Prediction: Duke 83 to 68
After four games, Marquette has averaged fewer three attempts (17.5%) than only 3 teams in all of D-1! This game could be a good test of Duke’s interior defense.
Prediction: Duke 83 to 68
That's not a bad prediction, I would say about a 10-17 pt Duke win.
Marquette doesn't impress me this year. I think they will be good again next year when Jamil Wilson is eligible then they'll have him, Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue, and for their sake, a slimmer Davante Gardner. This year they will go through some tough games.
I can't believe they shoot so little from behinf the arc. Between Butler, Johnson-Odom, Buycks, and Blue, they should shoot more. I think we will wear out Otule and certainly Gardner making their middle exposed. I don't necessarily expect a huge game from the Plumlee's, I just expect us to shoot a high % and put up some points. I would expect Mason and Miles to be rather productive though. There should be plenty of rebounding opportunites and getting out to run.
I think Im actually more excited for the Gonzaga/KSU game.
We have to bump this to the top of the page guys. I love talking about how terrible Kerolina is as much as the next guy, but we have a big game coming up tomorrow. Lets put the focus on our team, not Kerolina. I mean, does it really surprise you they are this bad?
As much fun as it was seeing my adopted hometown team Vandy beat up the Heels, I tend to agree with this. In the game against Marquette, I'll be curious to see a few things.
1) Is our early season defense the result of poor competition or a complete team commitment to defend that rivals last year's squad?
2) Kyrie has been able to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants to in the first three games (the 2 fouls in 2 minutes notwithstanding). Will his quickness and skill still be as dominating against teams with better overall athleticism? How will he handle tough, half court games? Things certainly look good as Kyrie seems equally capable of playing at 5 and 500 mph, but now we'll get to see it against tough competition.
3) When the going gets tough, can our bigs get going? We'll really get to see how much improvement our three returning front court players have made over the next few games. Personally, i think that the defensive value Miles provides that has been reflected in his +/- stats will start to show a little more.
4) How does the rotation start to shake out? Will Josh and Tyler remain big parts of the rotation when the games get close? It seems that Jumbo's question of who would be the first big off the bench has been emphatically answered in Kelly's favor. How will Josh's role develop?
5) Will the Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, Kyle, Miles lineup continue to be our most effective lineup? Funny how no one saw this lineup as one of our strongest in the preseason (myself included, of course).
These are just a few things. I'll also keep an eye on our FTA/FGA ratio. It's been much better the past two games. Kyrie's quickness alone seems to force a lot of fouls. I want to make sure that Kyle and Nolan don't become too terribly jump shot prone as to limit their chances to get easy points at the stripe and force the other team into the bonus/foul trouble.
It surprises me a little bit, but I agree, let's focus on our guys for the next few days as we look to win our first championship of the year. Building a championship mentality is important for the development of the new guys like Kyrie and Seth and guys with a bigger role this year like the MPs, Dre and Ryan.
Kyle and Nolan, well I'm not too worried about their ability to play like champions
I just read the article by Jerry Karpowicz on the DBR front page. If he is right about Marquette's lineup, it will be interesting to see how coach K plans to start the game. We may see Andre get the start with Kyrie, Nolan, Kyle, and a big to match their smaller lineup, or possibly coach K will go with a larger lineup to see if our bigs can exploit the middle of their defense, considering that they are supposed to be thin on the inside. Obviously Kyle can guard one of their guards if K chooses to go big. Marquette seems to be doing well with the rebounds and 3 point shooting. This should give our guys a real test moving forward.
From the Karpowicz article:
Oh, I get it. Freshman Vander Blue (love the name) gets to guard Kyle Singler, or else Mason, Ryan or Miles. I believe there will be some post-up sets in the game plan for tonight. Or maybe senior Buycks [sic] will get the call.Williams likely will start three guards — Raleigh native Darius Johnson-Odom (6-foot-2 junior), Dwight Buycks (6-3 senior) and Vander Blue (6-4 freshman). Jimmy Butler (6-7 senior) and Chris Otule (6-11 sophomore) start in the front court.
Somehow, I don't think Duke will go small for the first part of the game. And whether Duke plays an atypically small lineup depends on how Kyle handles Vida -- I mean Vander -- Blue.
sagegrouse
I agree. Coach Krzyzewski will not adjust our starters to counter Marquette, but rather look to force Marquette Coach Buzz Williams to adjust to Duke. A standard practice in coaching is to force the other guy to adjust to your game.
What's nice about this year's Duke team is we have the versatility to force our opponent to have to adjust multiple times.
