Relative productivity of "big" and "small" lineups

[Kedsy]

This was a solid team loss, so I guess it's no surprise that both big and small lineups were relatively equally ineffective.

UNC 2
------
Kyle at 3: 28 minutes; -10 (-0.357 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 0 minutes; 0 (0.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 12 minutes; -4 (-0.333 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH UNC 2 GAME (31 games)
------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 673 minutes; +279 (+0.415 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 167 minutes; +10 (+0.060 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 393 minutes; +234 (+0.595 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 7 minutes; +2 (+0.286 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH UNC 2 GAME (31 games)
-------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 21.71 minutes; +9.00 (+0.415 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.39 minutes; +0.32 (+0.060 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 12.68 minutes; +7.55 (+0.595 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.23 minutes; +0.06 (+0.286 pdpm)

[Kedsy]

The first two times we played Maryland, the small lineup played 19 and 15 minutes, but in the crunch time of the tournament, we only went small for 4 minutes. Not sure why Coach K diverged from his earlier strategy. I suppose if Mason is playing well enough to stay on the floor for 38 minutes, we're going to be big most of the time with Miles and Ryan also playing as well as they did against Maryland.

MARYLAND ACCT
----------------
Kyle at 3: 35 minutes; +11 (+0.314 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 1 minutes; 0 (0.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 4 minutes; +5 (+1.250 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH MARYLAND ACCT GAME (32 games)
----------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 708 minutes; +290 (+0.410 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 168 minutes; +10 (+0.060 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 397 minutes; +239 (+0.602 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 7 minutes; +2 (+0.286 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH MARYLAND ACCT GAME (32 games)
-----------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 22.13 minutes; +9.06 (+0.410 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.25 minutes; +0.31 (+0.060 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 12.41 minutes; +7.47 (+0.602 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.22 minutes; +0.06 (+0.286 pdpm)

[Kedsy]

Similar minute distribution to the first Virginia Tech game. Fortunately a better result this time.

VIRGINIA TECH ACCT
--------------------
Kyle at 3: 30 minutes; +8 (+0.267 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 1 minutes; -1 (-1.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 9 minutes; +7 (+0.778 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH VA TECH ACCT GAME (33 games)
--------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 738 minutes; +298 (+0.404 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 169 minutes; +9 (+0.053 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 406 minutes; +246 (+0.606 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 7 minutes; +2 (+0.286 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH VA TECH ACCT GAME (33 games)
---------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 22.36 minutes; +9.03 (+0.404 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.12 minutes; +0.27 (+0.053 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 12.30 minutes; +7.45 (+0.606 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.21 minutes; +0.06 (+0.286 pdpm)

[Kedsy]

After playing 10 minutes in the first UNC game and 12 minutes in the 2nd UNC game, the "small" lineup played zero minutes this time. That's right, Kyle did not play the "4" at all in the scintillating smackdown of our arch rivals in the ACC tournament. We were wondering what wrinkle Coach K would give us in the ACCT, and personally I think this qualifies. I'm a little shocked that the small lineup couldn't get on the floor at all.

Overall in the ACC tournament, the small lineup played 13 minutes to the big lineup's 104. Despite the small lineup being more effective when it's on the court during the regular season, Coach K has clearly elected to go with the big lineup and he's been rewarded with the team playing its best basketball. Who'd have guessed?

Of course, if Kyrie's back then it all goes out the window. Against Marquette, Kansas State, and Michigan State, our small lineup averaged nearly 23 minutes a game, more than twice what the small lineup has played since Kyrie was injured (11 minutes a game). Of course that was with Andre playing 23.1 minutes per game while Seth was only playing 17.6 minutes per game, which is important because it was Andre and not Seth who was primarily the third guard in the "small" lineup. Will Seth lose minutes to Andre because of Kyrie's return? Hard to see that the way Seth has been playing. But if he doesn't, it's also hard to see Coach K employing a Nolan/Kyrie/Seth lineup and disrupting our defense as well as we played D in the ACCT.

All in all, a very interesting question ancillary to Kyrie's return.


UNC ACCT
----------
Kyle at 3: 39 minutes; +17 (+0.436 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 1 minutes; 0 (0.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 0 minutes; 0 (0.000 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH UNC ACCT GAME (34 games)
---------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 777 minutes; +315 (+0.405 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 170 minutes; +9 (+0.053 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 406 minutes; +246 (+0.606 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 7 minutes; +2 (+0.286 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH UNC ACCT GAME (34 games)
----------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 22.85 minutes; +9.26 (+0.405 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.00 minutes; +0.26 (+0.053 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 11.94 minutes; +7.24 (+0.606 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.21 minutes; +0.06 (+0.286 pdpm)

[MChambers]

After playing 10 minutes in the first UNC game and 12 minutes in the 2nd UNC game, the "small" lineup played zero minutes this time. That's right, Kyle did not play the "4" at all in the scintillating smackdown of our arch rivals in the ACC tournament. We were wondering what wrinkle Coach K would give us in the ACCT, and personally I think this qualifies. I'm a little shocked that the small lineup couldn't get on the floor at all.

Overall in the ACC tournament, the small lineup played 13 minutes to the big lineup's 104. Despite the small lineup being more effective when it's on the court during the regular season, Coach K has clearly elected to go with the big lineup and he's been rewarded with the team playing its best basketball. Who'd have guessed?

Of course, if Kyrie's back then it all goes out the window. Against Marquette, Kansas State, and Michigan State, our small lineup averaged nearly 23 minutes a game, more than twice what the small lineup has played since Kyrie was injured (11 minutes a game). Of course that was with Andre playing 23.1 minutes per game while Seth was only playing 17.6 minutes per game, which is important because it was Andre and not Seth who was primarily the third guard in the "small" lineup. Will Seth lose minutes to Andre because of Kyrie's return? Hard to see that the way Seth has been playing. But if he doesn't, it's also hard to see Coach K employing a Nolan/Kyrie/Seth lineup and disrupting our defense as well as we played D in the ACCT.

All in all, a very interesting question ancillary to Kyrie's return.


UNC ACCT
----------
Kyle at 3: 39 minutes; +17 (+0.436 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 1 minutes; 0 (0.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 0 minutes; 0 (0.000 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH UNC ACCT GAME (34 games)
---------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 777 minutes; +315 (+0.405 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 170 minutes; +9 (+0.053 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 406 minutes; +246 (+0.606 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 7 minutes; +2 (+0.286 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH UNC ACCT GAME (34 games)
----------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 22.85 minutes; +9.26 (+0.405 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.00 minutes; +0.26 (+0.053 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 11.94 minutes; +7.24 (+0.606 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.21 minutes; +0.06 (+0.286 pdpm)

Whether we go small (Dawkins as a 3) or really small (Curry, Smith, and Irving) may depend a lot on the matchups. Since we don't know who we'll be playing, it's very hard to predict. I doubt we'll see the really small lineup against Hampton, because I think when Irving is in the game the first emphasis will be having him read integrated into our primary lineup.

If we beat Hampton, and play Michigan or Tennessee, there might be occasions where having Irving on the floor would be very helpful. For example, I think it would be fun to attack a 1-3-1 zone with both Smith and Irving on the floor.

[Kedsy]

If we beat Hampton, and play Michigan or Tennessee, there might be occasions where having Irving on the floor would be very helpful. For example, I think it would be fun to attack a 1-3-1 zone with both Smith and Irving on the floor.

I fully expect that most of the time Kyrie is on the floor, Nolan will also be playing. What I don't expect is Seth to be a third guard very much with Kyrie and Nolan.

Put another way, I know several people have suggested Kyrie will come in to give Nolan a rest, but I disagree. I think Kyrie will sub in for Seth. And then, when Coach K decides to go small, the third guard will be Andre, as it has been for pretty much the entire year.

[jv001]

After playing 10 minutes in the first UNC game and 12 minutes in the 2nd UNC game, the "small" lineup played zero minutes this time. That's right, Kyle did not play the "4" at all in the scintillating smackdown of our arch rivals in the ACC tournament. We were wondering what wrinkle Coach K would give us in the ACCT, and personally I think this qualifies. I'm a little shocked that the small lineup couldn't get on the floor at all.


Of course, if Kyrie's back then it all goes out the window. Against Marquette, Kansas State, and Michigan State, our small lineup averaged nearly 23 minutes a game, more than twice what the small lineup has played since Kyrie was injured (11 minutes a game). Of course that was with Andre playing 23.1 minutes per game while Seth was only playing 17.6 minutes per game, which is important because it was Andre and not Seth who was primarily the third guard in the "small" lineup. Will Seth lose minutes to Andre because of Kyrie's return? Hard to see that the way Seth has been playing. But if he doesn't, it's also hard to see Coach K employing a Nolan/Kyrie/Seth lineup and disrupting our defense as well as we played D in the ACCT.
All in all, a very interesting question ancillary to Kyrie's return.

Great points Kedsy. If Kyrie is close to normal and plays defense as he did in the first 8 games someone will certainly lose some minutes. I agree with you it probably won't be Mason, Miles and even Ryan. Against unc our defense was terrific with that big lineup. It's going to be interesting to see how Coach K gets Kyrie back into the rotation. Go Duke!

[Kedsy]

Nothing like playing the 227th best team in the country to spruce up your stats. Kyrie played 20 minutes, but the small lineup still made only a cameo (4 minute) appearance, meaning that in four post-season games so far (the ACCT plus Hampton), the small lineup had yet to see even double-digit minutes (an average of 4.25 minutes per game).

Does that mean Coach K has given up on the small lineup? Well, I might have answered that question differently before the Michigan game (see next post).

HAMPTON NCCAT
-----------------
Kyle at 3: 20 minutes; +30 (+1.500 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 16 minutes; +11 (0.688 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 4 minutes; +1 (+0.250 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH HAMPTON NCCAT GAME (35 games)
----------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 797 minutes; +345 (+0.433 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 186 minutes; +20 (+0.108 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 410 minutes; +247 (+0.602 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 7 minutes; +2 (+0.286 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH HAMPTON NCCAT GAME (35 games)
-----------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 22.77 minutes; +9.86 (+0.433 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.31 minutes; +0.57 (+0.108 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 11.71 minutes; +7.06 (+0.602 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.20 minutes; +0.06 (+0.286 pdpm)

[Kedsy]

The return of the small lineup came big-time in the Michigan game. We even got to see a little of "Kyle and the shrimps," plus three and a half minutes of "Ryan and the shrimps" (and note I included "Ryan and the shrimps" in the "Kyle at 5" category rather than the "Kyle on bench" category). But what I'm not sure about is why go small now?

In recent games we'd been sticking with the big lineup even against smaller, quicker teams, but obviously something about Michigan prompted K to go very small for much of the second half. Was it something about Kyrie? Was it the 1-3-1 zone? Was there an issue with the Plumlees? I admit I have no idea. So I also can't make an intelligent prediction whether this is the direction we'll be taking in the Arizona game or beyond. And as long as we keep winning, I suppose I don't care all that much...

MICHIGAN NCCAT
-----------------
Kyle at 3: 17 minutes; +1 (+0.059 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 1 minutes; -2 (-2.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 17 minutes; +6 (+0.353 pdpm)
Kyle at 5/only one big: 5 minutes; -3 (-0.600 pdpm)


TOTALS THROUGH MICHIGAN NCCAT GAME (36 games)
----------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 814 minutes; +346 (+0.425 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 187 minutes; +18 (+0.096 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 427 minutes; +253 (+0.593 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 12 minutes; -1 (-0.083 pdpm)


AVERAGE THROUGH MICHIGAN NCCAT GAME (36 games)
-----------------------------------------------------
Kyle at 3: 22.61 minutes; +9.61 (+0.425 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 5.19 minutes; +0.50 (+0.096 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 11.86 minutes; +7.03 (+0.593 pdpm)
Kyle at 5: 0.33 minutes; -0.03 (-0.083 pdpm)

[superdave]

MICHIGAN NCCAT
-----------------
Kyle at 3: 17 minutes; +1 (+0.059 point differential per minute)
Kyle on bench: 1 minutes; -2 (-2.000 pdpm)
Kyle at 4: 17 minutes; +6 (+0.353 pdpm)
Kyle at 5/only one big: 5 minutes; -3 (-0.600 pdpm)

Kedsy - I think your minutes may be off here. Kyle sat from the sub 10:00 mark to sub 6:00 mark I believe. I think he was at 35-36 minutes on the game. (or are you adding Kyle at 5 and Ryan at 5 with 4 guards together?)

I think Coach K's strategy with Ryan in the game was to get another shooter on the floor. Michigan was not a good enough rebounding team to make us pay for it, but I still feel like we missed some shot blocking and scariness that embiggened (Simpson's reference!) UM to drive the lane at will.

While we had two skilled drivers - Nolan/Kyrie - they just didnt seem to attack enough. Perhaps Kyrie would with more game experience. I would have thought the game plan would be to push tempo and attack the lane in the half court. Either way, it was frustrating to watch. Let's hope we are get out and attack from the start on Thursday.

[Kedsy]

(and note I included "Ryan and the shrimps" in the "Kyle at 5" category rather than the "Kyle on bench" category).

Kedsy - I think your minutes may be off here. Kyle sat from the sub 10:00 mark to sub 6:00 mark I believe. I think he was at 35-36 minutes on the game. (or are you adding Kyle at 5 and Ryan at 5 with 4 guards together?)

I don't think my minutes are off, because while you are right that Kyle sat from the 9:20 mark to the 5:54 mark, you are also right that I added "Kyle at the 5" and "Ryan at 5 with four guards" together, in the "Kyle at the 5" category. It seems to me that anybody "and the shrimps" should be in that ultra-small grouping.