Originally Posted by
Olympic Fan
Sorry to be so late in replying to this thread. I was at the game and by the time I got back, I didn't feel like rehashing it. I wanted to watch Alabama, then I got caught up switching back and forth between Southern Cal and Virginia (amazing showing by the Cavs).
Let me start by saying it was a disheartening loss. It was a game Duke could have -- and probably should have -- won. It's a loss that will be hard to make up this season.
I know it is easy to blame the defense, which did perform poorly, but we all knew that the defense would struggle. We are at a stage where many of our experienced players are not ACC level physically (Rwabukamba, Adam Banks, Patrick Egboh ... even Charlie Hatcher) and our physically talented players (August Campbell, Ross Cockrell, Tyree Glover, Justin Foxx) are too young and simply have no experience -- which leads to mistakes.
Let me focus on one guy -- Ross Cockrell. If you have the game on tape or saw it in person, try to watch his performance. Cockrell is the most physically gifted DB we have -- a 6-foot corner with sub 4.5 speed and all the agility and quickness you want in a cover guy. But he tore up a knee at the end of his high school career and was hobbled most of his redshirt year at Duke. He's playing for the first time in two years.
Against Wake, he made a couple of glaring coverage mistakes (although on one long completion, he was the victim of a blatant push-off by the Wake receiver). He also made one of the most athletic interceptions Duke has had in years ... AND led the team in tackles (he had seven solo tackles and three assists).
My point is that Ross Cockrell will be a very good ACC corner one day (if he doesn't lose his confidence). He's not one now. And that describes a lot of guys on our defense.
The point somebody made about our defense wearing down ... for the most part, that's not true. Duke rotated an awful lot of players on defense, even with so many defensive snaps. It might have been true for two guys -- DT Charlie Hatcher and S Matt Daniels, who played the great majority of snaps. Daniels, BTW, is the one legitimate combination of ACC talent and experience on our defense right now.
The complaint our our lack of strength on defense is definitely true, especially up front. I don't see how that will change this year. And it only changes next year if guys like Bryant, Bruce, Sink and Hood develop. I am very confident that our young OL prospects will be very good. I'm more skeptical about our DL prospects.
Overall, I think going in, we all knew that Wake would have some measure of success against our defense. I thought the only thing that REALLY discouraged me was the number of busts that we had the secondary. Two of their long touchdowns came on plays where the secondary flat-out lost a receiver.
Still, didn't we all know that this was going to be a high-scoring game? Didn't half the people on the pregame board predict a shootout?
As tough as the defense was to take, to my mind that wasn't what cost us the game. I expected the young defense to struggle. But I expected Duke's passing game to shred Wake's defense too.
And it did ... to the tune of 48 points and 358 yards passing. I was even pleasantly surprised by the running game -- Desmond Scott goes for 122 yards, including a 63-yard TD run? When was the last time we had a 100-yard game against an ACC opponent?
But I thought it was the offense -- more specifically the passing game -- even more specifically the receivers -- that cost us the game. I expect the young defense to give you yards and points. But I expect our receivers to catch the damn ball when it's in their hards. I've argued and bragged that we have the best group of receivers in the ACC ... but they weren't that good at Wake.
Connor Vernon was -- eight catches for 181 yards and two TDs (both over 50 yards). He was an All-American.
But Donovan Varner is just as good and yesterday he had FOUR drops, including one that bounced off his hands and was intercepted. And even though Austin Kelly had 10 catches (for 73 yards and a TD), he had THREE drops, including one that bounced off his hands and was intercepted.
Think about it. Sean Renfree was 31 of 39 against Elon with three drops. Against Wake, he was 28 of 44 with nine drops. He's completing passes at a 71 percent rate. But he's hitting his receivers at an 86 percent rate. A few drops are normal -- but 12 out of 71 potential catches? That's awful for what's supposed to be a great receiving corps.
When you go back and reconstruct the game, you have to understand that Duke wasn't going to stop Wake very often and Wake was going to struggle to stop Duke. So why did Wake win? I'd say, go back and look at the game's six turnovers:
--With Duke up 14-7, Rwabukamba intercepts a pass at the Duke 15 and returns it to the Duke 43. I would say that without the INT, Wake scores a touchdown. So that leaves Duke PLUS one TD.
-- To open the second quarter, Duke lines up for its first punt (Wake has had one). Kevin Jones lets the center snap -- not a perfect snap, but not a real bad one -- sail through his hands. Then, instead of falling on the ball (which would have at least given the defense a chance), he tries to pick ip up, leading to a Wake pickup and TD on the play. That cancels the Duke TO edge and leaves the two teams even.
-- Duke takes the ensuing KO and marches right down the field. With 1st and 10 and the Wake 21, Renfree hits Kelly on a crossing pattern at about the 15. The ball bounces off his hands and is intercepted by Wake after about three tips. That TO cost Duke a TD -- leaving Wake up one TD.
-- After the two teams score three TDs in 30 seconds of gametime, Wake is up 28-21. Duke gets the ball after their long halfback pass for a score. Duke has to start at the Wake nine after a penalty on the kickoff, but the Devils get a quick firstdown to the Wake 26. On first down, Renfree hits Varner at the Duke 44 ... the ball bounces off his hands and is intercepted and returned to the Duke 26. Two plays later, Wake scores a TD ... leaving Wake up two TO touchdowns (not even counting the fact that if Varner catches the ball, Duke has the ball near midfield and driving again).
-- On Wake's first possession of the second half, the Deacs are 3rd and 13 at their own 17. Price heaves a deep ball to Williams over the middle. He appears to be open, but Cockrell makes a great recovery and takes the ball away from him at the Duke 39. Here's the key -- the play functioned as a punt for Wake -- a 44 yard punt with no return. I would argue that it didn't impact the TD balance in the game.
-- Late in the game, down 54-41 with just over two minutes left, Renfree throws an INT on the sideline. It's the one TO that's is his fault -- the Wake DB jumped the sideline pattern. It was was more a bad read than a bad throw -- but at that point in the game, Renfree may have been desperate. Still, Duke was at the Wake 39 and driving when he threw it. That cost Duke another TD chance -- and leaves Wake up three TDs in the TO balance.
THAT is why Duke lost the game by six points -- They either gave Wake or cost themselves four TDs while Wake's two mistakes cost themselves one TD and didn't give Duke any.
As bad as the defense was, Duke's passing game should have been good enough to win it. It would have been if our quality receivers would JUST HANG ONTO THE BALL WHEN IT'S IN YOUR HANDS.
As I said, disheartening. The defense will get better as the talented young guys get experience. The improvement in the running game appears to be real. And Renfree is going to be a great one.
But whatever Duke accomplishes this year, they'll never get that game back. I fear it's going to cost us any chance of a bowl game.
PS Kudos to Alex King, the walk-on who replaced Kevin Jones, as punter. He was superb -- a 48.6 average on four punts. Even the one long punt return wasn't a case of out-kicking his coverage -- Duke's two gunners actually overran the play.