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  1. #1

    Hall of Fame debate

    I've enjoyed some of the baseball debates we've had on this board and since it's that time of year when baseball is in the forefront, I thought I'd try a thread about on-going Hall of Fame debates.

    I was thinking about it last night when all the commentators were gushing about John Smoltz after he beat Tom Glavine and the Mets to reach 200 wins -- making him the first pitcher in baseball history to get to 200 wins and 150 saves.

    Everybody I heard on TV and almost everybody I've read on the message boards this morning agrees that Smoltz is a lock Hall of Famer. While I totally agree with that assessment, I'm not as sure he'll make it -- I keep thinking back to Jack Morris, the best pitcher in the 1980s and one of the great big-game pitchers of all time and how he's been forgotten by the voters. In the first blush of a great accomplishment -- as when Morris pitched a 10-inning shutout to beat the Braves in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series -- Morris seemed a lock for the HOF. Today, with Smoltz the big news on ESPN GameNight, he appears to be a lock ... we'll see.

    But it got me thinking -- the Braves have had one of the great runs in baseball history. True, they've only won one world championship in modern times, but their streak between 1991 and 2005 is one of the most consistent performances by any franchise in baseball history. So, I wondered, which players off the great Braves team will be honored by the Hall of Fame?

    Obviously, you start out with the Big Three -- Greg Maddox is an absolute lock and Tom Glavine is going to clinch his spot with his 300th win in a month or two. I think Smoltz will make it -- his 200 wins/150 saves is unique and his 15-4 postseason record is eye-popping. Still, it wouldn't hurt to have another couple of solid seasons ...

    But what about the position players? Will any Brave players of this era make it?

    I think Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield have a chance, but both were just passing through Atlanta and hardly count as Braves. McGriff pplayed 4 1/2 of his 19 seasons in Atlanta. Sheffield played two of 20 (and still counting) seasons in Atlanta.

    I think just two real Braves have even a chance -- the Jones boys.

    What do you think their chances are?

    Chipper is a career .304 hitter -- with a .402 OBP and a .544 SLUG. He's coming up on 2,000 hits and he's at 369 home runs. He has one MVP award, five top 10 MVP finishes and 10 top 25 MVP finishes.

    His offensive numbers are pretty good for a third baseman (he's played 1350 career games at third/341 in left field), but he's played in an explosive offensive era.

    Personally, I think he's on track for the Hall, but has a bit more to do -- he's 35 years old and he's starting to break down a lot physically.

    I can't help thinking about two of my favorite players from the 1980s: Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. Both were clearly on track for the HOF, but both lost it suddenly -- if either had had a normal decline phase to his career, he'd be in the Hall.

    I think that's Chipper's situation. If he can play another 4-5 seasons and can add another 500-600 hits and another 100 home runs without seriously damaging that glittering career OBP, I think he can make it. Even if he finishes up in the AL as a designated hitter, he'll still be remembered and judged as a third baseman (although he won't get points for his defense, he was merely an adequate defender).

    Andruw Jones both has farther to go, but is, in my mind, more likely to make it. He has 348 career home runs and 1054 RBIs at age 30 -- unless he has a Mattingly/Murphy career collapse, he's got a real shot at 600-plus home runs and 17-18,000 RBIs.

    In addition, he's working on a streak of nine straight gold gloves in center -- I know there's some debate as to how great he still is, but he's still widely regarded as the best defensive centerfielder of his generation.

    Interesting note -- at Baseball Reference, they do comparison scores with various players. None of the 10 most similar career players to Andruw are in the HOF, but when you do the comparison by age, his 10 most similar batters are ALL HOFamers -- Frank Robinson, Eddie Matthews, Johnny Bench, Ken Griffey (well, he will be in the HOF), Al Kaline and Henry Aaron!!

    Just curious what you guys think ... and who else do you see as a borderline HOF? Maybe Curt Schilling -- the reincarnation of Jack Morris?

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Washington, DC
    While the power numbers of the era skew unfavorably for Andruw and Chipper, both have remained well clear of the steroid taint and I could see that, fair or unfair, helping their HOF viability a lot. When comparing the two players, I actually see Chipper having a better chance to make it then Andruw because of the "best player" argument. Chipper has been pretty much the backbone of the Braves throughout their historic great run and is/was the undisputed offensive leader each and every year. When you think of the Braves on the offensive side of the diamond, you think of Chipper first and foremost. I think voters will look back on those Braves team and feel a need to reward someone.

    There was also a period of years where Chipper was the best third baseman in the league. The best. While Andruw may put up better career numbers (from a HR and RBI perspective), I don't think there has been any point where baseball people thought that Andruw was clearly the best CF. The best defensive CF? Sure. Best overall CF? Maybe...

