Generic NFL race for the playoff discussion

[JasonEvans]

Consider this the collection point for conversation as we head down the stretch.

For all the commotion over how the AFC is sooo much better than the NFC, I think it worth noting that 2 teams that are currently at 6-3 or better in the NFC are going to fail to make the playoffs. Only 5 of Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Bears, Packers, Eagles, and Giants are going to get in. It could easily take 10-6 to make the Wild Card in the NFC.

The AFC does have more teams vying for a playoff spot though. All those 5-4 teams still feel they are very much in the race. In the NFC, I think we have pretty much defined the field as the above listed teams plus whoever comes out of the lousy NFC West.

Like most experts, I think the Bucs and Bears will be the two NFC teams unable to keep pace. In the AFC, I think the Titans will surge down the stretch and one of the Steelers or Ravens will falter.

-Jason "ok, now everyone else chime in " Evans

[hedevil]

I'm excited about the slow to start San Diego Chargers' chances. Suddenly they are getting everyone back from injury or holdouts, and with all the talk about Manning and Vick, Philip Rivers is tearing defenses apart (he's on pace to break Marino's all time single season passing yards record). For myself, Rivers is the MVP this year so far, and will prove/earn it in the second half of the season. Looking forward, they are likely to go on their annual run and win out the remainder of the season, which would be enough to win the AFC West. Playoffs? We'll see how that goes this year. This is one of those years where everything is wide open.

[pfrduke]

Go Niners!*

*brought to you by the NFC West, where 3-6 puts you right in the thick of the playoff hunt.

[JasonEvans]

The absurd divisions between the have and the have-nots continued to grow in the NFC this weekend. All the top teams won (except the Giants, who were playing another top team). Virtually all the lower-tier teams lost.

As a result, we now have 6 teams at 7-3 or better with only 4 playoff spots available to them. What's more -- the Giants (who many think are the best team in the NFC) are now 6-4. In the race for the 4 spots, they are in 7th.

But, things are about to start shaking themselves out. All these teams have tough contests this coming week and we should soon start to separate contenders from pretenders.

The Packers come to Atlanta this Sunday in a huge game. A victory for the Falcons (who have not lost at home since something like the Eisenhower administration) would come darn close to locking up a playoff spot for the Falcons. A loss would seriously muddle the playoff picture.

The Saints face a tough task going to Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys suddenly look like the kind of team everyone thought they would be and appear to be firing on all cylinders on offense. Dallas, as insane as it sounds, probably thinks it still has a playoff shot if it can get to 9-7. Plus, the Cowboys seem to always play hard on Thanksgiving.

Tampa goes to Baltimore. If the Bucs win there, they prove they are not a fluke. A loss though and their entire playoff hopes would likely rest on the game next week against Atlanta.

Chicago has a similar opportunity to prove it belongs. Da Bears host Da Eagles. It will be fun to watch the speedy Chicago defense take on the speed of Michael Vick. Vick had a merely mortal game against the Giants. Will he be less than superhuman two weeks in a row?

Finally, the Giants host Jacksonville in a matchup of two teams that are 6-4. The winner is thrust into the middle of the playoff picture and the loser will be in some serious trouble.

I can't wait! Gonna be a great, great weekend of football.

Oh, the NFC West continues to be led by the Seahawks by a game over the Rams. Somehow, the football gods are going to allow one of these wretched teams into the palyoffs and even let them host a playoff game. It is an affront to fair-minded people everywhere! Pa-thetic!

--Jason "in the AFC, aside from the Jets and Pats seeming safe, it is a total jumbled mess" Evans

[rasputin]

Oh, the NFC West continues to be led by the Seahawks by a game over the Rams. Somehow, the football gods are going to allow one of these wretched teams into the palyoffs and even let them host a playoff game. It is an affront to fair-minded people everywhere! Pa-thetic!

--Jason "in the AFC, aside from the Jets and Pats seeming safe, it is a total jumbled mess" Evans

That's what you get when you have four-team divisions plus wild cards. And it's why the idea of adding another layer to baseball playoffs is absurd. At least in football you only have a 16-game regular season, so it's sometimes hard to say whether team x or team y was more deserving. Not so for a 162-game baseball schedule.

[ncexnyc]

I sure no one is surprised to see that Childress fnally got axed in Minny, especially after that stinker of a game yesterday.

[JasonEvans]

I sure no one is surprised to see that Childress fnally got axed in Minny, especially after that stinker of a game yesterday.

The Packers are the coach-killers. First they got Wade whacked and now Childress has been canned.

