Top movies of Summer - a preview

[JasonEvans]

So, I happened to check out the 2011 summer movie list, just to see what would be in the running in our contest. It is going to be brutal to pick! There are at least 10 films that could each make over $200 million.

• Harry Potter 7.2 - a lock to make $300 million
• Transformers 3 - the first two each made $300+ mil
• Cars 2 - Pixar is always good for $225+ mil and sometimes good for $400 mil
• Pirates of the Carib: On Stranger Tides - another franchise that always makes $300+ mil
• X-Men: First Class - Wolverine was bad and it still made $180 mil
• Thor, Captain America, Green Lantern - Will these be Hulk/Daredevil or will they be Spider-man/Batman? Probably somewhere in between which means around $200 mil in boxoffice.
• Kung Fu Panda 2 - original made $215 mil
• Super 8 - JJ Abrams mysterious alien project that has everyone buzzing. The adult drama audience will be looking for something, like they did this past summer with Inception.
• Rise of the Apes - a reboot of the Planet of the Apes franchise. The lousy Mark Whalberg one made $180 mil in 2001, that's like $250 mil today.
• Hangover 2 - sequel to the most successful R-rated comedy ever. Original made $275 mil

That's 11 films that I could easily argue will make over $200 million. I think it is going to take something like $275 or maybe even $300 million to be in the top 5. I am serious.

And I did not even bother to list kids flicks that always do big in the summer, stuff like Disney's reboot of Winnie the Pooh or The Zookeeper. And what about The Smurfs!?!? Ok, just kidding about The Smurfs

--Jason "Wow... the contest is going to be hard! 3 for 5 may win it" Evans

[bjornolf]

--Jason "Wow... the contest is going to be hard! 3 for 5 may win it" Evans

No. 1, I wouldn't count the Smurfs out just yet. It's a NEW kids franchise, and one that a LOT of adults are familiar with and loved as kids. Moms ESPECIALLY will be drawn to this one. I think its chances will depend on what it's up against.

No 2., I think we have a BETTER chance of someone going 5/5 this coming summer. Since there won't be a real dark horse for people to over think, you'll probably get a decent spread across all the movies. Depending on how many vote, I'd bet SOMEBODY scores a 5 this summer, unless a true dark horse you don't even put up there makes it. Maybe you should put a choice for "the field", this summer, since there will be tons of blockbusters and basically nobody in the field will have a shot, unless I want to vote for the Smurfs.

[Udaman]

While there are a ton of good movies coming out...I actually don't see it as that tough.

Harry Potter - LOCK
Transformers - LOCK
Pirates - LOCK
Cars 2 - LOCK

Those four will make it. That really leaves one spot as far as I can tell....But those movies fighting for that last spot are all really interesting (Green Lantern, Hangover 2, Apes, Kung Fu Panda 2, Pooh, Cowboys v. Aliens)

[NashvilleDevil]

Watched the trailer last night and it looks okay. I never read the comics so I don't know what Hal Jordan is like but I think they are going for an Iron Man feel with Ryan Reynolds and although I like him I do not see him having as much charisma as Downey.

[bjornolf]

While there are a ton of good movies coming out...I actually don't see it as that tough.

Harry Potter - LOCK
Transformers - LOCK
Pirates - LOCK
Cars 2 - LOCK

Those four will make it. That really leaves one spot as far as I can tell....But those movies fighting for that last spot are all really interesting (Green Lantern, Hangover 2, Apes, Kung Fu Panda 2, Pooh, Cowboys v. Aliens)

Hence my point 2. With the ones that are locks, there's bound to be SOMEBODY pick the fifth one correctly.

[NashvilleDevil]

Trailer was released today and I think this may be one of the movies to bank on the top 5 next year. Favreau's track record has been solid. My only thing is can Daniel Craig carry a non-Bond movie?

[JasonEvans]

Disney has released the trailer for Cars 2...

It sucks. I mean it is terrible. I am a huge Pixar fan and have always backed them in the Top 5 of Summer contest but this is a horrible trailer. It did not leave me even a tiny bit excited about seeing this film.