    I am admittedly biased as a Braves fan. I believe Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz are shoo-ins and *hope* both the Jones boys make it. But if I had to pick one, it would be Chipper. He has meant more to the Braves and has been more "great" than Andruw.

    As for Morris, the argument against his candidacy has always been the high ERA (3.9) and the inflated record thanks to the high-powered offenses behind him. Smoltz suffers from neither of those detractions. Morris, like Smoltz, is revered for his big-game reputation. What people do not know is that Morris had average postseason numbers (7-4 3.80 ERA). Again, a far cry from Smoltz. Outside of the obvious names, I think the pitcher with the best chance to make it to the HOF is CC Sabathia. He's going to need Johan Santana to get injured so he can win a few Cy Youngs but he has the stuff and the durability to be great...

  3. #3

    Braves HOF

    Maddux, Glavine are locks.

    After that, the braves are an odd bunch of candidates.

    McGriff is probably not in. Many sluggers with good, but not overwhelming records are not in -- rice, dawson, murphy. McGriff was as steady as they come, but never hit more than 37 HR, or a 110 rbi (he was above 30, 100 a lot though). With all the bonds, ramirez, griffey, bagwell, thomas, etc. coming through he will not grade. He is probably clean however.

    Smoltz -- an odd resume. 200 W, 160 saves, and a great 3.28 career era (that is Morris' achilles heel; he is almost 4.00). Remember Eckersley was around 190 w, 300 S. I think smoltz could get in with two more good years, but no guarantee after age 40. He and Schilling will be interesting cases, behind sure SP HOF Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Pedro, Glavine.

    Andruw Jones -- a stat accumulator (unless bad start to this year portends a decline), but other than 2005 did you ever really think of him as a great player. Low BA and OBP; he will need 600 HR to make my HOF, but he might get it.

    Chipper -- one of the best offensive 3b ever. He is not a lock, but if he gets 400-450 HR he should be in.

    New Brave Renteria is on pace for 3000 H. I would not project him as a HOF, but 3000 H from a shortstop is pretty great.

    Who makes it next year: McGwire, Rice, Gossage, Raines?

  4. #4
    I think Smoltzie makes it. And I hate the Braves.

    I did attend this game, however.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...98905210.shtml

    Yes, Braves fans, baseball really did exist before 1991.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    I think Smoltzie makes it. And I hate the Braves.

    I did attend this game, however.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bo...98905210.shtml

    Yes, Braves fans, baseball really did exist before 1991.
    that box score is a fraud - the braves didnt draw 36,000 fans all year, let alone one game, in 1989.

    back on point - as much as I like Chipper and Andruw - I dont think either should get in the hall. Both are excellent players, but I dont think either can be classified as one of the best ever. Chipper was awesome offensively at third, but I think his inability to stay healthy late in his career will hurt him, and I dont think position players will be given the Koufax treatment. Throughout this run the braves had - i think the big 3 pitchers are the only ones in.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by steven52682 View Post
    that box score is a fraud - the braves didnt draw 36,000 fans all year, let alone one game, in 1989.
    There was a Beach Boys concert after the game. The best seats we could find were in the upper deck.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Chipper Jones is a lock for the Hall.

    Folks here forget that he is a switch-hitter. He is easily the greatest switch-hitter of his generation and goes alongside Eddie Murray as the 2nd greatest switch-hitter ever behind Mickey Mantle. Chipper is the only switch-hitter in baseball history to hit .300 for his career and also hit more than 300 homeruns.

    He has won an MVP award and been in the top 10 in the MVP balloting 5 other times. And he has played in a sick number of post-season games. Guys on the Braves are going to get an extra push for the Hall because of the team's amazing playoff run and because, for a long time, the Braves were the most nationally televised team around. There are sportswriters across the country who watched 100+ Braves games a year and knew the Braves as well as they knew their hometown team. That will help Chipper a great deal.

    I think Andruw is in if he does not slump badly over the next few years. His rep as perhaps the best defensive CF ever will be his calling card along with some sick career offensive stats (though I agree that he is a strikeout machine and swings for the fences too much).

    Smoltz, like Chipper, is a virtual lock. His career numbers are quite good and his post-season success is unmatched. It will carry some weight that he is still a dominating pitcher at the age of 40. He would seem to be likely to make his 8th All-star team this season... at the age of 40.

    --Jason "then again, I am a Braves homer " Evans

  8. #8
    Join Date
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    New York City

    Almost Locks

    I think Smoltz and Chipper will make it. Smoltz will make it if he retires today based on his consistency, longevity, big game performances, character and the fact that he was one of the best in the game as a starter and a closer.

    Chipper will be in unless he goes Mario Mendoza for the next three years.

    I think Glavine is a lock if he retires tomorrow also.

