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  1. #21
    Like what? Lead his team to a World Series title? Pretty sure he already did that.

    Is Don Larsen the greatest pitcher ever then?

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades View Post
    Like what? Lead his team to a World Series title? Pretty sure he already did that.

    Is Don Larsen the greatest pitcher ever then?
    Please. It's not complicated. You said their numbers were comparable. Now CC has some work to do to keep them that way.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Please. It's not complicated. You said their numbers were comparable. Now CC has some work to do to keep them that way.
    Their numbers are comparable. 1 start doesn't change that, does it? Halladay passed his 1st test with flying colors... there will be more of them.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades View Post
    Their numbers are comparable. 1 start doesn't change that, does it? Halladay passed his 1st test with flying colors... there will be more of them.
    Well, two more. Maybe three.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades View Post
    Halladay passed his 1st test with flying colors
    That is one way of putting it.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Post-season numbers in the past are not predictive of future post-season performance. Even for guys who have been several times, the sample size is absurdly small.

    Or, read the chapter in Jonah Keri's (ed) book, "Why Billy Beane's **** doesn't work in the playoffs."

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Dallas
    Yea! The Rangers won in October! Most of us locally in North Texas tune out baseball once October rolls around. Now we may have a reason to keep talking baseball.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I take exception to the suggestion that the Yanks are "toast." C'mon, Jason, that's a bit over the top and I think you're just trying to be provocative.

    ...

    Underdogs ... but even then, I wouldn't call them "toast".
    Ozzie, my friend, did you not read the last line of my post?

    Not sure I agree with all that, but it should get the conversation started,
    I was just trying to get folks talking. Putting down the Yankees is always a good way to do that

    --Jason "FWIW, I think the Yankees with their series but then lose to the winner of the Rays-Rangers series" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #29
    I wonder if Jeter being a **** and faking the HBP earlier this year might have slightly effected that missed call on the catch on the last out in the Yankee game.

    I don't remember if it was mentioned in the thread discussing Jeter's antics, but loss of credibility, negative first impressions of a team could have a subconscious impact on the umps in situations like that.

    Just a thought... and it seems to have worked out for Mariano anyway.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ozzie, my friend, did you not read the last line of my post?



    I was just trying to get folks talking. Putting down the Yankees is always a good way to do that

    --Jason "FWIW, I think the Yankees with their series but then lose to the winner of the Rays-Rangers series" Evans
    Jason, ol' buddy ol' pal, I posted after your post but wasn't really responding to it. Just stating a fact or two.

    And when it comes down to crunch time, when you say Mo, you've said it all!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    https://ecogreen.greentechaffiliate.com

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE View Post
    And when it comes down to crunch time, when you say Mo, you've said it all!
    A-men to that.

    Here in Atlanta there has been talk about Billy Wagner, who is retiring after this season, and whether he is a Hall of Famer. I think one of the difficulty relievers have been having at getting into the Hall is that they all pale in comparison to The Big Mo. none of them can say they were the best at their position during their era because the best has been the best for a looong time.

    --Jason "I wonder what Mo's career would have been like if he had been a starter" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #32

    neyer's take

    In view of the debate over Sabathia in this thread and in the Cy Young thread, I thought you might want to check out Riob Neyer's postgame blog after the Yankees-Twins game:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ctly-typically

    From the article: "Liriano outpitched Sabathia for six months, and there wasn't any particularly good reason to think Liriano wouldn't outpitch Sabathia in tonight's particular game."

    A few points:

    -- One, I usually like and respect Neyer's analysis -- he is one of the best of Bill James' disciples. He understands the new stats and understands the limitations that they offer.

    -- Two, he hates the Yankees. Always has and always will.

    -- Last night, he let his hate for the Yankees overwhelm his good judgement. The assertion that Liriano pitched better this year than Sabathia -- based on strikeout/walk ratio and home runs allowed ratio is nuts. Those are valuable stats, but hardly trump the two areas where Sabatha was significantly better than Liriano: ERA and innings pitched.

    I'm not talking about run support. I quite agree that you can use the Yankees' superior offense to explain the difference between Sabathia's 21 wins and Liriano's 14 wins (just as I would accept that King Felix DID have a better year than Sabathia, based on his ERA and innings pitched and not on his 13 wins).

