MBB: Duke 97, Princeton 60 Post Game Thread

[vabombers]

That's an excellent point. I would have looked at how much time Miles was in there with the starting backcourt Kyrie, Nolan and Kyle as opposed to the other bigs too. But either way, it's valid.

[Devilsfan]

It took Zoubs 3 1/2 years to dominate in the paint and boy was it worth the wait. Miles is only a Junior, so I guess we need to be a little patient.

[Bob Green]

That's an excellent point. I would have looked at how much time Miles was in there with the starting backcourt Kyrie, Nolan and Kyle as opposed to the other bigs too. But either way, it's valid.

The starting line-up was used three times and ended with a plus/minus of +12.

Lineups (Score, times used, margin)
Irving-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (23-11, 3x, +12)

As has been mentioned multiple times in the +/- thread, one game is too small of a sample size to conclude anything. Once we have +/- data from a dozen games, we can take a reasonable look at the various line-ups to see which are consistently outscoring our opponents.

[Newton_14]

The starting line-up was used three times and ended with a plus/minus of +12.



As has been mentioned multiple times in the +/- thread, one game is too small of a sample size to conclude anything. Once we have +/- data from a dozen games, we can take a reasonable look at the various line-ups to see which are consistently outscoring our opponents.

I agree Bob. After having seen all of the games thus far, I am not worried about Miles at all. Like Lance, Miles seems to have an ability to have a positive impact out there without putting up a lot of stats. With the scoring ability we have in the guards and wings, it puts much less pressure on our bigs to have to score. It's not like we are running every other play for Miles. He just did not get a lot of opportunities to score last night. He is and will be fine out there imo.

As for Mason, I thought he had a good game last night. Mason made several good plays last night, especially on offense. He created numerous scoring opportunities for his teammates. He also took the ball to the hole with authority a couple of times. Mason is well beyond where he was last year. When he is on the court, it is apparent that the first thing on his mind is setting up a teammate for a score. Even in the summer league this year where most people throw team ball out the window, over and over again Mason was distributing the ball and getting an assist or making the pass prior to the assist pass.

He is becoming a better rebounder as well. Still has a long way to go but missing several of the early games last year hurt his development and the early season games this year will help him make up for some of that. The highlight dunks will come. We have already seen several of those from him and Miles in the other games that were not on tv.

Don't give up on them after 1 game...

[lotusland]

I started to begin a new thread but I'll let the mods decide if this should remain in the Princeton thread

As far as this argument goes I'll make these points and then try to let it go and just enjoy the season. Back in the Spring several of you high pitchfork count guys scoffed at the notion that Kyle would play allot of 4 to free up minutes for our talented guards. Someone said and you all parroted that K had already spoken on the issue saying Kyle would remain a 3 and that was the end of the argument. I never actually saw his comment but I'll accept that he said something to that affect in the wake of the NC as he was preparing for his Summer gig with Team USA.

Even so it was as clear then as it is now that Kyle is the best 4 on this team. He is also the best 3 and since he is the only true 3 on the team (I actually think Josh is more of a true 3 but he won't play much this year) Kyle will definitely start at three and play major minutes there.

Since the Spring Kyle has added strength and weight and stated that he wants to play whatever position helps the team win. A couple of the guards have stated that they aren't worried about minutes on the perimeter because Kyle can slide down to the 4 to free up minutes. I don't think they just made that up so I'm sure the coaches made that known to put their minds at ease which was smart.

Now I hear some back-pedaling from those of you who scoffed back in the Spring and I'm glad to see that because we're all Duke fans so obviously we agree on the most important points!

With that said I want to point out that the regulars on here like to maintain an echo-chamber of "group think" sometimes and you just aren't too welcoming to new and different opinions. One Duke website calls this forum "antiseptic" which is somewhat true. So if the owners, mods and regulars want to keep the conversation just between "friends" I suppose that is your right but if you want some new and different views from time to time you should try to be a little more welcoming. Perhaps awarding pitchforks for posts that agree with your view is not the best way to go about that.

[MChambers]

With that said I want to point out that the regulars on here like to maintain an echo-chamber of "group think" sometimes and you just aren't too welcoming to new and different opinions. One Duke website calls this forum "antiseptic" which is somewhat true. So if the owners, mods and regulars want to keep the conversation just between "friends" I suppose that is your right but if you want some new and different views from time to time you should try to be a little more welcoming. Perhaps awarding pitchforks for posts that agree with your view is not the best way to go about that.

