Dork Poll tracking (Pomeroy-Sagarin)

[JasonEvans]

Each week, I will put a post in this thread with the KenPom and Sagarin rankings of each ACC team. Food for thought...

Team         Sag   Pom   Dif
Duke           1     1     0
UNC            9    16    -7
Clemson       20    29    -9
Maryland      29    23    +6
Fla St        32    27    +5
Miami         46    46     0
Va Tech       51    25   +26
Ga Tech       53    78   -25
Virginia      58    57    +1
BC            63    38   +25
NC State      70    41   +29
Wake          90   132   -42

Additionally, We can look at how each school was ranked the week before and where they are now in the two most widely regarded computer rankings.

Sagarin     Today   Last wk   Change
Duke           1       1        --
UNC            9       5        -4
Clemson       20      25        +5
Maryland      29      29        --
Fla St        32      32        --
Miami         46      47        +1
Va Tech       51      46        -5
Ga Tech       53      43       -10
Virginia      58      77       +19
BC            63      64        +1
NC State      70      65        -5
Wake          90      37       -53

Virginia is the big mover in the Saragin rankings. Wake's strangely high preseason ranking has been overtaken by their horrid first week results.

Pomeroy     Today   Last wk      Change
Duke           1        1          --
UNC           16       12          -4
Maryland      23       24          +1
Va Tech       25       17          -8
Fla St        27       20          -7
Clemson       29       28          -1
BC            38       41          +3
NC State      41       33          -8
Miami         46       39          -7
Virginia      57       62          +5
Ga Tech       78       83          +5
Wake         132      107         -25

A lot of folks may have thought Pom had Clemson too high, but his preseason ranking may have been right. Disappointing to see so many of the ACC's middle tier sliding down 7 or 8 spots, but most of them have big chances this week to put on an eye-opening performance.

-Jason "whew, that took a while... hope ya'll enjoy it " Evans

[Faustus]

I do appreciate the efforts Jason. I can also remember the days when the only stats around to see were the weekly AP and UPI top 20 (not even top 25) rankings that would show up in the newspapers on Tuesdays. (But then the players' uniforms had shorter pants then too.) The ebb and flow of ACC members could be very interesting to watch this season. There's one team at the top whose position I don't want to see ebb, however.

[Indoor66]

Like last week, I will put a post in this thread with the KenPom and Sagarin rankings of each ACC team. Food for thought...

Team         Sag   Pom   Dif
Duke           1     1     0
UNC            9    16    -7
Clemson       20    29    -9
Maryland      29    23    +6
Fla St        32    27    +5
Miami         46    46     0
Va Tech       51    25   +26
Ga Tech       53    78   -25
Virginia      58    57    +1
BC            63    38   +25
NC State      70    41   +29
Wake          90   132   -42

Additionally, We can look at how each school was ranked the week before and where they are now in the two most widely regarded computer rankings.

Sagarin     Today   Last wk   Change
Duke           1       1        --
UNC            9       5        -4
Clemson       20      25        +5
Maryland      29      29        --
Fla St        32      32        --
Miami         46      47        +1
Va Tech       51      46        -5
Ga Tech       53      43       -10
Virginia      58      77       +19
BC            63      64        +1
NC State      70      65        -5
Wake          90      37       -53

Virginia is the big mover in the Saragin rankings. Wake's strangely high preseason ranking has been overtaken by their horrid first week results.

Pomeroy     Today   Last wk      Change
Duke           1        1          --
UNC           16       12          -4
Maryland      23       24          -1
Va Tech       25       17          -8
Fla St        27       20          -7
Clemson       29       28          +1
BC            38       41          +3
NC State      41       33          -8
Miami         46       39          -7
Virginia      57       62          +5
Ga Tech       78       83          +5
Wake         132      107         -25

A lot of folks may have thought Pom had Clemson too high, but his preseason ranking may have been right. Disappointing to see so many of the ACC's middle tier sliding down 7 or 8 spots, but most of them have big chances this week to put on an eye-opening performance.

-Jason "whew, that took a while... hope ya'll enjoy it " Evans

If this is going to be a regular thing (and I hope it is), shouldn't it have its own thread - maybe titled "Pomeroy-Sagarin Movement" or something?

