FB: Duke vs. Alabama Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[duke79]

7 big points! 49-7 final; actually it think it might be worse.

Yea, I hate to be a pessimist but I could see this being a 55-9 type of game. I truly hope I am wrong and would love to see at least a competitive game. If I were a betting man and had no allegiance to Duke, I'd be tempted to bet on Bama with the 24 point spread. The oddsmakers may actually be giving Duke a little too much credit on this game.

[sagegrouse]

Yea, I hate to be a pessimist but I could see this being a 55-9 type of game. I truly hope I am wrong and would love to see at least a competitive game. If I were a betting man and had no allegiance to Duke, I'd be tempted to bet on Bama with the 24 point spread. The oddsmakers may actually be giving Duke a little too much credit on this game.

With a 23.5 spread and an over/under of 57.5, the betting line implies a 40.5-17 final score.

I expect Duke to score more than 17.

sagegrouse

[A-Tex Devil]

With a 23.5 spread and an over/under of 57.5, the betting line implies a 40.5-17 final score.

I expect Duke to score more than 17.

sagegrouse

"Expect"? Go back and look at 'Bama's last dozen or so games. We **may** score 17 or more, but it is unlikely.

As much as everyone is leaning on our offense to keep this close, I think a closer than expected game will be because our defense plays well and forces 'Bama turnovers -- like a 28-13 type game. If we score multiple offensive touchdowns before 'Bama's backups come in, I will be very surprised and very happy.

[watzone]

Just turn out Duke fans! http://www.dukechronicle.com/article...s-crimson-tide

[Stray Gator]

"Expect"? Go back and look at 'Bama's last dozen or so games. We **may** score 17 or more, but it is unlikely.

As much as everyone is leaning on our offense to keep this close, I think a closer than expected game will be because our defense plays well and forces 'Bama turnovers -- like a 28-13 type game. If we score multiple offensive touchdowns before 'Bama's backups come in, I will be very surprised and very happy.

I wouldn't count too heavily on multiple turnovers by the Tide. Nicky is fanatical about the fundamentals; and he knows that his team is already ranked #1 and just needs to win comfortably, which he can achieve by letting his linemen on both sides do the heavy lifting. So he'll probably keep the ball primarily in the reliable hands of Richardson, while giving Ingram enough opportunities to feel the contact and ease back into game shape. Unless something unforeseen happens, I think he'll minimize the passing game to avoid exposing McElroy to the risk of unnecessary interceptions or injury. Bama's defense is not as experienced or formidable as it was last season, but it is still more talented and deep than anything Duke will likely encounter in the ACC. Unfortunately for Duke, the field should be dry and fast. I'd love to see a close match, and would be thrilled if the Blue Devils could somehow pull off the upset. But realistically, I'm expecting a final score in the 38-13 or 41-17 range.

[Vincetaylor]

I wouldn't count too heavily on multiple turnovers by the Tide. Nicky is fanatical about the fundamentals; and he knows that his team is already ranked #1 and just needs to win comfortably, which he can achieve by letting his linemen on both sides do the heavy lifting. So he'll probably keep the ball primarily in the reliable hands of Richardson, while giving Ingram enough opportunities to feel the contact and ease back into game shape. Unless something unforeseen happens, I think he'll minimize the passing game to avoid exposing McElroy to the risk of unnecessary interceptions or injury. Bama's defense is not as experienced or formidable as it was last season, but it is still more talented and deep than anything Duke will likely encounter in the ACC. Unfortunately for Duke, the field should be dry and fast. I'd love to see a close match, and would be thrilled if the Blue Devils could somehow pull off the upset. But realistically, I'm expecting a final score in the 38-13 or 41-17 range.

52-17. The tailgating will be a lot more exciting than the game itself. Football isn't like basketball where totally overmatched teams actually have a decent chance at winning. If Duke beat Alabama it would certainly be one of the biggest upsets in college football history. Not going to happen.

[calltheobvious]

I recall watching Randall Cunningham hit like a 90 year punt on a quick kick many years ago. Stunning!