    But how does Neyer get around the fact that Sabathia had a significantly lower ERA than Liriano -- 3.18 to 3.62 (almost half a run per game; plus Sabathia pitched half his games in a significantly better hitter's park) -- over significantly more innings (237.2 to 191.1)?

    Well, his argument is muddled, but he essentially combines the Yankees offense (which explains the difference in wins, but not ERA and IP) with those strikeout/walk ratio and home run ratio to imply that Sabratha was merely lucky.

    This is the part of the debate that baffles me, coming from Neyer. The sabremticians have a toy they've been playing with -- batting average of balls put in play. The idea is that when you subtract walks, strikeouts and home runs, you get the balls put in play. According to the theory, all pitchers should have the same average on balls put in play ... obviously they don't. One idea is that the reason they don't is luck.

    It's an interesting idea with some support -- there have been pitchers whose averasge allowed on balls in play has varied widely over the years. Then there are guys who seem to defy the odds and have low averages year after year. Bill James noted that for some reason, knuckleballers seem to be immune to the rule. Some stat guys are trying to measure the radio of hardhit balls vs. balls are are topped and popped up. Do ground ball pitchers do better in this stat than fly ball pitchers?

    Anyway, it's a great toy and may tell us something this year, but we don't really understand it well enough to apply it -- and certainly not tio trump ERA. Neyer is usually great about separating those stats that we can rely on (OBP or WHIP) from those that aren't reliable measures (he's one of the most astute critics of zone ratings on defense).

    In this case, I think he let his hatred of the Yankees overwhelm his good judgement. Sabatha maybe not has pitched as well as King Felix this season ... and maybe not as well as David Price ... but he was unquestionably better than Liriano.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Rays rule, even if the have no fans. Everyone knows the team is being blown up in the offseason and will soon be moving out of Tampa. Can the team ignore all that and just play great baseball?
    It would appear not. Oh, and James Worthy feels his nickname has been misapplied.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Partly Orlando, FL partly heard Sandpoint, ID
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    In view of the debate over Sabathia in this thread and in the Cy Young thread, I thought you might want to check out Riob Neyer's postgame blog after the Yankees-Twins game:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ctly-typically

    From the article: "Liriano outpitched Sabathia for six months, and there wasn't any particularly good reason to think Liriano wouldn't outpitch Sabathia in tonight's particular game."

    A few points:

    -- One, I usually like and respect Neyer's analysis -- he is one of the best of Bill James' disciples. He understands the new stats and understands the limitations that they offer.

    -- Two, he hates the Yankees. Always has and always will.

    -- Last night, he let his hate for the Yankees overwhelm his good judgement. The assertion that Liriano pitched better this year than Sabathia -- based on strikeout/walk ratio and home runs allowed ratio is nuts. Those are valuable stats, but hardly trump the two areas where Sabatha was significantly better than Liriano: ERA and innings pitched.

    I'm not talking about run support. I quite agree that you can use the Yankees' superior offense to explain the difference between Sabathia's 21 wins and Liriano's 14 wins (just as I would accept that King Felix DID have a better year than Sabathia, based on his ERA and innings pitched and not on his 13 wins).

    But how does Neyer get around the fact that Sabathia had a significantly lower ERA than Liriano -- 3.18 to 3.62 (almost half a run per game; plus Sabathia pitched half his games in a significantly better hitter's park) -- over significantly more innings (237.2 to 191.1)?

    Well, his argument is muddled, but he essentially combines the Yankees offense (which explains the difference in wins, but not ERA and IP) with those strikeout/walk ratio and home run ratio to imply that Sabratha was merely lucky.

    This is the part of the debate that baffles me, coming from Neyer. The sabremticians have a toy they've been playing with -- batting average of balls put in play. The idea is that when you subtract walks, strikeouts and home runs, you get the balls put in play. According to the theory, all pitchers should have the same average on balls put in play ... obviously they don't. One idea is that the reason they don't is luck.

    It's an interesting idea with some support -- there have been pitchers whose averasge allowed on balls in play has varied widely over the years. Then there are guys who seem to defy the odds and have low averages year after year. Bill James noted that for some reason, knuckleballers seem to be immune to the rule. Some stat guys are trying to measure the radio of hardhit balls vs. balls are are topped and popped up. Do ground ball pitchers do better in this stat than fly ball pitchers?

    Anyway, it's a great toy and may tell us something this year, but we don't really understand it well enough to apply it -- and certainly not tio trump ERA. Neyer is usually great about separating those stats that we can rely on (OBP or WHIP) from those that aren't reliable measures (he's one of the most astute critics of zone ratings on defense).