[JasonEvans]

If this is going to be a regular thing (and I hope it is), shouldn't it have its own thread - maybe titled "Pomeroy-Sagarin Movement" or something?

Done!

-JE

[Indoor66]

Thanks. I think this will be a great addition to our enjoyment of the season... It will for me!

[juise]

I don't know. I think I'm going to miss the phrase "Dork Polls" in the title of the thread, like the one we had last year.

(Seriously, though... thanks for the effort, Jason.)

[JasonEvans]

I don't know. I think I'm going to miss the phrase "Dork Polls" in the title of the thread, like the one we had last year.

(Seriously, though... thanks for the effort, Jason.)

Ask and ye shall receive!

-Jason

[JasonEvans]

In the wake of their horrid performance last night, Ga Tech dropped from 78th in Pomeroy to 107th. They dropped from 53rd to 106 in the Sagarin rankings.

Yikes!

--Jason "is it too early to start the Paul Hewitt replacement list?" Evans

[Bob Green]

--Jason "is it too early to start the Paul Hewitt replacement list?" Evans

Too early? That watch should've been started a couple of years ago. Once he is fired, perhaps Gary Williams should hire him to be lead recruiter at Maryland. It is a frightening thought to think about the success Williams could attain if he had Hewitt's recruits.

[JasonEvans]

Too early? That watch should've been started a couple of years ago. Once he is fired, perhaps Gary Williams should hire him to be lead recruiter at Maryland. It is a frightening thought to think about the success Williams could attain if he had Hewitt's recruits.

Hewitt was in trouble about two years ago but he landed a huge recruiting class -- highlighted by Favors -- to preserve his job. Everyone said it was such a good class, he deserved the chance to coach it and see what happened.

Well, what happened was a good, but not nearly as good as everyone had expected year. It was not a bad enough season to have anyone say he should be fired, but it was not good enough to buy him the good will to survive much longer.

Unlike that situation, Hewitt does not have any saviors coming in his recruiting for next year. His best recruit is forward Julian Royal, a top 100 prospect, but not the kind of kid who can save your program (the way Favors could).

--Jason "if there was a dork poll for coaching, Hewitt would have an exceedingly low ranking right now" Evans

[Im4howdy]

Jason-

As one who has been critical (more than once) of your excesses on this board, I have to publicly express my appreciation for your Dork Poll Tracking and look forward to following it in the future. Good job.

[JasonEvans]

In the wake of their horrid performance last night, Ga Tech dropped from 78th in Pomeroy to 107th. They dropped from 53rd to 106 in the Sagarin rankings.

Apparently, Wake has decided to tell Ga Tech, "anything you can do, I can do worse!"

In the aftermath of Wake's horrid loss last night, they fell from--

Pomeroy - 132 to 152
Sagarin - 90 to 164

The KenPom move is not that huge but the Sagarin plunge is quite impressive. That takes some work! Of course, Sag had Wake waaaay too high in the preseason. This kind of correction is not all that surprising.

Still, even the bad ACC teams tend to only be in the 100 or so kind of range in these polls. To see an ACC team down in the 150s and 160s is really unusual.

Here is the lowest rated ACC team in the KenPom rankings in recent years--

2010 - Virginia - 76
2009 - Virginia - 105
2008 - NC St - 96
2007 - Wake - 87
2006 - Ga Tech - 96
2005 - FSU - 87
2004 - Clemson - 97
2003 - Clemson - 117

-Jason "sadly, Ken has no archived numbers for the woeful 2002 UNC club" Evans

[hurleyfor3]

I don't know. I think I'm going to miss the phrase "Dork Polls" in the title of the thread, like the one we had last year.

*ahem* And who here popularized the term in the first place? You're welcome.

I have a hard time buying into the use of Bayesian priors for this kind of thing, but I guess Pomeroy is ok with them now, so who am I to argue. ("Bayesian prior" is dorkspeak for "guessing".)

[SCMatt33]

Still, even the bad ACC teams tend to only be in the 100 or so kind of range in these polls. To see an ACC team down in the 150s and 160s is really unusual.