    Andruw Jones is a little uncertain only because he is relatively young so you don't know what's gonna happen during the next 8-10 years. However, I'd bet on him getting in for two reasons. First, he started his career so young that he is likely to put up very gaudy career numbers (like Robin Yount). Second, he is considered the premier defensive outfielder of his generation and many people conisder him the best or second best (behind Mays) defensive outfielder of all time. He plays a position that is so crucial that it can be a major factor in the HOF voting.

    As far as other borderline candidates, Gary Sheffield comes to mind. Players who are on track to be borderline candidates: Andy Pettitte (34 years old - 189 wins; 3.78 ERA in a home run era - I think he makes it if he gets to 250 career wins - his winning percentage is great); Carlos Delgado (great HR and RBI stats and could finish with 550 career HRs - also 34); David Ortiz (that will be an interesting case depending on what he does the next 5 years - unlikely to make it because of being a DH primarily and "starting" his career late - but has put together as dominating a 3-4 year stretch as anyone in the current era other than Bonds); Miguel Tejada (only 31, very consistent stats the last 8 years, hasn't missed a game in years); Mussina (already has 240 career wins and a 3.66 ERA - double digit wins every year since 1992 but never won 20 - a strike three against Everett would have sealed it);

    Other locks who are still playing:

    Clemens
    Bonds
    Jeter
    Manny
    Biggio
    Maddux
    Vlad (.325 career ave. - 350 HRs - only 31 - unless he pulls a Murphy)
    ARod
    Frank Thomas
    Big Unit
    Piazza
    Pedro
    Griffey
    Pudge
    Rivera

    If I had to pick two guys younger than 30 who I think are locks, I'd go with Pujols and Johan Santana. And the best bet in the under 25 group is Miguel Cabrera - he's 24 with a .312 career ave. and already has 112 HRs.

    I'm sure I'm leaving some obvious ones out.

  9. #9

    HOF Debate

    I agree with what I think is the emerging consensus on '90's-era Braves: Maddux, Glavine no-brainers, Chipper and Smoltz in, Andruw Jones a tougher call. Will have hit a ton of homers for a CF and obviously patrols the outfield as well as anyone, but if you're going to be a power hitter gunning for the Hall of Fame, I'd suggest something better than an .848 career OPS. His career batting average is just .265.

    I agree with all the locks on Mr. Synellinden's excellent rundown. Great call on Vlad - his career numbers are pretty eye-popping. A couple of the other borderline guys that he didn't mention include Jeff Kent (350 homers and 1400 RBI for a 2B is a lot), Jim Thome (will have 500+ homers, .975 career OPS) and Lance Berkman (he's been quietly racking up some very impressive stats the last 6 years, leading to 3 top 5's in MVP voting in the Pujols-Bonds era, and is only 31).

    Feelings on the other borderline names:

    I think Delgado is marginal at best. His career HRs and OPS won't be quite as high as Thome's, so they'll both have to go for Delgado to be in, and I think their numbers will be seen as era-inflated and a little one-dimensional.

    If Andy Pettitte makes it, (a) I will cry, and (b) it will be solely because of his Yankee status. He's never been dominant, with an ERA under 3.25 just two seasons in his entire career (one of those in a weak, no-DH NL of 2005). If he has another 5 effective but not dominating years, he will get a lot of East Coast votes, given his pinstripes (and WS rings). But he is not, in my humble opinion, a Hall of Famer by any stretch. Even on all those championship Yankees teams, his postseason career record is just 14-9 with a 4+ ERA.

    Mike Mussina will not make the Hall of Fame before Bert Blyleven. If he does, I will personally see to it that Canton goes up in flames.

    Interesting inclusion of Big Papi. If he can do what he's done the last 4 years for the next 4, I say he's in despite the DH status. He's been a notch above Edgar Martinez at his peak, and he's apparently the textbook borderline DH - I think Ortiz could establish what it takes for a career DH to make the Hall. I would, however, say that Mr. Synellinden forgot Pujols when making the statement that Ortiz's stretch of dominance the last few seasons has been matched only by Bonds :^)

  10. #10
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post

    Mike Mussina will not make the Hall of Fame before Bert Blyleven. If he does, I will personally see to it that Canton goes up in flames.
    Interesting application of the Bush Doctrine.

  11. #11

    I don't care if Chipper hits with his ear

    What difference does it make that Chipper is a switch hitter? It's like suggesting that the 3d best Jewish second baseman ever should make the HOF (if there have been that many). If he's not more productive hitting from both sides than others are hitting from one side, I can't see how being a SH makes a difference. Plus you are forgetting a pretty good SH named Pete Rose in your list.