I think one or two of the "lock list" may fall short. Potter is a lock but all the others may start to feel a little bit tired. I could see Pirates or Cars 2 or even Transformers making $225-$250 million (which is not bad at all) and yet falling short of the Top 5.

I hope something interesting and original comes out to really wow us -- the way Inception did in 2010, Hangover did in 2009, 300 did in 2007, and Wedding Crashers did in 2005.

-Jason "Despicable Me, the #5 film this past summer came in at $248 million" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

Disney has released the trailer for Cars 2...

It sucks. I mean it is terrible. I am a huge Pixar fan and have always backed them in the Top 5 of Summer contest but this is a horrible trailer. It did not leave me even a tiny bit excited about seeing this film.

I think one or two of the "lock list" may fall short. Potter is a lock but all the others may start to feel a little bit tired. I could see Pirates or Cars 2 or even Transformers making $225-$250 million (which is not bad at all) and yet falling short of the Top 5.

I hope something interesting and original comes out to really wow us -- the way Inception did in 2010, Hangover did in 2009, 300 did in 2007, and Wedding Crashers did in 2005.

-Jason "Despicable Me, the #5 film this past summer came in at $248 million" Evans

I was also disappointed with the trailer. Really a spy movie?! Very strange but this is the same studio that made tons of money with movies about a robot that doesn't talk and a rat that cooks. One thing the kids that loved Cars may be older and not want to see the sequel and if you are making a Cars sequel where is my sequel for The Incredibles?

[Tom B.]

[I]f you are making a Cars sequel where is my sequel for The Incredibles?

No kidding. If there's a Pixar movie that's begging to have a sequel made, it's The Incredibles. So many possibilities...

[JasonEvans]

No kidding. If there's a Pixar movie that's begging to have a sequel made, it's The Incredibles. So many possibilities...

And I thought The Incredibles was one of the better Pixar films while Cars is easily in the bottom third. I could easily argue it is the worst of all of them.

--Jason "though that is like being the worst Hall of Famer... still impressive" Evans

[bjornolf]

Disney has released the trailer for Cars 2...

It sucks. I mean it is terrible. I am a huge Pixar fan and have always backed them in the Top 5 of Summer contest but this is a horrible trailer. It did not leave me even a tiny bit excited about seeing this film.

I think one or two of the "lock list" may fall short. Potter is a lock but all the others may start to feel a little bit tired. I could see Pirates or Cars 2 or even Transformers making $225-$250 million (which is not bad at all) and yet falling short of the Top 5.

I hope something interesting and original comes out to really wow us -- the way Inception did in 2010, Hangover did in 2009, 300 did in 2007, and Wedding Crashers did in 2005.

-Jason "Despicable Me, the #5 film this past summer came in at $248 million" Evans

Yea, it looks pretty bad, but the kids will love it. If kids loved G-Force and Cats v. Dogs, and Bolt, they'll love this too.

I too, would love to see an Incredibles sequel. New villians, dealing with Jack-Jack's new powers. They could even follow the video game/the end of the movie and have the Underminer, if they wanted. Oh, and more E, baby!

[JasonEvans]

Yea, it looks pretty bad, but the kids will love it. If kids loved G-Force and Cats v. Dogs, and Bolt, they'll love this too.

G-Force - $119 million
Cats vs. Dogs - $45 million
Bolt - $114 million

Good boxoffice returns but not blockbusters. One thing Pixar learned a long time ago (that the rest of the family moviemaking audience has picked up) is that -- in most cases -- a film needs to have some appeal to adults or the adults simply won't take the kids. This is especially true during summer when there are plentiful options in theaters.

If adults are not excited to see Cars 2 it won't make the $250 mil it will take to be in the Top 5. I guarantee that.

-Jason "they need to do a lot, lot better than that trailer" Evans

[Lord Ash]

Speaking of poor trailers, there have been two recently (well, one trailer and one first run of commercials) that made me cringe.

The commercials were the first slate of them for "Due Date." I had no idea what the movie was about, and it seemed to focus solely on people bumping around in the back of a pickup truck. It left me with absolutely ZERO interest in seeing the film. Recently they have started a set of commercials with a different focus, and suddenly the concept (guy needs to get cross country to be there for his baby being born, rides with wacko guy) seems clear and I am more interested.

