MBB: Duke 97, Princeton 60 Post Game Thread

[UrinalCake]

Scoring differential when Singler played the 4:

Duke 35, Princeton 26 +9

Scoring differential when two of Plum1, Plum2, Kelly and Hairston played the 4 & 5:

Duke 62, Princeton 34 +28

I welcome your thoughts on this.

The +/- numbers are a really difficult stat to interpret. What kind of lineups were the opponents using during these two scenearios? What was the game situation? (for example, how much of each of these lineups occurred at the end of the game, when we might have been burning some clock?)

Last year (I think) someone produced a stat that showed that when Kevin Durant was in the game, the team's +/- numbers actually worsened. Based on this, you'd think that Durant was a horrible player, which obviously he is not. So while it would be really convenient if a single number could quantify a player's value, unfortunately that metric doesn't really exist.

[Kedsy]

Of course, Zoubs ended up at 19 minutes per game in large part because he played so few minutes early in the season before his role really expanded after the Maryland game in Cameron. Counting that game, he averaged 24 mpg the rest of the way out for the regular season and the ACC tournament (ESPN doesn't have the NCAA game log readily available), even including a 14 minute foul-plagued game against Virginia. If Miles makes the contributions many expect him to make this season, he will probably average closer to the 24 minutes per game Zoubs averaged to close the regular season and ACC tournament rather than the approximately 17 mpg he averaged up until that point.

Z averaged 23.5 mpg in the NCAAT, including 29.0 mpg in the Final Four (see http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketba...season=2009-10). Having said that, I agree with those who project both Mason and Miles as somewhere between 20 and 25. I disagree with whoever said Ryan will average as few as 10 mpg -- I expect between 15 and 20 for him.

Overall, I expect COYS will probably be right regarding Kyle playing 10 to 12 minutes a game at the 4 and I think Sagegrouse has a pretty reasonable divvying of minutes. Obviously things could change as time moves on. For example, before the Princeton game I figured Andre for 15 to 20 minutes, but after seeing him in one game I look for him to be on the high side of that range or even higher. I would not be surprised to see Josh's and Tyler's minutes diminish as the season wears on, but I wouldn't be shocked if they don't, either. No one can say for certain how the season will pan out.

[InSpades]

Z averaged 23.5 mpg in the NCAAT, including 29.0 mpg in the Final Four (see http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketba...season=2009-10). Having said that, I agree with those who project both Mason and Miles as somewhere between 20 and 25. I disagree with whoever said Ryan will average as few as 10 mpg -- I expect between 15 and 20 for him.

I didn't say that Ryan would average 10 minutes. Just that if he did average 10 minutes then it would be an "expanded role" for him. He essentially played just over 5 minutes per game when you factor in his DNPs.

[Kedsy]

I didn't say that Ryan would average 10 minutes. Just that if he did average 10 minutes then it would be an "expanded role" for him. He essentially played just over 5 minutes per game when you factor in his DNPs.

OK, but why is that relevant? Miles went from 4.5 mpg (also factoring in his DNPs) his freshman year to 16.5 his sophomore year (in a more crowded frontcourt than we have this year). I expect Ryan to get at least a similar bump if not more.

[oldnavy]

It would take an emergency of EPIC proportions for a team that has a viable, scholarship, often-McDonads All American backup at EVERY position to have to turn to Casey for minutes in a BIG game.

Not only that, but to think that 90 secs of mop up play against Princeton or any other team for that matter would somehow make a tangible difference is a little over the top...

[superdave]

Not only that, but to think that 90 secs of mop up play against Princeton or any other team for that matter would somehow make a tangible difference is a little over the top...

No, but as someone who has ridden the bench on teams before, seeing the court even for just a little mop-up times helps keep you hungry, happy and practicing hard. It's a psychological boost even if the players do understand their role is limited to practice and accept that with no problem. Never hurts to throw a dog a bone!

[MChambers]

The +/- numbers are a really difficult stat to interpret. What kind of lineups were the opponents using during these two scenearios? What was the game situation? (for example, how much of each of these lineups occurred at the end of the game, when we might have been burning some clock?)

Last year (I think) someone produced a stat that showed that when Kevin Durant was in the game, the team's +/- numbers actually worsened. Based on this, you'd think that Durant was a horrible player, which obviously he is not. So while it would be really convenient if a single number could quantify a player's value, unfortunately that metric doesn't really exist.