I actually think there is a fairly good diversity of opinion here. I also value the fact that most posters bring some evidence to support their views, rather than just voicing unsupported opinions. Yes, some people do get criticized when they voice an opinion that is not conventional wisdom here, but it usually because they have no evidence to support their opinion.

[Jderf]

[...]Now I hear some back-pedaling from those of you who scoffed back in the Spring and I'm glad to see that because we're all Duke fans so obviously we agree on the most important points!

With that said I want to point out that the regulars on here like to maintain an echo-chamber of "group think" sometimes and you just aren't too welcoming to new and different opinions. One Duke website calls this forum "antiseptic" which is somewhat true. So if the owners, mods and regulars want to keep the conversation just between "friends" I suppose that is your right but if you want some new and different views from time to time you should try to be a little more welcoming. Perhaps awarding pitchforks for posts that agree with your view is not the best way to go about that.

I think this post is excessively polemical. The 3-or-4 debate which occurred at the end of last spring seemed to me to be a good-spirited discussion with many strong points on all sides. The debate was never couched in black and white terms such as "Kyle will be a 3" or "Kyle will be a 4." Rather, it was about where he would spend the most time. When you have the most versatile player in the country, you don't pigeonhole him into a single position.

There was no "echo-chamber" trying desperately to safeguard a bunch of insulated opinions. It was very much an open debate. In fact, the issue is actually still open, as we are only one game into the season. No reason to start trumpeting the victory horns for a battle that never happened.

[COYS]

I started to begin a new thread but I'll let the mods decide if this should remain in the Princeton thread

As far as this argument goes I'll make these points and then try to let it go and just enjoy the season. Back in the Spring several of you high pitchfork count guys scoffed at the notion that Kyle would play allot of 4 to free up minutes for our talented guards. Someone said and you all parroted that K had already spoken on the issue saying Kyle would remain a 3 and that was the end of the argument. I never actually saw his comment but I'll accept that he said something to that affect in the wake of the NC as he was preparing for his Summer gig with Team USA.

Even so it was as clear then as it is now that Kyle is the best 4 on this team. He is also the best 3 and since he is the only true 3 on the team (I actually think Josh is more of a true 3 but he won't play much this year) Kyle will definitely start at three and play major minutes there.

Since the Spring Kyle has added strength and weight and stated that he wants to play whatever position helps the team win. A couple of the guards have stated that they aren't worried about minutes on the perimeter because Kyle can slide down to the 4 to free up minutes. I don't think they just made that up so I'm sure the coaches made that known to put their minds at ease which was smart.

Now I hear some back-pedaling from those of you who scoffed back in the Spring and I'm glad to see that because we're all Duke fans so obviously we agree on the most important points!

With that said I want to point out that the regulars on here like to maintain an echo-chamber of "group think" sometimes and you just aren't too welcoming to new and different opinions. One Duke website calls this forum "antiseptic" which is somewhat true. So if the owners, mods and regulars want to keep the conversation just between "friends" I suppose that is your right but if you want some new and different views from time to time you should try to be a little more welcoming. Perhaps awarding pitchforks for posts that agree with your view is not the best way to go about that.

I actually think most of the knowledgeable posters believed that, barring foul trouble or injury, Duke would play Kyle at the 3 for the majority of the time but he would also spend some time at the 4. I don't think anyone ever said Kyle would never, ever, ever play the 4. Also, while it is a small sample size and may change as the season progresses, the +/- stats for the Princeton game indicate that the bigger lineup was a better lineup for one night. We'll see how this changes as the season progresses.

Also, as someone who is relatively new to this board (at least compared to a number of others), I have always found the level of discussion to be extremely sophisticated. The board is quick to embrace newcomers who make well-articulated and substantiated posts. The board also does not let anyone get away with stating unsupported opinions as facts. Maintaining a high level of discussion on an internet forum where anyone can join and post anonymously is no small task. The mods and others who maintain this board have done a magnificent job maintaining the atmosphere of DBR as it has grown. Is it perfect? No. Should some things be changed? Perhaps. However, the dedication the DBR community has shown to encouraging articulate and substantiated posts is the most unique quality of this board.

[airowe]

When I was disagreeing with people on the 3/4 debate it was always disputing the fact that Kyle would start at the 3. That was not my opinion.

My opinion has always been that Kyle will play anywhere from 5-10 mpg at the 4 when the thick of the schedule starts (honestly that's pretty soon, but hasn't happened yet.)