--Jason "I hope Mike Smith survives the Falcons vs. Packers this weekend " Evans

[hedevil]

Once again, my man Philip Rivers shows why he should be the MVP on MNF. As a whole, the Chargers just needed to get healthy this year, and their finally getting healthy when it counts. Slow start. Strong finish!

[JasonEvans]

Once again, my man Philip Rivers shows why he should be the MVP on MNF. As a whole, the Chargers just needed to get healthy this year, and their finally getting healthy when it counts. Slow start. Strong finish!

I had a 21 point lead coming into the MNF game in a crucial Fantasy Football matchup in the league I really care about. I was in 4th place (10 teams) and a win would go a long way toward ensuring I would make the 6-team playoff.

And then that #^@&!^@!@^ Rivers had a 22+ point night and I lost. Now I am in 6th place. Grrrrrr.

--Jason "so, I sorta HATE Rivers right now" Evans

[ThePublisher]

I'm picking the Falcons to represent the NFC in the playoffs. Their defense just gets better every week and the offense is practically unstoppable. Their only real loss all year was being tricked by the Eagles and thoroughly beaten. This was while Vick was injured.
I believe with Vick playing how he is, the Eagles are the best team in the NFC. I think the only team who can beat them in the team who has already been beaten by them once this year, and knows Vick and how to stop him better than anyone in the league.

It's looking like a Patriots/Steelers v Falcons/Eagles Superbowl.

[hurleyfor3]

I'm picking the Falcons to represent the NFC in the playoffs. Their defense just gets better every week and the offense is practically unstoppable. Their only real loss all year was being tricked by the Eagles and thoroughly beaten. This was while Vick was injured.

Losing to the Steelers (when Roethlisberger wasn't playing) doesn't count? See you in the Super Bowl.

I have a hunch an 11-5 AFC team will get shut out of the playoffs.

[Turk]

I think the AFC is pretty much sorted out with the usual suspects. NE, NYJ, PIT, BAL, IND, and whomever survives the West at 9-7 (let's say SD for now although I'm rooting for the Chefs) will be jockeying for seeding position from here on out. Everyone else is either damaged goods or has a bad schedule the rest of the way.

There will be a very good playoff-worthy 11-5 NFC team that will get hosed because an 8-8 team is going to win the NFC West.

[cato]

I think the AFC is pretty much sorted out with the usual suspects. NE, NYJ, PIT, BAL, IND, and whomever survives the West at 9-7 (let's say SD for now although I'm rooting for the Chefs) will be jockeying for seeding position from here on out. Everyone else is either damaged goods or has a bad schedule the rest of the way.

There will be a very good playoff-worthy 11-5 NFC team that will get hosed because an 8-8 team is going to win the NFC West.

Not too much to disagree with, except that I'd guess that AFC West winner is 10-6.

[JasonEvans]

Not too much to disagree with, except that I'd guess that AFC West winner is 10-6.

Anyone know if there is a way the NFC West could be won by a team that is 7-9? I would LOVE to see that happen just for the absurdity of it. It may be hard to pull off because those teams play each other so much and someone has to win each time that happens

-Jason "we could get a 7-9 or 8-8 team hosting a team with 11 or maybe even 12 wins in the playoffs-- ridiculous!" Evans

[juise]

-Jason "we could get a 7-9 or 8-8 team hosting a team with 11 or maybe even 12 wins in the playoffs-- ridiculous!" Evans

Granted, 7-9 looks MUCH uglier than 9-7. But... the is somewhat similar to what happened two years ago when 9-7 Arizona hosted 11-5 Atlanta before beating 12-4 Carolina (and ultimately 9-6-1 Philly to reach the SB). So, as absurd as it would seem, even more absurd events could follow.

[hedevil]

The Patriots nor Steelers have a chance at reaching the Super Bowl. A depleted San Diego team held the Pats to 179 total yards of offense earlier this year. Granted the Chargers lost, however, keep in mind that the Chargers are getting healthy now. Last time I checked the Chargers are 5-5. I don't see how they can go 9-7, or even 10-6. The Chargers will win from here on out like they do every year, which would put them at 11-5. Remaining schedule: @ depleted Colts. Chargers have won 4 of last 5 vs Manning and the Colts. Home for Raiders and Chiefs, 49ers, at Bengals, and at Denver. All pretty winnable games, especially considering the return of Rivers' 3 best recievers, and the return of Antonio Gates. I see this years Super Bowl in the Chargers' future.

[hedevil]

Scratch the Colts.

5 to go.


Go Chargers!

[tommy]

I'm just about ready to scratch the Steelers too. They haven't had a win over a playoff quality team since Week 3, since then losing to the Ravens, Saints, and Patriots. They've won squeakers over Cincinnati, Miami (where the Dolphins were robbed of the win) and now Buffalo, which Pittsburgh has to be on their hands and knees thanking the Gods for that one.