I agree that +/- statistics are hard to interpret, particularly for a game or two, but remember that last year Zoubs had excellent +/- numbers, even while people here were complaining about his play.

[Bob Green]

I agree on those points, and thanks to Bob for pulling those statistics.

The thanks for the statistics should go to pfrduke. I simply utilized the "copy & paste" function.

[-jk]

I started to begin a new thread but I'll let the mods decide if this should remain in the Princeton thread

As far as this argument goes I'll make these points and then try to let it go and just enjoy the season. Back in the Spring several of you high pitchfork count guys scoffed at the notion that Kyle would play allot of 4 to free up minutes for our talented guards. Someone said and you all parroted that K had already spoken on the issue saying Kyle would remain a 3 and that was the end of the argument. I never actually saw his comment but I'll accept that he said something to that affect in the wake of the NC as he was preparing for his Summer gig with Team USA.

Even so it was as clear then as it is now that Kyle is the best 4 on this team. He is also the best 3 and since he is the only true 3 on the team (I actually think Josh is more of a true 3 but he won't play much this year) Kyle will definitely start at three and play major minutes there.

Since the Spring Kyle has added strength and weight and stated that he wants to play whatever position helps the team win. A couple of the guards have stated that they aren't worried about minutes on the perimeter because Kyle can slide down to the 4 to free up minutes. I don't think they just made that up so I'm sure the coaches made that known to put their minds at ease which was smart.

Now I hear some back-pedaling from those of you who scoffed back in the Spring and I'm glad to see that because we're all Duke fans so obviously we agree on the most important points!

With that said I want to point out that the regulars on here like to maintain an echo-chamber of "group think" sometimes and you just aren't too welcoming to new and different opinions. One Duke website calls this forum "antiseptic" which is somewhat true. So if the owners, mods and regulars want to keep the conversation just between "friends" I suppose that is your right but if you want some new and different views from time to time you should try to be a little more welcoming. Perhaps awarding pitchforks for posts that agree with your view is not the best way to go about that.

Sorry I couldn't chime in earlier...

Whether Kyle would be a 3 or 4 has been argued actively both ways since he announced he was returning (and starting before anyone had pitchforks). Up 'til last month, the only outside evidence was that K said he'd be a "3", and that was well before practice began. Predicting the future is always tough. Hell, folks split hairs over who would start, and how many minutes per game a player would get - down to the specific minute, and before we even knew who would be on the team! Futile? Certainly. Fun? Some think so. I tend to not bother projecting that way; there's too much most of us can't know. I prefer to watch the season unfold and the team develop.

I think Kyle is the best player on the team, regardless of position. In some games the team will be more effective when Kyle plays with a couple of bigs and in other games with three smalls, regardless of how he may match up individually in any game.

Unlike last season, we have a deep backcourt this year, so there's less need to play him exclusively small. Alternatively, playing him for extended minutes as a big against sizable teams will lead to more wear and tear - even if he does seem remarkably resilient. (And he'll play 3 minutes and 12 seconds less each game this year than last. ) That's the joy of being the coach - you get to design the gestalt and you get to take the credit. Or not.

Moving on: DBR makes two fundamental demands of the membership; they're the basis of how we operate. First, bring your "A" game. Don't just toss out opinions without either backing them up with a reasonable argument or providing outside, credible sources. And do it civilly, without name-calling, taunting, or even "I told you so!" We don't want that here; we don't need that here. (If you're Jonesing to post that way, there are enough sites on the interwebs where you'll be welcomed with open arms. This just isn't one of them.) If that's "antiseptic" then, yes, I guess we are.

DBR has members who've been around for 5 or 10 years. We also have members who joined just a few months ago and already have earned credibility. We have professional, even award winning, journalists. Active bloggers. And just plain fans. And many, many more who don't actively post but come every day to read. We have a diverse community (not a pub anymore, alas) which brings diverse opinions. All well-supported opinions, presented with respect for the posting guidelines, are welcome. Bombast, sturm und drang, and bellicosity - not so much.

-jk

[InSpades]

OK, but why is that relevant? Miles went from 4.5 mpg (also factoring in his DNPs) his freshman year to 16.5 his sophomore year (in a more crowded frontcourt than we have this year). I expect Ryan to get at least a similar bump if not more.