--Jason "you need the right kind of QB to pull this off" Evans

That, and the diamond-hard astroturf at the late Veterans Stadium

[BlueandWhite]

I wouldn't count too heavily on multiple turnovers by the Tide. Nicky is fanatical about the fundamentals; and he knows that his team is already ranked #1 and just needs to win comfortably, which he can achieve by letting his linemen on both sides do the heavy lifting. So he'll probably keep the ball primarily in the reliable hands of Richardson, while giving Ingram enough opportunities to feel the contact and ease back into game shape. Unless something unforeseen happens, I think he'll minimize the passing game to avoid exposing McElroy to the risk of unnecessary interceptions or injury. Bama's defense is not as experienced or formidable as it was last season, but it is still more talented and deep than anything Duke will likely encounter in the ACC. Unfortunately for Duke, the field should be dry and fast. I'd love to see a close match, and would be thrilled if the Blue Devils could somehow pull off the upset. But realistically, I'm expecting a final score in the 38-13 or 41-17 range.

I, too, would be ecstatic to see Duke win, and it would be one of the great college football upsets in...the past 50 years, or more? Your statement above, however, is the key reason why Duke really can't win this game, and a reason why Duke will fall short in several other games this year, despite their excellent passing attack -- both of Alabama's lines will be able to control the line of scrimmage, in particular their O line vs. Duke's defensive front. The ONLY way I can see this game even being close is if Alabama unexpectedly has a significant (4?) number of turnovers. I do love the interview with Coach Cutcliffe saying that they're preparing to win the game, not just be in it. I love that winning attitude, and it's why Duke will soon field teams that are invited to bowl games & even field ACC title contenders.

I expect to see our passing offense to take a lot of chances and gamble, and perhaps we'll see 2-3 Duke TD's. But, we probably won't be able to stop Alabama from racking up a ton of yards on the ground and scoring a lot of points. Prediction: Alabama 52-24.

[-bdbd]

Duke keeps it thight through most of the first half, but then 'Bama's thoroughbreds begin to show their advantage, and the (more) thin Duke lines start to falter some. No shame in that as AL has among the best O-line and D-line in the business. Look for them to run it down our throats until we show we can stop them/Ingram. Or not...

Maybe 28-14 by halftime. Bama then owns the 3rd, before we score 1-2 times in the 4th during mop-up duty. While an upset is certainly always possible, I am really hoping for a respectable (not sloppy, not "small time") performance on CBS. Too bad this isn't in 2 years once Cut has further developed recruiting and performance/confidence and facillities!

[left_hook_lacey]

Just wanted to add, Scot Van Pelt just gave the Duke offense major props on his radio show. He was discussing the over/under of 17 points by Duke offense, and said that was one of the easiest picks for him to make in a long time.

"Put you're money on the Duke offense folks. They will put up more than 17 points, their offense is too goo not to. Renfree will be chucking it all over the field all day. Book it now."

Wow, I know it's a small victory, but how great is it to hear that on a nationally syndicated ESPN radio show?!

I hope he was wrong on one point though, he and his producer said that this was "theoretically" a home game for Duke, but it would be a pro-Bama crowd by far. Let's prove him wrong on that front!

Update: His producer is not as convinced, he asked how Duke would put up more than 17 when Penn State could only muster 3 points. Van Pelt responded by saying Penn State had a freshman QB that wasn't ready for that stage, and that we had a QB in Renfree is read to go on any stage.

[Bob Green]

Update: His producer is not as convinced, he asked how Duke would put up more than 17 when Penn State could only muster 3 points. Van Pelt responded by saying Penn State had a freshman QB that wasn't ready for that stage, and that we had a QB in Renfree is read to go on any stage.

I believe folks are underestimating how good are our receivers. I don't know anything about Penn State's receiving corps but I doubt they are as talented as Conner Vernon, Donovan Varner and Austin Kelly. Plus we also have depth and talent at the tight end position.

It'll be all about the offensive line giving Sean Renfree time to throw the ball. Alabama's secondary is young so if Renfree has time he will complete a lot of passes and we will score points. Coach Cutcliffe is going to mix it up to keep Alabama guessing on defense. Renfree will take quick drops and throw short passes and he will drop back and throw the ball deep. I guestimate we score more than 20 points.

Oh yeah, we might actually run the ball a couple of times though I suspect our running backs might be busy providing extra pass protection for Sean.