The schedule isn't terrible, but they still have to go to Baltimore this coming Sunday night and play the Jets, and they close at much improved Cleveland. Sometimes you just get the feeling that a given year is the Steelers' year. With their record, they're still in good shape to make the playoffs, but I don't feel this is their year at all. Not with their week to week performance and how many AFC teams just appear to be straight up better teams.

[tommy]

Anyone know if there is a way the NFC West could be won by a team that is 7-9? I would LOVE to see that happen just for the absurdity of it. It may be hard to pull off because those teams play each other so much and someone has to win each time that happens

-Jason "we could get a 7-9 or 8-8 team hosting a team with 11 or maybe even 12 wins in the playoffs-- ridiculous!" Evans

Not only could the NFC West be won by a team that is 7-9, it could be won by a team that is 6-10. Here's how:

St. Louis and Seattle currently sit at 5-6, Arizona and SF at 3-7 going into tonight's game.

St. Louis beats SF when they play, but loses to Arizona and Seattle, as well as the two other, non-division games on their schedule. They end up 6-10.

Seattle loses their remaining game to SF but beats St. Louis in their remaining matchup and loses their other 3 non-division games. They end up 6-10.

The 49ers win remaining games with Arizona and Seattle, but lose to St. Louis and the other Arizona game, and their other 2 non-division games. They're 5-11.

Arizona, as stated above, splits with the 49ers, beats the Rams, and loses their 3 non-division games. They're 5-11.

You end up with Seattle and the Rams tying for the division at 6-10, with the other two at 5-11. Would be awesome!!

[JasonEvans]

First of all, that was truly awesome Tommy! Great research. I gave you pitchfork points for it!!

As for the playoff race, with 5 weeks to go a ton can still happen. But, here is how I see things shaking out--

In the AFC, the question is if 10 wins will get you into the playoffs.

• The Jets and Pats (each at 9-2) are all but in. Hard to see either of them collapsing enough to not make it.
• The Steelers and Ravens (each at 8-3) are darn close to in too. I think it takes 3 wins for each of them to feel safe though. They each have 3 home games left.
• The winner of the AFC South will get a spot and all 4 teams are very much alive in that division. I have a very hard time seeing any of them getting into the wild card mix.
• The Chargers (6-5) are the team making a mess of things right now. 4 wins in a row and most people feel they are among the top few teams in all of football right now. Their schedule is pretty easy with KC (in San Diego) as the only team left with a winning record. I think you can pencil in the Chargers for at least a 4-1 closing stretch and they could run the table. KC sits atop the division at 7-5 and will need at least 3 wins to make the playoffs.

My bet is that we end up with a 10-6 team left at home, barely missing the wild card. The Chiefs, with just a 4-4 conference record, should probably be worried.

In the NFC, it again looks like we could have a 10-6 team staying home.

• The Falcons (9-2) should be safe. They have 2 games left with the awful Panthers and are eying home field advantage.
• But, they have to hold off the Saints (8-3). The Monday night game on 12/27 in Atlanta likely determines the division winner. The Falcons are awesome at home though so I would expect the Saints to settle for a Wild Card... even though they may have 11 or 12 wins.
• Tampa (7-4) wants to believe they are in the mix and they have some very winnable games down the stretch. They should be able to go 3-2 to get to 10-6, They host Atlanta this week in the biggest game Tampa has played at home in something like a decade.
• The Eagles and Giants both have 7 wins and will play each other in a few weeks, but I have a very hard time seeing both of them getting more than 10 wins. One will win the division and the other is likely in a dogfight with another 10-win team for the last wild card.
• The Bears continue to surprise and now sit at 8-3 ahead of the Packers by a game. They play each other the last week of the season in Green Bay but it will take some work for the Bears to make that game relevant. The Bears have a brutal final stretch including games with NE and the Jets. Even their easy games (at Det, at Minn) are on the road. I could see the Bears faltering to a 1-4 closing stretch. The Pack also have a tough closing stretch of games including NE, the Giants, and a resurgent San Fran. It will be tough, but I bet they get to 10 wins. I don't see anyone in this division getting to 11 wins though.
• The NFC WestWorst will be won by someone who stinks. I am not sure who it will be and I am not sure any of them will even get to 8 wins to do it. Disgusting. I cannot pick one because they all have losable games left on their schedule.

My current picks--

AFC- Pats and Ravens get byes plus the Chargers and Colts with the Jets and Steelers as wild cards.

NFC- Falcons and Packers get byes with the Eagles and some awful NFC West team winning divisions. I've got the Saints and Bears as my wild cards.

--Jason "just guessing!" Evans