    That said, I think Chipper is on his way, although not done, nor a lock, to the HOF. A big reason is a distinction that does matter -- he played 3b. Getting that much production from a position with specialized and significant defensive requirements is very important.

  12. #12

    more hof

    Great, very complete list synell. Few others to consider:

    Trevor Hoffman: near lock
    Roy Oswalt, 29 years old, around 110 wins, with two 20 W and a 19 W season
    few marginal guys: Renteria, Damon, both with chance at 3000 H

    And the reactivated Sosa -- once Bonds goes in, do the voters accept Sosa, McGwire, Palmiero and Jason Grimsley

  13. #13
    Fred McGriff should be in just for the Tom Emanski videos

  14. #14

    The era factor

    It's going to be interesting to see how the era impacts Hall of Fame voting. We are in the midst of the greatest homer-friendly era in baseball history. It's like the '30s with high averages or the pre-WWI era with low ERAs -- the gaudy numbers are to a great degree a function of how the game is played.

    For now, it's not necessary to debate WHY this is happening -- expansion, steroids, lively ball, smaller stadiums, corked bats ... maybe it's some of all of these, but the undeniable fact is that home production soared in the early 1990s and has continued at a historically high levels.

    How does that impact the traditional HOF milestones?

    Other than the McGuire steroid controversy, Dave Kingman has the highest HR total of any HOF candidate that isn't in -- 442. He never came close. Of course, Dave Kingman is a unique case in that he brings nothing to the table except his HR total. He was a defensive liability (when he wasn't DHing). He battled .236 and didn't even walk that often (.302 OBP -- amazingly low for a slugger).

    But in the context of his times, his 442 career home runs are far more impressive than guys playing today who will hit 500-plus.

    The first real test of the modern era will be Fred McGriff (Palmero will be a test too, but he's tainted with the steroid debate). He finished with 493 home runs -- a total that would have made him a lock in any other era. Now, I agree that he's iffy. And he's going to be more iffy as more and more guys fly past 500.

    500 home runs has always been one of those magical milestones -- like 3,000 hits and 300 wins. In the past it would be unthinkable to suggest that a player with 500 home runs NOT make the Hall.

    Is that going to change?

    As far as Andruw is concerned, I think 500 is still the magic number. I agree that most of his value is concentrated it two areas -- his home runs and his defense in center. But he's not Dave Kingman ... or even Fred McGriff. If he gets to 500 home runs -- which he'll do, barring a physical collapse -- I think he'll make it.

  15. #15

    Complicating McGriff

    What makes McGriff an even more interesting case is that while his numbers are not extraordinary for this era, he probably was not availing himself of the steroids that pumped up the numbers. If that is right, how do you value a clean 493 against Palmiero's and Sosa's likely dirty 550+? If voters punish suspected abusers, do they reward the clean players? And will there be a sliding scale for cheaters -- off the charts greats like Bonds get in, but closer to the margin candidates like McGwire, Sosa, Palmiero candidates not? Is that logical?

  16. #16
    We had this debate on the old boards.

    My points were: (1) you can't separate the effects of steroids from the effects of expansion and new hitter-friendly ballparks and (2) nobody is capable of discerning exactly who was on steroids and who wasn't and when they were or weren't taking them.

  17. #17

    Upcoming votes

    Very few clear cut candidates coming up in next few years. Will be interesting to see who gets in:

    2008: Only new legit candidate is tim rainses, who has a case, but won't get in first ballot. This is perhaps last best chance for holdovers Rice (64 of required 75% last year), Gossage (64), Dawson (61), Blyleven (53). McGwire will get serious consideration down the line, but not until steroids era is better sorted out. I think Gossage will get in, Rice maybe, but not shocked if no one makes it.

    2009: Unless he unretires again, the unique Ricky Henderson is first ballot.
    2010: An interesting class of Alomar, Larkin, Edgar Martinez, McGriff. There will be diverging views that result in no first balloters except possibly Alomar, a truly great player for 14 years, looking like a HOF lock with 3000+ plus hits, many GG, and a lot of winning, who suddenly stopped producing.
    2011: Palmiero, Bagwell. A perfect template for the steroid controversy. We know Palmiero did, but how confident are you that Bagwell didn't. Bagwell is the better player, but both HOF, unless steroids are factored in.
    2012: Nobody

  18. #18
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    Braves fan as well

    Terry Pendleton, whenever he decides to leave the dugout.

  19. #19
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    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
    Mike Mussina will not make the Hall of Fame before Bert Blyleven. If he does, I will personally see to it that Canton goes up in flames.
    I hardly think that burning the football Hall of Fame would be an appropriate expression of your disappointment with a potential Mike Mussina enshrinement.

  20. #20
    Join Date
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    St. Louis

    Canton in flames

    That would be like when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.

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