[left_hook_lacey]

Oh yeah, we might actually run the ball a couple of times though I suspect our running backs might be busy providing extra pass protection for Sean.

I think this is going to be key IMO. If we can handle their early blitzes, and get some yards, maybe even break a big play for a score, it will open up the playbook for us dramatically. It may take keeping the backs in the backfield to pass block as you mentioned. But if we can strike first, it will keep Bama guessing and maybe keep them back on their heels for a while. If we can do that, and then incorporate a run and screen pass here and there, it could be interesting at half-time.

Man, is it Saturday yet?!

[DU82]

I think our chance of winning tomorrow is as likely as, say, Coastal Carolina beating the 2009 National Champions in another sport. :-)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I want a Duke win tomorrow more than I've wanted anything since... oh, April?

Gotta say, I think the only way we win is in a shootout. Our defense simply doesn't have the horses to keep them in check. If we can stay close early and keep the pressure on Bama to keep scoring, anything is possible. If, on the other hand, they score on their first few possessions and we have three and outs, that lets Bama throttle back on the pace, push that ball ahead with the running game, and we are out before the end of the first quarter.

It's critical that Duke not fall behind more than one or two scores early. If the game becomes a shootout - who knows? Maybe Alabama makes a few mistakes and we take advantage.

I think a Duke win over Alabama would be bigger than the App State v. Michigan debacle. App State was recognized nationally as being a very strong team for several years. Granted, winning in Ann Arbor was an amazing overachievement, but that team had a culture of championships and winning. Duke on the other hand has won three bowls in their history and has been downright miserable for nearly two decades. Thoughts?

Make it happen!

[roywhite]

I believe folks are underestimating how good are our receivers. I don't know anything about Penn State's receiving corps but I doubt they are as talented as Conner Vernon, Donovan Varner and Austin Kelly. Plus we also have depth and talent at the tight end position.

It'll be all about the offensive line giving Sean Renfree time to throw the ball. Alabama's secondary is young so if Renfree has time he will complete a lot of passes and we will score points. Coach Cutcliffe is going to mix it up to keep Alabama guessing on defense. Renfree will take quick drops and throw short passes and he will drop back and throw the ball deep. I guestimate we score more than 20 points.

Oh yeah, we might actually run the ball a couple of times though I suspect our running backs might be busy providing extra pass protection for Sean.

Bob, I follow Penn State pretty closely and watched all of the Penn State--Alabama game. Generally speaking, Penn State has a good receiving corps (considered one of the better groups in the Big10) but had some problems in the passing game vs Alabama:

An interception in the red zone
A fumble by a receiver in the red zone
A couple key drops by veteran receivers
An inexperienced tight end (starter out due to injury) who didn't provide production

Duke's QB and receivers (including Heflet, who could be a good weapon) can and should do better than PSU did. So, key for Duke in addition to protection for the QB is to spread the ball around and not commit turnovers. My opinion is that Duke will be able to move the ball and can score, perhaps as much as 20 points or more.

[Bob Green]

Bob, I follow Penn State pretty closely and watched all of the Penn State--Alabama game. Generally speaking, Penn State has a good receiving corps (considered one of the better groups in the Big10) but had some problems in the passing game vs Alabama:

Thanks! It's going to take near perfect execution in the part of our offense but I'm really looking forward to the challenge of playing against the #1 team in the country who has the #1 ranked scoring defense in the country. Once we score some points against the Crimson Tide all the national pundits, as well as the local doubters, are going to sit up and take notice that Duke is legit.

[mkline09]

The thing that concerns me most about Alabama is not their skill players but their size up front on both sides of the ball. On offense can Duke keep the Bama front off of Renfree and give Scott some room to run? I forsee a lot of check downs and quick slants. Not sure how many opportunities Duke will have to strech the field if the line can't protect Renfree. So far they've done a good job against Elon and Wake but Alabama is a different story.

On defense the 3 or 4 man front needs to prevent a very good Alabama offensive line from dominating the line of scrimmage and allowing them to pound the ball on the ground. If Duke is to keep it close or even pull off the seemingly impossible they have to minimize the size disadvantage up front and hold their own in the trenches.