Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 124

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs

    AL Playoffs Thread

    Predictions, discussions, comments go here.

    Let me get you started --

    1) The Yankees are toast. They simply do not have the starters to compete and their offense is getting really, really old. Still, the Twins have a long history of rolling over and playing dead against the Yankees. The series will turn on game one. If the Twins lose, they will not come back.

    2) After a long layoff from meaningful games, are the Rangers ready for an offensive explosion? Is Josh Hamilton really back? Afte a woeful August, is Cliff Lee dominant again?

    3) The Rays rule, even if the have no fans. Everyone knows the team is being blown up in the offseason and will soon be moving out of Tampa. Can the team ignore all that and just play great baseball?

    --Jason "not sure I agree with all that, but it should get the conversation started" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    If Duke shoots well, they win. If the Yankees hit well, they win. Both have an excellent chance of repeating their championships!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    1) The Yankees are toast. They simply do not have the starters to compete and their offense is getting really, really old. Still, the Twins have a long history of rolling over and playing dead against the Yankees. The series will turn on game one. If the Twins lose, they will not come back.
    If the yankees don't have the starters to compete, which may indeed be the case, why would the series turn on game 1, when the yankees have their lone starter who can unquestionably compete? If anything, your first point would suggest that game 1 is the only game the Twins can afford to lose. And I suppose I'm curious why the age of the yankees' offense is more important than the fact that they led the majors in runs (though they did have a relatively weak offensive september).
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  4. #4
    The Yankees post-season hinges so much on Andy Pettitte. If he returns to the form he had earlier in the season then they will end up playing the Phillies for the World Series (again). If he struggles they could be out in the 1st round. Personally I think he will do well enough to keep them in his games.

    I'm not too concerned about the late-season slump. The Yankees rarely had their full lineup going. I think calling them "toast" is a huge stretch. They have the best lineup, the best starter and the best closer of any team left. Do they have more question marks than usual? Yes. Are they still the favorites to come out of the AL? Also yes.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades View Post
    The Yankees rarely had their full lineup going. I think calling them "toast" is a huge stretch. They have the best lineup, the best starter and the best closer of any team left.
    Wait, what?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Wait, what?
    Who would you rather have? Halladay? They put up comparable numbers (when you take into account the AL/NL differences). CC has post-season experience and will take the ball every 4th day which I think gives him the edge over Halladay right now.

    Cliff Lee? Maybe last year but his 2nd half wasn't quite up to his usual standards.

    David Price? Young guy, no post-season experience.

    I think everyone would love to have Felix Hernandez but he's not in the discussion right now.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades View Post
    Who would you rather have? Halladay? They put up comparable numbers (when you take into account the AL/NL differences). CC has post-season experience and will take the ball every 4th day which I think gives him the edge over Halladay right now.

    Cliff Lee? Maybe last year but his 2nd half wasn't quite up to his usual standards.

    David Price? Young guy, no post-season experience.

    I think everyone would love to have Felix Hernandez but he's not in the discussion right now.
    Halladay, Oswalt and Price.

    I'm not sure why it makes sense to bring up the AL/NL difference for Halladay - I think he's more than proven himself capable of handling AL lineups. And it's simply not true to say that Price has no post-season experience.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Halladay, Oswalt and Price.

    I'm not sure why it makes sense to bring up the AL/NL difference for Halladay - I think he's more than proven himself capable of handling AL lineups. And it's simply not true to say that Price has no post-season experience.
    If you want to compare the season Halladay is having to the season Sabathia is having then you have to factor in the AL/NL difference. There's a reason that like 75% of the top ERA pitchers all come from the NL. Sabathia's only time spent in the NL he had a 1.65 ERA (for half a season). They're both great pitchers but one of them has led a team to a World Series title and the other hasn't thrown an inning of post-season baseball.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Halladay, Oswalt and Price.
    Maybe not today - so far 4 runs and 7 hits in 4 innings, including 2 hr and a double.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Maybe not today - so far 4 runs and 7 hits in 4 innings, including 2 hr and a double.