The other was a trailer I saw for the new Jolie/Depp movie, "The Tourist." Holy cow... two INSANELY watchable people, both of whom are fine actors as well, and MAN... the trailer makes the movie look SO generic... my wife, who like most ladies ADORES Depp, has zero interest in seeing the movie.

I often wonder how bad trailers get made... doesn't someone watch it and say "Hm, this does not make me want to watch the movie..." ?

[DUKIECB]

No kidding. If there's a Pixar movie that's begging to have a sequel made, it's The Incredibles. So many possibilities...

Speaking of Pixar sequels, according to Wikipedia they are currently working on Monsters Inc. 2. I liked Monsters Inc. but I'm not sure it warrants a sequel.

[camion]

G-Force - $119 million
Cats vs. Dogs - $45 million
Bolt - $114 million

Good boxoffice returns but not blockbusters. One thing Pixar learned a long time ago (that the rest of the family moviemaking audience has picked up) is that -- in most cases -- a film needs to have some appeal to adults or the adults simply won't take the kids. This is especially true during summer when there are plentiful options in theaters.

If adults are not excited to see Cars 2 it won't make the $250 mil it will take to be in the Top 5. I guarantee that.

-Jason "they need to do a lot, lot better than that trailer" Evans

I'm not that interested in a Cars 2, but a lot of people love to watch cars go round and round.

[Udaman]

By the way, we watched the Kung Fu Panda holiday special. It was pretty damn funny. My kids LOVE Kung Fu Panda...it has a great amount of humor for kids and adults...they just seem to get how to make scenes that are funny.

This will be a tough, tough movie not to put in the top 5....but so will Green Lantern, Hangover 2, X-Men, etc, etc).

[JBDuke]

By the way, we watched the Kung Fu Panda holiday special. It was pretty damn funny. My kids LOVE Kung Fu Panda...it has a great amount of humor for kids and adults...they just seem to get how to make scenes that are funny.

This will be a tough, tough movie not to put in the top 5....but so will Green Lantern, Hangover 2, X-Men, etc, etc).

"There is no charge for awesomeness."

[bjornolf]

My kids have enjoyed the Kung Fu Panda holiday special too. Their favorite parts are the suicidal bunny parts, especially the map.

Their other favorite is Disney's Prep and Landing. They LOVE that one. We've TiVo'd both, and they watch them at least once a day.

They're not big fans of the Shrek one, and they don't like the Yes Virginia one at all. Of course, they're boys, so maybe that's why they don't like the Virginia one.

[brevity]

I hesitate to say this, but it's now April and we need to put up a poll in a couple of weeks.

15 Suggestions:
Thor (5/6)
Bridesmaids (5/13)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (5/20)
The Hangover Part II (5/27)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (5/27)
X-Men: First Class (6/3)
Super 8 (6/10)
Green Lantern (6/17)
Cars 2 (6/24)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (7/1)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (7/15)
Captain America: The First Avenger (7/22)
Cowboys & Aliens (7/29)
The Smurfs (7/29)
Other

I could be easily convinced that Bridesmaids is replaceable -- if you want a Hangover-like movie, why not wait 2 more weeks? -- but the other 14 (especially "Other") look pretty solid.

[Jarhead]

I hesitate to say this, but it's now April and we need to put up a poll in a couple of weeks.

15 Suggestions:
Thor (5/6)
Bridesmaids (5/13)
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (5/20)
The Hangover Part II (5/27)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (5/27)
X-Men: First Class (6/3)
Super 8 (6/10)
Green Lantern (6/17)
Cars 2 (6/24)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (7/1)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (7/15)
Captain America: The First Avenger (7/22)
Cowboys & Aliens (7/29)
The Smurfs (7/29)
Other

I could be easily convinced that Bridesmaids is replaceable -- if you want a Hangover-like movie, why not wait 2 more weeks? -- but the other 14 (especially "Other") look pretty solid.

Looks like my Roku is going to get quite a workout this summer. What's going to be in the theaters looks pretty juvenile to me. Well, Mrs. Jarhead will definitely visit our local multiplex for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, but that's all.