it also allows our strongest interior player full reign in the paint. With only Miles in the game, it opens up the floor a bit for Singler, as well, who can shoot, drive, or dish from the wing on offense, but rebound like a big guy on the defensive end. I'm sure the lineups will shift over time, but the Zoubek-like +/- stats for Miles are definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Delaware]

I haven't done any actual analysis of this, but so far it seems to me Seth and Andre are almost always in the game together. It's just an impression I have, but if I'm right I assume it's intentional on K's part.

I think you're right that they have played together a bunch up until now, although I think many of those moments have been late in blowout games when Kyle and Nolan have been rested. I'm simply projecting that going forward in tight games where defense is more of a premium we will see al lot of these three lineups:

Kyrie, Nolan, Singler and two of the three bigs (obvious)
Kyrie or Nolan, Curry, Singler and two of the three bigs
Kyrie, Nolan, Dawkins, Singler and one of the three bigs

Those size combinations will be able to guard all positions on most of the good teams we will see and I think a line up with:
Kyrie, Nolan, Curry and two others does not give us enough size in the backcourt.

Coach K is obviously looking at a lot of combinations and knows best... whatever he does works for me.

[Kedsy]

Those size combinations will be able to guard all positions on most of the good teams we will see and I think a line up with:
Kyrie, Nolan, Curry and two others does not give us enough size in the backcourt.

I completely agree with this. However, the reason I brought up the pairing of Seth and Andre is I've noticed they have often subbed in together, in either a lineup of:

Nolan (or Kyrie), Seth, Andre, Kyle, and a big; or
Nolan (or Kyrie), Seth, Andre, and two bigs

The reason I think this is cool is this lineup gives us a completely different offensive look than the starting lineup of Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, and two bigs. Instead of being worried about on-ball screens and getting beaten one-on-one, all of a sudden the defense has to deal with sharpshooters running around off-ball screens. Instead of laying back to stop penetration, the defense has to play tight to stop long shots. It keeps the opposing defense off-balance, doesn't let them get into a rhythm, and I think that's a good thing.

[Delaware]

I completely agree with this. However, the reason I brought up the pairing of Seth and Andre is I've noticed they have often subbed in together, in either a lineup of:

Nolan (or Kyrie), Seth, Andre, Kyle, and a big; or
Nolan (or Kyrie), Seth, Andre, and two bigs

The reason I think this is cool is this lineup gives us a completely different offensive look than the starting lineup of Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, and two bigs. Instead of being worried about on-ball screens and getting beaten one-on-one, all of a sudden the defense has to deal with sharpshooters running around off-ball screens. Instead of laying back to stop penetration, the defense has to play tight to stop long shots. It keeps the opposing defense off-balance, doesn't let them get into a rhythm, and I think that's a good thing.

Offensively, you are correct... it is a different look for the opposition... and we may see it some. But if history is any indicator, K always tends toward his best defensive units.

The great thing about this team... there are so many combinations depending on the opponent, game situation, foul trouble or (knock wood) injuries.

[Kedsy]

Offensively, you are correct... it is a different look for the opposition... and we may see it some. But if history is any indicator, K always tends toward his best defensive units.

Yes, I agree, but I don't think Andre at the 3 is necessarily a defensive liability. And I'm pretty sure K agrees because Andre has played almost exclusively at the 3 this year. Seth at the 3 is a different story, which is why I agree with you that we won't see the Kyrie/Nolan/Seth combination so often.