    Whattaya gonna do.

  11. #11

    yankees twins

    I take exception to the suggestion that the Yanks are "toast." C'mon, Jason, that's a bit over the top and I think you're just trying to be provocative.

    That said, I do think the Yankees-Twins series is a tossup. The Twins do have a mental hump to get over, but it is possible to get over such humps as the Red Sopx proved in 2004.

    I do agree with Jason that a lot will turn on Game 1 -- Sabathia is easily the Yankee ace and he's the only guy we can count on for a well-pitched game. But Liriano is really good too.

    The tough thing for me to swallow would be in Pavano shuts us down in game 2. We paid the guy a fortune and he was unable to pitch while on our payroll. Then the minute he leaves NY, his ailing arm recovers and he's suddenly effective again.

    I just don't know what to expect for Pettite. I know he didn't win in his three late-season starts and his ERA in those three outings wasn't good, but if you actually watched him in those games, I thought his performance was encouraging ... I thought he was treating the games almost like rehab starts.

    Pettite is one of the great postseason pitchers in baseball history -- 40 postseason starts, 18-9 record with a 3.90 ERA (4-0 in 2009 postseason). He's pitched more deciding game victories than any player in postseason history.

    That's one of the most interesting things I'll be watchiong for -- can the Yankees' old dogs turn it on when the lights come on. Will Derek Jeter be Derek Jeter or will he be the inferior replica we've seen most of this season. Will Pettite and Rivera and Posada summon up their legendary postseason skill level ... or will they finally surrender to age?

    I honestly don't know. As I said, I think it's 50-50 against the Twins ... and it will be 50-50 against the Rays or the Rangers. It won't be until (and if) we meet the Phillies in the World Series that I'll feel like the Yankees are real underdogs.

    Underdogs ... but even then, I wouldn't call them "toast".

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Will Pettite and Rivera and Posada summon up their legendary postseason skill level ... or will they finally surrender to age?
    Pettitte and obviously Rivera are worthy of legend, but Posada? He's had some superb playoff series, but over his entire post-season career, which thankfully for yankee fans is extensive, he's been relatively pedestrian.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  13. #13

    posada

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue in the Face View Post
    Pettitte and obviously Rivera are worthy of legend, but Posada? He's had some superb playoff series, but over his entire post-season career, which thankfully for yankee fans is extensive, he's been relatively pedestrian.
    Fair enough ... legendary might be a bit strong.

    But so is pedestrian. Just by comparison, Posada's postseason OPS (.736) is better than Yankee catchers Bill Dickey (.709) and Elston Howard (.692). It's right in the middle of the great Yankee catchers -- behind Berra (.811) and Munson (.874).

  14. #14
    I guess we can stop worrying about Halladay's lack of postseason experience.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC
    So you don't like the word toast. How about bruschetta?

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I take exception to the suggestion that the Yanks are "toast." C'mon, Jason, that's a bit over the top and I think you're just trying to be provocative.

    ...

    Underdogs ... but even then, I wouldn't call them "toast".
    Ozzie, my friend, did you not read the last line of my post?

    Not sure I agree with all that, but it should get the conversation started,
    I was just trying to get folks talking. Putting down the Yankees is always a good way to do that

    --Jason "FWIW, I think the Yankees with their series but then lose to the winner of the Rays-Rangers series" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  17. #17
    I wonder if Jeter being a **** and faking the HBP earlier this year might have slightly effected that missed call on the catch on the last out in the Yankee game.

    I don't remember if it was mentioned in the thread discussing Jeter's antics, but loss of credibility, negative first impressions of a team could have a subconscious impact on the umps in situations like that.

    Just a thought... and it seems to have worked out for Mariano anyway.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ozzie, my friend, did you not read the last line of my post?



    I was just trying to get folks talking. Putting down the Yankees is always a good way to do that

    --Jason "FWIW, I think the Yankees with their series but then lose to the winner of the Rays-Rangers series" Evans
    Jason, ol' buddy ol' pal, I posted after your post but wasn't really responding to it. Just stating a fact or two.