A lot of people were/are saying that Kyle will spend a lot of time at 3 because Ryan will see an "expanded role" this year. My point is that for Ryan an "expanded role" doesn't mean that much since he had such a minimal role last year. Obviously an "expanded role" could also mean he starts and plays 25 minutes per game. There's a huge spectrum for "expanded role" when your role is rarely playing meaningful minutes.

As for a "more crowded" frontcourt. That's sort of looking at things in hindsight. Going into his sophomore year the Duke frontcourt didn't seem so crowded. Zoubs was always injured and had never really lived up to his potential. Lance was a defensive specialist. Miles got a big bump in playing time because he became a starter for most of the year. There was talk that both Plumless might start!

This year's frontcourt also looks a lot more "crowded" if you give Kyle more minutes at the 4 . There's potentially 3 front-court players who could be 1st round NBA draft picks if you consider Kyle a 4. Last year there was no threat of Kyle taking up minutes at the 4 (Duke was more likely to need Kyle to play the 2 than the 4). I'd be pretty surprised if Ryan ends up averaging 15+ minutes, and even more surprised if that means less time at 4 for Kyle (as opposed to less time for the other bigs).

[basket1544]

At one point during the game Kyrie was bringing the ball up with Seth and Andre hot and filling the wings and Kyle was at about the free throw line. I was thinking, "Poor Princeton, how do you defend against this?" You can't go off anyone to double team our guys and Princeton (at least) couldn't defend against Kyle one on one. Then I thought of Nolan on the bench and just let loose a scream of, "Wow!" Yes, we did lose a few of Princeton's big guys under the basket and there is some work to be done, but when we get great... unbelievable.

[stickdog]

I think we are stronger and have more depth on the perimeter.

OK, then why do you think the team performed far better against Princeton with two of Plum1, Plum2, Kelly and Hairston at the 4/5 than with one of them and Kyle at the 4/5?

[lotusland]

OK, then why do you think the team performed far better against Princeton with two of Plum1, Plum2, Kelly and Hairston at the 4/5 than with one of them and Kyle at the 4/5?

I have no idea. I'll have to assume that you charted that in some reliable way that I have no desire to verify. Do you think Duke has a better 4 than Kyle based on your stats from one game? I disagree and don't think it is really debatable. Sorry but those guys are nice players and will hopefully leave a nice legacy at Duke but combined they just haven't demonstrated anything resembling Kyle's production. Kyle's jersey is going in the rafters and good part of the production that will get him there came playing the 4 and 5 position. Despite playing great Defense and rebounding superbly, until the second hald of last year allot of people would have said that Kyle's move to the 3 was a failure. He figured it out and proved himself in the end but nobody ever doubted his ability as a college 4.

[MChambers]

I have no idea. I'll have to assume that you charted that in some reliable way that I have no desire to verify. Do you think Duke has a better 4 than Kyle based on your stats from one game? I disagree and don't think it is really debatable. Sorry but those guys are nice players and will hopefully leave a nice legacy at Duke but combined they just haven't demonstrated anything resembling Kyle's production. Kyle's jersey is going in the rafters and good part of the production that will get him there came playing the 4 and 5 position. Despite playing great Defense and rebounding superbly, until the second hald of last year allot of people would have said that Kyle's move to the 3 was a failure. He figured it out and proved himself in the end but nobody ever doubted his ability as a college 4.

I'm one of those who always thought Kyle was a perfect Duke 4. Having said that, I'd prefer to see him at the 3 most of the time this year, and think your argument has a flaw.

You don't just look at where Kyle is most effective; you look at the entire team.

The problem with him being a 4 on this team, at least for a majority of the game, is that we don't have another true forward to team with him, so we go pretty small. It's not like we have Mike Dunleavy to play the 3.

[Kedsy]

Do you think Duke has a better 4 than Kyle based on your stats from one game?

Well, first of all he didn't say that. He said in the Princeton game the team performed better with Kyle at the 3 than it did with Kyle at the 4. Which is true.

Second, I think you're asking the wrong question. Nobody believes we have a better "4" than Kyle. But nobody believes we have a better "3" than Kyle, either. The question you should be asking is whether the team is better with Kyle at the 3 and a big man at the 4 or with Kyle at the 4 and a small man at the 3. And while you're right that we can't know the definitive answer after one game, the initial datapoint appears to lean toward the former. Either way, you certainly can't answer this question simply by saying Kyle is a good 4.

[NSDukeFan]

I have no idea. I'll have to assume that you charted that in some reliable way that I have no desire to verify. Do you think Duke has a better 4 than Kyle based on your stats from one game? I disagree and don't think it is really debatable. Sorry but those guys are nice players and will hopefully leave a nice legacy at Duke but combined they just haven't demonstrated anything resembling Kyle's production. Kyle's jersey is going in the rafters and good part of the production that will get him there came playing the 4 and 5 position. Despite playing great Defense and rebounding superbly, until the second hald of last year allot of people would have said that Kyle's move to the 3 was a failure. He figured it out and proved himself in the end but nobody ever doubted his ability as a college 4.

Granted, assumptions should not be made from one game, but I think your argument has a couple of flaws in it. You are correct that Duke does not have a better 4 than Kyle based on stats from one game, or from looking at his career. You could also say that Duke does not have a better 5 than Kyle, but I don't expect to see him playing much there this year. Duke also doesn't have a better 3 than Kyle either, which is where I expect he will play the majority of his minutes this year.

I also hope and expect that Kyle's jersey will be in the rafters and that much of the reason is his outstanding play at the 4 and 5 in his first couple of years. However, he never did make first team all-ACC as a 4 or 5 (though I am sure he would have had he continued to play those positions his junior and/or senior years.)

I also don't think that Kyle's move last year was ever thought of as a failure. During the first half of the year, while he was rebounding and defending very well, he was still part of our big 3 on offense that alternated with Notre Dame for being the most prolific scoring threesome in the country. I think it may be more accurate to say that as the season progressed, Kyle became more and more comfortable playing on the perimeter and by the second half of the year was one of the premier wing players in the country, so much that he is the consensus pre-season player of the year as a perimeter player.

Since this thread has turned into Kyle is playing the 4 discussion, I will say that I have been in the Kyle will play more at the 3 position than the 4 this year camp based on coach K's summer comments. I see that there isn't a huge gap between what I thought coming into the year (Kyle would play 5-10 minutes as one of our two biggest players) and the Kyle will play a lot at the 4 camp. For Kyle to play 10 or fewer minutes at the 4, Ryan and Josh would have to play more than 25 minutes per game and Miles and Mason play 45 combined. I am hoping and expecting a big jump from Ryan and am hoping and expecting he has improved enough to average 17+ minutes a game. If that is not the case, Kyle will likely average more than 10 mpg (still not the majority of his minutes) at the 4. I'm not sure 1 game has convinced me one way or the other, but it will be interesting to watch, especially with how good Andre has looked and how he and Seth look to be forcing there way to more minutes.

[lotusland]

Granted, assumptions should not be made from one game, but I think your argument has a couple of flaws in it. You are correct that Duke does not have a better 4 than Kyle based on stats from one game, or from looking at his career. You could also say that Duke does not have a better 5 than Kyle, but I don't expect to see him playing much there this year. Duke also doesn't have a better 3 than Kyle either, which is where I expect he will play the majority of his minutes this year.

I also hope and expect that Kyle's jersey will be in the rafters and that much of the reason is his outstanding play at the 4 and 5 in his first couple of years. However, he never did make first team all-ACC as a 4 or 5 (though I am sure he would have had he continued to play those positions his junior and/or senior years.)

I also don't think that Kyle's move last year was ever thought of as a failure. During the first half of the year, while he was rebounding and defending very well, he was still part of our big 3 on offense that alternated with Notre Dame for being the most prolific scoring threesome in the country. I think it may be more accurate to say that as the season progressed, Kyle became more and more comfortable playing on the perimeter and by the second half of the year was one of the premier wing players in the country, so much that he is the consensus pre-season player of the year as a perimeter player.

Since this thread has turned into Kyle is playing the 4 discussion, I will say that I have been in the Kyle will play more at the 3 position than the 4 this year camp based on coach K's summer comments. I see that there isn't a huge gap between what I thought coming into the year (Kyle would play 5-10 minutes as one of our two biggest players) and the Kyle will play a lot at the 4 camp. For Kyle to play 10 or fewer minutes at the 4, Ryan and Josh would have to play more than 25 minutes per game and Miles and Mason play 45 combined. I am hoping and expecting a big jump from Ryan and am hoping and expecting he has improved enough to average 17+ minutes a game. If that is not the case, Kyle will likely average more than 10 mpg (still not the majority of his minutes) at the 4. I'm not sure 1 game has convinced me one way or the other, but it will be interesting to watch, especially with how good Andre has looked and how he and Seth look to be forcing there way to more minutes.