Here is the lowest rated ACC team in the KenPom rankings in recent years--

2010 - Virginia - 76
2009 - Virginia - 105
2008 - NC St - 96
2007 - Wake - 87
2006 - Ga Tech - 96
2005 - FSU - 87
2004 - Clemson - 97
2003 - Clemson - 117

-Jason "sadly, Ken has no archived numbers for the woeful 2002 UNC club" Evans

This could actually end up being a good thing as far as ACC perception goes. Whether it's right or not, the media (and sometimes members of the committee, even if they don't admit it), rates conferences on two things. First, they look at how many "top teams" a conference has. This generally means top 10-15 teams seen as legit Final Four contenders. If the Big East has 4 and the ACC has 3, it's seen as better for the Big East, even though both conferences have 25% of their teams in that group. The second is how many teams are in contention for a tourney berth. If the Big East has 8 teams on the bubble or better, it would be seen as better than 6 for the Pac-10, even though the Pac-10 has a much better proportion of it's league in contention.

Bottom teams are completely ignored in conference evaluation. The Big East has always been in the top conference conversation the last few years, even though it has had 4 teams (25% of its league) outside the top 100 on KenPom in 3 of the last 4 years. Last year, the Big Ten was seen as one of the strongest conferences despite having two teams ranked below 170 (the lower half of D-I)! BTW, neither one of those teams was named Penn State, who was 97. This is how the ACC has always looked good in the computers in the last five years, despite often being described as "down" by the media. The computers give fair weight to the worst teams.

If the ACC has a couple of punching bags who both win just 1 or 2 games in conference, it can help build the rest of the conference up. Last year, the worst teams were winning 4-5 games in conference and hanging "bad losses" on the middle of the conference, even if those losses shouldn't have been considered as bad as the bottom teams of another conference.

[MChambers]

This could actually end up being a good thing as far as ACC perception goes. Whether it's right or not, the media (and sometimes members of the committee, even if they don't admit it), rates conferences on two things. First, they look at how many "top teams" a conference has. This generally means top 10-15 teams seen as legit Final Four contenders. If the Big East has 4 and the ACC has 3, it's seen as better for the Big East, even though both conferences have 25% of their teams in that group. The second is how many teams are in contention for a tourney berth. If the Big East has 8 teams on the bubble or better, it would be seen as better than 6 for the Pac-10, even though the Pac-10 has a much better proportion of it's league in contention.

I certainly agree with you, but note that Pomeroy predicts that behind Duke in the ACC will be five teams jammed at 9-7, not exactly the stuff of top 15 teams. Of course, someone may break out of the pack.

[SCMatt33]

I certainly agree with you, but note that Pomeroy predicts that behind Duke in the ACC will be five teams jammed at 9-7, not exactly the stuff of top 15 teams. Of course, someone may break out of the pack.

Even without the top ten teams, it will help the ACC tremendously in category 2, as KenPoms predictions likely lead to 9 teams who are at least on the bubble, which would be a really giant number. The "top teams" factor is usually more important so you would need a few to break out the pack.

Also, I just saw that he predicts 7 conference wins between Gtech and Wake. For my scenario to play out, that number needs to be down at 4, including two games against each other.

[ThePublisher]

Thanks for this. I check KenPom after every game. I find them to be much more reliable than sargin. I have a funny feeling that Duke will remain number 1 on pomeroy all year long. Just a hunch.

[billyj]

Thanks for this. I check KenPom after every game. I find them to be much more reliable than sargin. I have a funny feeling that Duke will remain number 1 on pomeroy all year long. Just a hunch.

Ohio is looking awfully good though. They are not far behind.

[loran16]

Ohio is looking awfully good though. They are not far behind.

Pretty sure Ohio lost to Oakland last week. (Oh you meant another school in the state?)

[JasonEvans]

As I wrote in an email earlier today--

Sullinger is the nation's best freshman. If I had to put money on anyone other than Duke to win the national title, it would be The Ohio State University. I think they are the clear #2 and the team I fear the most.

-Jason "Thad has really built a quality program... and his recruiting is studly" Evans