Right. The logjam isn't going to affect Parker's or Randle's decision. The more likely threat is that someone else will get disgruntled with a lack of PT and consider transferring. But that's the price of poker these days. Better to have too much talent than not enough.
What will be interesting is to see what Hood's decision does to the recruits who we've offered. We have 3 scholarships available for 2013-2014 (Cook, Thornton, Sulaimon, Dawkins, Jones, Hood, Murphy, Jefferson, Hairston, Marshall are the 10 on scholarship). So assuming that we'd hold offers for Parker and Randle, that leaves only one other available spot. And on top of that, anyone coming in would be almost certainly looking at VERY limited minutes for a couple of years. For a top-50 recruit, that might not be too appealing. We'll see how it plays out.
At this point, I think getting Randle would be the priority. But what if Nichols commits? And what if Nichols and a wing like Wainright or Ojeleye commit? That takes one of Parker or Randle off the table.
Again, first world problems. And we're talking about guys committing to be potentially the 10th/11th man in 2013-2014.
I, too, would make that distinction. And I'd probably list Hood as the backup at both SG and SF, though I get that it's just a 1st team/2nd team thing. But I'd guess the de facto rotation would be Sulaimon, Murphy, and Hood in that 3 man rotation. Perhaps with some Sulaimon at PG and Parker at SF mixed in.
I agree that these are first world problems. If Duke does not get another recruit for 2013, the 2013-14 team looks like a deep, well-rounded team. I also agree that it may be difficult to get a top-50 recruit who would (hopefully, if Parker and or Randle were to come to Duke) be a potential 12th/13th man. In the ideal first world scenario, I would think the staff would take another commitment from Wainwright, Ojeleye or Nichols, hope they would be ok with a four year career where they would be a major contributor as an upperclassman and wait on Parker and Randle, much like they did with Shabazz and T. Parker last year.
“Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”
In addition to removing Cat Barber from the 2013 list, I think it's safe to take James Young off as well. Per multiple tweets from various recruiting insiders, Young has not only narrowed the list to approximately five schools (and we're not one of them) but appears to be a near-lock for Kentucky. Sounds like a done deal to me.
Julius Randle highlights
Reminds me of Blake Griffin.
Seems like Duke is in contention for Randle, just based on reading recruiting info.
Informative article and highlight video discussing SG Robert Hubbs (ranked #21 by scout and #11 by rivals) and perhaps a "package deal" with his teamate Austin Nichols. Apparently, both Nichols and Hubbs grew up Duke fans.
LINK:http://d1basketballrecruiting.com/20...-or-tennessee/
Again, my hypothetical lineup was illustrative of the potential NBA level talent we possibly may have in 2014, not a comprehensive "player X's skill set is better at the 2, but player Y is a 9th year senior, so he obviously would start", hence why I also left off Hairston. Matt, if on nothing more than the Old NBA "potential and high ceilng" thought process, would probably be drafted while Dawkins, at this point, probably would not.
Also, while Jones would be a 1st year freshman, there is no reason to believe he couldn't start over 5th year Dawkins if he shows defensive prowess, an ability to drive to the basket and/or pass to the open man. Dawkins, in his 3 years at Duke, hasn't shown an ability to contribute much other than scoring in huge bunches for 1 half out of every 3-4 games(understanding that w/o one of those games against Baylor, we may not have won the 2010 NC).
Now that may change with a year off, and I truly hope it does. I would love nothing more than for Andre to shine his senior year, win some hardware, and get drafted in the 1st round.
And again, I don't understand what makes you think a freshman Matt Jones, who reportedly has a beautiful outside shot but I haven't heard any rumors of "defensive prowess" or an "ability to drive the basket and/or pass to the open man," will be better than Andre Dawkins, who definitely has a beautiful outside shot, in any facet of the game. I have no idea whether Matt will ultimately be more of an NBA prospect than Andre, but I can't imagine you do either. I haven't seen nor heard any evidence that Matt is more likely to be drafted than Andre.
To me this seems like a clear case of wishing someone is great because you haven't seen otherwise, versus underselling someone because you've seen his flaws. Assuming Andre Dawkins comes back to be a fifth year senior, I'd be absolutely shocked if he doesn't play more minutes than freshman Matt Jones. And that's not dissing Matt, it's just trying to be realistic instead of wishful thinking.
I agree with your overall point and don't have many expectations for Jones in his first year or two, but FWIW, he is developing a reputation for playing good defense in the circuit. Here's a quote from his AAU coach, on why he didn't put Julius Randle on Jabari Parker when their teams went head-to-head:
Matt had 19 and 8 in the game while holding Jabari to 14 (6-14 FG) and 5."I know they wanted us to have Julius guard Jabari but why would I do that when Matthew Jones is our best defender?" Pospichal said. "Let someone else lock up with Jabari and let Julius win the game for us. That's just what he did."
Methinks that a part of the reason for this is Matt's early commitment. Seems like guys who verbal early in the process tend to get less attention than others, for better or worse. On one hand, it has likely allowed Matt to focus on improving his game without the scrutiny. But on the other hand, he kind of is stuck with that reputation he had when he committed last summer.
To be honest, he didn't look particularly dynamic on either end when I saw him play a year or so ago, but supposedly he's really improved and expanded his game since then. Also doesn't hurt that he's bulked up and grown to 6'5 with a 6'7 'span.
I'm not sure I see him getting many rotation minutes as a freshman with Sulaimon, Hood and Murphy (and possibly Dawkins, another 2013 recruit and/or a few minutes from Thornton off the ball) to compete with - and I'm not sure how much it has to do with this NBA-potential debate - but I came across the article a while ago and thought it was worth passing on.
LINK
“Before this, I called him and talked to him and said, ‘So, will I see you during these games?’ ” elite recruit Marcus Lee told SportsNet New York on Friday. “He was like, ‘No, because I’m still coaching the USA.’ And I just froze. I’m like, ‘He just got so much cooler.’ ”
Actually, during the telecast a couple days ago from Vegas of the Donican game, the announcers were going on about a 16-year-old on the Dominican team and how he is already rated one of the top few in the class of 2015 I think, and pointed out that Calipari , who is coaching the Dominican team, is all over him. Then, almost to qualify that statement, they started pointing out along the lines of, "But of course Coach K is ALSO taking advantage of his position with team USA to speak with all of the campers who were in town this week and who interacted with team USA." Somewhwere in this exchange I think one of the announcers threw in a funny compliment about K and Calipari, "Boy, these guys don't miss a trick do they?!"
Aside, there was an elite prospects camp in Vegas at the same time as the Team USA practices and many of the top 50 class of 2013 kids were in attendance. And of course the campers were enabled to interact with the Team USA players, and I've no doubt but that K and staff made sure to take full advantage. That glass is solidly HALF FULL re coaching the USA teams!
I'm not sure if this is a good or bad thing. Getting both would leave only one scholarship available for Parker or Randle, barring an unexpected early entry or transfer. Granted, neither Parker nor Randle are in any way a sure get, but it would be tough to eliminate the possibility of getting both.