I think this place is very welcoming to opposing viewpoints if they're supported by evidence. Vabombers for example has done a very good job of backing up his opinions with solid reasoning.

[hq2]

I'd say Kyle will play 10-15 minutes a game at 4 for a simple reason; Andre will probably play 20-25 at 3, so Kyle would have to slide over some. Once the coaches see how much Andre does out there vs. what would happen if one of the bigs were given the minutes, they'll have to keep him out there. That puts Kyle at 4 with one of the Plumlees at center, a slightly smaller, but quicker and better shooting lineup.

[InSpades]

There were definitely some opinions expressed along the lines of "Kyle didn't come back to Duke to play the 4" and "Coach wouldn't put Kyle at the 4 when he's going to play the 3 at the next level". These are the opinions I found somewhat offensive personally... I'm sure Kyle would do whatever it took for the team to win (ditto for Coach).

My opinion was always that there weren't enough minutes for the backcourt guys if Kyle plays most of his time at the 3. If you assume Kyle and Nolan both play 30+ minutes per game (they played 35+ last year, we'll give them like 32 maybe?) and then Kyrie is going to play atleast 25. You've already taken up 89 of the 120 minutes available at the 1-3 spots.

You also leave 80 minutes to be played by the "bigs". It would be nice if Mason and Miles could each get like 25 minutes per game but realistically they will fall short of that (Lance got 25 last year, Zoubs was actually around 19). Let's give them each like 22? Which leaves 36 minutes for the other bigs. So we have:

Ryan and Josh: 36 minutes
Tyler, Seth and Andre: 31 minutes

It just seems way off. I would expect Seth and Andre to play more than Ryan and Josh and in order to get that to happen you need to start taking minutes away from the "bigs" to give to the "littles" by playing Kyle at the 4. If you want to give Seth and Andre each 20 per game and Tyler 5 per game then Kyle needs to play 14 minutes at the 4. That leaves Ryan and Josh with about 22 minutes combined which doesn't seem unrealistic.

Obviously everything said above is just ballpark. It will all depend on the level of opponent and tightness of the game (I'd expect Kyle and Nolan to play more than 32 in big games this year). Ryan could steal some Plumlee minutes if he performs well. Seth could steal some of Andre's minutes. But I think the above is somewhat realistic.

In summary I would expect Kyle to play about an equal amount at the 3 and the 4 this year. He'll get more time there if Seth and Andre step it up, less time there if Ryan and Plumless step it up more.

[DevilHorns]

For anybody who missed any part of the game against Princeton, just a friendly reminder that you can re-watch any recent ESPN televised game on ESPN3.com (as long as it's carried by your internet provider; I have verizon and it works). Just click the 'replay' tab and select the game you want to watch.

[COYS]

There were definitely some opinions expressed along the lines of "Kyle didn't come back to Duke to play the 4" and "Coach wouldn't put Kyle at the 4 when he's going to play the 3 at the next level". These are the opinions I found somewhat offensive personally... I'm sure Kyle would do whatever it took for the team to win (ditto for Coach).

My opinion was always that there weren't enough minutes for the backcourt guys if Kyle plays most of his time at the 3. If you assume Kyle and Nolan both play 30+ minutes per game (they played 35+ last year, we'll give them like 32 maybe?) and then Kyrie is going to play atleast 25. You've already taken up 89 of the 120 minutes available at the 1-3 spots.

You also leave 80 minutes to be played by the "bigs". It would be nice if Mason and Miles could each get like 25 minutes per game but realistically they will fall short of that (Lance got 25 last year, Zoubs was actually around 19). Let's give them each like 22? Which leaves 36 minutes for the other bigs. So we have:

Ryan and Josh: 36 minutes
Tyler, Seth and Andre: 31 minutes

It just seems way off. I would expect Seth and Andre to play more than Ryan and Josh and in order to get that to happen you need to start taking minutes away from the "bigs" to give to the "littles" by playing Kyle at the 4. If you want to give Seth and Andre each 20 per game and Tyler 5 per game then Kyle needs to play 14 minutes at the 4. That leaves Ryan and Josh with about 22 minutes combined which doesn't seem unrealistic.

Obviously everything said above is just ballpark. It will all depend on the level of opponent and tightness of the game (I'd expect Kyle and Nolan to play more than 32 in big games this year). Ryan could steal some Plumlee minutes if he performs well. Seth could steal some of Andre's minutes. But I think the above is somewhat realistic.