    And when it comes down to crunch time, when you say Mo, you've said it all!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE View Post
    And when it comes down to crunch time, when you say Mo, you've said it all!
    A-men to that.

    Here in Atlanta there has been talk about Billy Wagner, who is retiring after this season, and whether he is a Hall of Famer. I think one of the difficulty relievers have been having at getting into the Hall is that they all pale in comparison to The Big Mo. none of them can say they were the best at their position during their era because the best has been the best for a looong time.

    --Jason "I wonder what Mo's career would have been like if he had been a starter" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  20. #20

    neyer's take

    In view of the debate over Sabathia in this thread and in the Cy Young thread, I thought you might want to check out Riob Neyer's postgame blog after the Yankees-Twins game:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ctly-typically

    From the article: "Liriano outpitched Sabathia for six months, and there wasn't any particularly good reason to think Liriano wouldn't outpitch Sabathia in tonight's particular game."

    A few points:

    -- One, I usually like and respect Neyer's analysis -- he is one of the best of Bill James' disciples. He understands the new stats and understands the limitations that they offer.

    -- Two, he hates the Yankees. Always has and always will.

    -- Last night, he let his hate for the Yankees overwhelm his good judgement. The assertion that Liriano pitched better this year than Sabathia -- based on strikeout/walk ratio and home runs allowed ratio is nuts. Those are valuable stats, but hardly trump the two areas where Sabatha was significantly better than Liriano: ERA and innings pitched.

    I'm not talking about run support. I quite agree that you can use the Yankees' superior offense to explain the difference between Sabathia's 21 wins and Liriano's 14 wins (just as I would accept that King Felix DID have a better year than Sabathia, based on his ERA and innings pitched and not on his 13 wins).

    But how does Neyer get around the fact that Sabathia had a significantly lower ERA than Liriano -- 3.18 to 3.62 (almost half a run per game; plus Sabathia pitched half his games in a significantly better hitter's park) -- over significantly more innings (237.2 to 191.1)?

    Well, his argument is muddled, but he essentially combines the Yankees offense (which explains the difference in wins, but not ERA and IP) with those strikeout/walk ratio and home run ratio to imply that Sabratha was merely lucky.

    This is the part of the debate that baffles me, coming from Neyer. The sabremticians have a toy they've been playing with -- batting average of balls put in play. The idea is that when you subtract walks, strikeouts and home runs, you get the balls put in play. According to the theory, all pitchers should have the same average on balls put in play ... obviously they don't. One idea is that the reason they don't is luck.

    It's an interesting idea with some support -- there have been pitchers whose averasge allowed on balls in play has varied widely over the years. Then there are guys who seem to defy the odds and have low averages year after year. Bill James noted that for some reason, knuckleballers seem to be immune to the rule. Some stat guys are trying to measure the radio of hardhit balls vs. balls are are topped and popped up. Do ground ball pitchers do better in this stat than fly ball pitchers?

    Anyway, it's a great toy and may tell us something this year, but we don't really understand it well enough to apply it -- and certainly not tio trump ERA. Neyer is usually great about separating those stats that we can rely on (OBP or WHIP) from those that aren't reliable measures (he's one of the most astute critics of zone ratings on defense).

    In this case, I think he let his hatred of the Yankees overwhelm his good judgement. Sabatha maybe not has pitched as well as King Felix this season ... and maybe not as well as David Price .... but he was unquestionably better than Liriano.

Similar Threads

  1. NL Playoffs thread
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 70
    Last Post: 10-21-2010, 08:53 PM
  2. NBA Playoffs Thread
    By Greg_Newton in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 04-18-2010, 08:51 PM
  3. NBA Playoffs Thread
    By BlueintheFace in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 513
    Last Post: 06-16-2009, 01:42 PM
  4. 2009 NHL Playoffs Thread
    By Turk in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 45
    Last Post: 06-16-2009, 09:21 AM
  5. 2008 NBA Playoffs Thread
    By wolfpackdevil in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 04-21-2008, 07:43 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •