I am not sure I saw this posted anywhere so I'll add it here:
A few weeks ago, Seth Davis debunked the strength of schedule and non conference argument for title winners.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...bag/index.html
"The average strength of schedule rank of the last 17 NCAA champions was 28.1, ranging from 3 to 66. The average nonconference strength of schedule rank was 128.4, ranging from 35 to 253. Both averages were lower than I expected, but the range is what really disproves the theory. Some teams have won taking on all comers, while others have sailed through a regular season virtually unchallenged and still ended up hoisting the big trophy."
I think it's better to look at a fact that SI's Luke Winn touts, that a great predictor of who can win the title comes from teams that are Top 15 in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. As of today, those teams are:
Duke - 5th in Adjusted offensive, 3rd in adjusted defensive
Ohio State - 2nd and 10th
Kansas - 3rd and 7th
Purdue - 11th and 6th
That's it. Texas' offense (29th) holds it back, Pitt is 20th on defense, BYU is just outside because they are 16th on defense, and those are the only one close to being top 15 in both.