    In this case, I think he let his hatred of the Yankees overwhelm his good judgement. Sabatha maybe not has pitched as well as King Felix this season ... and maybe not as well as David Price ... but he was unquestionably better than Liriano.
    I didn't see the comments you referred to, but elsewhere I've seen reference to people's feeling that Liriano, though no one would point to him as winning, should be in the Cy Young discussion. Mostly it is based upon a statistic that you reference, called FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching. Basically, the idea is that if you penalize a pitcher for walks and homeruns, but reward them for strikeouts, you can gain a better understanding of how well they pitched that doesn't get affected by how well their fielders played behind them. The basic formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP - it also penalizes hit batsmen, but not intentional walks, since that's not the pitcher's fault, so to speak. Also, in order to get the FIP number to be like an ERA, they add a sort of league average(around 3 I think) to it so it resembles ERA. Basically, it really rewards strikeout pitchers that don't walk many folks. And of course, if you don't allow many homeruns you get a big boost. But homeruns in particular seem a rather random stat that has significant variation and so in trying to eliminate the luck factor, they use what I think is a luck factor. Its an interesting concept, but definitely needs more work before it can be used seriously IMO.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Deslok View Post
    But homeruns in particular seem a rather random stat that has significant variation and so in trying to eliminate the luck factor, they use what I think is a luck factor. Its an interesting concept, but definitely needs more work before it can be used seriously IMO.
    One way to do that would be to normalize it somewhat by taking the league average HR/FB ratio and apply it to the pitcher's GB/FB ratio, which would give you the pitcher's "expected" home runs. Obviously, not everyone is going to pitch to league average, and avoiding home runs is not entirely luck. But there may be a meaningful weighting device to apply to find some number between actual home runs allowed and expected home runs allowed that reflects the pitcher's "true" (i.e., with as much luck as possible removed) performance. Other than in concept, though, this analysis is beyond this History/English major's capabilities.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE View Post
    And when it comes down to crunch time, when you say Mo, you've said it all!
    You can say this again!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    https://ecogreen.greentechaffiliate.com

  17. #37

    yankees up 2-0

    How about a little love for Mr. Pettitte ... hurt all August and September ..,. shakey in three rehab starts ...

    ... then the bell rings and he's Mr. October (sorry, Reggie) once again.

    That's his 19th postseason win ... the most in baseball history.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    How about a little love for Mr. Pettitte ... hurt all August and September ..,. shakey in three rehab starts ...

    ... then the bell rings and he's Mr. October (sorry, Reggie) once again.

    That's his 19th postseason win ... the most in baseball history.
    I was happy to see Big Puma, aka Fat Elvis step up. He'd been really bad since the trade from Houston to the point I thought he was washed up (and he may be). But he is still one of the best pure hitters around when he's engaged.

  19. #39

    Lincecum vs. Halladay

    I know thios involves two National League pitchers, but it has a direct bearing on what we've been talking about in this thread --the controversy over the new pitching stats, such as FIP.

    It turns out that Tim Lincecom's two-hit, one-walk shutout of the Braves was a better pitching before than Halladay's one-walk n0-hitter against the Reds:

    http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/1...-halladays/?hp

    Don't ask me to defend it ... as I've argued, I think the new stat in this case still needs to be tweeked. A system that says that Liriano with his higher ERA in less innings had a better year than Sabathia and now claims that (walks equal), a two-hitter (both ringing doubles by the way) is superior to a no-hitter ... I'd say that stat needs to go back to the drawing board.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I know thios involves two National League pitchers, but it has a direct bearing on what we've been talking about in this thread --the controversy over the new pitching stats, such as FIP.

    It turns out that Tim Lincecom's two-hit, one-walk shutout of the Braves was a better pitching before than Halladay's one-walk n0-hitter against the Reds:

    http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/1...-halladays/?hp

    Don't ask me to defend it ... as I've argued, I think the new stat in this case still needs to be tweeked. A system that says that Liriano with his higher ERA in less innings had a better year than Sabathia and now claims that (walks equal), a two-hitter (both ringing doubles by the way) is superior to a no-hitter ... I'd say that stat needs to go back to the drawing board.
    Sorry, but I don't believe a stats person such as yourself is allowed to use the term, "ringing
    double." That phrase is reserved for folks like me who go by the eyeball test.

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