Bob Green
I also don't anticipate that we will suffer a huge disadvantage with our large lineup. Marquette doesn't launch a lot of threes so the smaller Marquette players will have to beat Mason and Ryan inside the arc, where their length and mobility relative to most 6-10/6-11 guys will make up for a lot. In the meantime, Kyrie, Nolan, and Singler probably have the advantage on both ends of the floor.
I will be interested to see, however, if the Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, Kyle, Miles lineup continues to be as effective as it has been to date.
In reading the Jerry Karpowicz preview, the name Jim McIlvaine jumped off the page. He's in his 6th season as the Marquette radio analyst, but Duke fans should think back to March 1994 for his most shining moment. Fresh of being named NABC Defensive Player of the year, McIlvaine prepared to face Duke and 1992/3 NABC Defensive Player of the year Grant Hill in the Sweet 16. I don't know that he ever said so publicly, but I am sure Grant was a little peeved to not earn the award back-to-back. I can't remember when in the game it happened, but Hill unleashed a furious, posterizing slam right on top of McIlvaine's 7'1" head. As he ran back up court, Hill, very uncharacteristically, pounded his chest a few times. It was glorious.
I thought you asked some good questions and will give my two cents, since I am getting very excited for the next couple of nights.
1.) I think the team's early season defense has been very good so far and the commitment outstanding for long periods of time even though the score may have been out of reach. I expect Marquette will get much more penetration than any team so far and this will be a great test to see how well our rotations are working against a better offensive team.
2.) This is an interesting question for the rest of the year. Will Kyrie be able to get in the lane on anyone all year long, or will he have some challenges against better defensive squads? How will his decision making be against better college teams?
3.) I look forward to seeing how our bigs defend against a team that will look to attack the rim. My impression is that their positioning has been better so far this year. How will they fare in a faster game against a quicker opponent? I expect they will also have to defend more in the post than they have so far.
4.) It sounded like from Watzone's interview with coach K after the last game, that coach expects the rotation to be more of an 8 man rotation than a 10 man rotation in close games to get Kyle and Nolan more minutes. I interpreted that to mean that Tyler and Josh may get limited minutes in close games.
5.) I expect the team will have different line-ups that will be successful against different line-ups and I still expect 2 bigs, with Kyle at the 3 to be the team's best defensive team, with Andre at the 3 and Kyle at the 4 also being successful.
From K's quotes after (I believe it was) the last game, he indicated that the starting line-up will change, but he expected the back court to be consistent with Kyrie, Nolan and Kyle starting with the frontcourt changing with Miles, Mason and Ryan at least for now. I don't expect the top ranked team in the country to change their starting line-up to match another team's at this point, though this certainly will happen during games. This may be a game where Andre gets a lot of minutes at the 3 to put a smaller, quick line-up in the game, though coach may want to see how Marquette will defend our bigs inside, assuming Ryan, Mason, and Miles move their feet well enough against Marquette's biggest players. Should be fun.
The front court players should get a real test this evening. Marquette has looked to attack the rim on their offensive possessions. A layup or a trip to the charity stripe is their goal.
Mason, Ryan, and Miles will have to move their feet, stop reaching, and use their size advantage when the wings penetrate. Josh could get some early time, at the four, if these guys get in foul trouble.
Final Score prediction:
Duke 89 Marquette 80
Well said! I agree wholeheartedly. Miles' steady development is a real key to our season, his defense, rebounding, footwork, and overall physical presence are unique on the team. Playing the '5' is a role suited only to him really, and his progress will parallel the progress of our very advanced team of guards and wings. Perhaps even more importantly next year he will be our only senior and eldest brother of two teammates. Establishing a leadership presence would be doubly beneficial to the team.
I actually think that this plays well into Duke's strengths. While Duke defends the three well, the guards and bigs are also great at making entry passes difficult. It will be good to see if they are as successful at cutting off passing lanes against more competent opponents. I especially would like to see if the bigs can avoid fouling while playing suffocating defense.
For what it's worth, Duke is a 12 point favorite in Vegas (of course, we all know how the last game against Marquette went). Based on the over/under (147), Vegas is basically predicting a scote of 79.5 to 67.5, which sounds reasonable... aside from the fractional points.
Given what was stated in the pre-game about Marquette drawing lots of fouls, it will be interesting to see how Mason and Miles are able to be effective by staying on the floor. I really would like to see them positioned better for the boards in this one. Sounds like there will be a lot of shots taken given the pace.
"Just be you. You is Enough."
Marquette coach Buzz Williams says, "I think that they're good enough to be an above-.500 team in the NBA". Probably overblowing things, but I like his attitude.
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