I posted my last comment on my way out the door to coach my son's basketball team so sorry if I was a little curt. I just got back to watch the game and noticed that Kyle moved to the 3 at about the 4 minute mark. I'll go over these last few posts after the game and see if I have anything to add but off hand I would suggest that you ask K why he moved Singler down low so quickly when your charting showed it to be so clearly ineffective.

[lotusland]

Kedsy, Mchambers and NSDukeFan

I've restated my view from the Spring that Singler will play substantial (10-15) minutes at 4 based on our talent and depth on the perimeter. I believe Seth and Andre are better perimeter players than Josh and Ryan are post players. That is debatable but I think it is fair to say that the experts and prognosticators are talking more about our backcourt talent and depth than our front court so it’s not just me saying it.

"Failure" was a poor choice of words to describe how Singler's move to the 3 was viewed early last year. Given the personnel we had, there was really no choice so no way it could be considered a failure. A better statement is that many observers would have said that Kyle was struggling offensively at the 3 relative to how he played previously at the 4.

I’m perfectly willing to have an ongoing debate but let’s get on an even footing first. I’ve stated my view: Singler will play substantial (10-15) minutes at the 4 in order to free up minutes for our deep and talented guards. BTW Andre looks strong this year so I don’t think it is a stretch at all for him to play the wing on offense of defense.

So if you disagree I’m up to the debate but let’s also get you guys on record so we’re not just being argumentative about my view. In other words let’s also hear your different views and why you disagree and I will be glad to respond.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, Mchambers and NSDukeFan

I've restated my view from the Spring that Singler will play substantial (10-15) minutes at 4 based on our talent and depth on the perimeter.

Well, it seems to me our "argument" might just be a definitional issue regarding the word "substantial." You say he'll play "substantial" (10-15) minutes at the 4 and I've always been saying he'll "only" play 8 to 12. It's actually kind of funny, like that scene from Annie Hall. If our difference in opinion is only 2 or 3 minutes, then it really may be just semantics.

In the Spring, several posters were arguing that we would start Kyle at the 4 and he would play "most" of the game there (and, to me, most is 21+, based on a 40 minute game). That is the position I argued against all Spring and will continue to argue against. But I don't see any point in going back and forth as to whether it will be 10 to 15 vs. 8 to 12. Our actual positions seem a lot closer than our descriptions of those positions.

[lotusland]

Well, it seems to me our "argument" might just be a definitional issue regarding the word "substantial." You say he'll play "substantial" (10-15) minutes at the 4 and I've always been saying he'll "only" play 8 to 12. .

from your June 4th post on the Josh Hairston thread:

So even if Kyle plays 10 mpg at the "4" (which I think may be a tad high but isn't an unreasonable estimate)

Here is Boozer's subsequent quote:
His first 2 years, Singler bulked up and carried extra weight to enable his body to handle the banging needed to guard 4's and 5's inside. Last year he redefined his body by dropping weight and working on lateral quickness and ball handling to prepare his body and skill set to play exclusively on the wing. This was also in preparation to play his natural position of Small Forward in the NBA. The end result of that was the Final Four MOP on the National Champion, and arguably, Kyle was the best Small Forward in college. Coming back for his Sr year he is most likely hands down the best Small Forward in the college game.

To play "significant minutes at the 4" and do so effectively, Kyle would need to transform his body back to where it was his sophomore and freshman year, and focus again on being an interior player. I really doubt Kyle is interested in going backward.

There will be times (like last 5 minutes protecting a lead) where Kyle will slide over to the 4. If it ends up he plays "significant" minutes at the 4 it means something has gone terrible wrong with the other bigs on the roster, and the effectiveness of our team defense and rebounding will not be very good.

Here is you agreeing with Boozer:
So because of both these reasons (plus all of Boozer's points about Kyle) I don't see Kyle playing more than 10 mpg at the "4" (and probably less)

here is Mr. Sumner getting into the mix:
The plan is to play 2 of Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly and Hairston at the 4/5, with Singler moving inside during end-of-game-situations. I agree with Boozer here. Singler only plays major minutes inside if the other four bigs don't play up to snuff.

I'd say so far all three of you were off b/c Singler has played the 4 significant minutes and it hasn't had as much to do with the other bigs as the other perimeter players IMO. I'm not sure when your "10 MPG max but probably less" estimate became 8-12 MPG but it seems to be a very dynamic estimate.