In summary I would expect Kyle to play about an equal amount at the 3 and the 4 this year. He'll get more time there if Seth and Andre step it up, less time there if Ryan and Plumless step it up more.

To be fair to those like myself who contend that Kyle will still play primarily at the 3 with 10-12 minutes at the 4, most of the people who used evidence to back up their opinion on Kyle's position this year quoted K and others on the staff who said that the starting lineup would be Mason, Miles, Kyle, Nolan, and Kyrie and that they expected big things from the Plumbros plus an expanded role for Ryan. A very small subset made the claims you referenced above.

As for the minutes breakdown, I agree that we will see a battle waged between Ryan and Josh on one side and Andre and Seth on the other to earn minutes and dictate how often Duke goes small or big. Ultimately, however, I think this battle is fought on the defensive end rather than on offense. Duke will always have enough offense on the court to score points. In the next couple games I will be looking to see how the defense looks when Andre is in at the three. Do we have enough rebounding? Does the size disadvantage hurt our ability to challenge shots? Is the smaller team actually more effective than the larger lineup on the offensive end (fewer screeners, fewer offensive boards, fewer post players to occupy the other team's shot blockers)? The plus/minus stats from the Princeton game indicate that the offense and defense was actually stronger when Kyle was playing the 3. However, one game isn't large enough to draw any conclusions yet. Andre has clearly picked up his game and will get minutes no matter what. I think the defensive end is where we'll learn how many minutes he will demand at the 3.

[sagegrouse]

I'd say Kyle will play 10-15 minutes a game at 4 for a simple reason; Andre will probably play 20-25 at 3, so Kyle would have to slide over some. Once the coaches see how much Andre does out there vs. what would happen if one of the bigs were given the minutes, they'll have to keep him out there. That puts Kyle at 4 with one of the Plumlees at center, a slightly smaller, but quicker and better shooting lineup.

Here's a sequence adding to 200 minutes that may make sense:

30-30-25-25-20-20-20-15-10-5

And one plausible assignment of names:

a. In a deep team no one averages more than 30 mins., and Kyle and Nolan average that.
b. Los Plumlees come in at 20-25 because of depth, rotation and fouls.
c. Kyrie plays 25.
d. Andre and Seth each play 20.
e. Ryan gets 15.
f. Josh and Tyler get 5 and 10 or 10 and 5.

That assignment of numbers implies that Kyle gets 10-15 minutes with only one big guy on the court. This -- I guess -- would mean that Dre spends 10-15 mins. at the wing.

Well that's enough speculation for now.

sagegrouse

[InSpades]

To be fair to those like myself who contend that Kyle will still play primarily at the 3 with 10-12 minutes at the 4, most of the people who used evidence to back up their opinion on Kyle's position this year quoted K and others on the staff who said that the starting lineup would be Mason, Miles, Kyle, Nolan, and Kyrie and that they expected big things from the Plumbros plus an expanded role for Ryan. A very small subset made the claims you referenced above.

An expanded role for Ryan could mean as little as 10 minutes per game (if he plays 12 minutes per game he's doubling his court time from last year). Zoubs did "big things" last year in less than 19 minutes per game. I don't think these things preclude Kyle from playing lots of minutes at the 4.

It will of course come down to effectiveness at both ends of the floor. I have a lot more faith in Seth and Andre earning expanded minutes than I do any of the bigs (though Ryan looked significantly better in game 1 than he did last year). Regardless I don't think Duke can really go wrong. It's an embarassment of riches in a lot of ways. Tyler, Seth, Andre, Josh and Ryan would be a very good starting 5 for many of the teams we play this year.

[stickdog]

Even so it was as clear then as it is now that Kyle is the best 4 on this team.

Scoring differential when Singler played the 4:

Duke 35, Princeton 26 +9

Scoring differential when two of Plum1, Plum2, Kelly and Hairston played the 4 & 5:

Duke 62, Princeton 34 +28

I welcome your thoughts on this.

[vabombers]

I agree Bob. After having seen all of the games thus far, I am not worried about Miles at all. Like Lance, Miles seems to have an ability to have a positive impact out there without putting up a lot of stats. With the scoring ability we have in the guards and wings, it puts much less pressure on our bigs to have to score. It's not like we are running every other play for Miles. He just did not get a lot of opportunities to score last night. He is and will be fine out there imo.

As for Mason, I thought he had a good game last night. Mason made several good plays last night, especially on offense. He created numerous scoring opportunities for his teammates. He also took the ball to the hole with authority a couple of times. Mason is well beyond where he was last year. When he is on the court, it is apparent that the first thing on his mind is setting up a teammate for a score. Even in the summer league this year where most people throw team ball out the window, over and over again Mason was distributing the ball and getting an assist or making the pass prior to the assist pass.

He is becoming a better rebounder as well. Still has a long way to go but missing several of the early games last year hurt his development and the early season games this year will help him make up for some of that. The highlight dunks will come. We have already seen several of those from him and Miles in the other games that were not on tv.

Don't give up on them after 1 game...

I agree on those points, and thanks to Bob for pulling those statistics. It's not unfair to say Princeton was not Miles finest game whether a specific stat necessarily bears that out or not, but would be completely, utterly (can't find a strong enough adjective) ridiculous to write him off or even to think he couldn't become a force as this season goes along. Evaluation can show room for improvement without constricting the person to a box that limits future performance.

[COYS]

An expanded role for Ryan could mean as little as 10 minutes per game (if he plays 12 minutes per game he's doubling his court time from last year). Zoubs did "big things" last year in less than 19 minutes per game. I don't think these things preclude Kyle from playing lots of minutes at the 4.

Of course, Zoubs ended up at 19 minutes per game in large part because he played so few minutes early in the season before his role really expanded after the Maryland game in Cameron. Counting that game, he averaged 24 mpg the rest of the way out for the regular season and the ACC tournament (ESPN doesn't have the NCAA game log readily available), even including a 14 minute foul-plagued game against Virginia. If Miles makes the contributions many expect him to make this season, he will probably average closer to the 24 minutes per game Zoubs averaged to close the regular season and ACC tournament rather than the approximately 17 mpg he averaged up until that point.

[InSpades]

Of course, Zoubs ended up at 19 minutes per game in large part because he played so few minutes early in the season before his role really expanded after the Maryland game in Cameron. Counting that game, he averaged 24 mpg the rest of the way out for the regular season and the ACC tournament (ESPN doesn't have the NCAA game log readily available), even including a 14 minute foul-plagued game against Virginia. If Miles makes the contributions many expect him to make this season, he will probably average closer to the 24 minutes per game Zoubs averaged to close the regular season and ACC tournament rather than the approximately 17 mpg he averaged up until that point.

I agree, that's why I gave Miles and Mason 22 mpg in my "prediction" up above. Of course if Miles plays as effectively as Zoubs played in the 2nd half of last year then they might just want to cancel the rest of this season (this team with a rebounding monster in the middle would be unfair).

I don't expect Mason and Miles to play as much as the senior Lance and Zoubs played at the end of last year. Do you? It would be great if they earned that much playing time but it seems unlikely (partially due to how deep this Duke team is, partially do to just how well Lance and Zoubs were playing). They could both be incredibly productive while playing slightly more than half the game.

[lotusland]

Scoring differential when Singler played the 4:

Duke 35, Princeton 26 +9

Scoring differential when two of Plum1, Plum2, Kelly and Hairston played the 4 & 5:

Duke 62, Princeton 34 +28

I welcome your thoughts on this.

I don't need to add much to make my case here. We have 2 seasons of Kyle playing primarily the 4 and occasionally at 5 to compare to Miles, Mason, Josh and Ryan. I don't think I really need to defend my statement that Kyle is our best 4 other than to look at the record. If you are arguing against using Kyle at the 4 it should be based on what we lose at 3 not 4. Kyle is our best player. I'd rate him as our best 5 if we needed him to play there. He's going to do well at either 3 or 4 so the decision is how to best use him for the team to win. I think we are stronger and have more depth on the perimeter so moving Kyle down low for "substantial" minutes gets Dre and Seth more minutes with plenty of time left Ryan and Josh given that we pretty much agree on the Plums will getting 20-25 MPG on avg.

BTW Kyle is our best back to basket scorer too although that is more b/c our other bigs are weak in that dept than Kyle being a beast. IMO Kyle starts at 3 and plays 10-15 MPG at 4. I'm comfortable watching how this plays out at this point vs. debating ad nauseam. The other bigs do not have much of a post up game although I liked Miles attempt at hooking the defender ala Sheldon even though he drew a whistle. Every big needs a good post move or two so they should work on it even though that probably will never be their primary game.